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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • RE-DO, total return numbers, the quick method
    Howdy @rjb112 and @Charles, et al
    The recent thread regarding doom and gloom in September morphed into a "how in the heck do I find real and total return numbers for funds, etc."
    Several years ago I wandered from site to site in search of the "easy", for discovering total returns. I don't have enough time in my day now, to do math calculations and related; and continue to use Stockcharts.com to do all of the work for me. No subscription is required for this basic use. NOTE: newer funds may not be found for reference. I don't know what time frame is used by the site for inclusion.
    The link below is a reply to "rick" just two months ago about using Stockcharts.com. This link is to the entire thread, but you will find my reply to "rick" regarding Stockcharts, a tiny bit down the page. Use the "chart link" in the first reply to "rick" to take you to the Stockchart page; which is an active page that you may use.
    http://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/comment/43537/#Comment_43537
    This link is a short video regarding Stockcharts and their inclusion of dividends in calculations. You may find something of value with this.
    http://stockcharts.com/articles/mailbag/2014/01/how-can-i-plot-dividend-adjusted-data-and-unadjusted-data.html
    Lastly, it is my understanding that Smartmoney.com includes all distributions for total return numbers. I have not used their site for this purpose.
    Okay, I am away to finish walls and paint before the carpet folks arrive in a few days.
    Have a good one.....
    Catch
  • WealthTrack: Q&A With Kathleen Gaffney, Manager, Eaton Vance Bond Fund: Video Presentation

    I think I believe in gross market timing (CAPE says the next 10 years will be low return if one buys the broad market at current levels), so it looks like I should let my monthly additions molder in cash.

    In my IRA at TDA, EVBAX was relatively costly, as mentioned above, but there were no additional charges. This was a minimum investment to keep me attentive.
    I think (hope) there is too much money waiting for an entry point for stocks to drop 30 -60%, and Gaffney's comment about the portion of Treasury debt that the Fed is buying suggests there is a high floor for the short term. I think I'll start adding money at the 10% drop and take the additional hit, if it occurs, and reassess if there is a 10 - 15% gain above the 10% drop. I don't think 2008 was a once in a lifetime event, but I don't think it was a once in a decade event.
    Hi STB65: I've listened to several interviews of Robert Shiller, 'co-inventor' of the CAPE, this year. He says it doesn't work for market timing. Also, he says it has been above 20 for the past 20 years. Shiller's website has the CAPE for every month from current to the distant past. I'm looking at the bear market from 2000-2002. At no time did the CAPE get below 20, never came close to its long term historical average. Even in the Oct 2007-March 2009 mega bear, the CAPE was above 20 until October 2008, and was back above 20 by the end of 2009. Waiting for the CAPE to tell you when to buy could be a very tough wait.
    What did you mean by: "In my IRA at TDA, EVBAX was relatively costly"?
    I'm seeing it as a No Transaction Fee fund.
  • WealthTrack: Q&A With Kathleen Gaffney, Manager, Eaton Vance Bond Fund: Video Presentation
    After listening to the interview, I considered reducing my FAGIX and SPHIX holdings since they represented the majority of my high yield bond funds (my 403b is in Fido); but I checked the graph at M*, where they regained their return slope in about a year after 2008, so I am really conflicted. Therefore, I agree with AndyJ as to from what?
    I think I believe in gross market timing (CAPE says the next 10 years will be low return if one buys the broad market at current levels), so it looks like I should let my monthly additions molder in cash.
    RSIVX, RPHYX seemed to have flattened out or declined, but FSAHX may have shown a gasp of life. My hopes that I could park my "cash" in short term bond funds are now muted (especially since I have 40 X as much in the first 2 and the latter was positive on
    Fri, but it's only one day.)
    In my IRA at TDA, EVBAX was relatively costly, as mentioned above, but there were no additional charges. This was a minimum investment to keep me attentive.
    I think (hope) there is too much money waiting for an entry point for stocks to drop 30 -60%, and Gaffney's comment about the portion of Treasury debt that the Fed is buying suggests there is a high floor for the short term. I think I'll start adding money at the 10% drop and take the additional hit, if it occurs, and reassess if there is a 10 - 15% gain above the 10% drop. I don't think 2008 was a once in a lifetime event, but I don't think it was a once in a decade event.
