Yup. The plates seem to be shifting. Somewhat overblown hyperbole though.
Lots of interesting charts. Reference to some hedge funds making a killing shorting oil and gold in recent years is interesting. If they now have to cover those shorts, that's a headwind for those sectors.
Good link Ted (whether you agree with his conclusions or not).

Hi Guys,
Earlier today, Ted posted a Link that listed 20 best investing Blogs. Here is the internal Link to that listing:
http://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/26376/the-20-best-investing-blogs-of-2016
I am familiar with many of them, and they are useful resources. I am especially a fan of Ben Carlson’s columns. They are almost always chockfull of actionable information. His latest column is no exception. I’m surprised that Ted has not yet referenced it. So I will:
http://awealthofcommonsense.com/2015/01/updating-favorite-performance-chart/
It is Carlson’s favorite performance chart. Likewise, it is one of my favorites. Note the rather random quilt-like pattern. Good luck on recognizing a specific pattern, but general observations are possible. Carlson makes a few very relevant interpretations. I agree with his assessments. I do wish he had included an average volatility column to supplement his returns summary column.
Many alternate Periodic Tables of Investment Returns are accessible. They all provide terrific performance summaries at a glance. Here is a Link to one such Table that includes a few more years of data:
https://investment.prudential.com/util/common/get?file=1D065355D2CC360385257B7D00536F8A
This one is from Prudential Investments. Many others, like from Callan, are easily accessible. Others include Fixed Income Periodic Performance summaries. Here is a Link to a set of Tables from American Century Investments:
https://www.americancentury.com/content/dam/americancentury/ipro/pdfs/flyer/Periodic_Table.pdf
These tables include a Standard Deviation summary column. Good for them; good for us. Pick your own poison. Enjoy.
Best Regards.

FYI: Dividend mutual funds as a group lagged the S&P 500 stock index over the 10 years that ended going into Monday.
The reasons for the underperformance are worth keeping in mind whenever you make buy or sell decisions in your portfolio, particularly the diversified portion — your mutual funds and ETFs. They could boost the octane in your funds’ fuel tank.
Dividend funds lagged despite having outperformed as a group over the first half of the decade. But as the post-financial-crisis bull market picked up steam, the S&P 500 began to top dividend funds in total return.
Regards,
Ted
http://www.investors.com/etfs-and-funds/mutual-funds/did-you-see-why-the-sp-500-is-outperforming-dividend-mutual-funds/

FYI: While the major equity indexes continue to scrape and crawl their way higher in this market bounce, many of the following markets left for dead have now entered NEW bull markets: Greece, Russia, Brazil, Crude Oil, Oil Service, Energy MLPs, Gold, Metal and Miners, and even the Transports. After years of outperformance from the FANG and Momentum stocks, the market of 2016 is seeing a shift toward underperforming, highly leveraged, worst quality companies and geographies that it can find.
Regards,
Ted
http://dailyalts.com/plates-are-shifting/

I just compared the above top rated Forward Income Builder fund (AIAIX) to the fund I've been using in this space for the last 13+ years TIBIX. No thanks, I'll continue to remain oblivious.
Edited to add: I'm sure I'm missing something but it doesn't appear to be performance. I'd be thankful for any insight. FWIW, I'm not totally thrilled by the Thornburg offering as they have faltered in their objective of "income building" but I haven't been able to find or settle on a suitable alternative.

An obvious observation - TIBIX couldn't show up in the cited article, since it hasn't been around for 15 years.
What you're missing seems to be the fund's relatively poor performance through 2008 (falling further than both M*'s moderate allocation benchmark and the average world allocation fund). See this M* chart
For the chart, I used 9/30/2007 as the start date (David suggested fall 2007 as a start point, this date seemed as good as any). Over this period of time, TIBIX performed in line with AIAIX and the moderate allocation benchmark, though it significantly outpeformed world allocation funds.
It's that oversized dip that's killing it. It doesn't get brownie points for upside volatility with Sortino.
Over its lifetime, TIBIX has indeed excelled. Here's that same M* graph, stretched to lifetime.
While I'm not a fan of asking "what have you done for me lately" (e.g. YTD), I think it is fair to point out that all of that outperformance is due to the fund's first five years. Since then it has been doing well, but it's not beating a few other good funds. However, by the same token, if you throw out its 2008 performance, it again looks great.
If one is willing to live with the idea that the fund could get creamed (relatively speaking) in a bear market, it's a fine, high performing fund.

