I have done more than that and never lost more than 1% from any last top since retiring in 2018.
The "secrets" are 1) Mostly owning 2-3 bond funds at a huge % 2) switching bond fund = good timing 3) avoiding market losses.
There's no easy way to do it with low volatility. It took me over 20 years to master my system.
See how I did it at (link).

tyvm

Hi @larryB
One item that tempers folks from getting crazy with flipping monies in a 529 is the first set of 'rules' established by the gov't. regarding 529's. ONLY 1 change/exchange per calendar year to investment sectors. A few years ago, this was expanded to 2 portfolio changes/exchanges of holdings per calendar year. And of course, the investment style choices are the more standard choices. No exotic stuff.
If you're curious, a LIST of investment styles/choices at the Utah 529. Mostly Vanguard, some DFA and some state choices.
They're almost 'free' with some .02 ER's. There are also small, periodic administrative charges ($15), which is common with 529's.

Hi @yogibearbull
I probably should have clarified a bit more.
--- The Utah 529 Educational Saving Plan LINK
--- We didn't care for the vendor of the Michigan 529 plan at the time (2006). We missed the state tax deduction that would have been available; but we are very pleased with the Utah 529. A very well operated program with a lot of investment choices. One may choose established mixes by age; or as we did, and we built our own choices.
--- The annual re-balance is a feature of the Utah 529 contract. I don't really care for this aspect; as we would prefer to let the gains remain for the equity and bond portions. We've not asked, but suspect the program wants to temper the portfolio from becoming lopsided. But, this has worked out okay over the long time frame.
--- We did NOT need to use an advisor
--- And yes about Secure Act 2.0. As everything stands at this time, monies will move to the beneficiary Roth IRA (per the $35k total and the annual maximum at this time). The Roth has been active for more than 5 years. Even with the possibility of a costly Master's program, the return on the investments currently is running ahead far enough for such an expense.
NOTE: the symbols shown previous have changed (per Vanguard) two times during our investment period in these holdings. But, the fund descriptions have NOT changed. VITPX and VBMPX are still valid symbols.

@catch22: the 50/50 equity/bond portfolio is reset to 50/50 each September, per the contract
Unclear what kind of "contract"? Did you use one of the 2 annual exchanges allowed to rebalance, or a 529 advisor did it for you?
Was 529 all used up? SECURE 2.0 allows some residual funds (in 15+ year old 529 for funds in account for 5+ years) to be transferred to beneficiary's Roth IRA.

Catch. I like that a lot. At the end of the 18 years it probably beats chasing the fund of the hour every month. Less work, less stress , less second guessing yourself. My old man used to say, “you can second guess yourself to death Sonny boy !” Of course that plan would be highly regarded over at bogleheads and not be part of the MFO lifestyle. After all isn’t MFO all about finding “the best” funds and perpetually moving from one to the next as things inevitably change? Just sayin.

A real world example of a very lazy portfolio using two index funds.
Criteria:
--- 529 education account, open for 18 years
--- inception, May 2006
--- self directed with self choice(s) of investment sectors
--- 13 years of contributions (1st and 15th of each month) = $ cost averaging
--- 5 years to date; no additional contributions
--- the 50/50 equity/bond portfolio is reset to 50/50 each September, per the Utah 529 contract
The institutional funds (for 529 accounts) are VITPX (U.S. Total stock market) and VBMPX (U.S. Total IG bond market). All distributions reinvested in the fund(s).
The annualized returns data are from Vanguard, M* and the 529 account.
--- annualized 15 year combined return = 8.125%
--- YTD return = 10.47%
Remain curious,
Catch

I sold out of GQGIX after a 20% run up since a 4Q23 purchase. It feels a bit rich, and certainly has gotten quite big for an EM fund at ~$23B AUM. An 11% allocation to NVDA/AVGO certainly provided a boost over the past 2 years, but could also serve as a boat anchor if/when NVDA orders start to slow.

...also interesting that no one has mentioned bitcoin...are we just a bunch of older dudes fighting the last war or are we going to open our minds and skate to where the puck is headed not where it is and has been?
Looking forward for this exercise, I am considering "continuity of fund managers", what are their ages and what is the bench strength and financial soundness of the fund company?

What is this "bitcoin" you speak of?
As regards fund managers, I keep looking at AQR funds. They stunk it up a few years back, and then changed out a bunch of their managers. Since then, they have been performing very well. Can they be trusted?
HMEZX - a super steady merger-arb fund, but the Fund Manager (Dondero) has a checkered past. Is there hidden risk there?

I have done more than that and never lost more than 1% from any last top since retiring in 2018.
The "secrets" are 1) Mostly owning 2-3 bond funds at a huge % 2) switching bond fund = good timing 3) avoiding market losses.
There's no easy way to do it with low volatility. It took me over 20 years to master my system.
See how I did it at (link).

