Maybe these strategists know something that the other strategists in the past 5 - 7 years didn't.... The brilliant Ray Dalio of Bridgewater has had outsized positions in international / emerging markets for the last 7 years and they haven't budged. Because of the influence of the Modern Portfolio Theory crowd, there has been increasing pressure, over the last 10 years for investors to "go" emerging. And ETFs make it too easy for investors to attempt it ..... IMO, the domestic U.S. market is still the best and easiest to contemplate, even if it has occasional declines every 3 - 5 years ...

FYI: Go outside the ‘style box’? That worked for some funds over the past 15 years.
Regards,
Ted
http://www.wsj.com/articles/mutual-funds-rally-by-not-sticking-to-a-style-1457321007

Well we get to here his thoughts again Tuesday !
Jeffrey Gundlach (who many follow blindly because he is an expert and manages billions)
http://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/26347/another-open-mic-for-doubleline-s-jeffery-gundach-connect-the-dots-3-8-2016-webcast

Actually before I get grief about it, the Jeffrey Gundlach DoubleLine bond funds mentioned (DBLTX and DLTNX have been among the best of the best over the past 1, 3, and 5 years. And obviously had you *blindly* put your money in the trust of DoubleLine you would be sitting pretty in that bond category if a diversified portfolio is your thing. I am as eager as anyone to hear Mr. Gundlach's views on 3/8 if only to see how the markets react.

My high yield pick is PHYZX - low expenses of .58, seasoned management, and rated 5 stars by M*.

Among the better junk bond funds and wondered why it has never been on a my radar screen. Now I remember. At Scottrade where I trade it is only available to clients of registered investment advisers only. Maybe not so at other firms. Thanks for the heads up to the forum on a consistently good junk bond fund.
TSP_Transfer Appreciate your posts and keep em coming. But you know me, I never act on what I read but price and only price. But nonetheless I still read all I can on the markets if for any reason to see if there is becoming a consensus. The experts are almost wrong when there is a universal consensus are where particular markets are heading and often times I factor that into price action. Obviously the consensus is still that there is another shoe to drop in that bond category. Jeffrey Gundlach (who many follow blindly because he is an expert and manages billions) was still predicting a collapse in the junk bond market in early February just a few days before it took off on its biggest rally in years. The jury is still out on that call.

Recently started a position in ROAM ETF in addition to my position in Seafarer. Glad for the moment, we'll see...been a hammering the last few years.

I like and old FHTIX (you can find brokerages with low minimum initial investments); VWEAX and HYB. Have held many others over the years and these are the survivors.

Don't know much about the author's record. Matthew Sauer. He reports having spent nine years with Fidelity Independent Advisor (F I A). In 2014, he started a small investment advisory firm in Williamstown, Massachusetts, still home for Don Dion's F I A operation. Sauer has 46 clients and $10 million in AUM. 70% of his AUM is with a pension or profit-sharing plan.
Curiously, his "market perspectives" provide no perspectives. He simply reports a handful of datapoints: markets up, inflation in the Euro zone down, ISM up, some individual stocks up, others down.
(shrugs)
David

Summary From an article earlier this week from Seeking Alpfa looking @ E T Fs in this space
authored byFundGuru Mar. 3, 2016 8:40 AM ET
High yield bonds have performed poorly of late, despite historically delivering equity-like returns with lower volatility.
We believe the recent sell-off provides an attractive entry point for long-term investors.

Recent selloff??? Have performed poorly of late??? Junk bonds were in the midst of their largest rally in years when that article was published. They are now positive YTD.

:)
I'm looking forward to that entire category resurrecting itself out of the funk and the soup and the mud. I've held this fund for over 3 years. I believe in Andrew Foster. I like the fact that he actually knows how to COMMUNICATE. Now, then: Ready, Set, GO!. Please?

Well, this was on a beautiful summer day a few years ago; it just was striking how much nicer it all was than decades earlier. Used to go to Chicago as a kid 60y ago, and then 30y ago for tradeshows.
As someone who attended the UofR, I know what you're talking about there, too.
And as a buckeye I well remember when right at Lake Erie the Cuyahoga River caught fire and burned a bridge and actual water had to be poured on it to put it out.

Oil service stocks have had statistically significant positive outcomes in the winter and biotech in the fall. A sector model that I use, utilizes oil services, biotech, and utilities combined with a risk management heuristic. It has produced decent returns over 30 years. We will sell out of oil services on May 1.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zlgOYdATSzC7YrUE9yE_uY03sHBRTcLUVyKusqqv2tI/edit#gid=113856734

A common refrain I see here, there, and everywhere. By the time the smoke clears it could be a year or longer down the road and the markets that much higher. After the 2009 bottom it was years before many ventured back into the markets if ever. The news is the gloomiest after major bottoms and prices have zoomed higher. So I guess the question is how many feel 2/11 was not just A bottom but THE bottom for oil, stocks, and junk bonds as well as a low in 10 year Treasury yields?

Even better marketing idea - shut it down one month before M* gives it a 1* rating. (It would have been three years old on April Fool's day.)

To return briefly to David's comments on FPACX, which I endorse. Thanks for showing me how to painlessly reduce my too-numerous fund holdings. However, (please note I did not say, "That being said…") I can't see LCORX as an alternative but I would put in a plug for the local (Indiana) talent at the Bruce Fund (BRUFX). It's a relatively large non-retirement position for me and one that's been a keeper for 8-9 years.

