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Hi STB65: I've listened to several interviews of Robert Shiller, 'co-inventor' of the CAPE, this year. He says it doesn't work for market timing. Also, he says it has been above 20 for the past 20 years. Shiller's website has the CAPE for every month from current to the distant past. I'm looking at the bear market from 2000-2002. At no time did the CAPE get below 20, never came close to its long term historical average. Even in the Oct 2007-March 2009 mega bear, the CAPE was above 20 until October 2008, and was back above 20 by the end of 2009. Waiting for the CAPE to tell you when to buy could be a very tough wait.
I think I believe in gross market timing (CAPE says the next 10 years will be low return if one buys the broad market at current levels), so it looks like I should let my monthly additions molder in cash.
In my IRA at TDA, EVBAX was relatively costly, as mentioned above, but there were no additional charges. This was a minimum investment to keep me attentive.
I think (hope) there is too much money waiting for an entry point for stocks to drop 30 -60%, and Gaffney's comment about the portion of Treasury debt that the Fed is buying suggests there is a high floor for the short term. I think I'll start adding money at the 10% drop and take the additional hit, if it occurs, and reassess if there is a 10 - 15% gain above the 10% drop. I don't think 2008 was a once in a lifetime event, but I don't think it was a once in a decade event.
@fundalarm: I haven't personally seen the original research on megacaps, but as you mention, supposedly they lead in the back half of bull markets. They also supposedly lead in bear markets.@rjb112: i don't necessarily follow mega caps.......the argument is that.......and, technically, large caps usually lead when the rally is mature -- like it is now.
*EPS here is earnings per shareAs the impact of US QE wanes, asset markets are set to enter the third of this four phase cycle. From here, credit spreads usually turn up but equities rally on further increases in EPS*. Notably, while in the 1980s and 1990s this phase lasted another 1-3 years, in 2007-08 it only lasted 4 months. History suggests that investors should favour equities over corporate bonds. Within the global equity markets, it is associated with bubbles and outperformance from growth, large-cap and cyclical stocks. This profitable but increasingly unstable period ends when global EPS turns down, which we do not expect in the next two years – Phase 4 is not imminent
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