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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • BONDS, HIATUS ..... March 24, 2023
    'Herding Cats'. In my mind, I envision perhaps 12 pieces of data that is the most important for the FED; but is also difficult to pin down for a given time frame and the FED 'watch'; to guide the economy. So, at times; the task is likely to resemble attempting to 'herd cats'.
    My overall quick take on the FOMC discussion period this week was a 'new' soft touch version. The first 15 minutes were 'normal' talk, the second 15 minutes were 'relaxed', a kind of 'we're going to be nice and do no harm. Disinflation was uttered by Mr. Powell.
    --- Wednesday, A bond love-fest, by those so inclined, after 2:30pm FOMC Q&A. Pricing rose nicely in many bond sectors.
    --- Friday. HOT! HOT! HOT! Employment: January payrolls increase 517,000 versus estimate of 188,000. This isn't a data entry error, is it? January unemployment rate falls to 3.4%, a rate last seen in 1969. January average hourly wages, +.3%. AND of course, the bond folks gave back a lot of the Wednesday love.
    --- disinflation v. deflation
    Deflation means prices are falling and the inflation rate is in the negative, while disinflation means a slowdown in the rate of inflation while still remaining in the positive. Disinflation occurs more commonly than deflation.
    Note: On the disinflation front.....reported that chicken wings and avocado prices are down about 22% YTD; and before the Super Bowl parties, too. Big move !!! I have not verified this locally.
    --- U.S.$ UP 1.22% on Friday, for a +1.02% for the week.
    The Money Market thing. FZDXX and two other Fido core MM's will be receiving yield bumps, although FZDXX usually leads first. 'Course, this comes from the Fed. Funds rate hike. I'm anticipating a 4.6% yield within the next week or so; and likely that MM yields will be at 5% or more in the summer. Other investment houses will provide similar yields.
    *** See FOMC thread from Wednesday and current 'Real Yield' for other bond related information.
    My non-qualified quick overview: Mr. Powell would have had a different tone, during the FOMC Q&A, if the employment/labor info was released Wednesday morning. Most bond sectors, although positive for the week, gave back a lot of gains on Friday, some at -1% for the day. 'Course, profit taking should be expected, regardless of financial health reports. TIPS funds did not find love by the end of this week. Common core MM's at fund companies may find a yield of 4.5% this summer.
    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    NOTE; An excellent request was presented to add more important bond sectors to the list. The new adds are included below.
    ---Several selected bond funds returns since October 25, 2022. I'll retain this date, as it is a recent inflection point when bonds began to have positive price moves. We'll need to watch if this was just a 'blip'.
    NOTE: I've kept the prior dated reports in the beginning of this thread; and have added YTD to this data.
    For the WEEK/YTD, NAV price changes, January 30 - Febuary 3, 2023
    ***** This week (Friday), FZDXX, MMKT yield moved a bit to 4.33% . The core Fidelity MMKT's have continued a slow creep upward to 4.04%. The holdings of these different funds account for the variances at this time.
