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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Rekenthaler: it's not all about the tariffs
    I think it unwise to base investment decisions on any macro read. It’s hard enough for professionals to get it right. Why should a retail investor so attempt? Here’s an (albeit extreme) example of how an early macro read based on national governance might have proven incorrect.
    “In the space of four years, Nazi Germany changed from a defeated nation, a bankrupt economy, strangled by war debt, inflation and lack of foreign capital; into full employment with the strongest economy and biggest military power in Europe.”
  • Schumer now says Democrats will support Republican funding bill to avoid shutdown
    People are already nudging an absolutely *livid* AOC to run for his seat in the Senate at the Dem retreat this week.
    Frankly, she's done a fair bit of growing up in recent years and 'calmed down' in some ways from when she first landed on the Hill as a 'novelty' ... she also tends to make more sense in her remarks/speeches now that she's seen how this town works and is much better informed, imho.
    I'm not a New York resident but I'd certainly endorse that idea.
  • The Mounting Case Against U.S. Stocks
    S&P joins the Nasdaq in correction territory today - the Nasdaq had entered correction territory last week:
    Wall Street tumbles to its first ‘correction’ since 2023 amid Trump’s escalating trade war
    Economy Mar 13, 2025
    NEW YORK (AP) — Wall Street’s sell-off hit a new low Thursday after President Donald Trump’s escalating trade war dragged the S&P 500 more than 10 percent below its record, which was set just last month.
    Payback time. VOO has averaged 17% yearly for past 5 years. And the QQQ has averaged over 22% annually over the same period. Does anyone seriously believe money grows on trees?
    Trump is the catalyst for sure, but correction overdue. S&P fell about 50% during ‘07-‘09. So anything is possible. Current S&P level is nowhere near where I’d jump into U.S. large-caps. But am keeping an eye out for other potential sector buys. Always fun observing. Sometimes the baby goes overboard with the bathwater. :)
    There are other markets. Utilities gained today. VPU is up 2.5% YTD (which would work out to a 12% annualized gain thru year end). And that’s on the heels of a 24% gain in 2024.
    Fidelity’s SPAAX (money market fund) is currently yielding 3.98%. That’s likely to continue falling in the foreseeable future. Yes - higher quality bonds have been hot, but that trend can reverse the moment longer term interest rates move higher. Fed cutting at the short end could have the opposite effect farther out.
  • Schumer now says Democrats will support Republican funding bill to avoid shutdown
    Here are edited excerpts from a statement by Senator Schumer as reported in The New York Times:
    Trump and Musk Would Love a Shutdown. We Must Not Give Them One
    Over the past two months, the United States has confronted a bitter truth: President Trump has taken a blowtorch to our country and wielded chaos like a weapon.
    Most Republicans in Congress, meanwhile, have caved to his every whim. The Grand Old Party has devolved into a crowd of Trump sycophants and MAGA radicals who seem to want to burn everything to the ground.
    As I have said many times, there are no winners in a government shutdown. But there are certainly victims. This week Democrats offered a way out: Fund the government for another month to give appropriators more time to do their jobs. Republicans rejected this proposal.
    That leads Democrats to a difficult decision: Either proceed with the bill before us or risk Mr. Trump throwing America into the chaos of a shutdown. This, in my view, is no choice at all.
    For sure, the Republican bill is a terrible option. It is deeply partisan. It doesn’t address this country’s needs. But even if the White House says differently, Mr. Trump and Elon Musk want a shutdown. We should not give them one. The risk of allowing the president to take even more power via a government shutdown is a much worse path.
    To be clear: No one on my side of the aisle wants a government shutdown. Members who support this continuing resolution do not want that. Members who oppose it do not want that. As bad as passing the continuing resolution would be, I believe a government shutdown is far worse.
    First, a shutdown would give Mr. Trump and Mr. Musk permission to destroy vital government services at a significantly faster rate than they can right now. Under a shutdown, the Trump administration would have wide-ranging authority to deem whole agencies, programs and personnel nonessential, furloughing staff members with no promise they would ever be rehired.
    Second, In a protracted shutdown, House and Senate Republicans could bring bills to the floor to reopen only their favored departments and agencies while leaving other vital services that they don’t like to languish.
    Third, shutdowns mean real pain for American families. For example, a shutdown could cause regional Veterans Affairs offices to reduce even more of their staffs, further delay benefits processing and curtail mental health services — abandoning veterans who earned, and depend on, those resources.
    A shutdown could continue to slash the administrative staffs at Social Security offices — delaying applications and benefit adjustments and forcing seniors to wait even longer for their benefits.
