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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Where Are The Female Fund Managers?
    Mary Miller did a bang-up job as head of T. Rowe Price's fixed income division. Before taking over, their fixed income funds were mostly duds. IMHO, she turned the division around and it remains competitive to this day. She left Price several years ago for government service.
    From Wikipedia: "Mary John Miller serves as the U.S. Department of the Treasury's Under Secretary for Domestic Finance ... responsible for developing and coordinating Treasury's policies and guidance in the areas of financial institutions, federal debt financing, financial regulation, and capital markets. ... Previously, Miller served as Assistant Secretary of the Treasury for Financial Markets ... Prior to joining Treasury, Miller spent 26 years working for T. Rowe Price Group, Inc., where she was the director of the Fixed Income Division and a member of the firm's Management Committee. In November of 2011, Miller was included on The New Republic's list of Washington's most powerful, least famous people."
    To the basic question here: I suspect it's for the same reason that males seem to dominate this board. For every Anna, you'll find three male-sounding names like Ted, Old Joe or Hank. Probably has to do with the relative attraction finance holds for the genders - especially when they are young. No doubt gender stereotyping plays a big part. That's also been an issue in many scientific/technical areas which largely attracted males until quite recently.
  • Is China a bargain?
    Matthews Asia Dividend has been a stalwart for years. We use it as a core hold in many client accounts. It is like the Energizer bunny. We call it the 'chicken' way to have China exposure.
    MAPIX = Chicken (China) and Dumplings (dividends)!
  • Chart Of The Day: Shanghai Composite Index: (Update)
    When Bubbles Burst: China Edition
    Posted on July 8, 2015 by David Ott
    Acropolis Investment Management
    image
    You may be looking at the largely flat emerging markets returns in that chart, feeling nervous about Greece and China and wondering whether you should have emerging markets exposure at all. I completely understand the question and have two answers that I’ll bet you can anticipate.
    First, having two assets that you expect to earn positive rates of return over long periods that don’t move in lockstep with each other is a huge benefit to a portfolio – it’s the basis for diversification. If all assets were correlated with each other, you couldn’t lower portfolio risk by having the two assets.
    Second, the valuations overseas are much more attractive than they are in the US (and if you put a positive spin on the recent declines, you can say that they are getting more attractive every day).
    One of the better (though highly imperfect) measures of valuation is the Shiller PE ratio, which looks at current prices compared to 10 years of earnings to remove some of the volatility in the ‘e’ part of the ratio.
    The PE-ratio of the S&P 500 is currently around 26, which historically is very expensive. I wrote in February of 2014 that the market was overvalued on this basis and it’s more true today than it was then (which is why you don’t make big moves based on the Shiller PE ratio).
    image
    Whether you look at the Shiller PE or several other valuation metrics, you can see that emerging markets are the cheapest across the board. That doesn’t tell us anything about returns in the short run, but if the future is like the past, it should tell a lot about long-term future returns.
    This entry was posted in Daily Insights
    http://acrinv.com/when-bubbles-burst-china-edition/
    Round and round we go !
    Managing Rate Hike Expectations Down… Again
    If the US economy is still poised to grow, why are Treasury yields tumbling? Greece is probably the explanation. China’s sagging stock market isn’t helping either. The weakness in equities is unnerving investors in Asia and around the world at a time when global growth appears to be faltering. Markit Economics noted earlier this week in its global PMI report that growth in June weakened to its slowest pace in five months as output in emerging markets contracted.
    Is the Fed likely to start raising rates in the current climate? Probably not, although we’ll know more after Sunday, when the new-world-post-ultimatum order for Europe emerges. Meantime, it’s risk-off for a world that’s forced to endure another phase of blowback that can be traced to the Great Recession… six years later, and counting. When the dust clears, it’s not unreasonable to imagine that we’ll be back where we started: modest growth and more than a few caveats. That, of course, will lay the groundwork for a renewal in forecasting that a rate hike is just around the corner.
    image
    http://www.capitalspectator.com/managing-rate-hike-expectations-down-again/
  • Is China a bargain?
    Matthews Asia Dividend has been a stalwart for years. We use it as a core hold in many client accounts. It is like the Energizer bunny. We call it the 'chicken' way to have China exposure.
  • Internet explorer or firefox
    @davidrmoran
    Thank you. Will check regarding the reversion method you noted for Windows.
    I'm just not so willing as in prior years to keep messing around with a system to learn more new tweaks.
    I'd much rather use the time for family and investing.
