Josh Brown: 2014: The Year That Nothing Worked Dear MJG,
As you know, I don’t practice traditional diversification. So, for me,
this has been a good year – just being long the market.
Recently I read some adviser’s comments regarding this year’s
market active that echoes this article. He said something like -
“If a portion of your portfolio is not losing value, you’re not diversified.”
(Since that’s not a direct quote, I don’t know if it needs parentheses.
One of these days, I’ll have to learn that.)
While this philosophy may satisfy the average low-information
retirement investor, to me it seems a bit like a circular
firing squad or antiperistalsis.
As to your previous posting regarding Rotholtz -
I don’t take exception to “universal rules” and don’t believe that
these congeries are wrong or irrelevant.
However, a summation of these rules and others like them always
proves to be the traditional advice - be a conservative, diversified,
long-term investor.
To me, diversification is like making an “exotic” wager at the
house track.
In this case, your portfolio is your bet.
“Exotic wagers allow you to make multiple bets on multiple horses
in a single wager. Exotic wagers are generally much more difficult
to win than straight wagers, require an advanced degree of skill
and knowledge in horse picking, and are more expensive.
However, the payoffs on exotic wagers are much greater
than straight ones.”
Yes, the potential rewards can be greater – but the odds are against you.
So, I prefer taking the odds rather than laying them.
Or, as my brother-in-law says, “You may have three balls in the air
at the same time, but that doesn’t mean that you’re juggling.”
As to the long-term, I prefer to manage the short term and
let the long term take care of itself.
All of which means that I’ve been touting indexing to my students
for nearly 20 years and ETFs for maybe 10 years. And, of course,
moving averages.
While I still have your attention, I want to thank you for your
high standard of comments over the years.
Best wishes,
Flack
Hot Fund Takes Wrong Turn: Marketfield Fund @Skeeter:
Good call Skeet. I remember it. I hope I gave no advice back than. It would have been wrong - in the near-term anyway.
My thinking remains that, as alternative strategies go, these guys have a good longer term track record and should be given some slack. I don't like or invest in these go-anywhere funds - but if I wanted one as a longer term hold (measured in decades not
years) I'd select this one. When money washes out in torrents, as it has with this fund, it distorts the investing process for the managers and amplifies the losses. In the end, the blame falls on the managers for not restricting inflows. I wish there was a way to quantify the degree of impact on a fund such "hot" money has both on the incoming side and the outgoing side. I'd think it's a substantial impact.
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BTW: The board represents a wide variety of investing styles and philosophies. I learn from all. We're much more focused on not losing $$ than on making it. We're nearly 20
years into retirement and pull distributions directly from our "mishmash" of mutual funds. Over the
years we've gravitated more and more to the conservative hybrids like TRRIX- but still make occasional small sector bets as I've done on energy/natural resources this year. Stability is very important and we view diversification as key to protecting our nest egg - though it sometimes means sacrificing near term performance.
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Thanks for all your great contributions over the year Old Skeet. I very much respect that you have a plan founded on fundamentals that works for you and are willing to share with the rest of us.
My New Year's Resolution? ..... Not to give any investment advice!
:)
Hot Fund Takes Wrong Turn: Marketfield Fund BINGO!
Among alternative strategy funds, HSGFX may boast the most consistent performance. 9% annual losses 3 years running. Negative for 10+ years. Try funding your retirement on that.
Definition of Insanity: Doing the same thing over and over - and expecting different results.
Josh Brown: 2014: The Year That Nothing Worked
Bridgeway Large Cap Growth (BRLGX) I own BWLAX, American Beacon Bridgeway which is a large cap value fund and I am well pleased, thus far, with its performance. It is available in other share classes and the no sales load thicker is BWLIX. You might want to do a performance analysis between BWLIX and BRLGX. Over the past ten
years (period of time) BWLIX edges out BRLGX.
I have lniked its Morningstar report for those that might be interested in taking a look.
It is rated five stars by M*.
http://quotes.morningstar.com/fund/f?t=BWLIXBWLAX is held in the growth area of my portfolio in my large/mid cap sleeve and is one of six funds held within this sleeve; and, it accounts for just short of ten percent of the sleeve's value.
Old_Skeet
Bridgeway Large Cap Growth (BRLGX) I think Bridgeway is the best quant shop out there available to retail investors. The main manager, John Montgomery, treats investors very well. I'd look at BRAGX, their flagship, go anywhere fund too. BRAGX, like the other funds in that family, including BRLGX, had a couple of disasterous years in their but great long-term records.
If you look at Bridgeway's web site, you'll see it has tons of literature and they do say explicitly that they believe (contrary to some recent theories) that higher volatility is necessary if you want higher rewards.
If you like quant funds, or want at least one for diversification. I would seriously consider Bridgeway, either BRLGX if you're lacking large growth or BRAGX, but then you'll have to prepare for a bumpy ride.
Bridgeway Large Cap Growth (BRLGX) In fact, PYSAX has a VERY good history, since its manager David Glancy was the manager of Fidelity Leveraged Stock FLVCX during its glorious first 4 years. It was not doing well last year though...
Bridgeway Large Cap Growth (BRLGX) I have PYSAX (load waived through Schwab) for my mid/large growth. It does not have quite that long history, but has done very well since its inception a little over five years back. A little different animal though.
Barry Ritholtz: The Basic Simple Truths Of Investing
Has anyone investigated the Matthew 25 fund MXXVX ? >> not many funds have beaten the SP500 3% annualized for the past 20 years.
Correct, not many, though you mean 19y, right?
FLPSX is one. There may be some Vanguard likewise.
One thing that is interesting is that it began its 08-09 dive a full year prior, oddly. It is since the bottom (spring 09) that it has raced past everyone. Even FLVCX, amazingly. But that is only 5.5y.