    --- AGG = -.02% / +3.17% (I-Shares Core bond), a benchmark, (AAA-BBB holdings)
    --- MINT = +.16% / +.94% (PIMCO Enhanced short maturity, AAA-BBB rated)
    --- SHY = -.1% / +.59% (UST 1-3 yr bills)
    --- IEI = -.12% / +1.84% (UST 3-7 yr notes/bonds)
    --- IEF = -.21% / +3.16% (UST 7-10 yr bonds)
    --- TIP = -.85% / +1.66% (UST Tips, 3-10 yrs duration, some 20+ yr duration)
    --- VTIP = -.3% / +.56% (Vanguard Short-Term Infl-Prot Secs ETF)
    --- STPZ = -.32% / +.6% (UST, short duration TIPs bonds, PIMCO)
    --- LTPZ = -2.6% / +4.7% (UST, long duration TIPs bonds, PIMCO)
    --- TLT = +.25% / +7.4% (I Shares 20+ Yr UST Bond
    --- EDV = +.48% / +10.4% (UST Vanguard extended duration bonds)
    --- ZROZ = +.74 / +10.9% (UST., AAA, long duration zero coupon bonds, PIMCO
    --- TBT = -.4% / -13.5% (ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (about 23 holdings)
    --- TMF = +.22% / +21.3% (Direxion Daily 20+ Yr Trsy Bull 3X ETF (about a 3x version of EDV etf)
    *** Additional important bond sectors, for reference:
    --- BAGIX = +.2% / +3.23% (active managed, plain vanilla, high quality bond fund)
    --- LQD = -.05% / +4.81% (I Shares IG, corp. bonds)
    --- BKLN = +.47% / +3.67% (Invesco Senior Loan, Corp. rated BB & lower)
    --- HYG = -.01% / +3.44% (high yield bonds, proxy ETF)
    --- HYD = +.4 /+4.27% (VanEck HY Muni
    --- MUB = +.12 /+2.45 (I Shares, National Muni Bond)
    --- EMB = +.02 /+4.77% (I Shares, USD, Emerging Markets Bond)
    --- CWB = +1.2 / +7.5% (SPDR Bloomberg Convertible Securities)
    --- PFF = +.76 / +10.2% (I Shares, Preferred & Income Securities)
    --- FZDXX = 4.33% yield (7 day), Fidelity Premium MMKT fund
    *** FZDXX yield was .11%, April,2022. The rate of rise began an upward path again on Friday (Feb. 3).

    Comments and corrections, please.
    Remain curious,
    Catch
  • M-Mkt Funds Dropping Fee-Waivers/ER-Caps
    There are some Barron’s stories that are online and meant for Barron’s financial advisor channel. This is one of them, so it won’t appear in the magazine. But basically the premise is correct that fee waivers at Vanguard have disappeared because interest rates have gone up. What the story also looks at is how Vanguard paid for those waivers as it is ostensibly an “at-cost” manager which has no extraneous operational costs. At competitors like Schwab and Fidelity they waive fees by reducing some of their profits. During zero rate environments, they see money market funds as loss leaders to get investors into other profitable products. But Vanguard says it has no profits to reduce. So, how did it pay for the waivers on products that can’t cover their own costs themselves when rates are zero? Vanguard also doesn’t call them waivers but “expense limitations.”
  • T. Rowe Price Emerging Europe Fund to close to all investors
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/313212/000174177323000146/c497.htm
    497 1 c497.htm EEM STAT AND SUM STICKER 2.2.23
    T. Rowe Price Emerging Europe Fund
    Supplement to Prospectus and Summary Prospectus dated March 1, 2022, as supplemented
    Effective Friday, February 17, 2023, the T. Rowe Price Emerging Europe Fund will close to all purchases. Accordingly, the summary prospectus and prospectus are updated as follows:
    In the summary prospectus and section 1 of the prospectus, the disclosure under “Purchase and Sale of Fund Shares” is supplemented as follows:
    Effective at the close of the New York Stock Exchange on Friday, February 17, 2023, the fund will close to all purchases from new and existing shareholders.
    Section 2 of the prospectus is supplemented as follows:
    CLOSED TO NEW PURCHASES
    Currently, the fund is generally closed to new investors and new accounts, subject to certain exceptions. Effective at the close of the New York Stock Exchange on Friday, February 17, 2023, the fund will close to all purchases from new and existing shareholders. After February 17, 2023, even investors who already hold shares of the fund either directly with T. Rowe Price or through a retirement plan or financial intermediary may no longer purchase additional shares.
    Shareholders with existing accounts may reinvest dividends and capital gains so long as they own shares of the fund in their account. In addition, the fund reserves the right, when in the judgment of T. Rowe Price it is not adverse to the fund’s interests, to permit certain types of purchases. The fund’s closure to additional purchases does not restrict existing shareholders from redeeming shares of the fund.
    The date of this supplement is February 2, 2023.
    F131-043 2/2/23
  • FOMC Statement, 2/1/23
    Notes from FOMC Statements & Powell's Presser
    Fed funds rate hikes +25 bps to 4.50-4.75%; (bank) reserve balance rate 4.65%; discount rate 4.75%; gradual rate hikes with at least "a couple more" hikes. Wait to see the FOMC Minutes for discussions related to pause/pivot. The QT continues at -$60 billion/mo for Treasuries and -$35 billion/mo for MBS (total QT -$95 billion/mo).
