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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Death-Crosses
    stillers
    @linter, thanks for your research and post, providing conclusive evidence of what most of us already knew, Teched1000 is a fraud.
    His reply, with two links to nowhere (sic) and his rambling psycho-babble post about general investment BS and references back to 2020 and 2022 (Say what?) are testament to it. You don't have to have 35+ years of audit experience to know that 500+ word responses about everything but the simple question that was posed/issue that was raised indicate, well, in technical accounting terms, bullshit.
    First, the 500+ words were my opinion about the markets. If you don't like it move on.
    Second, you just crossed the line by saying "fraud, sic, psycho-babble, general investment BS" and should be banned from this site.
    Third,I urged people to look at the links that were provided and see the truth.
    But wait, stillers, the seeker of truth posted under 4 different names on different sites.
    Karen/ Stillers / Arriba / Albie. Any respectable person uses the same one.
    The last name was Karen. He claimed that he was married to a financial advisor and then continued to post dozens of opinions that supposedly came from his husband while they were his own.
    When I revealed it and posted about it, he disappeared.
    image
    FD1000 in Other Investing
  • Liberation Day! What’s the play?
    Everyone’s financial situation is different. We are near retirement and thus we stay conservative in our allocation. 65-70% are in bonds and cash while the remaining 30-35% in stocks. Don’t think this drawdown has playout completely and there are more downside in coming months. We will stay patient and collect generous dividends from bonds and cash. Will buy more T bills this weekend as others mature next week.
    Sven in Fund Discussions
  • Among the biggest losers so far are tech stocks, particularly Apple
    The following is from a current report in The Guardian:
    Among the biggest losers so far in the massive Wall Street sell-offs are tech stocks, particularly Apple, which relies heavily on China in its supply chain.
    Apple is nearly 6% down today, after falling 9% on Thursday – what amounted to over $300bn of its market value, according to the Financial Times. It was the company’s worst day since March 2020, at the beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic. The White House went out of its way to confirm that there aren’t any exceptions made for Apple in Trump’s plan.
    Projections made by Rosenblatt Securities suggest that the tariffs of China, of which there will be a total of 54% after Trump’s new reciprocal tariffs against the country, could increase the cost of the cheapest iPhone 16 model by 43% – from $799 now to $1,142, depending on how much of the tariff Apple chooses to push onto customers.
    The tariffs came despite moves from Apple CEO Tim Cook to try to cozy up to Trump. Cook congratulated Trump on his win in November and was in attendance at Trump inauguration. In February, Apple announced that it would invest over $500bn in US jobs over the next five years, what was largely seen as a play to get Trump to hold back on tariffs.
    Old_Joe Old_Joe in Other Investing
  • Trump Is Putting Tariffs On Penguins
    "Yuge." I recall an SNL episode with both Bernie Sanders and Larry David. Just for (further) laughs, L. David prompted Bernie to REPEAT his version of pronouncing "Yuge." I needed a giggle amid the financial carnage today. How much further will it take me?
    Real people are literally suffering and dying in violence and unspeakable junk around the world. Orange is dutifully doing his part to exacerbate it all. Doesn't feel like my own country anymore. Sigh.
    Crash Crash in Other Investing
  • In Europe, You Can Be Sued for Not Taking Action on Climate Change. In the U.S., It’s the Opposite.
    "Of course anyone paying the least bit of attention to the multiple climate disasters of recent years would know this."
    @AndyJ- I know you didn't mean it this way, but some might interpret that as saying that Trump and his financial dwarves have absolutely no clue about the CLIMATE CHANGE HOAX. I don't think that we're supposed to say things like that any more because it might hurt FD1000's feelings.
    Old_Joe Old_Joe in Other Investing
  • In Europe, You Can Be Sued for Not Taking Action on Climate Change. In the U.S., It’s the Opposite.
    Meanwhile, Günther Thallinger, a Board member and former CEO of Allianz SE, one of the world's largest insurance companies, says the climate crisis is on track to wipe out huge chunks of economic value.
    Snips:
    The world is fast approaching temperature levels where insurers will no longer be able to offer cover for many climate risks ... (and) without insurance, which is already being pulled in some places, many other financial services become unviable, from mortgages to investments.
    “This applies not only to housing, but to infrastructure, transportation, agriculture, and industry,” he said. “The economic value of entire regions – coastal, arid, wildfire-prone – will begin to vanish from financial ledgers. Markets will reprice, rapidly and brutally. This is what a climate-driven market failure looks like.”
    No governments will realistically be able to cover the damage when multiple high-cost events happen in rapid succession ...
    Of course anyone paying the least bit of attention to the multiple climate disasters of recent years would know this.