    @Gandalf
    Chrome may likely become the browser to use here. An aside: Visited a few small car shows in Michigan recently (2 massive shows coming in August). Geez, I sure would like to take a late 60's machine down the on ramp at the nearby interstate and just slam through the gears with a close-ratio 4 speed to run fast for the next 4 or 5 miles.
  • Internet explorer or firefox
    Hi @msf
    Thank you for this info. We will need to purchase another laptop soon for our daughter's use in school, as the current unit is suffering a problem with the ribbon cable connections to the display screen. A teardown fix exists, and I would be in the mood for such a repair 10 years ago, but not today.
    I have been scratching my head on this; as the laptop to be replaced is using Vista, which we won't miss, but my laptop still runs Windows 7 and I'm pleased with this and would prefer to purchase a new laptop with Win7 and not Win8.
    Still looking around, and have not placed much time into this search at this point.
    Lastly, a brother in law bought a replacement laptop a few years ago with Win8 and he was not very pleased with changes that had been made.
  • Where Are The Female Fund Managers?
    DoubleLine has Luz Padilla @ DLENX
    Have been invested with Luz Padilla for several years. Managing the asset class of EM debt is no small feast. She has achieved solid returns without incurring additional risk comparing to her peers.
  • odds of bear market highest since 2007_ (anyone buying this?)
    Hi Dex,
    Your interpretation of BobC’s 50/50 market odds is very naïve. Formally, your reading might be called a Probit (PROBibility unIT) statistical measure. That form of measurement reduces the stats to an overly simplistic either/or positive/negative final judgment. Based on your post, you are satisfied with an equally weighted outcomes probability. The historical data does not support that weighting.
    Either/or results need not be equally weighted. When a baseball hitter makes an official plate appearance, he can register either a hit or make an out. Extending your assessment, he has a 50/50 likelihood of either outcome, batting averages notwithstanding. You will surely go bankrupt if you accept the hit side of that wager.
    Allow me to recite another extreme example of the problems assigning an equal probability to a bifurcation event for the mistaken reason that there are merely two possible happenings. Weather serves as a terrific illustration.
    In my part of the Southern California landscape, any weather forecaster would lose his license to practice if he assigned a 50/50 odds for rain or clear on any given day. The proper odds likely hover at the 2/98 level against rain. Bifurcation does not typically translate into equally probable events.
    From a Franklin Templeton market summary, over the past 88 years, the S&P 500 recorded 64 Up and 24 Down years. That is a 73% likelihood of a positive annual return. For the 64 positive return years, the annual average return was slightly North of 22%. For the 24 negative return years, the annual average loss was just South of -13% . So, not only do the odds favor a positive annual year, the returns for the positive years swamp the less likely negative years. That’s a double positive.
    These favorable equity return stats are the basis for investing in stocks. The historical data shows that fixed income investments (like Bonds) have a higher likelihood of a positive annual return than stocks, but the payoffs are more muted. That’s why most portfolios that seek growth emphasize its stock components.
    I’m sure you are familiar with these commonplace statistics. Given that familiarity, I’m puzzled by your submittal. You are just plain wrongheaded if you really believe that, without further mitigating circumstances, the odds are 50/50 that equities will deliver a positive or a negative reward/penalty in any given year.
    Of course you’re free to assign whatever probabilities you like to the markets, but that’s being more than naïve; that’s completely ignoring the available database at your investment peril.
    Good luck, and you will certainly need all of it if that’s your understanding and use of market statistics. I hope you were just joking or that I misread your post.
    Best Wishes.
  • Internet explorer or firefox
    Yeah, "Edge of Night". Went on for years... Just like the problems with IE.
    LOL. Isn't that the truth.
  • Are You Afraid to Spend Money? Junkster and I ...

    I'll scrimp on unnecessary expenses (e.g, I pay about $10-$30/year for cellphone service, depending on my limited usage). But I won't cut corners on essentials, like health care, or on family (stop smirking, all you people thinking of Greece :-)).

    I'm thinking about going to this one. Which do you use?
    https://ringplus.net/
    That looks great, at least worth trying - you can't beat free.
    Mine is a legacy plan, no longer offered: T-Mobile prepaid (the old one). When I was doing more traveling for consulting work, I'd pay $100 for 1000 minutes which would usually last me the year. Now, I'm hardly using any minutes. Just need the line.
    For that, all I need to do is top it off with $10/year (30 minutes airtime) - that keeps the account active and retains all unused minutes. If I ever get close to zero minutes left, I'll pay $100 for another thousand minutes, which will last me several years at my current usage rate.
    Here's a page describing the old prepaid plan and the new one:
    http://www.prepaidphonenews.com/2014/08/good-news-bad-news-changes-coming-to-t.html
    The new one isn't that much worse than what I have, depending on your usage pattern.