    Financial conditions remain restrictive. Stock and bond markets are just one factor. The Fed and the bond market differ on how fast the inflation will be coming down. The Fed thinks that we are far from +2% average inflation target as PCE is +5.0, core PCE +4.4%. Price declines are visible in goods, but not in services yet. Housing has weakened, but the labor market and wage growth remain strong. Covid-19 is no longer seen as an economic risk.
    Debt-ceiling must be raise timely to prevent chaos; the Fed is an agent of the Treasury and cannot protect from consequences of failure; there is no coordination with the ongoing QT.
    State and local governments are flushed with cash and those projects may contribute to economic activity.
    Overtightening is preferred over under-tightening.
    Soft landing is possible and recession may be avoided.
    In the market actions that I kept an eye on, the stock market was strong and in the bond market, all Treasury rates fell (on a day of Fed rate hike announcement).
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/thread/158/fomc-statements-6-7-weeks?page=2&scrollTo=918
  • Secure Act 2.0 rewind, Age 72 b-day in 2023 receives a one year RMD deferral
    The Secure Act 2.0 has been discussed here, but during the busy holiday period; so I'm placing this review.
    In particular, for my emphasis, the immediate below for IRA RMD's. While you or yours may not turn 72 in 2023, you may know someone who is.....so, pass this along, as many are unlikely aware of the change for RMD's. The link below reviews Secure Act, 2.0.
    *** The age at which owners of retirement accounts must start taking RMD's will increase to 73, starting January 1, 2023. The current age to begin taking RMDs is 72, so individuals will have an additional year to delay taking a mandatory withdrawal of deferred savings from their retirement accounts. Two important things to think about: If you turned 72 in 2022 or earlier, you will need to continue taking RMDs as scheduled. If you're turning 72 in 2023 and have already scheduled your withdrawal, you may want to consider updating your withdrawal plan.
    Review of Secure Act 2.0 legislation passed in December, 2022. Note: One may reject 'all cookies' and still read the article.
    Remain curious,
    Catch
  • media economy coverage
    "Do you look at the posts by category? "
    Absolutely. I keep two permanent tabs on my browser...
    https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussions/discussionsplus
    https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/categories/off-topic
    ... and select whichever I'm interested in. Years ago there was such dissension among MFO posters because of the extreme intrusion of political comments and agendas that the "Off-Topic" section was deliberately "sealed off" from the investment sections so that the posters who come to MFO strictly for financial information are not constantly looking at political controversy.
    I believe that my social credentials are not exactly a secret here. Lifelong Democrat, West Coast center-left, totally repulsed by whatever remains of a once legitimate Republican party. And yes, at times I too cross the line in my posting. But I do respect the guidelines set out by David Snowball years ago, and believe that all of us have a responsibility to do that.
    To continuously disrespect those guidelines, saying whatever we want, wherever we want, only emulates the behavior of the Trumpian Republicans and leads to the continued destruction of the social fabric.
  • Jittery Investors Turn to Cash in Hunt for Yield - WSJ
    ”The dash for cash on Wall Street is back on. Investors have added about $135 billion to global money-market funds over the past four weeks … through Jan. 18. That is the best stretch since the four-week period ended May 2020, when those funds logged roughly $175 billion in net inflows …
    “Increased cash allocations are the latest sign of caution among investors who are questioning whether the recent rebound in stocks and bonds will continue … The average return on U.S. money-market funds this month is 4.12%, the highest yield since the 2008 financial crisis … The S&P 500, on the other hand, has a dividend yield of about 1.6%.”

    By the end of December, assets sitting in money-market funds hit a record $5.18 trillion … That surpassed the previous high of $5.16 trillion from May 2020 … In December, individual investors slightly lowered the share of cash in their portfolios to about 21.8%, below the historical average of roughly 22.5% … The reading still marks one of the highest levels since May 2020. In comparison, stock and stock fund allocations are at about 63.9%, above the historical average of around 61.5%.