    Yes, the issue absolutely affects economy and investment.
    AndyJ in Other Investing
  • However, the US has a Trade Surplus in the Services Sector
    FYI, here is an interesting excerpt from an article about Trump’s tariffs in yesterday’s The NYT:
    "President Trump says he is outraged by the fact that the United States imports more goods than it sends to the rest of the world. What he rarely mentions, though, is that when it comes to services, the tables are turned.
    Service sectors — which include the finance, travel, engineering and medical industries and more — make up the bulk of the American economy. Exports of these services brought more than $1 trillion into the United States last year.
    But that dominance also gives other countries some clout in negotiations — including the ability to impose some pain on the U.S. economy as they look to retaliate against Mr. Trump’s tariffs on goods.
    The European Union, for instance, could use tools designed to restrict services coming into the bloc as a cudgel.
    The United States is the largest exporter of services in the world, and a large share of those services, from financial services to cloud computing, are delivered digitally. The country ran a trade surplus in services of nearly $300 billion last year.
    Every time a European tourist stays at a U.S. hotel, for example, the money spent is counted in the services export basket. And every time someone in Canada or Japan or Mexico pays to listen to music or watch movies and television shows made in the United States, they are adding to America’s surplus in the services trade.
    Many of the countries that the United States is targeting for tariffs run a services deficit with the United States, including Canada, China, Japan, Mexico and much of Europe, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.
    “The E.U. is now equipped with policy tools to extend the range of retaliation against U.S. tariffs to target imports of U.S. services,” Filippo Taddei, a managing director of global investment research at Goldman Sachs, wrote in a research note about possible European responses.
    Such measures could include tariffs, restrictions on trade in services and limits on trade-related aspects of intellectual property rights. That could affect American tech giants like Google. Several European diplomats said that use of the tool is a distinct possibility, should the trade war escalate."
    fred495 in Other Investing
  • Global markets in turmoil as Trump tariffs wipe £1.5tn off Wall Street
    Following are excerpts from a current report in The Guardian:
    Economists say levies of 10-50% have dramatically added to the risk of a worldwide downturn
    Global financial markets have been plunged into turmoil as Donald Trump’s escalating trade war knocked trillions of dollars off the value of the world’s biggest companies and heightened fears of a US recession. As world leaders reacted to the US president’s “liberation day” tariff policies demolishing the international trading order, about $2tn (£1.5tn) was wiped off Wall Street and share prices in other financial centres across the globe.
    Experts said Trump’s sweeping border taxes of between 10% and 50% on the US’s traditional allies and enemies alike had dramatically added to the risk of a steep global downturn and a recession in the world’s biggest economy. The sell-off swept the globe, sending exchanges plunging in Asia and Europe.
    When New York trading opened, the S&P 500 index of the US’s leading companies fell by as much as 4.3% in morning trading, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq fund down 5.1%. Meanwhile, the US dollar hit a six-month low, falling by about 2.2% on Thursday morning, amid a growing loss of confidence in a currency that had previously been considered the safest in the world for most of the past century.
    Warning clients to beware a “dollar confidence crisis”, George Saravelos, the head of foreign exchange research at Deutsche Bank, said: “The safe-haven properties of the dollar are being eroded.” The heaviest falls in share prices on Thursday were reserved for US firms with complex international supply chains stretching into the countries that Trump is targeting with billions of dollars in fresh border taxes.
    Apple, which makes most of its iPhones, tablets and other devices for the US market in China, plunged by as much as 9.5%, along with steep declines for other large multinationals including Microsoft, Nvidia, Dell and HP. Commodities fell sharply, including a 7% plunge in oil prices, reflecting growing concerns over the global economic outlook.
    In a typically defiant response on Thursday, Trump used his Truth Social platform to declare that the his plan was working. “THE OPERATION IS OVER! THE PATIENT LIVED, AND IS HEALING. THE PROGNOSIS IS THAT THE PATIENT WILL BE FAR STRONGER, BIGGER, BETTER, AND MORE RESILIENT THAN EVER BEFORE. MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!!!”
    Tariffs will fall heavily on some of the world’s poorest countries, with nations in south-east Asia, including Myanmar, among the most affected. Cambodia, where about one in five of the population lives below the poverty line, was the worst-hit country in the region with a tariff rate of 49%. Vietnam faces 46% tariffs and Myanmar, reeling from a devastating earthquake and years of civil war after a 2021 military coup, was hit with 44%.
