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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • RPHYX--- CASH POSITION AS OF 2/29/16 PER MORNINSTAR = CUT & PASTE
    Here are the 2/29 holdings (from RiverPark):
    http://www.riverparkfunds.com/Funds/ShortTermHighYield/FullHoldings.aspx
    90.06% are securities. There are not sufficient details given to completely identify the securities, but based on M*'s analysis a reasonable guess would be that all but 2% are bonds, and the remainder are convertibles.
    From one of M*'s methodology papers: "Morningstar includes securities that mature in less than one year in the definition of cash."
    M*'s analysis of the fund portfolio says that its average effective maturity of bonds is 1.83 years. So we can guess that M* is calling about half of the bonds "cash". Possibly a bit less, depending on the distribution of bonds. Let's say it's 40%.
    So M* describes 40% of the 90% of bonds as cash. That's 36%. Add in the 10% that Riverpark says is not held as securities, and we've got 46% cash (by M*'s definition).
    One can call these short term bonds whatever one wants - cash, ultrashort bonds, securities. Regardless of what one calls them, recognize them for what they are - bonds maturing in under a year, that have better-than-cash yield but also retain credit risk.
  • T. Rowe Price Webcast
    Hey, a bumbler! Had a basement full of those little critters a few years ago.
  • SEQUX-keep it or sell it
    Hi Carefree. If you didn't own SEQUX, would you buy it to fill that space? I always thought I would like to buy that fund if it ever opened up again, but I now feel like it is not the same fund it was 5-10 years ago. Trust in management and stewardship, a term borrowed from M* is not there for me, even though M* still ranks the fund gold for that aspect.
    What's your gut say? For me. the best fund in the world is now in question. There are plenty of good funds to choose from.
  • Jason Zweig: Cash Is Now A Sin: MFO's David Snowball Comments
    Can't access the article, so here's a shot in the dark:
    Observing my funds, especially at T. Rowe Price, I've observed over several years that they have been avoiding holding cash if cash is defined as a money market fund or bank deposit. Obviously, they don't want money earning near 0. However, many funds do hold suitable higher yielding proxies for cash (that is unless your investing horizon is extremely short). Here's three low risk funds you're likely to find in place of cash, often in substantial percentages, in T. Rowe Price 's allocation and balanced funds.
    Limited Duration Inflation Focused Bond Fund TRBFX
    Ultra Short Term Bond Fund TRBUX
    Short Term Bond Fund PRWBX
    (Correction to my earlier comments: PRWCX does not invest in the above funds from what I can tell. But, interestingly, as of last December the fund held 14.9% in Price's "Reserve Investment Fund", a money market fund apparently designed to serve their own uses.)
    So, I wonder if Zweig is including these types of investments as cash in whatever numbers he's floating around? Additionally, recognizing that more and more individual investors now use allocation, balanced and target date funds, fund houses and managers may feel a bit more freedom to keep their equity funds aggressively invested.
  • Jason Zweig: Cash Is Now A Sin: MFO's David Snowball Comments
    Most fund managers also need to show performance in order to attract more AUM. Even if they wanted to hold more cash for a rainy day, they don't dare show 'drag' in a rising market lest potential customers put their $$$ into a competitor's fund instead.
    Thankfully, us individual investors don't need to compete with an arbitrary benchmark to attract assets, so if we're holding large cash-like piles for prolonged periods[1], and our other holdings are doing just fine and meeting our goals/needs, at least WE will be in a position to buy hand-over-fist when quality stuff 'goes on sale.'
    [1] I am. While I have many existing long-term positions/accounts and have added new stuff over time -- holding nice Sleep Well At Night equity-heavy portfolios -- I've had a hard time willingly committing large amounts of inherited funds into the market in recent years. There are few good values in my view. Ergo, I wait patiently.
  • Josh Brown: Welcome To The Chop Shop: + When Do You Want Your Risk, Now Or Later?
    FYI: Talk to some traders right now and you’ll hear the smartest ones talking about fading each edge of the range – the market-wide breakouts and breakdowns are all false.