    Excerpted from: The Wall Street Journal (Print Edition) January 26, 2023 (Narrative edited for brevity. Attribution to data sources omitted for brevity).
    You’ll likely need a WSJ subscription to access story online.
  • media economy coverage
    University auxiliary services (bookstores, dorms, dining halls, gyms, sports, stadiums, etc) have their own operating budgets and are not part of the academic budgets (tuition, faculty/staff salaries).
    Public university tuitions have gone up because state supports have declined significantly. At my university, state support was about 70-80% when I started, but only 10-15% by the time I retired. Some joked that we could stop using the state's name and be free but the explanation was that it wasn't simple - as land-grant university, we got lot of land, and buildings that were from separate capital budgets, and it would be impossible to pay for those.
    In as much as out-of-state tuitions are attractive to universities, several have strict limits on nonstate enrollments. This is because for each nonstate student admitted, there may be a qualifying state student not admitted.
    Private university tuitions are going up because many rich folks are willing to pay for the name and prestige; but lot of students get financial aid (via scholarships, grants, loans, campus work) and their effective tuition may be about half the listed tuitions.
    Community colleges/2-yr colleges are mostly funded locally (property taxes, etc); there is some state funding too. Often, one has to a resident in the district to qualify for low tuition.
  • media economy coverage
    While I have my own issues with student loan forgiveness, I can understand the perspective of Millennials and Gen Zs who think it’s hypocritical that many in the older generation were perfectly fine with two massive government taxpayer funded bailouts of financial markets in 2008-09 and 2020 in which the younger generations have little invested because in part they are laden with student debt. Not to mention the fact that in some cases I imagine they are indebted to the very banks that were bailed out with taxpayer dollars in 2009. That is on top of the bailouts “small businesses” got in 2020, which the government defines as any company with less than 500 employees—many large companies qualified.
    And finally, the cost of tuition is astonishing today even at public universities, when the older generations had much more affordable educations. The average cost of attendance for a student living on campus at a public 4-year in-state institution is $25,707 per year or $102,828 over 4 years. Out-of-state students pay $43,421 per year or $173,684 over 4 years. Private, nonprofit university students pay $54,501 per year or $218,004 over 4 years. This in a country where tuition at public universities was once exceedingly low and in certain cases free. It is also true that it is extremely difficult for anyone to have a middle class life today without a college degree when this was not the case in earlier generations. Well-paying Industrial blue collar jobs that don’t require a degree have largely disappeared in 2023. So kids have to go to college and they end up in debt because of it.
  • media economy coverage
    Since this thread is apparently open for politics here goes.
    As distressing as the inflation in the US is, it is far worse in Europe and many other countries. That cannot be blamed on Biden. This is a worldwide phenomena. I tend to believe the one stimulus passed under Biden was too much. Without it, the Democrats could have blamed all the inflation on Trump policies. I guess they thought it was still necessary.
    An overlooked feature of the Chips act is the massive investment in Red States and jobs that do not require college.
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/bidens-green-subsidies-are-attracting-billions-of-dollars-to-red-states-11674488426
    https://www.brookings.edu/research/with-high-tech-manufacturing-plants-promising-good-jobs-in-ohio-workforce-developers-race-to-get-ready/
    I have read a lot of the 1619 project and object strongly to it's thesis that the American Revolution was fought to protect slavery. This distortion has been widely criticized by professional historians. The NYT is actively promoting 1619 for high school curricula although none of it's authors are historians, and I object to that as strongly as I object to the continuously right wing WSJ editorials.
    On the other hand I can understand some of the criticism in Florida of the Advanced Placement African-American curriculum if, in it's final section, it really does focus on "intersectionalism", black queerness, and demand reparations, without any other perspectives.
    I am generally a lifetime Democrat and strongly support helping people get ahead. To me this means safe neighborhoods and workplaces, laws controlling buildings and roads, decent public schools and rewarding someone financially for a job well done with advancement. Leaving all of these to the private sector, without regulation, is a proven disaster
    I do agree that the Government should cost as little as possible and there are many things the private sector does better, and there are many things people should pay for themselves, if they alone are to benefit. Building sports stadiums come to mind. I do not think the Government should shower benefits on one group or company exclusively if they are not available to everyone and increase our taxes to pay for it.
