Reply to Derf:
1. I cannot say or recommend what you should do with regard to buying individual stocks because I do not know how it fits in with your current investment portfolio and temperament. You certainly can purchase or average into some of the ETFs or ETNs that have been beaten down and increase your exposure to the energy sector.
2. Regarding your MF managers: Your MF managers SHOULD be looking for bargains and unjustly beaten down stocks and scaling into them . However, most will act as if they are "deer caught in the headlights" and do nothing until well after the fact because they are seeking a false "margin of safety". AFTER these stocks have bounced back and gained 25% to 50% in a few months they will THEN have their security blankets and begin nibbling. How can you tell which of your MFs have managers that are investors or deer?
Very simple. Take each MF you have and look it up on Morningstar (M*). Click on "Performance" and then click on "Expanded View". This will show your fund's performance year-by-year for the past ten years. Now, go to the year 2009, which is when the bear market ended and the market reversed violently to the upside, and see how your MF did compared to its peers, i.e., compared to the average for its M* sector. If your fund did not outperform its peers in 2009 then its manager was asleep at the switch or frozen with fear and did not buy stocks when they were extreme bargains.
As an example: WSCVX (Walthausen SC Value fund) returned 42.39% in 2009 compared to the M* SCV average of 31.32% in 2009. Clearly, Walthausen scooped up value stocks and the fund lived up to its name. OAKLX (Oakmark Select) is another example of a fund whose manager, Bill Nygren, bought aggressively at the bottom, returning 52.46% versus the LC blend average of 24.29% for that year.

A 50% decline in the price of WTI crude over the past three months without any fundamental change from what has/had occurred throughout the first half of the year, and the extreme selloffs in many energy stocks and other stocks with peripheral association to oil is a gift from the gods. In any given 1-2 year period there is a stock market black swan event that is totally unexpected and unrelated to the fundamentals. Rather, it is an emotion-driven event that takes on a life of its own, overshooting to the upside or downside. This is an extraordinary investing opportunity and you should have already made your Xmas shopping list and be averaging into the best of the stocks and ETFs that have been decimated.
Examples:
1. Mid and small cap energy stocks: WLL, OAS, CXO, CLR. These are NOT stocks with extraordinary debt or leverage within their sector and they have declined between 50% to 70% in just 3-4 months. WLL already trades well below book value.
2. ETFs: energy exploration & production (PXE, PXI).
MLPs (MLPI, MLPX)
3. MLPs: EPD, MMP, PAA, WPZ. These are companies that transport oil or natural gas and are involved in various aspects of the energy infrastructure. A high percentage of their revenues come from long-term, fee-based contracts with built-in price escalators. They will get paid regardless of the price of WTI crude and the energy demand in the US shows little sign of abating. The U.S. is not in a recession nor does anyone really see one on the horizon based upon recent employment data, retail sales figures, corporate profits, etc., These stocks have sold off about 20% in three months and they pay dividends between 4% to 8% (WPZ).
4. GLOG (GasLog): Off nearly 50% from its high this year, price:book ratio of 1.5 and a nearly 3% dividend. This stock is involved in liquid natural gas cargo transport and the price of WTI crude should not logically result in a loss of 50% NAV. Do you really think the demand for inexpensive natural gas by emerging market countries and European countries that are totally dependent upon imports for their energy needs will evaporate for the remainder of the decade??
5. Transports: Specifically, the railroad stocks: GBX, TRN, CP, CNI. Railroad stocks with ANY exposure to transport of oil have also been dragged down, even if oil transport makes up a small fraction of their total business.
6. Chemical stocks: WLK, LYB. Both stocks are involved in oil refining and production of gasoline additives although this is not a majority of their businesses. Both have lost 45% in the past three months and LYB sports a dividend approaching 4%.
I could go on but the point is obvious: if you are not slowly buying ETFs and top quality stocks that are now on sale by averaging in you need to ask yourself what you are waiting for. Are you the same "investor(s)" that would not buy stocks or ETFs in March 2009 after the S&P 500 had lost 55% of its value because you were waiting for it to decline another 20% ?? Because the CNBC "experts" said the S&P 500 was going to decline to 400 or 500 and the world's financial system was going to collapse and vaporize??
FWIW, I am slowly buying into many of the above names with the understanding and expectation that my initial positions will lose between 5% to 25% over the next month or two. However, that is why one slowly scales into a position. When the turn does come it will literally happen overnight and these stocks will gain 5% to 10% a day for several consecutive days and then you will say that you've missed the turn and it is too late to get in.
These are not dot.com stocks or biotech stocks with promising Phase I or Phase II trials for a single drug. These are established, well run businesses with very real assets and earnings. You will not catch the precise bottom but 2 or 3 years from now these will be very profitable investments and you will ask yourself why you missed this investing opportunity.