    Only amateurs are making high-conviction moves these days. They get bearish at SPX 1970 and bullish as we approach 2000. The market is chopping them up.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://thereformedbroker.com/2016/03/11/welcome-to-the-chop-shop/
    When Do You Want Your Risk, Now Or Later?:
    http://thereformedbroker.com/2016/03/10/when-do-you-want-your-risk-now-or-later/
    Didn't we close at 2022 today? Hasn't oil rocketed ahead over 50% off its lows. Aren't junk bonds leading stocks and many after today's big move up in the 2.5% to 3% YTD range? I just love these so called professionals who talk down to the amateurs. I guess the difference between a professional and an amateur is the amount of capital involved? And as we saw earlier today, those huge sums of capital managed by the hedge funds have had dismal returns the past 7 years.
  • Most U.S. Stock Pickers Failed To Beat Index Last Year, S&P Says
    FYI: Study finds the pattern persists over five and ten years.
    Managers who bought international equities fared better.
    Chalk up another victory for indexing.
    Sixty-six percent of mutual-fund managers who buy large U.S. stocks underperformed the benchmark Standard & Poor’s 500 Index last year, according to a study by S&P Dow Jones Indices.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-03-09/most-u-s-stock-pickers-failed-to-beat-index-last-year-s-p-says
    MarketWatch Slant:
    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-sp-500-beat-66-of-stock-pickers-last-year-2016-03-10/print
    Click On SPVIA U.S. Year-End 2015
    https://us.spindices.com/search/?query=spiva+u.s.+year-end+2015&Search=GO&Search=GO
  • MAPIX Annual Report
    I'm down to 8% foreign. After sticking to my guns about Asia for years, it's just plain not making me much money, anymore. Lots of macro reasons for that, of course. SFGIX is a small bite of my stuff now, too. Started with it 3 years ago.
  • MAPIX Annual Report
    I have been a fan of Matthews in general for many years and have owned both MAPIX when it first opened as an alternative to MACSX when that fund was closed to new investors. When MACSX reopened, I moved my MAPIX money to it. But when moving my 401k money to an IRA I was able to buy SFGIX. I moved that EM chunk of money again, to Andrew Foster.
    At one time years back on this discussion board, many were saying Asia is the future - that's where the bulk of your money should be. Well, that was baloney then and it still is - at least I don't see it happening in my life time. Some exposure to Asia is great, but I for one don't think you need an Asia specific (especially China specific) fund. Not When Andrew Foster's fund is available. Who better then to determine an Asia allocation? And right now Foster is reducing Asia exposure. Matthews funds are the best of the Asian specific class, but are they needed other than for momentum bets? Here is a quote I pulled out of a different MFO post on SFGIX.
    February 2016 – In his latest portfolio review, Andrew Foster discusses a shift in the Fund’s composition, away from the Asian region, and toward larger stocks at the expense of smaller ones. Next, he speculates as to the cause behind the collapse in China’s capital markets. While he does not offer a definitive explanation, he does suggest that circumstances may be serious enough to warrant attention from investors.
  • Jeffrey Gundlach Calls End of Risk-Market Rally
    @hank said "So small investors are supposed to ...? "
    Gundlach mentioned as possible investments
    G-7 Bonds in local currency. Gundlach's newest fund Right product,right time.
    http://www.doublelinefunds.com/funds/global_bond/overview.html
    Bond C E Fs @ discount.His ?
    DBL
    http://www.cefconnect.com/Details/Summary.aspx?Ticker=DBL
    DSL
    http://www.cefconnect.com/Details/Summary.aspx?Ticker=DSL
    @junKster said on 3/6
    the Jeffrey Gundlach DoubleLine bond funds mentioned (DBLTX and DLTNX have been among the best of the best over the past 1, 3, and 5 years. And obviously had you *blindly* put your money in the trust of DoubleLine you would be sitting pretty in that bond category if a diversified portfolio is your thing.
    http://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/comment/75948/#Comment_75948
    Also in JNK
    image
    By Bloomberg News | March 9, 2016 - 12:09 pm EST
    Best junk bond manager of decade says recession fears overdone
    Fidelity's Mark Notkin sees mid-to-high single-digit returns for 2016
    Mark Notkin expected the rebound in high-yield bonds. The earlier plunge in the first part of the year is what didn't make sense to him.