  • WealthTrack: Q&A With Kathleen Gaffney, Manager, Eaton Vance Bond Fund: Video Presentation
    @Junkster Your notes of caution are appreciated. That having been said, I'm getting bored with index funds and need to have some fun in life (at least with a small portion of my portfolio).
    Performance chasing active fund managers, waiting one to three years as their performance tanks and then wondering what to do is no longer fun. That having been said, I still use some active managers, especially in the bond arena.
  • Causeway Funds in registration
    International Opps actually launched in 2009. And they do report the last five years' of performance in this prospectus. Sometimes fund companies do the dangedest things. In this case the fact that the same team runs both funds might account for the odd filing.
    David
  • How ETFs Define 'Quality"
    FYI: (Click On Article Title At Top Of Google Search)
    Quality stock investing" is the latest marketing meme in ETFs. But for some investors, it's a joke: How do you define "quality"? "Quality is the stuff I own, and crap is the stuff I don't own," quips Doug Sandler who, as co-manager of the RiverFront Moderate Growth & Income fund (ticker: RMIAX), owns one of the 18 quality ETFs, most of which have launched in the past three years. "When you hear managers say 'it was a low-quality rally,' it means all the stuff they didn't own worked. It's a nebulous term."
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.google.com/search?newwindow=1&q=how+ETFs+Define+"Quality"&oq=how+ETFs+Define+"Quality"&gs_l=serp.3...89498.110978.0.111518.45.38.0.1.1.2.106.2129.37j1.38.0....0...1c.1.52.serp..22.23.1296.vdpe1TOwRU8
  • As Brokers Urge IRA Rolllovers, Ex Workers Ditch Their Low-Fee Federal Retirement Plan
    I have a neighbor who worked his 40 years as a federal employees. Yet his knowledge of saving for retirement is lacking to say the least. It is all too common that many do not wish to be informed and the are easy prey by these brokers.
  • Five Religion Funds For Faith-Based Investors
    FYI: Mutual funds that practice faith-based investing may be no more exciting than a font of still holy water or the worn cover of a Koran. But over the years, these funds have proved that you don’t have to sacrifice your spiritual values when it comes to investing.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.kiplinger.com/printstory.php?pid=12726
  • WealthTrack: Q&A With Kathleen Gaffney, Manager, Eaton Vance Bond Fund: Video Presentation
    @rjb112 I agree with you 100%. It is much easier for me to find managers that add value in the bond arena, rather than equities. Gaffney, PIMCO, Loomis Sayles and DoubleLine are all favorites.
    Like many here, I'm not a market timer but do believe, on a short-intermediate term basis, there may not be a lot of room for the markets to run. So, contrary to some advice given here, I'm moving slowly and cautiously into alternatives, primarily long/short and managed futures.
    When the equity markets turn south, will favorites here such as YAFFX and FPACX provide shelter as they did in the October 2007-March 2009 timeframe? At the risk of sounding trite, an active manager has to get out and then back in at the right times. Yacktman, for one, looks like he got out several years too early.
  • MF newsletter monthly read - bonds prices
    © 2014 Tom Madell, Ph.D.
    What do MFOers know about this guy?
    Has he given good advice over the years?
    What's his record like?
    I'm not familiar with him.
  • The Cash Conundrum
    I think you're wise, Old Skeet. I think I'm going to raise my cash stake a little.
    On the other hand, acecdotally at least it seems that a lot of people feel as we do -- I don't hear a lot of people saying they're all in -- so probably there's a lot of cash on the sidelines and any dip will be limited.
    I remember coming across a saying that the term for overvalued assets getting even more overvalued is... a bull market. It could go on for a few years more. That's my guess, but my cash levels right now are so low (5%) that it can't hurt to raise them a bit.
    Just Saturday morning musings, not based on data or anything.
  • The Cash Conundrum
    Hi Ted and others,
    I can remember within the past five years where my money market funds were paying a yield of about four percent, or so. My CD's were paying in the five percent range and as the yield dropped, as they began to mature, I began to take some of this cash and make some special investments.