Yuh, I was struck by the plethora of "Income Builders" on the list. It turns out that there are a dozen funds bearing that designation. One is designated "global," one is designated "U.S." and the rest promise, generically, to build income
It feels like an marketing hook, akin to "strategic income" and "tactical income" from a few years back.
David

I just compared the above top rated Forward Income Builder fund (AIAIX) to the fund I've been using in this space for the last 13+ years TIBIX. No thanks, I'll continue to remain oblivious.
Edited to add: I'm sure I'm missing something but it doesn't appear to be performance. I'd be thankful for any insight. FWIW, I'm not totally thrilled by the Thornburg offering as they have faltered in their objective of "income building" but I haven't been able to find or settle on a suitable alternative.

The short version: a former Morningstar analyst ranked "balanced" funds with more than a billion in assets by their 15-year Sortino ratio. Sortino is an offshoot of the well-known Sharpe ratio, but it's more sensitive to a fund's downside deviation. By that measure, the best balanced fund is F P A Crescent.
Two quick notes:
1. a lot has changed for Crescent over the past 15 years, not least growing to 100 times their previous size. That is, from $170 million in 2002 to more than $18 billion now.
2. different parameters give different results. Lipper categorizes Crescent as a "flexible portfolio" fund, which seems more appropriate than benchmarking it against staid 60/40 funds as Morningstar does. If you look at 60/40 funds over the course of the current market cycle, which began in the fall of 2007, Crescent finishes sixth:

1. Forward Income Builder
   
2. Chicago Equity Partners Balanced
   
3. Bruce
   
4. Marsico Flexible Capital
   
5. Intrepid Capital
   
6. FPA Crescent
   
7. Provident Trust
   
8. JP Morgan Income Builder
   
9. Prudential Income Builder
   
10. Loomis Sayles Multi-Asset Income

If you sort by Martin ratio, Charles's preferred metric and the basis of our fund ratings, you get most of the same funds but Crescent pops to fourth:

1. Forward Income Builder
   
2. Intrepid Capital
   
3. Chicago Equity Partners Balanced
   
4. FPA Crescent
   
5. Provident Trust
   
6. Bruce

For what interest that holds,
David

FYI: When an ETF invests in the S&P 500 while offering less risk and a big yield, what’s not to love?
PowerShares S&P 500 High Dividend Low Volatility (SPHD) filters the iconic index for 75 companies with the highest dividend yields, then extracts 50 of those that are least volatile.
SPHD was up 5.99% this year through March 2 vs. a 2.39% loss for SPY. It has also outperformed SPY, the largest and oldest U.S. exchange traded fund, over the past three years.
Regards,
Ted
http://www.investors.com/etfs-and-funds/etfs/sp-500-etf-high-income-low-volatility-and-loads-of-investor-love/

Maybe these strategists know something that the other strategists in the past 5 - 7 years didn't.... The brilliant Ray Dalio of Bridgewater has had outsized positions in international / emerging markets for the last 7 years and they haven't budged. Because of the influence of the Modern Portfolio Theory crowd, there has been increasing pressure, over the last 10 years for investors to "go" emerging. And ETFs make it too easy for investors to attempt it ..... IMO, the domestic U.S. market is still the best and easiest to contemplate, even if it has occasional declines every 3 - 5 years ...