    Mr. Notkin, whose $9.7 billion Fidelity Capital & Income Fund FAGIX has outperformed all peers over the past decade, didn't flinch as high-yield bond prices tumbled in January and early February. While investors feared that declining oil prices and troubles in Europe and Asia might disrupt growth in the U.S., Mr. Notkin found little evidence to support the gloom.
    http://www.investmentnews.com/article/20160309/FREE/160309924?template=printart
    Gundlach's Slides From 3/9
    http://seekingalpha.com/article/3956876-jeffrey-gundlach-probability-another-hike-march-june-2016-slides
    Gundlach "uncanny"how accurate this indicator has been
    image
  • Mutual Funds Rally By Not Sticking To A Style: FPACX
    My favorite fund in the World Allocation category: SGENX. Schwab waives the load and I have held it for many years.
  • DAILYALTS: Plates Are Shifting
    Yup. The plates seem to be shifting. Somewhat overblown hyperbole though.
    Lots of interesting charts. Reference to some hedge funds making a killing shorting oil and gold in recent years is interesting. If they now have to cover those shorts, that's a headwind for those sectors.
    Good link Ted (whether you agree with his conclusions or not).
  • Carlson’s (and Others) Periodic Table
    Hi Guys,
    Earlier today, Ted posted a Link that listed 20 best investing Blogs. Here is the internal Link to that listing:
    http://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/26376/the-20-best-investing-blogs-of-2016
    I am familiar with many of them, and they are useful resources. I am especially a fan of Ben Carlson’s columns. They are almost always chockfull of actionable information. His latest column is no exception. I’m surprised that Ted has not yet referenced it. So I will:
    http://awealthofcommonsense.com/2015/01/updating-favorite-performance-chart/
    It is Carlson’s favorite performance chart. Likewise, it is one of my favorites. Note the rather random quilt-like pattern. Good luck on recognizing a specific pattern, but general observations are possible. Carlson makes a few very relevant interpretations. I agree with his assessments. I do wish he had included an average volatility column to supplement his returns summary column.
    Many alternate Periodic Tables of Investment Returns are accessible. They all provide terrific performance summaries at a glance. Here is a Link to one such Table that includes a few more years of data:
    https://investment.prudential.com/util/common/get?file=1D065355D2CC360385257B7D00536F8A
    This one is from Prudential Investments. Many others, like from Callan, are easily accessible. Others include Fixed Income Periodic Performance summaries. Here is a Link to a set of Tables from American Century Investments:
    https://www.americancentury.com/content/dam/americancentury/ipro/pdfs/flyer/Periodic_Table.pdf
    These tables include a Standard Deviation summary column. Good for them; good for us. Pick your own poison. Enjoy.
    Best Regards.
  • Did You See Why The S&P 500 Is Outperforming Dividend Mutual Funds?
    FYI: Dividend mutual funds as a group lagged the S&P 500 stock index over the 10 years that ended going into Monday.
    The reasons for the underperformance are worth keeping in mind whenever you make buy or sell decisions in your portfolio, particularly the diversified portion — your mutual funds and ETFs. They could boost the octane in your funds’ fuel tank.
    Dividend funds lagged despite having outperformed as a group over the first half of the decade. But as the post-financial-crisis bull market picked up steam, the S&P 500 began to top dividend funds in total return.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.investors.com/etfs-and-funds/mutual-funds/did-you-see-why-the-sp-500-is-outperforming-dividend-mutual-funds/
  • DAILYALTS: Plates Are Shifting
    FYI: While the major equity indexes continue to scrape and crawl their way higher in this market bounce, many of the following markets left for dead have now entered NEW bull markets: Greece, Russia, Brazil, Crude Oil, Oil Service, Energy MLPs, Gold, Metal and Miners, and even the Transports. After years of outperformance from the FANG and Momentum stocks, the market of 2016 is seeing a shift toward underperforming, highly leveraged, worst quality companies and geographies that it can find.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://dailyalts.com/plates-are-shifting/
  • Mutual Funds Rally By Not Sticking To A Style: FPACX
    I just compared the above top rated Forward Income Builder fund (AIAIX) to the fund I've been using in this space for the last 13+ years TIBIX. No thanks, I'll continue to remain oblivious.
    Edited to add: I'm sure I'm missing something but it doesn't appear to be performance. I'd be thankful for any insight. FWIW, I'm not totally thrilled by the Thornburg offering as they have faltered in their objective of "income building" but I haven't been able to find or settle on a suitable alternative.