    Analysts warned that garment and sports shoe makers, which rely heavily on production in south-east Asia, face rising costs, which will push up prices for consumers around the globe. The share prices of Nike, Adidas and Puma all fell steeply. Analysts said Trump’s measures would raise the average tariff, or border tax, charged by the US to the highest level since 1933, in a development that threatened to sink the US into recession while increasing living costs for consumers.
    The non-partisan Tax Foundation thinktank said it estimated the plan would represent a “$1.8tn tax hike” for US consumers, which would cause imports to fall by more than a quarter, or $900bn, in 2025. While the measures will hit the US hard, researchers at the consultancy Oxford Economics said they could sink global economic growth to the lowest annual rate since the 2008 financial crisis, barring the height of the Covid pandemic.
    The French president, Emmanuel Macron, said Trump’s decision to impose tariffs of 20% on EU goods was “brutal and unfounded”, while Germany’s outgoing chancellor, Olaf Scholz, called it “fundamentally wrong”. Spain’s prime minister, Pedro Sánchez, said the “protectionist” tariffs ran “contrary to the interests of millions of citizens on this side of the Atlantic and in the US”.
    The EU is thought to be preparing retaliatory tariffs on US consumer and industrial goods – likely to include emblematic products such as orange juice, blue jeans and Harley-Davidson motorbikes – to be announced in mid-April, in response to steel and aluminium tariffs previously announced by Trump.
    Old_Joe Old_Joe in Other Investing
  • Civility (More of an “announcement” than a discussion thread)
    For the record, I make an honest attempt to separate those of my posts which have a high political content from those which have a legitimate financial interest, and post them into the appropriate sections.
    However, if I'm understanding correctly, it's been suggested that posts which have the potential to attract political or uncivil responses should not be posted in the "Other Investing" section.
    I firmly reject the suggestion that I should censor the placement of my posts based upon the possible comments of some other poster. The responsibility for unduly political or uncivil responses is squarely upon the shoulders of such posters, and I will not pre-censor my posts in deference to such conduct.
    Old_Joe Old_Joe in Other Investing
  • Liberation Day! What’s the play?
    I guess that's what makes markets and debates.
    FWIW, some believe we are already in or about to enter a period of stagflation with recession probabilities clearly spiking.
    Components of stagflation and my 2 pennies:
    Slow growth - Financial firms have already cut their YE S&P projections based on slower growth.
    High unemployment - Coming back very soon to a country near us?
    Rising prices - A lot of wood was chopped on this one, but under the tariff czar,
    "It's all over now, baby blue?"
    https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/stagflation-radar-us-economy-no-repeat-70s-2025-03-25/
    BTW, you kind of lost me with, "I have to take the administration’s word on it."
    No capisce.
    No need to debate it any further. We will not know the effects of the tariffs for quite some time yet and will not know what conditions we actually experienced until we look back.
    stillers stillers in Fund Discussions
  • Tariffs
    The following comments regarding Trump's tariffs were excerpted from an AP article published on Oct. 27, 2020.
    Although the situation is different this time, historical information is useful in providing some context.
    Please limit comments to how tariffs may impact the economy or investing.
    This thread is not intended for political diatribes - please use Off Topic for that.
    "Trump set his sights on shrinking America’s vast trade deficits, portraying them as evidence
    of economic weakness, misbegotten deals and abusive practices committed by other countries.
    He pledged to boost exports and to curb imports by imposing tariffs — import taxes — on many foreign goods."
    "America’s deficit in goods and services now exceeds what it was under President Barack Obama.
    Steel and aluminum makers have cut jobs despite Trump’s protectionist policies on their behalf.
    His deals made scarcely a ripple in a $20 trillion economy.
    For most Americans, Trump’s drastic trade policy ultimately meant little, good or bad, for their financial health."
    "Yet the belligerent approach has made scant difference in the number he cares about most:
    The overall trade deficit in goods and services.
    It barely dipped last year — by 0.5% to $577 billion, still higher than in any year of the Obama administration.
    This year, the gap has widened nearly 6%, with the coronavirus pandemic having crushed tourism, education
    and other service 'exports.'”
    "Contrary to his assertions, too, Trump’s tariffs have been paid by American importers, not foreign countries.
    And their cost is typically passed on to consumers in the form of higher prices.
    Researchers from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and Princeton and Columbia universities
    have estimated that the president’s tariffs cost $831 per U.S. household annually."
    “His administration’s approach has delivered few tangible benefits to the U.S. economy while undercutting
    the multilateral trading system, disrupting long-standing alliances with U.S. trading partners
    and fomenting uncertainty, said Eswar Prasad, a Cornell University economist who formerly
    led the International Monetary Fund’s China division."
    https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-virus-outbreak-global-trade-trade-policy-mexico-39aadae9a6d18de2b91889f1e552b605
    Observant1 in Other Investing
  • How Tariffs Could Shock America’s Power System
    I no longer own GRID in the IRA. But I do keep an eye out for opportunities to add to it in the taxable.