FYI: Go outside the ‘style box’? That worked for some funds over the past 15 years.
Regards,
Ted
http://www.wsj.com/articles/mutual-funds-rally-by-not-sticking-to-a-style-1457321007

Well we get to here his thoughts again Tuesday !
Jeffrey Gundlach (who many follow blindly because he is an expert and manages billions)
http://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/26347/another-open-mic-for-doubleline-s-jeffery-gundach-connect-the-dots-3-8-2016-webcast

Actually before I get grief about it, the Jeffrey Gundlach DoubleLine bond funds mentioned (DBLTX and DLTNX have been among the best of the best over the past 1, 3, and 5 years. And obviously had you *blindly* put your money in the trust of DoubleLine you would be sitting pretty in that bond category if a diversified portfolio is your thing. I am as eager as anyone to hear Mr. Gundlach's views on 3/8 if only to see how the markets react.

My high yield pick is PHYZX - low expenses of .58, seasoned management, and rated 5 stars by M*.

Among the better junk bond funds and wondered why it has never been on a my radar screen. Now I remember. At Scottrade where I trade it is only available to clients of registered investment advisers only. Maybe not so at other firms. Thanks for the heads up to the forum on a consistently good junk bond fund.
TSP_Transfer Appreciate your posts and keep em coming. But you know me, I never act on what I read but price and only price. But nonetheless I still read all I can on the markets if for any reason to see if there is becoming a consensus. The experts are almost wrong when there is a universal consensus are where particular markets are heading and often times I factor that into price action. Obviously the consensus is still that there is another shoe to drop in that bond category. Jeffrey Gundlach (who many follow blindly because he is an expert and manages billions) was still predicting a collapse in the junk bond market in early February just a few days before it took off on its biggest rally in years. The jury is still out on that call.

Recently started a position in ROAM ETF in addition to my position in Seafarer. Glad for the moment, we'll see...been a hammering the last few years.

I like and old FHTIX (you can find brokerages with low minimum initial investments); VWEAX and HYB. Have held many others over the years and these are the survivors.

Don't know much about the author's record. Matthew Sauer. He reports having spent nine years with Fidelity Independent Advisor (F I A). In 2014, he started a small investment advisory firm in Williamstown, Massachusetts, still home for Don Dion's F I A operation. Sauer has 46 clients and $10 million in AUM. 70% of his AUM is with a pension or profit-sharing plan.
Curiously, his "market perspectives" provide no perspectives. He simply reports a handful of datapoints: markets up, inflation in the Euro zone down, ISM up, some individual stocks up, others down.
(shrugs)
David

Summary From an article earlier this week from Seeking Alpfa looking @ E T Fs in this space
authored byFundGuru Mar. 3, 2016 8:40 AM ET
High yield bonds have performed poorly of late, despite historically delivering equity-like returns with lower volatility.
We believe the recent sell-off provides an attractive entry point for long-term investors.

Recent selloff??? Have performed poorly of late??? Junk bonds were in the midst of their largest rally in years when that article was published. They are now positive YTD.

:)
I'm looking forward to that entire category resurrecting itself out of the funk and the soup and the mud. I've held this fund for over 3 years. I believe in Andrew Foster. I like the fact that he actually knows how to COMMUNICATE. Now, then: Ready, Set, GO!. Please?

Well, this was on a beautiful summer day a few years ago; it just was striking how much nicer it all was than decades earlier. Used to go to Chicago as a kid 60y ago, and then 30y ago for tradeshows.
As someone who attended the UofR, I know what you're talking about there, too.
And as a buckeye I well remember when right at Lake Erie the Cuyahoga River caught fire and burned a bridge and actual water had to be poured on it to put it out.

Oil service stocks have had statistically significant positive outcomes in the winter and biotech in the fall. A sector model that I use, utilizes oil services, biotech, and utilities combined with a risk management heuristic. It has produced decent returns over 30 years. We will sell out of oil services on May 1.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zlgOYdATSzC7YrUE9yE_uY03sHBRTcLUVyKusqqv2tI/edit#gid=113856734