    During the last couple of years the market has been on a strong upward march, for the most part, with little volatility. My spiff (special investment) positions relied on volatility and were basically swing trades. I'd buy a position on a pullback and then sell it after it reached my goal or I felt it had topped out. These were very productive for me and my concept was working well. Now with little volatility, over the past couple of years, and only an occasional dip the swing trades are now hard to come by.
    So ... What's an investor to do?
    I chose to do nothing. Sometimes, there is just nothing for one to do unless I wished to expand my play book. Since, I held a good amount of short term bond funds and I had also selected other funds where the manager had reduced duration ... Well, there was just nothing left, to do within my cash and within the fixed income areas of my portfolio. I now sit on a good sizeable pile of cash ... about 20% of my overall portfolio. Now, that leaves the other 80% as a work horse, so to speak. And, folks, that is where I am currently postured as I feel both bonds and stocks are for the most part overbought. It want be this way forever … so I am sitting tight until an opportunity comes my way and manage my risk by maintaining my asset allocation towards the conserative side.
    Again, sometimes there is nothing, or little, to do.
    Old_Skeet
  • The Great Emereging Markets Rebound
    EM Blogs From Barrons
    BRAZIL: Brazil slipped into recession,
    The Market Vectors Russia ETF (RSX) tumbled nearly 2% Friday, ending a disappointing week for bulls who have been pouring money into the fund this month.
    INDIA: India’s Pres. Narendra Modi heads to Japan to forge new bonds at the expense of China.
    http://blogs.barrons.com/emergingmarketsdaily/2014/08/29/emerging-markets-week-in-review-2/?mod=yahoobarrons&ru=yahoo
    South Korea:
    Industrial production in July rose by 1.1%, much greater than the 0.3% consensus.
    Japan had the opposite of Korea. Its industrial production disappointed, creating dilemma for its policymakers
    http://blogs.barrons.com/asiastocks/2014/08/29/asia-evening-roundup-korea-ip-jumps-japan-sinks/
    For the week ending August 27, of the $1.2 billion that went into emerging markets, $0.8 billion, or about two-thirds, went into China. This is the 12th consecutive week of inflows.
    Bloomberg reported the largest China ETF, the iShares Large Cap China ETF (FXI), is on track to break the December 2012 record this month. This ETF has rallied 9.4% in the third quarter, although August is mostly trading sideways. The iShares MSCI China ETF (MCHI) gained 8%. Fund flows tend to lag stock market performance by a few weeks
    http://blogs.barrons.com/asiastocks/2014/08/29/investors-love-china-shun-japan/
    Update 08/31/2014 (this article does correctly name Mr Modi as India's Prime Minister)
    Japan Aims to Double India Investment in 5 Years: Report
    "India, Asia's third-largest economy after China and Japan, needs faster economic growth to create work for the one million young people who enter the workforce every month.
    In early steps, PM Modi has allowed foreign investors to own 100 per cent of railway projects with an eye to drumming up interest in building India's answer to Japan's high-speed 'bullet' trains. He is also courting Japanese investment in an ambitious industrial "corridor" to run between Delhi and Mumbai.
    Japan's Honda Motor Co Ltd, Suzuki Co Ltd, Sony Corp and Toyota Motor Corp are household names in India. Yet, India accounts for only 1.2 per cent of Japan's total outward foreign direct investment."
    http://profit.ndtv.com/news/economy/article-japan-aims-to-double-india-investment-in-5-years-report-657101
  • Ouch Funds 2014
    @rjb112: i don't necessarily follow mega caps.......the argument is that.......and, technically, large caps usually lead when the rally is mature -- like it is now.
    @fundalarm: I haven't personally seen the original research on megacaps, but as you mention, supposedly they lead in the back half of bull markets. They also supposedly lead in bear markets.
    Have you seen any decent research on megacaps that I can read?
    They apparently have not been in favor since the mid/late 1990's, when there were some years in the 1995-2000 time frame where you could have just invested in the largest [by market cap] 25-50 stocks and captured the market leadership.
    Seems to me that buying the largest, safest companies at a discount is not a bad idea.
    XLG, IOO, and as @expat points out, BRLIX, seems to be a good way to invest in megacaps.
    You mention "WE are overweight xyz in such and such accounts".....if this is personal, please don't answer, but are you working for a company that professionally manages investment accounts? Do you feel comfortable saying the name of the company, and what your job is with them?
