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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Current CDs are Compelling
    Stillers: "I find nothing compelling about a 1-yr CP CD rate of 5.45% when VMRXX is paying 5.29%. On a $100K investment, the difference over the 12-months is ($5,450-$5,290 or) $160 IF the MMkt rate holds steady for the full period. That piddly difference is not a compelling difference that would cause me (at least, and I trust manty others) to lock up $100K for a year, regardless of our age................ I trust many others) notion that we won't be seeing anything near 4.70% rates in 2029 when the 5-yr CD matures."
    I do not believe that MMkt rates will hold steady for the next 12 month period, and most investors can't get a MMkt paying 5.29%. Many investors prefer a more secure government MMkt fund that pays under 5%. For the past 2 months, my MMkt rates have been dropping, and I expect them to continue to drop over the next 12 months. As far what CD rates will be at the end of the next 5 year period, that is just too speculative for me to guess. When MMkt rates went to zero in 2007/2008, I doubt anyone expected them to stay at zero for the next 15 years.
  • Vanguard Website
    I gave Vanguard a chance too, but they said they would ignore all of our existing low cost basis stocks so I though that was a no go.
    Years ago I suggested to a friend what became Vanguard Personal Advisor Select. (At the time there was only one tier, with a $50K min.)
    Vanguard was good about preserving investments with large gains and only selling them off gradually over several years. It was a pleasant contrast to TIAA, where this person had watched as an "advisor" immediately sold off everything at the start.
    TIAA compounded the problem later by harvesting a loss in a taxable account while purchasing the same security in an IRA - thus generating a wash sale and permanently destroying the ability to declare the harvested loss.
    On the tax front, Vanguard seems to be doing okay. Someone else I know with them was told that an account had recently crossed the designated allocation ranges and Vanguard could rebalance. Given that this was in a taxable account and rebalancing would recognize gains, Vanguard provided the option of rebalancing or not.
    Maybe you just got hold of an inexperienced person at Vanguard or someone who was having a bad day.
  • Vanguard Website
    @sven
    Fido was wife's 401k custodian so most of her retirement money is there.
    Our joint taxable account we started in 1988 at Schwab when we had an advisor for mutual funds. He used Littman-Gregory " No Load Fund Analyst" ( anybody else remember them?) so I finally decided I could do it myself with the newsletter. Then they stopped the newsletter and I didn't think it was worth a 0.7% fee on top of MF fees. Fortunately Fund Alarm was available.
    While the advisors at Schwab changed frequently in the past, they have been stable the last 10 years. I can email the guy we have and he responds quickly.
    I don't use them for investment advice but they are helpful with paperwork etc. I did explore their financial planning but decided I could do just as well with investments for now.
    We never really connected to someone at Fido. I gave them a chance last year to demonstrate their ideas about financial planning and they kinda blew it. The rep didn't seem interested in following up and all they offered was Fido mutual funds.
    I gave Vanguard a chance too, but they said they would ignore all of our existing low cost basis stocks so I though that was a no go.
    I am sorta in the "paranoid" level of account security ( like Andy Grove) and I think having about a 50/50 split in brokerages is not a bad idea.
    If they have good analytics, I have missed them, so I use M* and Quicken and a lot of the stuff people use here.
  • Rising Auto & Home Insurance Costs
    The "usual suspects" in insurance do seem to require you to have an auto policy with them before they will sell you an umbrella policy. Try working with an independent agent. They are familiar with a variety of lesser known but still solid companies.
    I used our building's insurance agent to find a better homeowner's policy. They also priced out an umbrella policy (coupled with the homeowner's policy). They got a good price for each, and I've been using them for about 3 years. They couldn't beat the price I was getting on auto, so I stayed where I was for that policy.
    Since my agent's company handles east coast policies, I can't recommend them to you. I'm sure you can find good agents where you are.
  • Rising Auto & Home Insurance Costs
    Just an FYI FWIW -
    For a number of years now, my home and auto insurance are with separate companies. I could not get them to be cheaper with the same company and with multi-policy discount. In any case, at renewal time of my home owners' I tried to get an umbrella from the home owners' company and I was told that car insurance and not home insurance is used as a base for writing umbrella because car is the biggest source of additional (unanticipated) liability, and as such I should ask the car insurance company to underwrite the umbrella or I can just buy a separate umbrella policy without any connection to the car or home insurance. I have not independently verified the accuracy of the above.