  • odds of bear market highest since 2007_ (anyone buying this?)
    Sure I'll "buy" it.
    Bear markets are as inevitable as the proverbial "death and taxes." What to do? Depends on age & circumstances. Youngsters can ride out several bears and still be fine - if history is a precedent.
    But retirees are in a different boat and need to be very careful about the degree of risk they assume. This is always the case, whether you think a bear market is on the horizon or not. I take seriously the warnings (err ... rumblings) of David Snowball and Ed Studzinski and others in recent years. Of course, the problem with such warnings is they can be premature by years. That doesn't dismiss their validity.
    I think what these persons are really concerned about is that many retirees who can't afford to lose much may be assuming too much risk. (And they're likely correct in their assessment.)
    Oh - I took a 20% hit in 08 - but got it all back the following year. And, I'd weather another 20% hit just fine. But have grown more cautious with age and time - preferring to dwell mostly among conservative offerings like RPSIX, TRRIX, RPGAX and PRWCX. These will not prevent a loss - but they will help dampen the blow when the bear comes.
    FWIW. - Thanks MJG
  • Oil Prices Plummet To Three-Month Low
    And copper damned well needs to fall, and by quite a bit. Anyone who works with copper, such as plumbing fittings, knows that in the last ten years the pricing has become totally absurd, undoubtedly due to China demand and market manipulation.
  • Internet explorer or firefox
    Yeah, "Edge of Night". Went on for years... Just like the problems with IE.
  • Q&A With Scott Burns: Paying Down Your Mortgage Is More Important Than Tax Deductions
    @bee and @msf
    I did note previous in this thread about being able to itemize deductions for federal (which may also positively affect state taxes, too); and that this ability may have value with deducting mortgage interest and/or that mortgage interest may be the trigger for enough money to get into the itemized deduction section.
    It has since been noted too about being able to deduct property tax, and other smaller items that would not otherwise be able to be used.
    Another itemized dedcution that has become "more" important in the last year is for the medical expenses area. I will guess that this was not the case previously, except with special medical circumstances within a family's expenses.
    NOW, with some families finding more extreme montetary expenses from compliance with ACA, I will again guess that more families now also have this area available for itemizing.
    From experience with some friends and families, the following may now exist:
    ---much higher out of pocket costs for medical and dental plans
    -including policy premiums
    -co-pays (medical/dental)
    -co-pays (meds)
    I played devils advocate with several folks beginning the start period for new ACA rules to help determine previously unused/couldn't use itemized deductions for this area, due to percentage cut off points. Most of these people would not have considered these deductions in prior years.
    Some were now able to include medical/dental expenses due to higher policy premiums, more out-of-pocket expenses for items related to medical and dental. There are many items available to include within this itemized area.
    Obviously, everything will vary depending upon one's personal monetary circumstance.
    However, this is another point of consideration for maintaining a mortgage to allow for this interest deduction that may allow for many other itemized deductions.
    Lastly, as a method of testing whether all of this may be of value versus using the standard tax deduction; is to use tax software and create another "user" tax report as if it was going to be the "real thing". From my recall, the two most popular tax software programs let one create up to 6 tax returns. So, one may fill in the blanks to test if medical/dental deductions of all flavors would meet the cut-off percentage to be of value in reducing taxable income.
    Sadly, as we know; tax things should not have to be so complex for regular folks, but this is how things are, eh?
    Note: many years ago, we did move to a 15 year mortgage at something around 6.75%.
    As has been noted here, we pretty much doubled up on the monthly payment. The only variable was that we funded retirement investments to the maximum first. The most important factor, as we here know; is that we did not live beyond our means and were and still are very good with money flows revolving around the wants and needs of human nature.
    I think I rambled about what was in my mind an hour ago. :)
    Take care,
    Catch
  • Q&A With Scott Burns: Paying Down Your Mortgage Is More Important Than Tax Deductions
    Personally the best thing my wife and I have done financially was to convert our 30-year mortgage to a 15-year mortgage years ago. We will have no mortgage when we retire. That is huge.

    One can accomplish this by making extra payments on a 30 year mortgage. The advantage of doing it this way is that if you ever need/want to not make the extra payment you don't have to. I often skip the extra payment around the holidays and make up the difference when I get my tax return. I like the flexibility of having a lower required payment (30 yr) that I choose
    when to make extra payments (as if its a 15 yr).