@willmatt72: FYI: U.S. News & World Report ranks FGMNX #1 in the (IGB) Fund Category. In 30 years the fund has had only two down years, 1994 and 2013. HSCSX is ranked #8 in the (SCB) Fund Category. Bob Young's fund ranking system is based soley on momentum.
Regards,
Ted
FGMNX:
http://money.usnews.com/funds/mutual-funds/intermediate-government/fidelity®-gnma-fund/fgmnx
HSCSX:
http://money.usnews.com/funds/mutual-funds/small-blend/homestead-small-company-stock-fund/hscsx

XLP and RHS have been "staples" of my portfolio for the past three years, RHS has done a bit better. They seem to work well together.

I enjoy Max Funds as a quick-take. May not be current and certainly not the full story. I don't know of any other sites that even attempt to evaluate hot money. That has a big effect if you're a long term investor. Killed MFLDX (along with a lot of other problems).
Added 3/4: (1) I've held mostly the same 8-10 core funds for anywhere from 10-25 years with a few good firms. (2) I'll also take an occasional long-shot (speculative play) on a very badly beaten up fund as I did with OPGSX in September '15 and PRLAX 6-8 weeks ago. These spec plays are not intended to be held more than a few months to a few years - time to bounce a lot higher if the educated guess works out. (Yes - they can also fall, so weighing potential upside and downside is crucial)
The point here: For neither of the above types of purchases is the opinion of Max Funds, *M or MarketWatch useful or given much consideration. For the first type (core holdings) I want low fees, stable competent management, good service and annual reports that are comprehensive and readable. For the second (speculative plays) I want a fund that's been hammered hard over several years (probably down 25% or more over the last year). And Nobody loves it anymore. Than it's a matter of trying to become educated on the the fund's investments, reasons for its poor performance lately, macroeconomic conditions that might help going forward - and than taking a plunge, usually with only 2-5% of total holdings.
Sorry so long winded. Guess I've strayed from Max's original point on Max funds. But my point is you need to take all these with a grain of salt. Don't expect them to always point you in the best direction. Use your own pointer.

For anything less than 5 years, don't bother as there's too much that could go wrong. Another question would be, how much experience do you have? This question is related to what would you do in the midst of a downturn. We all believe we can take the heat, but as Mike Tyson once said, 'Everyone has a plan til they get punched in the mouth'.
Of course, the amount you're proposing to invest would also factor in.

Better to Inquire about investment ideas @ M F O than some of these advisors !
There's a phrase no one wants to read in a sweeping report about the financial advisers who handle their savings: economy-wide misconduct.
By Bloomberg News | March 1, 2016 - 4:28 pm EST
A new working paper by business school professors at the University of Chicago and University of Minnesota found that 7% of financial advisers have been disciplined for misconduct that ranges from putting clients in unsuitable investments to trading on client accounts without permission. That's a troubling mark for an industry that relies on the trust of clients. And some large, well-regarded firms have misconduct records that far exceed the average.
Many fired advisers end up moving to firms that have higher rates of misconduct than their previous employer did, and they become repeat offenders. "Prior offenders are five times as likely to engage in new misconduct as the average financial adviser," the study found.
"This is eye-opening and suggests not only that some firms have a high tolerance for misconduct on the part of their employees, but that their very business model is to attract the broker who can generate high revenue at the cost of repetitive disciplinary violations," said John Coffee, a professor at Columbia Law School in New York. "FINRA needs to focus on this."
Many cases of misconduct arose around the issue of the "suitability" of investments. That would mean, for instance, that an adviser should not suggest that a 75-year-old client put most assets in a high-fee, aggressive-growth mutual fund. Often, the report found, investments involved in reported misconduct cases were insurance products.
The first-of-its-kind study names names, listing 10 advisory firms with the highest misconduct rates, as well as those with the lowest.

http://www.investmentnews.com/article/20160301/FREE/160309989?template=printart
@Shostakovich
I own this fund in the Global Bond space you mention.DHGAX
Assets for the Fund
$2,133,975,285
Holdings
206
Dividend Frequency
Quarterly
Morningstar Category
World Bond
Lipper Category
Global Income
Average Maturity
8.30 Years
Duration
6.83 Years
30-Day Yield (as of
1/31/16)
Class A 1.27%
Class I 1.62%
TOP TEN SECURITIES1
Australian Govt 3.25% 10/21/2018 10.04%
Australian Government 3.25% 04/21/
2025 4.43%
Canadian Government, 2.25% 06/01/
2025 3.79%
Japan (30 Yr Issue) 1.7% 09/20/2044 3.47%
Buoni Poliennali Del Tes 2.36142% 09/15/
2024 2.66%
France (Govt Of) 1% 11/25/2025 2.57%
Canadian Government, 2.5% 06/01/2024 2.45%
Canadian Government 1% 08/01/2016 2.11%
U.S. Treasury Note 1.75% 12/31/2020 2.04%
Buoni Poliennali Del Tes 1.05% 12/01/
2019 2.03%
https://public.dreyfus.com/documents/compliancedocs/factsheets/monthly/6940.pdf

What charts? Growth of $10k, M*, looking at curve smoothness over time.
Do it yourself.
Takes into account splits, of course.
I set start point as inception of SHW, hence the year.
Log scale does its own smoothing as a function of increase, sort of, as I note.
Did not say anyone was better than SHW. It was you who used the characterization stabler.
I love hindsight with individual stocks, cocktail party talk about CVS, Costco, Nike, Apple, Altria, B-H, the ones I already mentioned (nobody on earth knows who Barnes Group is).
You may well have a winner, and you have the courage of your convictions, yay. But do they have a moat? Is there barrier to entry overseas? Why not Chinese paint?
Anyway, check this out:
http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2016/01/29/the-best-stock-over-the-last-30-years-youve-never-heard-of-it/