    I just ended up increasing the liability in the home insurance to the max allowed in there.
  • Vanguard Website
    Thanks to all for the information, both here and via PM. Years ago, Fidelity used to offer various tiered bonuses. Here, e.g. is its 2018 promotion:
    https://www.fidelity.com/bin-public/060_www_fidelity_com/documents/fidelity/Cash-Offer.pdf
    Since then, Fidelity limited its public promotions to $1M+ transfers, and subsequently hid promotions altogether. So Fidelity fell off my radar and I hadn't considered them. I'm now encouraged to check directly with them to see what they might do.
    Similarly, I've received enough of a nudge regarding Schwab's willingness to deal that I'll check with them as well. It's a solid firm, one I've used off and on for many years.
    Going either way I'm still left with the question of what to do with bank cash and Treasury cash. (I still keep a modest amount of cash in a bank just in case of another liquidity freeze; the latter is to keep state income taxes down.)
    I could use an internet bank for FDIC-covered cash (many still paying 5%+), and something like SGOV or USFR for liquid Treasury cash.
    Finally, regarding the transfer process, I did read The Finance Buff's piece when it came out. It's a good guide in general for doing transfers even though it contains some Vanguard-specific info. Having moved assets back and forth over the years, I am familiar with the process. In fact, it's Vanguard's adding a new fee to do this that is motivating me to look around.
    Again, thanks.
  • Reality check
    Agree.
    How many tech stocks survived the dot-com bubble ?
    Can the investors stay put during 80% drawdown?
    There is something to be said about having a balanced asset allocation for most years. 2022 was an exception.
  • Stashing cash, Summer 2024
    @AndyJ : It's been a few years, but I can remember being dam happy to get three %. That was for 2 year CD. I started reaching out a few months early , but such is the life of an investor. Interesting times await us ! Rolling some early, rolling some late
    Jobs and average hourly pay were both up above expectations, so this morning the whole suite of T yields are up, mainly in 2y and longer. 3y does look better.
  • Vanguard Website
    Our recent transfer out of Vangurad to Fido went smoothly in LT a week.
    We had an Admiral fund VTMFX transferred to Schwab. I asked our rep, who we have known for years and agreed to wave the purchase fee. We have a pretty big account so that may be one reason why.
    Doesn’t hurt to ask. The rep is Schwab’s big advantage. Lack of sweep MMF big big disadvantage
  • Vanguard Website
    It was not an easy decision for us on Vanguard after being investors for over 30 years. The company has changed…
    As I mentioned on this board, we initiated to move all tax-deferred accounts out to Fidelity. The transfer was completed with 5 days through ACAT, and the cost base information arrived several days later. As of yesterday, we transfer half of our joint account to Fidelity. We decide to keep the other half at Vanguard for the same reasons @msf mentioned above.
    I can confirm that Fidelity offers $1,000 per $1M asset transfer to Fidelity after 60 days. They assigned an agent directly to oversee the transfer. The process is straightforward but it is nice touch to have a history with a specific person. And that is something Vanguard lacks. Additionally, we were contact from Fidelity’s financial consultant immediately to offer their service. I hesitated until we are ready to engage with them.
    By the way, we have Vanguard managed part of our asset through their Advisory Select service (minimum $500k) as part of an experiment in case I pass away before my wife. We ended that relationships immediately when we decided to move on from Vanguard.
  • Fido first impressions (vs Schwab)
    For me.
    1. MM is a small problem. I sell a fund and buy a MM and Schwab pays more.
    2. Schwab pays the monthly distribution on the same day while Fidelity is late by 1-2 days.
    3. Schwab online is more intuitive.
    4. Here come the biggest advantage for Schwab. I trade only mutual funds and preferably Inst shares. Schwab waves the $49.95 fee while at Fidelity I hardly ever got that. 4 switches annually for 5 accounts is a $1000.
    5. This is the most annoying at Fidelity. My trade goes like this. I sell all the shares and buy the new position on the same day and most of the money is in IRA. I trade bond fund.
    Suppose I sold PIMIX worth 1 million. Fidelity would not allow you to buy another fund online, you must call a rep. They would only allow you to buy 90%=$900K, even if you sold a bond fund. Sometimes I have to argue with rookie reps who say you can't do it.