    Bernie was right to focus on the massive wealth accumulation that investment, side deals and other benefits Federal laws allowed to happen . But his demand that I help pay off all student loans goes to far.
    I do think people with adequate resources should pay the full price for their kids education, and these people should not get their student loans forgiven. However, when the government twists the regulations for private for profit "colleges", to allow their owners to get very rich, under a woman whose family, already billionaires, personally benefits from these regulations ( DeVoes), there is a moral duty to deal with the financial disaster that these regulations caused in students lives.
  • Debt Ceiling and US Treasury Investments
    "Two feet of snow, slush and ice here on top of frozen soil and heading 10 degrees below zero (F) for the next several days. … I do have plenty of good reds, firewood, and stacks of books available.
    @Mark - Sounds like a living hell out there. Some music to ease the pain ….
    Road to Hell
    -
    @LewisBraham - Thanks for the above post. Much appreciated. A default on its debt by the largest superpower (and financial center) in the world would have many ramifications - some probably not yet imagined. Like I said elsewhere, the FX (foreign currency exchanges) would be a nightmare on the morning after. (Sorry for the apparent oxymoron)
  • Debt Ceiling and US Treasury Investments
    For those who think their FDIC-insured bank accounts/CDs would be safe in the event of a Treasury bond default: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/USGSEC
    Things would be OK perhaps in the short-term if it's just a missed Treasury payment--a technical default- but not in the long-term for any extended standoff and collapse. The whole system is built on the "risk-free" rate of Treasuries, lives or dies with it. Banks own $4.4 trillion in government debt. And yes, it is a political issue. The extremists' goal of this standoff is to destroy the social safety net, cut Food Stamps, welfare, unemployment benefits, Medicaid and, in the long-term, Social Security and Medicare. And so the fate of T-Bill and Treasury bond holders, the U.S. dollar, and our entire financial system is wrapped up with this debate.
    Meanwhile, the idea that the FDIC because it is financed by banks and not the government can save all the banks that would go bust in an extended default is wrong. The FDIC depends on the Deposit Insurance Fund--https://investopedia.com/terms/d/deposit-insurance-fund.asp--to bail out banks. As of the FDIC's last 2021 annual report issued in April of 2022--https://fdic.gov/about/financial-reports/reports/2021annualreport/2021-arfinal.pdf--the insurance fund had $115 billion set aside to bail out banks. That's good for a few banks, not for an entire financial system in disrepair. Even worse, what is the Deposit Insurance Fund invested in? Treasury bonds! See page 133 of the annual report.
    If we miss a T-bill/Treasury payment because of our government being held hostage, the world will survive. But going over the edge into a serious government bankruptcy would be end times for the capital markets. Nor am I trying to be alarmist. In fact, this scenario makes me almost positive the situation won't get any further than brinkmanship and everything for wealthy T-Bill/Treasury-bond holders--and every other investor in the financial food chain--will be fine. And even if the extremists kept pushing, the 14th amendment will be invoked: https://newrepublic.com/article/169857/debt-ceiling-law-terminate-constitution A missed payment and the volatility that will result because of it will be a buying opportunity. Meanwhile, some awful concession will be made regarding the safety net for America's poorest most vulnerable citizens--politics in the extreme.
  • Jeremy "The Bear" Grantham
    https://www.gmo.com/americas/research-library/after-a-timeout-back-to-the-meat-grinder_viewpoints/
    you may have to register to read it but always worthwhile.
    " Continued economic and financial problems are likely. I believe they could be dire"
    SP500 3200 end of 2023. Will probably dip further sometime this year.
    He believes the peak in 2021 was one of the classic bubbles in history like 1929 2000 and 2006 and most of the decline could be after the first rate cut.