    A shutdown could further stall federal court cases and furlough critical staff members — denying victims and defendants alike their day in court, dragging out appeals and clogging the justice system for months or years.
    Finally, a shutdown would be the best distraction Donald Trump could ask for from his awful agenda. Right now, Mr. Trump owns the chaos in the government. He owns the chaos in the stock market. He owns the damage happening to our economy. The stock market is falling, and consumer confidence is plummeting.
    In a shutdown, we would be busy fighting with Republicans over which agencies to reopen and which to keep closed instead of debating the damage Mr. Trump’s agenda is causing.
    I believe it is my job to make the best choice for the country, to minimize the harms to the American people. Therefore, I will vote to keep the government open.
  • Barron's Revisits Pimco Income
    YBB,
    Paywall for me.
    "It’s unclear how (or, if) the Administration will calibrate policies with economic data and market signals."
    The administration is shooting for a somewhat inverted yield curve and as I see it, that is how PIMIX is positioned for. What is up with M*, showing PIMIX holdings as of Sept 30?
    I had not checked PIMIX stats in years. I did a quick check. seems like their webpage has changed quite a bit since I last checked. I had to download the Portfolio Stats spreadsheet to see some of the detail I thought I used to be able to see on their website.
    In any case, as of Feb 28, it is 85% US and UK+ Australia another 15% with Germany and Japan short. Not a whole lot of EM which surprised me. But they can have naked currency exposures which i have not yet checked. I strongly urge forum members downloading the spreadsheet and checking the details.
  • “There’s No Recession Alarm in the Collective Wisdom of Markets”
    Junk bonds are finally unraveling. Also YTD cash as in SNAXX is handily besting bank loan funds - the stars of the past couple years. Bank loan funds hold below investment grade debt. Cash is also besting the CLO ETFs both the higher rated ones such as JAAA with the lower rated ones such as JBBB which is negative on the year. JBBB had seen mid teen double digit gains in each of the past two years. Something is certainly afoot.
    Thanks. I wondered about junk bonds. Don’t track them much. I do track FKIQX (OEF) and INCM (it’s sibling ETF). Both hold a lot of junk and a lot of income producing stocks. Both seem to be unwinding in recent days. My guess is that high dividend equities are turning south along with junk.
    I wouldn’t touch JBBB after the run it had in ‘24 - even before then …
  • “There’s No Recession Alarm in the Collective Wisdom of Markets”
    Junk bonds are finally unraveling. Also YTD cash as in SNAXX is handily besting bank loan funds - the stars of the past couple years. Bank loan funds hold below investment grade debt. Cash is also besting the CLO ETFs both the higher rated ones such as JAAA with the lower rated ones such as JBBB which is negative on the year. JBBB had seen mid teen double digit gains in each of the past two years. Something is certainly afoot.
  • “There’s No Recession Alarm in the Collective Wisdom of Markets”
    I think the term “the markets” as applied to the big U.S. stock indexes is misleading. These indexes are still very pricy. But I for one don’t think that is reason to hide out in cash or short term fixed income. Some reading and study may uncover some attractive valuations. Not a fan of gold, although it’s riding the wave and may go a lot higher before it breaks. Real assets, some commodities, real estate, foreign equities (and the extra kick from FX exchanges) may be attractive. There are also funds (OEF / ETF / CEF) that try to make lemonade out of lemons playing in the long-short area. The last I looked, oil was trading at $67. A few years ago it topped $100. There’s another thread on small caps’ relative value over large. But you might need to wait 2 or 3 years for the payoff - a time frame that seems very long by present day standards (including my own).
    Far be it from me to offer investment advice. But I don’t buy the idea that there’s nowhere to invest except hiding out in cash.
    Recession? Looks like one may be in the works. But there’s no way to know for sure when it will start, how long or how severe it could be. Nor does a recession preclude making money in certain types of bonds, equities long-short or market neutral funds. . Likely, some foreign economies would hold up or prosper. And then you get into the potential “double-dip” scenario - recession / uptick / recession. You could drive yourself silly trying to predict where things might lead. Hedge funds try. Many do well at it, while others loose fortunes and shut down.
    A good motto: ”In inflation we trust.” Just as Chauncey Gardner trusted in the eventual regeneration of his garden come spring, we may trust that there will always be inflation. It’s characteristic of paper currencies. Protect your assets by investing to keep up with or outrun inflation.
  • NIH Cuts Create a Lost Generation of Scientists From Bloomberg News
    Absolutely agree! Poor policy often have significant consequences. The top talent will move overseas so they continue their research.