    The above means that in 20 trades if I miss just 0.1% or more equals to another $1-3K annually.
    At Schwab I sell one fund at 1 Mill and buy another at $995 online, no rep or wasting time is needed because these funds hardly move.
    5. Schwab is a real bank, Fidelity isn't.
    6. Schwab will match any cash rewards on bringing in money, even on smaller amounts Fidelity doesn't, all you do ask your branch rep.
    7. I get constant calls from Fidelity reps to "help" me which I don
    need, I never got a call from Schwab.
    8. Schwab has more new funds I like. I also brought 2 funds I like into Schwab by calling in, could never do it at Fidelity.
    9. I have a Fidelity account over 25 years and Schwab over 20 years.
    10. In the last several years Schwab rep knowledge went down a bit, Fidelity much more.
  • Reality check
    Stock picking is not easy over time and I certainly don’t have the time and skills to do that consistently, Thus we use mutual funds (both index and active) and they provide good enough return for us. In recent years, we include active ETFs that open up more possibilities in our asset allocation. Not trying to overly greedy, we stride to keep up with S&P500 index while reducing the downside risk as our goal. So far so good.
    We got lucky (not skills) with few stock picks:
    Bought lot of Apple when Steve Job introduced iPhone back in the 90’s and the stock has done well.
    Started buying BRKB after reading Warren Buffet’s books. When Charlie Munger joined Buffet, we continue to add on every dips. Through Buffet we learn to be humble in order to be a good investor.
    With the lately AI craze, we stay within our competency and pick a semiconductor ETF, SMH, instead NVIDA. Even though SMH has 25% NVDA, the rest are “picks and shovels” companies similar to those of the gold mining days. So far the thesis holds up.
    Over the years, we have too many loser stocks to list here. Thus, we hire good active managers to run the funds for us. There is something to be said about diversification with just a S&P500 index fund or ETF.
  • Reality check
    Twice I’ve asked absolute strangers met while traveling for investment tips. More of a conversation piece than serious talk. The first was while relaxing at a beach in the Florida Keys sometime in the early 2,000s. The fella recommended gold. Had been in a bear market. But had a great run later that year. Miners were up 30+% for the year. The second came from a young fella riding a hotel shuttle bus to the airport in Charlotte NC 3 years ago. He recommended 1 stock - NVIDA. Being of the “brilliant” variety, I completely ignored both suggestions. :) Have to wonder how much NVIDA is up since May ‘21?
    Don't feel too bad.
    A coworker asked me for a stock tip in 1995 or 1996.
    I disclosed that I only invested in mutual funds and was not a stock expert.
    I suggested he consider Microsoft which recently released Windows 95.
    IIRC, he invested ~$10k initially in MSFT and another ~$10k a few weeks later.
    My coworker left the company a short time later and he didn't even buy me lunch for the stock tip! :-(
    MSFT got hammered in the Dot Com bubble and it also performed poorly under Steve Balmer.
    Still, if someone invested $10k in MSFT on 01/02/1996 and held through yesterday
    (experiencing a max drawdown of ~70% along the way), Microsoft stock would be worth over $1.2mm.
    Did I purchase MSFT - of course not!
    MSFT Statistics
    I recall when Steve Jobs returned to Apple as interim CEO in late 1997.
    Apple's stock price was very low at the time and Jobs brought a lot of energy to the struggling company.
    Around this time, I thought Apple might be a good investment opportunity.
    If someone invested $10k in AAPL on 01/02/1998 and held through yesterday
    (experiencing a max drawdown of ~82% along the way), Apple stock would be worth ~$16mm!
    Did I purchase AAPL - of course not!
    AAPL Statistics
    Oh, and I've lived within 15 miles of Amazon's main corporate headquarters over the past 30+ years.
    There were many articles about Amazon published in local newspapers during the 90s.
    The company's sales took off like a rocket but profits were elusive during those times.
    I believed the stock was consistently overvalued.
    Did I purchase AMZN - of course not!
    I now regret conducting this exercise as it has triggered a major bout of depression!
  • Everyone’s thoughts on MCTOX/MCTDX?
    @Carefree It would be interesting to hear how you happened on this one and what you like about it. Suspect there’s a story there or maybe a personal situation that lends itself to this fund.