    There is also a link to his recent interview about Climate Change
  • Debt Ceiling and US Treasury Investments
    This (delete) rhetoric goes back at least to the (delete) beginning 50s or 60s. Subscribed to (the then very excellent) U.S. News & World Report as a teen - always enjoying reading of current events. So, the “can’t run a household this way” refrain goes back at least (delete) to the 50s and 60s. Truth is … A nation that prints its own currency and backs it with full faith and credit is much different than a household. That’s not to say it doesn’t have to practice good financial policies - just to say the two situations are dissimilar.
    Now, despite these dire warnings of economic doom (delete) over the past 60 years, the nation has done pretty well over those decades, whether measured by the strength of our corporations and financial giants, scientific achievements or numbers of less fortunate in other countries who would like to live and work here. And, the USD is still the envy of most any other nation that issues a currency. So, let’s cool the rhetoric and get on with governing.
    (Delete) Getting back to the “household” analogy. Can households raise armies and go to war? Are they charged with building and maintaining public highways, bridges, airports, seaports and schools? Do they / can they provide subsistence level services for the poor and needy or render emergency relief unto those whose lives have been devastated by fire or flood? The differences are stark - and too numerous to even quantify.
  • Default Denialism is real
    @larryB To me, the Boglehead policy of not alowing any connection to be made between investing/money and politics is the equivalent of don't-ask-don't-tell in the military or don't-say-gay in Florida. There are definitely politics in the investment world, and the investment world is very much in politics--see any number of lobbyists working for financiers/money managers--but there is this pretense that the investment activity itself is apolitical.
    Ironically, denying there is any connection between money and politics is intensely political just as denying that there are gay people in the military or Florida whose voices need to be heard is. A Don't-Say-Politics policy is endorsing a belief in the pursuit of financial profit by any means necessary regardless of that pursuit's impact on employees, consumers, nation states such as America, humanity and the planet's ecosystem. It's pretending life is all profit numbers and there aren't flesh-and-blood people--employees and consumers--producing the profits much like an abstract physics problem which pretends anything falling is falling in a frictionless fictional world.
  • Default Denialism is real
    I don't think it will get that bad, but if it did get that bad, that would be the place to hide. I think the irrationalism we are observing in Congress with one party is always like the human equivalent of "other people's money" in the financial world. Only in the case of politics, it's other people's lives. Moaning about critical race theory or the border or zygote's rights in no way affects the pocketbooks of the party leaders. So, for instance undocumented immigrants are easy targets with little to no downside politically, and considerable upside in terms of votes from their base. But putting the country in default will dramatically affect these politicians' pocketbooks. I don't think they will do it, and what seems irrational to us on those other human, i.e., "social issues" is completely rational to them from the perspective of pandering to their base and their financial backers. It is rational irrationality when all you care about is winning and lining your pocketbook even if it is absurd and cruel to everyone else.
  • Invesco International Core Equity Fund to be liquidated
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/880859/000110465923005890/tm233916d2_497k.htm
    SUPPLEMENT DATED JANUARY 23, 2023 TO THE CURRENT
    SUMMARY AND STATUTORY PROSPECTUSES AND STATEMENT OF ADDITIONAL INFORMATION FOR:
    Invesco International Core Equity Fund
    (the “Fund”)
    This supplement amends the Summary and Statutory Prospectuses and Statement of Additional Information (“SAI”) of the above referenced Fund and is in addition to any other supplement(s), unless otherwise specified. You should read this supplement in conjunction with the Summary and Statutory Prospectuses and SAI and retain it for future reference.
    On January 19, 2023, the Board of Trustees of AIM International Mutual Funds (Invesco International Mutual Funds) (the “Board”) approved a Plan of Liquidation and Dissolution (the “Plan”), which authorizes the termination, liquidation and dissolution of the Fund. In order to effect such liquidation, the Fund will close to investments by new accounts after the close of business on February 24, 2023. Existing shareholders will continue to be able to invest in the Fund until the close of business on or about April 10, 2023 when no further purchases or exchanges into the Fund will be accepted as the Fund prepares for liquidation on or about April 24, 2023 (the “Liquidation Date”) as described below. The liquidation may occur sooner if at any time before the Liquidation Date there are no shares outstanding in the Fund. The liquidation may also be delayed or occur sooner if unforeseen circumstances arise. Shareholders of the Fund may redeem their shares at any time prior to the Liquidation Date. The Fund reserves the right, in its discretion, to modify the extent to which sales of shares are limited prior to the Liquidation Date.