Here is an update about the recent performance of ICMUX. Per M*, its performance since 8/31/14 and the performance of some other funds mentioned in this thread are as follows:
ICMUX: -4.4%
RPHYX: +0.3%
RSIVX: -0.8%
DLINX: -0.6%
M* High Yield Bond Index: -4.4%
Per M*, ICMUX has an effective duration of only 1.19 years and has 34% allocated to cash. But, its loss since 8/31/14 is as great at M*'s high yield bond index!
Looking at their holdings, there is a substantial allocation to the energy sector including the top two holdings. This probably explains the size of the loss.
Perhaps this fund will rebound quickly and demonstrate the difference between volatility and risk. Allocating some of their cash at the right time could help.
But, recent performance suggests ICMUX is a market cycle fund and not a fund for someone looking for a smooth ride and an easy exit if the need might arise to sell shares in a relatively short period of time.

FYI:
Regards,
Ted
WSJ Slant: http://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-stock-futures-drop-along-with-oil-prices-1418390833
Bloomberg Slant: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2014-12-12/u-s-index-futures-fall-after-s-p-500-rebound-as-oil-outlook-cut.html
Reuters Slant: http://www.reuters.com/assets/print?aid=USKBN0JP1DA20141212
MarketWatch Slant: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stocks-end-with-biggest-weekly-decline-in-years-2014-12-12
Markets At A Glance: http://markets.wsj.com/us
Sector Tracker: http://www.sectorspdr.com/sectorspdr/tools/sector-tracker

I should take a closer look at Fidelity equity funds - I'd pretty much given up on them for several years (with exceptions like FLPSX). FSDIX looks interesting, though I've always had problems fitting hybrid funds into my portfolio.
I'm not clear on the point of FGRTX, for a couple of reasons. First, why single out these companies - can you find a large cap fund that doesn't already have Apple? Why overweight megacaps?
Second, megacaps would appear to be the portion of the market least likely to benefit from active management. One can get a pure megacap passive fund like OEF (iShares S&P 100), or the more concentrated, and even cheaper, BRLIX (Bridgeway Blue Chip 35 Index)?
Regarding FLPSX ... about a decade ago, I listened to a M* analyst talk about Tillinghast, describing how he could talk intelligently about every one of the hundreds of stocks in the portfolio. He added that this skill was well beyond what he'd seen in any other manager. The comments were in response to the usual question of how big can the fund get. It seems to keep going strong.
I ascribe its underperformance in the past few years to the large percentage of foreign holdings in its portfolio. I feel that in the long run, a large percentage of foreign stocks is a plus. Though I wonder why M* doesn't reclassify the fund as a world stock fund, as it did for MQIFX Mutual Quest (formerly Mutual Qualified).
Finally, as a short term play on healthcare, if one wants to make a political wager, it might make sense to pick up FSMEX (medical supply and equipment). If there's any part of ACA likely to be jettisoned, it's the excise tax on medical devices. I don't know how much of an impact that would have, I'm bad with sectors in general, and I don't do short term trading. So consider the source of that suggestion.

Hi BobC and All Contributors,
Thank you all for your perceptive contributions. BobC, you helped focus my attention and I agree with many of your keen and penetrating insights. You are spot on-target.
Jeffrey Gundlach has certainly prospered from a long and controversial career that included his heated and forced departure from TCW. His continued success story in the bond market is undeniable. He is definitely a serious forecaster who deserves respect.
Here is a Link that provides viewgraphs from his 2014 forward looking expectations:
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2014/01/Gundlah Year of the Horse.pdf
According to Advisor Perspectives, his 2013 projections were not all that solid. Nobody has a perfect record in the investment business. Even some of his 2014 predictions seem to be heading, perhaps momentarily, in the wrong direction. According to some folks in the industry, Gundlach is an arrogant, overly confident guru; that’s a necessary characteristic. It’s very acceptable given his superior track performance, but buyer beware.
Here is a Link to Advisor Perspectives’ interpretation of Gundlach’s 2014 projections:
http://www.advisorperspectives.com/newsletters14/Gundlachs_Forecast_for_2014.php
Regardless of his many successes and a few failures, I remain hugely suspicious of any long-term economic forecasts, especially from the macroeconomic community. These have a sad historical accuracy record. The odds deteriorate with time.
All of professor Phil Tetlock’s numerous forecaster accuracy studies consistently demonstrate the futility of these exercises. It is a daunting challenge to forecast even the next quarter’s outcome, and a near impossibility to look 10 years into the future. Accuracy degrades rapidly over time, especially among the economists cohort who seem to be very fragile in the forecasting arena. According to studies that date back into the 1930s, forecasters can’t forecast.
Like Catch22, I too like MFO poster bflotomny’s original balanced mutual fund portfolio. Both the Vanguard Wellington and Wellesley funds have proven performance records. I have held both these Vanguard products in my portfolio for over 20 years. I also have held a third Balance fund, Dodge and Cox Balance mutual fund, for over 2 decades. This formidable triad gives me geographic management thinking diversification.
Thanks again for an excellent set of submittals. This includes everyone. I concur that no immediate action is necessary.
Best Regards.