  • Emerging Markets, BRICs Breaking Out Of Sideways Range
    FYI: merging markets continue to charge higher in 2014 after years of trending downward. Below are long-term charts of the emerging markets ETF (EEM) and the BRIC ETF (EEB) going back to 2009. As shown, the last six months (boxed in charts) have been a boon for EM as a whole and the BRIC countries. And just recently, both the EEB and EEM have broken above the top of their two-year sideways trading ranges. This range-breakout is a bullish sign for the asset class longer-term.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2014/8/29/emerging-markets-brics-breaking-out-of-sideways-range.html?printerFriendly=true
  • Is FHAIX a good alternative?
    What does anyone think about the feasibility of Franklin High Income (FHAIX) as a place to put some money currently in other domestic bond funds? I have money in some funds that I expect to get clobbered in the next few years, and would like a reasonable alternative. I’m retired-but-working.
    Thank you all,
    Archaic
  • Ouch Funds 2014
    incidentally, just got this from citi (to advocate for larger caps at this stage):
    As the impact of US QE wanes, asset markets are set to enter the third of this four phase cycle. From here, credit spreads usually turn up but equities rally on further increases in EPS*. Notably, while in the 1980s and 1990s this phase lasted another 1-3 years, in 2007-08 it only lasted 4 months. History suggests that investors should favour equities over corporate bonds. Within the global equity markets, it is associated with bubbles and outperformance from growth, large-cap and cyclical stocks. This profitable but increasingly unstable period ends when global EPS turns down, which we do not expect in the next two years – Phase 4 is not imminent
    *EPS here is earnings per share
    separately, apologies to the OP for diverting this thread. there are, in my opinion, way too many threads on MFO to start a new one, so i thought it made sense to continue if in a bit revised direction: what has not worked YTD and what asset classes are worth adding to going forward. regards.
  • Long-Term, Tech Funds Lag Energy And Real Estate
    FYI: Tech stocks are often at the forefront of the stock market's advances, but as a broad group their returns in the past 15 years pale against the energy and real estate sectors.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://license.icopyright.net/user/viewFreeUse.act?fuid=MTg0MTYyOTY=
    Enlarged Graphic; http://news.investors.com/photopopup.aspx?path=WEBMUTpent082814.gif&docId=715103&xmpSource=&width=1000&height=1197&caption=&id=715108
  • Shiller Wonders Why the Stock Market is So Expensive
    A nice sharp comment from the current Malkiel WSJ piece, which is weak, by a James Lear:
    \\\ The CAPE analysis by Dr. Schiller is an example of sophisticated mathematics done badly. Two reasons:
    1) the "cyclically adjusted" portion of his index is a 10-year moving average on *earnings* (the denominator of CAPE) but not on the price. The SMA is a common tool in electrical engineering signal processing. It removes high frequency noise but it also delays the signal by 1/2 the period of the moving average. In this case, the delay is 5-years. It turns out that it is the delay that makes CAPE seem work as a predictor, not the filtering. In other words, we can use today's price divided by earnings from five years ago, and voila we have something very similar to CAPE. The beauty of using the delayed 5-year earnings as opposed to the SMA is we can roll forward (e.g. look at 4-year earnings) and look ahead at what Schiller's CAPE will be in the future at today's prices.
    2) The CAPE correlation coefficients are low.
  • I should probably just sit still...
    Hi crash. I don't want to come off as obnoxious or irritating with personal questions, but the comment about 'a work in progress'; this doesn't need to be a work in progress IMHO (opps, used that terrible term). You have well over 50% in one area of the world, Asia. Should Asia be weighted above average in a portfolio? That is debatable. So why would you wait years to get the balance to a more appropriate mix for a 60 year old? I guess I just don't get it. By the way, I'm 60 also and this portfolio would keep me up at night.
    If you were to move your portfolio to a brokerage, say Schwab, they will give advice and answer questions for you for free. You don't have to except the advice but they would be able to lay out different risk scenarios for you. If you have a brick-and-mortar brokerage in your area where you can sit face to face with someone that's even better. I just think you could assemble a much better risk-reward portfolio now, not waiting for new contributions to get it there. That would probably take many years. Waiting could be hazardous to your wealth.