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Hard to disagree with any of this. You make some great points.It is very simple, I am currently not buying new equity positions or adding to any existing positions at these high P/E multiples. I have been rebalancing my portfolio as the stock markets reaches new highs thus keeping equities towards their low range within my asset allocation. Should we get a near term pullback I'll load equities during the pullback and then trim my allocation in equities as they recover.
Interesting choice. It looks like you've highlighted the key difference between the two funds. Though I might add that as a consequence, DBLFX's broad allocations (government, corporate, securitized) hew much more closely to that of the typical fund.
It may come down to what you think of Treasuries. Bogle is not a lover of Treasuries, having stated that the index is too heavily weighted that way. On the other hand, Buffett has suggested that his heir divide investments between an S&P 500 index fund and short term Treasuries.
Personally, I prefer underweighting. Long term treasuries are IMHO only good for speculating on interest rates (1/6 of DBLTX's mature in over 25 years). Short term, and currently intermediate, Treasuries yield so little that they're effectively cash. (They yield as little or less than an individual investor could get insured in a bank account.)
Also, when I buy an actively managed fund, I look for a fund where the managers take positions that deviate significantly from the herd. Maybe Gundlach has with this fund; all I'm looking at is the current snapshot in time. He certainly does go his own way with some of his funds.
Disclaimer: I think that he is very sharp, though not as sharp as he thinks himself. So I expect this fund to be well managed and worth owning. Beyond that I can't say.
Thanks, but I'll take BCOIX over this fund.
Nearly identical in most metrics (duration, credit quality, credit breakdown, number of bonds/bonds in top 10%, country breakdown). TIORX is long and short in cash, but with same net cash as BCOIX (no shorts).
Differences that pop out include:
- TIORX has more securitized bonds and less corporate (as discussed in article)
- TIORX has high turnover (308%, mentioned in article) vs. 34%
- TIORX costs twice as much (0.62% vs. 0.30%)
- TIORX has lower SEC yield (2.31% vs. 2.61%)
With the notable exception of 2008, BCOIX generally outperforms. In 2008 it underperformed by 4.64%, but made that up and more with its 2009 9.08% outperformance. In all other recent years, performance figures were much closer.
It is fair to look back this far, as BCOIX's management started in 2000. Though the article implies that Higgins (starting in 2011) is the only manager of TIORX, the prospectus says: "The following persons manage the Fund on a day-to-day basis: ...Higgins ... since 2011 [and] ... Cerra ... since 2003." Both are listed as "Managing Directors". Neither the prospectus nor M* says anything about 13 managers.
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