    This is similar to the Alzheimer diseases during Reagan administration. The stoppage paused the momentum that last many years later. Ironically, Ronald Reagan was diagnosed with early stage of Alzheimer. Some said the vice president and the cabinet ran the country during the second term as signs of decline became serious. Nancy Reagan pleaded with the medical community to find treatment for the disease, but valuable time was wasted. Reagan passed away 7 years later according to their daughter, Patty Davis.
  • EPA moves to dismantle dozens of environmental rules
    This report is being placed in "Other Investing" because the changes being described will have potentially serious impact on many aspects of the American economy.
    Following are excerpts from a current report in The Washington Post:
    The agency announced Wednesday that it will begin the process of dismantling dozens of rules for electric vehicles, power plants, clean water and more.
    In a flurry of news releases, EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin said the agency will roll back some of President Joe Biden’s most consequential climate and environmental regulations. He specifically cited rules aimed at speeding the nation’s shift to electric vehicles, slashing planet-warming emissions from power plants and safeguarding waterways from harmful pollution.
    Taken together, the announcements herald a seismic shift in U.S. environmental policy, one that could ease restrictions on nearly every sector of the economy. Yet rewriting many of the rules could take the agency months or even years.
    “Today is the most consequential day of deregulation in American history,” Zeldin wrote in an opinion piece in the Wall Street Journal on Wednesday. “We are driving a dagger through the heart of climate-change religion and ushering in America’s Golden Age.”
    Zeldin confirmed in the piece that the Trump administration will repeal a scientific finding underpinning much of the federal government’s push to combat climate change. The Washington Post first reported last month that the administration will target the “endangerment finding,” which cleared the way for regulating greenhouse gases under the Clean Air Act by concluding that the planet-warming gases pose a threat to public health and welfare.
    Environmentalists criticized the EPA’s actions Wednesday: “Corporate polluters are celebrating today because Trump’s EPA just handed them a free pass to spew unlimited climate pollution, consequences be damned,” Charles Harper, the power sector senior policy lead at the climate advocacy group Evergreen Action, said in a statement.
    Business groups cheered the moves, with coal advocates specifically praising the reconsideration of the power plant rules, which would have pushed all coal plants by 2039 to either capture their carbon dioxide emissions or shut down.
    “The standard is so extreme that it’s virtually impossible to comply with,” Ernie Thrasher, CEO of the coal supplier XCoal Energy and Resources, said in an interview. “It’s the consumers who have been strangled with regulation.”
    Note: Text emphasis was added to the above report.
  • The Mounting Case Against U.S. Stocks
    You got it. We go up to Guerneville every Friday afternoon and stop at Andy's on the way. Have done so for years. Back to SF on Monday evening, sometimes stop at Novato Costco on the way home.
  • Leuthold: current small cap valuations correlation wtih 14% forward returns
    Unfortunately, investing based on valuation have been wrong for over 10 years now.
    GMO seven year forecast from 12.31.2010 was a huge miss and so was Prof Shiller from 2012 based on PE10.
    See the above forecasts and many others.
    https://fd1000.freeforums.net/thread/13/wall-shame-worse-experts-predictions
  • The Mounting Case Against U.S. Stocks
    Eggs are not "eggs". They come in many grades and varieties. One store that we visit each week has at least six different types of eggs, varying on size, color, and feeding/living conditions of the laying chickens. The prices range from approximately $5 to $12 per dozen. This particular store happens to be in a Northern California agricultural area which has been an egg and chicken producing center for at least 100 years, so the store has local access to many types of available eggs..
    You're making me hungry. :) :) :)
    Sounds like Andy's Produce near Sebastapol, among other fine stores in Sonoma. Of course Petaluma was known as the Egg Capital of the World back in the day.
  • The Mounting Case Against U.S. Stocks
    Just looking at the big indexes (not necessarily representative of the broader market) they really haven’t fallen that much yet …
    DJI -2.61% YTD (after today)
    S&P 500 -5.26% YTD (after today)
    The high flying NASDAQ is off about 10% YTD. The Russell 2000 looks perhaps inviting, down -9.26% YTD
    Despite all the political fervor / outrage (which I agree with), the markets are coming off a couple strong years. I’m eager to put more cash to work - but not yet. Sometimes you get paid to wait.
    If anyone hasn’t noticed, consumers staples have turned up in recent months. Could be due to a long period of undervaluation. But could also be a sign of coming recession during which staples usually hold up better.
    If the 10-year rate keeps falling, mortgage rates might become briefly attractive again. Something to keep an eye on.
  • Trump says he’ll raise tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum to 50%. Or Not. Or Maybe.