    To prepare for the closing and liquidation of the Fund, the Fund’s portfolio managers may increase the Fund’s assets held in cash and similar instruments in order to pay for Fund expenses and meet redemption requests. As a result, the Fund may deviate from its stated investment strategies and policies and may no longer be managed to meet its investment objective. On or promptly after the Liquidation Date, the Fund will make a liquidating distribution to each remaining shareholder equal to the shareholder’s proportionate interest in the net assets of the Fund, in complete redemption and cancellation of the Fund’s shares held by the shareholder, and the Fund will be dissolved. If necessary, the Fund will declare and pay a dividend to distribute to its shareholders all of the Fund’s remaining investment company taxable income, if any, and all of the Fund’s net capital gain, if any (after reduction for any capital loss carry-forward) and any additional amounts necessary to avoid any excise tax. Alternatively, the Fund may, if eligible, treat some or all of such amounts distributed to its shareholders as being paid out as dividends as part of the liquidating distributions. The Fund’s liquidation may be a taxable event to its shareholders. Please consult your tax advisor about the potential tax consequences.
    At any time prior to the Liquidation Date, shareholders may redeem their shares of the Fund pursuant to the procedures set forth in the prospectus under “Redeeming Shares,” as it may be supplemented. Contingent deferred sales charges will be waived in connection with any redemptions prior to the Liquidation Date. Shareholders who wish to avoid being liquidated out of the Fund altogether may also exchange their shares prior to the Liquidation Date for shares of another Invesco fund, subject to minimum investment account requirements and other restrictions on exchanges as described in the prospectus under “Exchanging Shares,” as it may be supplemented. Any such redemption or exchange of Fund shares for shares of another Invesco fund, as eligible, will generally be considered a taxable event for federal income tax purposes, except for exchanges in a tax-advantaged retirement plan or account. Shareholders who hold their shares in the Fund through financial intermediaries should contact their financial representatives to discuss their options with respect to the liquidation and the distribution of their redemption proceeds...
  • Hartford Schroders Securitized Income Fund to be liquidated
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49905/000119312523012796/d440160d497.htm
    497 1 d440160d497.htm HARTFORD MUTUAL FUNDS II INC
    JANUARY 23, 2023
    SUPPLEMENT TO THE FOLLOWING PROSPECTUSES:
    HARTFORD SCHRODERS SECURITIZED INCOME FUND SUMMARY PROSPECTUS
    DATED MARCH 1, 2022
    HARTFORD SCHRODERS FUNDS PROSPECTUS
    DATED MARCH 1, 2022, AS SUPPLEMENTED TO DATE
    This Supplement contains new and additional information regarding Hartford Schroders Securitized Income Fund and should be read in connection with your Summary Prospectus and Statutory Prospectus.
    On or about February 28, 2023 (the “Liquidation Date”), Hartford Schroders Securitized Income Fund (the “Fund”), a series of The Hartford Mutual Funds II, Inc. (the “Company”), will be liquidated (the “Liquidation”).
    SUSPENSION OF SALES. The Fund is instructing its transfer agent, other service providers, and financial intermediaries to no longer accept any account applications or purchase orders from new investors effective no later than the close of business on January 31, 2023. Accordingly, the Fund will be closed to all new investors on or before that date.
    Until the close of business on February 21, 2023, the Fund will remain open to retirement plans and shareholders currently invested in the Fund. After that date, the Fund will no longer accept any purchase orders and will no longer be available for automatic investments (other than dividend reinvestments). Prior to the Liquidation Date, retirement plans and shareholders currently invested in the Fund may continue to reinvest dividends and capital gain distributions in the Fund.
    At any time prior to the Liquidation Date, the Fund may, in the Fund’s discretion, reject any purchase orders for any reason, including for operational reasons relating to the Liquidation of the Fund.