I noticed nobody has proposed for consideration a portfolio solely made up of ETFs...kind of surprising as there are many model portfolio's like that floating out there..."The Lazy Portfolio", the three ETF portfolio, etc...
Also find it interesting that some are looking at past results as a comparison...last 15 years relatively low inflation until recently...also tremendous fiscal and monetary stimulus. Who knows that the future holds...some of you might remember a few years ago when I mentioned high grade rubies, you can fit a million dollar of them in your sock and no one would know..also interesting that no one has mentioned bitcoin...are we just a bunch of older dudes fighting the last war or are we going to open our minds and skate to where the puck is headed not where it is and has been?
Looking forward for this exercise, I am considering "continuity of fund managers", what are their ages and what is the bench strength and financial soundness of the fund company? Maybe need some international exposure as what if dollar weakens substantially?
What other inputs are folks pondering that maybe haven't been discussed yet?

Excellent topic @JD_co
As you realize, PRPFX wasn’t a recommendation. But I was struck by how close that +6.98% was to your hypothetical 7% goal. Like you, I prefer to diversify well beyond a single fund - no matter how good it is. The biggest problem, I think, is that shorter term (5-10 years) anything can happen, and so trying to extrapolate future return armed only with a decade’s historical performance is tough and might not lead to your desired result.
As a very conservative investor, I use 3 funds only for trying to gage daily volatility and yearly return. They are not benchmarks. They are not goals. They are simply markers for what I think a conservative investor might reasonably expect to earn over time with very limited volatility. I do not own any of these.
AOK - Globally diversified. 30% equity / 70% fixed income. Relies on index funds. Low ER
TRRIX - A fund of funds from T. Rowe Price. 40% equity / 60% fixed income. Moderate ER
ABRZX - An “alternative” style investment from Invesco. Stocks, bonds, commodities (including precious metals). Attempts to hedge market risk using derivatives. ER exceeds 1%
Over the past 15 years the 3 have averaged +5.40% annually. TRRIX led the pack with a slightly better 6.07% return over that period. Sound bad? For some perspective I compared that number to T. Rowe’s short-term bond fund PRWBX. It has returned +1.86% annually over the same period.
*** I should have checked VWINX, arguably the gold standard, for conservative funds. True to form VWINX has topped all three of my afore mentioned tracking funds with a +7.06 15 year average return. However, not that much better thanPRPFX’s +6.98% return over the same period. Personally, I’d pick PRPFX over VWINX, being willing to sacrifice the 0.08% advantage enjoyed by VWINX for better inflation protection.

Would you settle for only 6.98%? That’s the annualized return of PRPFX over 15 years according to M*. If I were going to own just one fund, that would be my choice. Over that 15 year period the fund’s worst year was 2008 when it lost -8.36%. Its best year was 2003 when it gained +20.45%. (These numbers came from Yahoo Finance.)

My son just opened TRP acct. Everything went smoothly until attempting to link his credit union acct with TRP. Sorry, we are unable.... Feces.
He STILL refuses to get a credit card. Prefers cash and debit card. Dunno if that factors in.

An entire generation has been conditioned to think debit cards = credit cards. I would never use a debit card for everyday purchases primarily since the consumer protections are not as strong as they are on credit cards.
People forget that if you responsibily pay your credit card bills off every month, it's no different than using a debit card (from our perspective) ... but that means banks are paying more for interchange fees and consumer protections, plus they're not making $$ from you on interest or potential overdraft fees and stores hate paying banks to accept credit cards. So it's no wonder why banks (and stores) prefer people use debit v credit.

I have a CC and debit card. Here's something I read online years ago, that I never thought of, and why I NEVER use my debit card for online purchases:
When using a CC, if there's some problem -- no matter who's at fault -- you have plenty of time to dispute it, and you don't have to pay it until it's settled.
With a debit card the purchase comes out of your bank account immediately. If there's some problem with the purchase and even if it's in your favor, you have to get the money BACK from the vendor -- which may or may not be a PITA.

The best thing is to not get a debit card at all to avoid any and all risk to the attached account. While a debit card is typically the default, most banks will, upon request, issue a plain vanilla ATM card. It can only be used to withdraw cash (with a PIN) and cannot be used to make purchases.

[...]
3. Status of M* Discussions - it's nowhere on the new M* Home, but does continue as a separate site hosted by Salesforce under the M* label.
So, the new M* website rollout was fine and there were no problems as were feared just a few days ago.

Regarding the current status of M* Discussions, I say good riddance. Until a few years ago it was a terrific site, but its now become the primary domain of a single poster.
More or less totally useless to serious investors, unfortunately. Excepting, of course, yogi's contributions.