    At the risk of bringing up another great financial issue that shouldn't be discussed on an investing forum, I think it's worth noting that the WSJ assumes that residential customers will/(should?) pay the rate increases required to develop power for all these new data centers. If the government was taking that money from us to subsidize data centers would we call it a tax?
    WABAC WABAC in Other Investing
  • Affordable compact cars could be first to see rising prices from tariffs
    I think it's great that people think that launching the largest trade war since the Smoot-Hawley tariff will have no significant impact on world equity and bond markets, much less the bank accounts of John and Jane Doe.
    It's just not polite to talk about it.

    And that’s the purpose of
    Mutual Fund Observer? To debate the great financial issues of the world? Go at it then.
    We can't discuss the impact of "great financial issues" on our investments? Why do people buy and sell what they buy and sell? I don't know. Can't talk about it.
    I think I've seen one post here defending tariffs. If they're a good idea, then maybe they would have a beneficial effect on our retirement plans. Or maybe someone would have an idea of how to invest to take advantage of threatened tariffs.
    But no. The people that object to the discussion, such as yourself, suggest they shouldn't be talked about at all in the context of investing. It's only politics. And nihilism is in bloom this spring. Let's talk about the price of scotch instead.
    image
    WABAC WABAC in Other Investing
  • Affordable compact cars could be first to see rising prices from tariffs
    "And that’s the purpose of Mutual Fund Observer? To debate the great financial issues of the world?"
    How about to consider and understand the every-day financial issues of the United States of America, and we, the citizens thereof?
    Old_Joe Old_Joe in Other Investing
  • Affordable compact cars could be first to see rising prices from tariffs
    I think it's great that people think that launching the largest trade war since the Smoot-Hawley tariff will have no significant impact on world equity and bond markets, much less the bank accounts of John and Jane Doe.
    It's just not polite to talk about it.

    And that’s the purpose of Mutual Fund Observer? To debate the great financial issues of the world? Go at it then.
    hank in Other Investing
  • Affordable compact cars could be first to see rising prices from tariffs
    FD1000 said: "This is a political thread that should be posted in the OFF threads."
    “Another wipeout walloped Wall Street Friday,” Stan Choe of the Associated Press wrote today. The S&P 500 had one of its worst days in two years, dropping 2%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 715 points, losing 1.7% of its value. The Nasdaq Composite fell 2.7%. On Tuesday, news dropped that the administration’s blanket firings and wildly shifting tariff policies have dropped consumer confidence to a low it has not hit since January 2021. Today’s stock market tumble started after the Commerce Department released data showing that consumer prices are rising faster than economists expected.
    AIG chief international economist James Knightley said: “We are moving in the wrong direction and the concern is that tariffs threaten higher prices, which means the inflation prints are going to remain hot.” Business leaders like lower interest rates, which reduce borrowing costs and make it cheaper to finance business initiatives, but with rising inflation, the Federal Reserve will be less likely to cut interest rates.
    @FD1000- Right you are! All of this is political and will have absolutely no impact on the financial arena.
    (Note: Above information quoted from Heather Cox Richardson, 3/28/25.)
    Old_Joe Old_Joe in Other Investing
  • Donald Trump announces new 25% tariffs on all imported cars and car parts
    FD1000 said: "First, this thread is political and should be in OFF forum."
    “Another wipeout walloped Wall Street Friday,” Stan Choe of the Associated Press wrote today. The S&P 500 had one of its worst days in two years, dropping 2%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 715 points, losing 1.7% of its value. The Nasdaq Composite fell 2.7%. On Tuesday, news dropped that the administration’s blanket firings and wildly shifting tariff policies have dropped consumer confidence to a low it has not hit since January 2021. Today’s stock market tumble started after the Commerce Department released data showing that consumer prices are rising faster than economists expected.
    AIG chief international economist James Knightley said: “We are moving in the wrong direction and the concern is that tariffs threaten higher prices, which means the inflation prints are going to remain hot.” Business leaders like lower interest rates, which reduce borrowing costs and make it cheaper to finance business initiatives, but with rising inflation, the Federal Reserve will be less likely to cut interest rates.
    @FD1000- Right you are! All of this is political and will have absolutely no impact on the financial arena.
    (Note: Above information quoted from Heather Cox Richardson, 3/28/25.)