    An obvious observation - TIBIX couldn't show up in the cited article, since it hasn't been around for 15 years.
    What you're missing seems to be the fund's relatively poor performance through 2008 (falling further than both M*'s moderate allocation benchmark and the average world allocation fund). See this M* chart
    For the chart, I used 9/30/2007 as the start date (David suggested fall 2007 as a start point, this date seemed as good as any). Over this period of time, TIBIX performed in line with AIAIX and the moderate allocation benchmark, though it significantly outpeformed world allocation funds.
    It's that oversized dip that's killing it. It doesn't get brownie points for upside volatility with Sortino.
    Over its lifetime, TIBIX has indeed excelled. Here's that same M* graph, stretched to lifetime.
    While I'm not a fan of asking "what have you done for me lately" (e.g. YTD), I think it is fair to point out that all of that outperformance is due to the fund's first five years. Since then it has been doing well, but it's not beating a few other good funds. However, by the same token, if you throw out its 2008 performance, it again looks great.
    If one is willing to live with the idea that the fund could get creamed (relatively speaking) in a bear market, it's a fine, high performing fund.
  • Mutual Funds Rally By Not Sticking To A Style: FPACX
    Yuh, I was struck by the plethora of "Income Builders" on the list. It turns out that there are a dozen funds bearing that designation. One is designated "global," one is designated "U.S." and the rest promise, generically, to build income
    It feels like an marketing hook, akin to "strategic income" and "tactical income" from a few years back.
    David
  • Mutual Funds Rally By Not Sticking To A Style: FPACX
    I just compared the above top rated Forward Income Builder fund (AIAIX) to the fund I've been using in this space for the last 13+ years TIBIX. No thanks, I'll continue to remain oblivious.
    Edited to add: I'm sure I'm missing something but it doesn't appear to be performance. I'd be thankful for any insight. FWIW, I'm not totally thrilled by the Thornburg offering as they have faltered in their objective of "income building" but I haven't been able to find or settle on a suitable alternative.
  • Mutual Funds Rally By Not Sticking To A Style: FPACX
    The short version: a former Morningstar analyst ranked "balanced" funds with more than a billion in assets by their 15-year Sortino ratio. Sortino is an offshoot of the well-known Sharpe ratio, but it's more sensitive to a fund's downside deviation. By that measure, the best balanced fund is F P A Crescent.
    Two quick notes:
    1. a lot has changed for Crescent over the past 15 years, not least growing to 100 times their previous size. That is, from $170 million in 2002 to more than $18 billion now.
    2. different parameters give different results. Lipper categorizes Crescent as a "flexible portfolio" fund, which seems more appropriate than benchmarking it against staid 60/40 funds as Morningstar does. If you look at 60/40 funds over the course of the current market cycle, which began in the fall of 2007, Crescent finishes sixth:
    1. Forward Income Builder
    2. Chicago Equity Partners Balanced
    3. Bruce
    4. Marsico Flexible Capital
    5. Intrepid Capital
    6. FPA Crescent
    7. Provident Trust
    8. JP Morgan Income Builder
    9. Prudential Income Builder
    10. Loomis Sayles Multi-Asset Income
    If you sort by Martin ratio, Charles's preferred metric and the basis of our fund ratings, you get most of the same funds but Crescent pops to fourth:
    1. Forward Income Builder
    2. Intrepid Capital
    3. Chicago Equity Partners Balanced
    4. FPA Crescent
    5. Provident Trust
    6. Bruce
    For what interest that holds,
    David
  • Unique S&P 500 ETF: High Income, Low Volatility Bring Investor Love: SPHD
    FYI: When an ETF invests in the S&P 500 while offering less risk and a big yield, what’s not to love?
    PowerShares S&P 500 High Dividend Low Volatility (SPHD) filters the iconic index for 75 companies with the highest dividend yields, then extracts 50 of those that are least volatile.
    SPHD was up 5.99% this year through March 2 vs. a 2.39% loss for SPY. It has also outperformed SPY, the largest and oldest U.S. exchange traded fund, over the past three years.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.investors.com/etfs-and-funds/etfs/sp-500-etf-high-income-low-volatility-and-loads-of-investor-love/