Currently --- USA, China, Japan, Europe are all worried about and trying to avoid deflation.
If interest rates rise there will be external pressure for the USA to institute a VAT, slowing economic growth and lowering inflation - look at Europe and Japan.
Longer term --- the world population is going from 7B in 2000 to 10B in 2050 - that is a 42.8% increase. The world went from 1B in 1800 to 10B in 250 years. USA, China, Japan, Europe populations are ageing during this time while the growth in population is in 3rd world countries. The effects are wide ranging - research it.
I know I'm going against the trend but I would be more concerned about deflation.

That's a fascinating analysis, Dex, especially with your added comments. It will be very interesting to see what types of response this gets from our regular contributors.
I say that because over the years, when I've posted articles & links dealing with evolving world financial & political situations, as opposed to articles directly involving right-this very-minute investing, there has been almost no interest at all. It seems to me that some of our most successful investors, such as Ted just to name one, pay absolutely no attention to this type of "background info", and sometimes run circles around me, maybe because I get too cautious. Drives me nuts, to tell you the truth.

FYI: Though large-cap stock mutual funds are outperforming this year, they have trailed their small- and midcap counterparts the past 15 years.
A $10,000 investment in the average big-cap fund on Sept. 30, 1999, would have grown to $19,404. The same investment would have grown to $39,477 in midcap funds, $42,472 in small-cap funds and $21,566 in the S&P 500, according to Morningstar Inc. data.
Regards,
Ted
http://license.icopyright.net/user/viewFreeUse.act?fuid=MTg3MzkwOTg=
Enlarged Graphic: http://news.investors.com/photopopup.aspx?path=WEBlv120914.gif&docId=729670&xmpSource=&width=1000&height=1152&caption=&id=729671

i switched a bunch of POAGX for PRHSX a week or two ago and am glad i did, so far. actually wish i'd switched it all, so far. but it does worry me that the health-care chorus is all singing a single note. then again, i thought the same thing one year ago and two years ago, when i first started buying PRHSX. at some point, the sector does have to go belly up for a while, right? the fact that, near as i can tell, it's *never* really happened, doesn't mean it won't, right? (p.s., like Kevin, I too have been buying PQTIX, hoping that it'll provide some cover when the doody hits the fan.)

Howdy @JohnChisum
We've held FRIFX for several years; a conservative fund, equity/bond mix. A farily smooth and tame fund by normal real estate fund standards.
But, will remain with current healthcare holdings and keep an eye towards the energy related area.
You got through the storm okay, yes?
Catch

I thought I was a little crazy buying Vghcx at $187 a share. Been happy with it, as I have PRHSX, but DCA into that funds years ago.

The term "investor" tends to be used too broadly in investment product contexts yet, being that a majority of middle age workers are underfunded in their retirement plans, a 7% return from these products won't get these "investors" very far in accumulating assets. A different question to ponder should be, how can they invest in order to achieve "excess" returns in order to secure a decent retirement lifestyle ( similar to what they've been used to ) ?
An Employee Benefit Research Institute (EBRI) study polled
workers age 55 and older who said the following about their retirement savings:
60% have less than $100,000 in retirement savings
43% have saved less than $25,000
36% have saved less than $10,000
Further, it is a little known fact that healthcare premiums have risen by a 7% compounded rate over the past 15 years. An inflation adjusted return from a "balanced fund" won't even cover this essential expense. https://docs.google.com/document/d/1UyAulQv9gUgjq5g-TUrs_Wa7lbIEQ3K72StlUVewoKw/edit?usp=sharing
This population will need to produce returns via programs that can produce steeper expected return trajectories with risk mitigation. https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1Ua-R53o7c588nUr705hY4YaBEcG1qOrNvtonQIwpVws/edit?usp=sharing