    LIQUIDATION OF ASSETS. To prepare for the Liquidation, it is anticipated that the Fund will depart from its stated investment objective and policies as it prepares to distribute its assets to investors. It is anticipated that the Fund’s sub-adviser will increase the portion of the Fund’s assets held in cash and similar investments and reduce maturities of non-cash investments in order to prepare for orderly liquidation and to meet anticipated redemption requests. As a result, the Fund’s portfolio may consist of all or substantially all cash or cash equivalents prior to the Liquidation Date, which may adversely affect the Fund’s performance. From the date of this Supplement, the Fund may invest all or a substantial portion of its assets in cash or cash equivalents. The impending liquidation of the Fund may result in large redemptions, which could adversely affect the Fund’s expense ratios, although existing expense limitations are expected to be maintained.
    In connection with the Liquidation, any shares of the Fund outstanding on the Liquidation Date will automatically be redeemed by the Fund as of the Liquidation Date (except as noted below for qualified accounts that were opened directly with the Hartford Funds). The proceeds of any such redemption will be equal to the net asset value of such shares after all charges, taxes, expenses and liabilities of the Fund have been paid or provided for. The distribution to shareholders of the Liquidation proceeds will occur on the Liquidation Date, and will be made to all shareholders of record as of the close of business on the business day preceding the Liquidation Date, other than as disclosed below. The Fund’s investment manager, Hartford Funds Management Company, LLC (“HFMC”), will bear all expenses associated with the Liquidation to the extent such expenses exceed the amount of the Fund’s normal and customary fees and operating expenses. However, the Fund and its shareholders will bear transaction costs associated with the sale of the Fund’s holdings prior to Liquidation...
  • Debt Ceiling and US Treasury Investments
    @davidrmoran I don't quite get the debt-to-GDP fixation. To me, as a country matures as first a developing, then a developed nation, it makes sense that GDP slows and more of its citizens financial wherewithal is in assets like stocks, bonds and real estate as opposed to income from GDP production. Developed nations are starting from a high GDP production base--the law of large numbers applies to their growth--and they generally have older populations who are less productive as they retire. The older populations stem from better healthcare as well as the fact that education comes with development and women have less children as a result. Thus, the workforce ages and GDP growth slows. So, I don't understand why the debt-to-GDP ratio is so significant when the wealthiest Americans have so much accumulated non-GDP producing wealth that is largely untaxed or taxed at a much lower rate than income. In short, America needs a real wealth tax to pay down its debt. Yet there are obvious political problems with getting such a tax passed: https://npr.org/2021/11/13/1054711913/progressives-wealth-tax-super-rich-elon-musk-jeff-bezos What could work is some sort of tax treaty that bars any sort of tax shelters between trading partners globally so there can be no skipping town once a wealth tax is imposed.
  • Seafarer Funds’ China Analysis
    @LewisBraham,
    Several Morningstar articles had mentioned the use of quantitative research for DODEX.
    "Dodge & Cox isn’t normally associated with quantitative work, but quant analysis can serve fundamental strategies just as well as tactical trading strategies. Robert Turley, who holds a doctorate in business economics, has had a big impact on the firm’s quantitative and risk management work. He’s one of six named managers on Dodge & Cox Emerging Markets Stock (DODEX). This fund has made quantitative research more central to the process than it is at other funds."
    Link
    "Unlike the firm’s other offerings, however, this one relies on a quantitative model—developed by committee member Robert Turley—to find attractive stocks. The firm’s vaunted analyst team doesn’t dive deeply into the model’s recommendations; it simply checks if those stocks meet the team’s expectations for valuation, management, and business prospects."
    Link
    Dodge & Cox communications emphasize the use of fundamental research for DODEX.
    I did not find quantitative research explicitly mentioned.
    "Dodge & Cox relies on fundamental research to select investments for the Fund’s portfolio, supplemented by financial screening models that help identify companies from within the Fund’s investment universe for further consideration by research analysts."
    Summary Prospectus
    "The Fund is constructed based on Dodge & Cox’s strict valuation discipline and fundamental approach to stock selection, with a portfolio built on the expertise of our global industry analysts. In the years we have spent investing in emerging market companies for other Dodge & Cox mutual funds, we have built tools to enhance our analysts’ ability to identify risks and opportunities in emerging markets."
    Link