@hank, I would hesitate to call any duration bond fund as a "hedge." It is a volatility damper or ballast, but IMHO only cash or T-bills or a skilled execution of a puts/shorts/options strategy constitutes a true "hedge".

It’s probably age showing. We old folks have a tendency to live in the past. However, in 2008 I was happy to hold Price’s GNMA fund (PRGMX). It rose +5.62% that year while the S&P tumbled about - 38%. PRGMX also posted returns in the vicinity of 6% in the year before (2007) and the year after (2009). I don’t have the fund’s duration at the time, it’s typically about a 5-7 years. Even better was Price’s Long-Term Treasury Bond Index (PRULX) which rose +23% in 2008. Tell me longer dated high quality bonds aren’t a good equity hedge.
If you’re wondering how cash performed back then, 2008 began with the FOMC overnight lending rate at 3.5% and ended with the rate at 2.0%.

My son just opened TRP acct. Everything went smoothly until attempting to link his credit union acct with TRP.
Was he trying to link his CU account to TRP (i.e. have the TRP account recognize the CU account), or was he trying to link TRP to his CU account (i.e. have his CU recognize the TRP account)?
While I haven't tried linking accounts at TRP in many years, I do know that at Vanguard you generally cannot link Vanguard accounts to outside institutions. The one exception is Vanguard Cash Plus, that's specifically designed for moving cash.
Even with that account (from VG): "***Some third-party institutions may not accept the Cash Plus Account routing number for transactions. If you have any issues using the routing number on a third-party website, contact the provider." I've had that problem, though Fidelity (the institution I was trying to link to) handled it manually.
TRP may be similar.

Thanks for the note, msf.
Yes, he was just doing what all businesses these days prefer that we do: to have the ability to electronically send $$$ by ACH. It would have been easier if TRP could have directly grabbed the money from his account at the credit union, eh? So, my son gave TRP his checking acct. number and the routing number for the CU. That particular CU is GASCU, out of Glendale, CA. They dropped the customary "F" (federal) some years ago. Privately insured deposits now. Dunno if that enters into the snafu. So, Sean (son) will just have to write a check from his account and send it to TRP in Balto. But I told him last night that I'd love to know what the problem was. So, I'm going to push him to find out, once his account is funded. The entire sign-up process went smoothly apart from that.

@ rfono I know of three credit bureaus most usually mentioned but are there two others?
I have had a credit freeze for years. When I called the provider offering credit monitoring from one my many hacks, they said a credit freeze prevents them from monitoring your account.
We have had our data hacked so many times I have lost count.

We have changed banks about every five years, driven away by some disaster or another. Once it was data related, ie they lost an unencrypted data file with all our info on it. Usually it is bad customer service, usually with a national bank, or our cute local bank gets bought out.
BOA was the worse. We stuck with WF because of decent local branch staff in CT, but now are down to $3000 in account.
Currently we use a local bank with only regional footprint, still mutually owned. They have notary, easy access and locations. Of course they pay zip on account but it is easy to move money there when needed.

My son just opened TRP acct. Everything went smoothly until attempting to link his credit union acct with TRP. Sorry, we are unable.... Feces.
He STILL refuses to get a credit card. Prefers cash and debit card. Dunno if that factors in.

An entire generation has been conditioned to think debit cards = credit cards. I would never use a debit card for everyday purchases primarily since the consumer protections are not as strong as they are on credit cards.
People forget that if you responsibily pay your credit card bills off every month, it's no different than using a debit card (from our perspective) ... but that means banks are paying more for interchange fees and consumer protections, plus they're not making $$ from you on interest or potential overdraft fees and stores hate paying banks to accept credit cards. So it's no wonder why banks (and stores) prefer people use debit v credit.

I have a CC and debit card. Here's something I read online years ago, that I never thought of, and why I NEVER use my debit card for online purchases:
When using a CC, if there's some problem -- no matter who's at fault -- you have plenty of time to dispute it, and you don't have to pay it until it's settled.
With a debit card the purchase comes out of your bank account immediately. If there's some problem with the purchase and even if it's in your favor, you have to get the money BACK from the vendor -- which may or may not be a PITA.

My son just opened TRP acct. Everything went smoothly until attempting to link his credit union acct with TRP.
Was he trying to link his CU account to TRP (i.e. have the TRP account recognize the CU account), or was he trying to link TRP to his CU account (i.e. have his CU recognize the TRP account)?
While I haven't tried linking accounts at TRP in many years, I do know that at Vanguard you generally cannot link Vanguard accounts to outside institutions. The one exception is Vanguard Cash Plus, that's specifically designed for moving cash.
Even with that account (from VG): "***Some third-party institutions may not accept the Cash Plus Account routing number for transactions. If you have any issues using the routing number on a third-party website, contact the provider." I've had that problem, though Fidelity (the institution I was trying to link to) handled it manually.
TRP may be similar.