I am really conflicted....VGHCX hit a dollar threshold where it's due for a 30% haircut per my established portfolio guidelines. The problem is, it's been on fire and I may look back on this as a foolish and profit limiting re-balancing exercise. I am thinking about just letting the year-end distribution go to cash, and then direct that to the divi payors I had earmarked for the larger allocation.
Frankly, I admit this is not the worst problem to have.

Nice problem to have. With long term persistent smooth upward momentum (something Junkster would be proud to own) why not monitor for a 20 or 50 day crossovers to the 200dma. No sell signals over this last three years using this method.
Here's an article from Seeking Alpha that might be of interest:
no-one-ever-went-broke-taking-profits

FYI: REITs have become increasingly popular over the years as investors continue to search for yield in the current ultra-low rate environment. Given this huge demand from investors, issuers are lining up with products to quench their thirst.
Following the trend, Fidelity recently filed a product focused on the REIT space. Though the issuer has not as yet disclosed some of the key details like expense ratio and ticker symbol, we have highlighted those details that were available.
Regards,
Ted
http://www.zacks.com/stock/news/156517/fidelity-plans-new-reit-etf?article_id=156517&type=BLOG

Mr.Ritholtz(Barry) suggests all century as he believes Anthony Robbins is data mining by picking years start and stop carefully.
I suspect we would all agree that Barry's is better though some of us would make different suggestions
http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/get-there/why-the-all-weather-portfolio-is-a-wash-out/2014/12/05/ca580a2e-7be3-11e4-9a27-6fdbc612bff8_story.html?tid=hpModule_79c38dfc-8691-11e2-9d71-f0feafdd1394&hpid=z14

According to Schwab's 11-page 2015 global outlook, we can throw out everything we think we know about EMs, commodities, and a strong dollar. Excerpts:
"A strong dollar, weak commodity prices and solid emerging market stock performance ... can coexist in the environment we foresee for a few key reasons:
"There are now far more commodity consumers than producers among emerging market stocks. ... Nearly 50% of the value of the companies in the MSCI Emerging Market Index is now in the financials and technology sectors. ... By and large, emerging market companies are not the commodity producers they are often believed to be—or were in the past.
"The China-driven commodity boom that coincided with strong emerging market performance is ending ... as China refocuses its growth. The transformation of where growth is coming from in China has been dramatic. Resource-heavy State Owned Enterprises now represent only about 25% of China’s GDP. ... A testament to the decoupling of Chinese stock market performance from commodity prices is the fact that over the past three years ending November 25, 2014, commodity prices ... are flat to down while the Hang Seng Index of Chinese stocks is up about 50% ....
"Emerging market countries have made structural changes. Smaller trade and budget deficits, larger foreign currency reserves, debt denominated in local currencies, and flexible exchange rates are leaving these countries much less vulnerable to an extended rise in the dollar than they were in the past."

FYI: Of the three top-performing sector mutual fund categories of the past 15 years, health care has come a long way to catch the other two leaders: real estate and energy.
A $10,000 investment in health care funds on Sept. 30, 1999, would have grown to $50,255 by Dec. 2 this year. That result trails $55,466 for real estate funds but surpasses energy funds' $46,485 and the S&P 500's $21,554, according to Morningstar data.
Regards,
Ted
http://license.icopyright.net/user/viewFreeUse.act?fuid=MTg3MzAxNDk=
Enlarged Graphic: http://news.investors.com/photopopup.aspx?path=WEBlvpent120504_1K.gif&docId=729245&xmpSource=&width=1000&height=1063&caption=&id=729237

@catch22: Thanks for the response. For your queries
1. I have not thought of any LB as yet. 2. other major holdings are PRHSX=18.3%, vpccx=14.8%,prwcx=13.0%, and vcvlx=9.4%, rest around 5% each. 3. no bond funds
4. SS+freelance work may cover 60% of need before taxes. Thats why I am essentilaly in equity funds. mid/small was at 67%, half of which was moved to VTSAX on reaching 60 ( 1+ years ago)

with 4 years to stop working and start medicare, do you think the above weightage should be higher or can some moneys be moved to some other large blend fund to make a little extra?