    https://www.thestreet.com/automotive/uaw-president-offers-straight-talk-to-workers-on-tariffs
    the labor leader said that the country's labor force has been in crisis mode since the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) was signed and that there is "no other issue "that has affected our economy and working-class people.
    "We’re in a triage situation," Fain said on the program. "Tariffs are an attempt to stop the bleeding from the hemorrhaging of jobs in America for the last 33 years.
    Maybe go back a little further to the way uncle Ronny Ray-guns killed the unions. I recall that Joe was actually SUPPORTING unions. But the Orange Kool-Aid winos have been brainwashed to think that anything to help workers is a pinko commie plot. Meanwhile, back at the ranch, Vladimir The Righteous is calling the shots. And the NATO summit today happened without any US presence. Hmmmmmm.
  • The Mounting Case Against U.S. Stocks
    Eggs are not "eggs". They come in many grades and varieties. One store that we visit each week has at least six different types of eggs, varying on size, color, and feeding/living conditions of the laying chickens. The prices range from approximately $5 to $12 per dozen. This particular store happens to be in a Northern California agricultural area which has been an egg and chicken producing center for at least 100 years, so the store has local access to many types of available eggs.
    This could not be replicated by large grocery chains, Costco or otherwise, who need huge quantities of eggs and are therefore limited as to sources able to provide that large supply. So it's no surprise that individual smaller stores might have access to small local producers, with significant price differences because of that. Perhaps the local Kroger store has access to some local producers also. Some chains allow individual stores to purchase locally, others do not.
  • Trump says he’ll raise tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum to 50%. Or Not. Or Maybe.

    https://www.thestreet.com/automotive/uaw-president-offers-straight-talk-to-workers-on-tariffs
    the labor leader said that the country's labor force has been in crisis mode since the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) was signed and that there is "no other issue "that has affected our economy and working-class people.
    "We’re in a triage situation," Fain said on the program. "Tariffs are an attempt to stop the bleeding from the hemorrhaging of jobs in America for the last 33 years.
  • The Mounting Case Against U.S. Stocks
    @WABAC,
    The cat is out of the bag.
    Peter Navarro is on TV right now. He said "Tariffs equal to Tax cuts." If any one was waiting for it to be spelled out, now they have it.
    I haven't watched network news since Network came out. And after 25 years around marine radio traffic I stopped listening to anything but music on the radio.
    What did Navarro have to say? I'm not finding anything in print yet.
  • How reliable is the government's economic data? Under Trump, there are real concerns
    The NPR writer is apparently willfully ignorant -- or suffering from TDS -- in believing historical govt metrics are accurate.
    Inflation stats in particular have undergone a constant 'evolution' of how they are computed/reported, since at the Clinton era, and possibly before. Ditto unemployment rates. There is at least one website that has been tracking these inconsistencies for many years - www.shadowstats.com. Unfortunately, its behind a pay wall, but its commonly cited by people who have raised concerns about govt statistics, for decades now.
    The premise laid out by the NPR writer that somehow, these numbers are pure as the driven snow, until 'big bad Trump' arrived is laughable. I'm all for honest govt stats. But pretending that Trump is/will be the first to cynically manipulate data is clownish on the part of the NPR 'journalist'.
  • Ever try constructing your own “fund of funds”?
    After about 2 weeks (since February 26) the difference in performance between the etf I sold (GAA, a diversified global fund of funds with 45% equities) and the 7 CEF collection I devised is “Chump-Change”. The CEF collection has been consistently running ahead by a few dollars, but currently leads by a negligible amount. The CEF collection contains 3 equity CEFs, 3 income focused CEFs and 1 long / short CEF. I’ve traded a bit as I learned more about the potential offerings. But the basic equity / fixed income mix hasn’t changed. At this moment, both are down about 0.40% since February 26, a reflection of the emerging Trump bear market.
    Observations
    The CEF collection is much less volatile day to day.
    Obviously, fees are much higher for the CEF collection. The etf had a .37% fee.
    There is a much greater time-lag in accurate pricing for the etf. Pricing quite hard to observe accurately until day end (unless you attempt to trade it).
    As noted previously, fully exiting the etf was difficult / time consuming due to being thinly traded. Selling smaller amounts of CEFs is a breeze.
    The best time to buy CEFs was probably 2 years ago when most were trading at large discounts to NAVs. Today you need to be a lot more selective, but I think there are still some attractively priced ones if you have time to wait.
    As previously noted, CEFs respond favorably when borrowing costs (for leverage) fall. Rising rates have the opposite effect.