    Old_Joe Old_Joe in Other Investing
  • Donald Trump announces new 25% tariffs on all imported cars and car parts
    @FDSo, just ignore the coup day by day. 1000- Hey there - you think that any of this might impact your financial situation?
    Edited for civility. OJ, good sir, please don't let your annoyance take over.

    First, this thread is political and should be in OFF forum.
    Second, I didn't sell, and I'm doing well, as I have done for years. My portfolio was at its peak at the close last Friday 3/28/2025. If you know my style and goals, you know what I do. I hope your portfolio is doing great, BTW.
    The best thing, as usual, is to do nothing and stop reading the scary stories. You should design your portfolio based on your goals with limited trades.
    If you are a good trader, watch markets in real time and make adjustments.
    So, just ignore the coup. Nothing to see here. Business as usual... If a coup doesn't vitally impact investing decisions, then nothing does.
    Crash Crash in Other Investing
  • Donald Trump announces new 25% tariffs on all imported cars and car parts
    @FD1000- Hey there - you think that any of this might impact your financial situation?
    Edited for civility. OJ, good sir, please don't let your annoyance take over.
    First, this thread is political and should be in OFF forum.
    Second, I didn't sell, and I'm doing well, as I have done for years. My portfolio was at its peak at the close last Friday 3/28/2025. If you know my style and goals, you know what I do. I hope your portfolio is doing great, BTW.
    The best thing, as usual, is to do nothing and stop reading the scary stories. You should design your portfolio based on your goals with limited trades.
    If you are a good trader, watch markets in real time and make adjustments.
    FD1000 in Other Investing
  • Is US Stock Market Outperformance Sustainable?
    "The US stock market is by far the best one long term."
    I believe US stocks will perform well in the long-term
    and most stock investors should have a healthy allocation to the US.
    This does not necessarily mean the equity portion of their portfolios should be 100% US equities.
    For example, wouldn't it have been beneficial for retirees (presumably withdrawing from portfolios)
    to have foreign stocks in addition to an S&P 500 fund during the "Lost Decade"?
    "So, it boils down to timing and trading."
    No, it really doesn't.
    Numerous studies have indicated excessive trading often leads to lower returns.
    It boils down to creating a sensible investment plan with an asset allocation
    suitable to an investor's risk tolerance/risk capacity,
    and then sticking to the plan (making adjustments as needed based on life changes).
    Some investors may find it helpful to work with a financial advisor to develop this plan.
    Can you find where I said 100% in US stocks?
    Any time you switch funds, it is timing, and, as you noted, most are doing it wrong. If you hold static, your portfolio will suffer for many years. (During 2000-10, for 10 years: SPY lost about 9% and QQQ lost over 40%...During 2010-2024 the SPY+QQQ were great.)
    The solution is good analysis, knowing funds/ETFs very well, and limited/smart timing. A good example is Charles Lynn Bolin's articles.
    A sensible investment plan sounds great; the devil is in the details.
    Same with financial advisor, in theory, it's a good idea. In real life, not so much.
    Problem 1: Catch 22: If your investment knowledge is below average, you will not know if your FA (financial adviser) is good. If your investment knowledge is above average, you will not need one.
    Problem 2: A FA is jack of all trades and a master of none. Anytime you need a real complicated advice, he/she can't answer it. Anything that relates to taxes, you need to see a CPA, anything that relates to trusts, you must see an attorney.
    Problem 3: A FA can't promise you any future performance or even risk-adjusted performance.
    Problem 4: The highest commission vehicles for a FA are annuities or a guarantee of something. These are usually bad for the clients.
    You probably heard a typical FA claim that they are fiduciaries. It is correct that fiduciary is better than not, but it doesn't guarantee much.
    In theory, a FA puts their client interests first. In reality, it doesn't work that well.
    This is how it should work for a typical person in typical situations. You seek a FA advice, a good FA should collect all your information, analyze it, and come up with exactly what to do in about 2-3 hours. They should charge you maybe $1000-1500. You can implement the plan for years to come, unless you have a major change. This means, you don't need the FA for years to come. In the event you have a major change and need advice, one hour of consultation should be enough; maybe another $300 fee.
    Remember, any time your FA wants you to stay with them for years and collect his/her fee as a % of your portfolio, it is a bad choice. You should only pay them by the hour. You can find good fee only FA at www.garrettplanningnetwork.com/
    If a FA followed the above, they would starve. This is why it would be very difficult to find a great, reliable, honest, low-fee FA that puts their client's interests first.
    The best idea is to learn and get better. You spent at least 12 years in school; why can you not spend just 100 hours learning the basics?
    Most people need to handle and manage their money for decades, why not educate yourself? It's not a brain surgery.
    FD1000 in Other Investing