    Here's a calculator that help figure out what the extra payment would need to be:
    what-if-i-pay-more-calculator
    Years ago, I got a cold call from a mortgage broker, trying to convince me to refinance to a 15 year to pay it down faster. I said exactly what you wrote - that I could do that myself. His retort was that 98% of people who say they'll do this don't. I can't comment on the accuracy of his figure, but I'm sure that many people don't have the discipline to do this (not anyone here, of course :-)).
    I did ultimately refinance, first to a 15 year, and later to a 15 year adjustable (first 5 years fixed) mortgage, figuring that I'd either refinance after 5 if rates were decent, or pay it off. I lost the flexibility you described, but gained lower rates. Again, no free lunch - I took on higher risk for better returns.
  • Q&A With Scott Burns: Paying Down Your Mortgage Is More Important Than Tax Deductions
    Personally the best thing my wife and I have done financially was to convert our 30-year mortgage to a 15-year mortgage years ago. We will have no mortgage when we retire. That is huge.
    One can accomplish this by making extra payments on a 30 year mortgage. The advantage of doing it this way is that if you ever need/want to not make the extra payment you don't have to. I often skip the extra payment around the holidays and make up the difference when I get my tax return. I like the flexibility of having a lower required payment (30 yr) that I choose when to make extra payments (as if its a 15 yr).
    Here's a calculator that help figure out what the extra payment would need to be:
    what-if-i-pay-more-calculator
  • Q&A With Scott Burns: Paying Down Your Mortgage Is More Important Than Tax Deductions

    Paying off a 3% mortgage seems to me a very conservative/safe move. I'd liken it to owning a Treasury Bond netting holder a guaranteed 3% after taxes. As safe investments go, in an era of minuscule bond & CD rates, that 3% guaranteed return doesn't look bad.
    Assuming you itemize deductions, you need to compare with a Treasury yielding 3% beforetaxes. It's a common mistake - one that Mr. Burns made as well, and that I commented on above.
    The pretax cost of the mortgage is 3%. When you itemize, you get to reduce your taxable income. This results in a tax savings (and so lower net cost of the mortgage). So your aftertax cost of the mortgage is 3% x (1 -r%), where r% is your tax rate.
    That's exactly the same equation and net yield on a Treasury with a 3% pretax rate. Same idea - income taxes reduce the magnitude of any figure - the yield of a mortgage or the cost of a mortgage.
    The "lock" problem cuts both ways. In order to get a Treasury yielding 3% (pretax), you have to go out 30 years. Odds are, your mortgage has fewer years to go. The only way to get a better return on the cash is to take on more risk. As you suggested, rates might rise to 5-6%. In the meantime, you've put money into a lower yielding, shorter term Treasury, hoping (risk) that rates will rise soon enough and fast enough that you come out ahead. Or you've invested in a more risky vehicle to get a higher return.
    TANSTAAFL.
  • Q&A With Scott Burns: Paying Down Your Mortgage Is More Important Than Tax Deductions
    Personally the best thing my wife and I have done financially was to convert our 30-year mortgage to a 15-year mortgage years ago. We will have no mortgage when we retire. That is huge.
  • odds of bear market highest since 2007_ (anyone buying this?)
    Does it really matter? I look at it this way: every year the odds are 50-50 the markets will go up and 50-50 they will go down. Some years they might go up a lot (smaller odds), and other years they might go down a lot (also smaller odds). That's why I have a long-term view of things and have an allocation that will allow me to sleep at night. If I based my investing decisions on what bad things might happen, I would never get out of cash. Am I going to go to cash just because I plan to retire this year? Of course not. I would want to be sure, though, that I have set aside 3-5 years of portfolio cash flow needs in cash, CDs or short-term bonds.
  • Are You Afraid to Spend Money? Junkster and I ...
    http://money.usnews.com/money/personal-finance/articles/2013/09/05/are-you-afraid-to-spend-money
    Junkster and I have been posting similar threads - money and retirement.
    I'm wondering how many people here, in retirement, under-spend out of fear or some other issue - must see net worth grow, net worth must grow for ego issues?????????
    I grew up poor but I always enjoyed life. I have a strange issue, I don' t like to spend money on thing that take up space. I don't care about cars, as long as they work. But, I'm OK with spending money on things like travel and food.
    To be truthful, I have a spreadsheet projecting out my net worth out to 100 and even when adjusting for inflation I a great final net worth - something many would envy. That is with conservative spending and growth.
    We all may remember people who lived through the Great Depression. In later years they might have a great deal of money but, they could not spend it. They were OK with giving it to other but they just could not spend it on themselves.
    I'm in great health and plan to spend more. BUT, IT IS STILL A PURPOSEFUL EFFORT, TO SPEND.
    I try to remember, will I be on my death bed wishing I spent less??
    So, what is your story on spending?