    MCTOX
    1.92% ER
    About 40/40 equity / fixed income
    10-20% “other” and a little cash
    Pretty much a “go anywhere” mandate
    They can short securities, but don’t currently seem to be shorting to a significant degree.
    Heavy investment in real estate and energy (MLPs?)
    Low asset base - only around $50 mil AUM
    Turnover 1,229% These guys are “wheeling and dealing.”
    I don’t worship at the alter of M*, but do look at what they say. In this case M* gives the fund a Negative rating. They don’t hand a lot of those out. They could be proven wrong as the fund is so new it’s hard to tell. That said, I don’t think I’d buy a fund with their negative rating. They’re generally correct on that score.
    There’s not much they like, but in particular M* faults the “excessive” fees and lack of investment experience by the managers, Following is a brief excerpt from Morningstar::
    ”Peter Montalbano brings three years of listed portfolio management experience. The team is small and inadequately equipped, with only one other listed manager supporting it. Together, the two average three years of listed portfolio management experience “
  • Everyone’s thoughts on MCTOX/MCTDX?
    New fund that has been around a couple years and wanted to get some feedback.
  • Reality check
    Twice I’ve asked absolute strangers met while traveling for investment tips. More of a conversation piece than serious talk. The first was while relaxing at a beach in the Florida Keys sometime in the early 2,000s. The fella recommended gold. Had been in a bear market. But had a great run later that year. Miners were up 30+% for the year. The second came from a young fella riding a hotel shuttle bus to the airport in Charlotte NC 3 years ago. He recommended 1 stock - NVIDA. Being of the “brilliant” variety, I completely ignored both suggestions. :) Have to wonder how much NVIDA is up since May ‘21?
  • Current CDs are Compelling
    IMO, the most compelling CP CD rates are at 5 years. This is a moment in time that will pass far quicker than many here think. Not sure what is compelling about 1-12 mo rates when Prime MMkt funds are paying just about the same and provide full flexibility for that bucket.
    Everyone has their own personal criteria for how they use brokerage CDs. I personally do not want to tie up my money for 5 years at my age, but others may be interested in doing that. Regarding MM funds, I do maintain a fair amount for liquidity reasons, but I have already started to see some decline in MM rates over the past couple of months, and I do not expect those rates to stay the same, or increase in the future.
    But to be fair, what is compelling for me, would not necessarily be compelling for others, such as you.
  • Stashing cash, Summer 2024
    @AndyJ : It's been a few years, but I can remember being dam happy to get three %. That was for 2 year CD. I started reaching out a few months early , but such is the life of an investor. Interesting times await us ! Rolling some early, rolling some late
  • Fido first impressions (vs Schwab)
    I also concur with @rforno 's observations, at least the first few. (I don't invest directly with foreign equities or do realtime trading.)
    Several years ago when I had accounts at both brokerages I compared bond prices and came to the same conclusion that Fidelity was slightly better. Curiously, the full service broker I used for munis was finding bonds for me at prices that essentially matched Fidelity's.
    Regarding Fidelity cash management - it will shortly be adding SPAXX (current SEC yield is 4.97%) as a core account option to its CMA account. Currently you're limited to a bank sweep paying 2.69% APR (2.72% APY).
    Regarding trading equities and ETFs: Schwab receives payment for order flow. Fidelity does not. (It does receive PFOF on options.) You can search for newer figures, but in 2021 "Order flow revenue made up approximately ten percent of [Schwab's] total revenue."
    https://www.aboutschwab.com/story/schwab-statement-on-payment-for-order-flow
    image
    https://brokerchooser.com/education/news/data-dashboard/payment-for-order-flow
  • About the 4% rule
    I'm not sure everyone is clear on the meaning of the 4% rule. The objectives are simplicity and very high confidence that one will not run out of money within 30 years.
    Conditions will surely change -- but we don't know when or in which direction -- adjust as necessary
    Simplicity: just stay the course, KISS, come hell or high water. No adjustments necessary.
    Gives example of how a target date fund
    Simplicity: Target date funds follow glide paths. The 4% rule hews to a fixed allocation.
    How can you straight line the 4% without taking these inputs into consideration.
    Starting in 1926, a 4% (inflation adjusted) withdrawal regimen from a 50/50 portfolio has never depleted assets in under 30 years. That includes starting in years like 1929, 1973, 1981, etc. The rule already incorporates objective risk, assuming past is prologue.
    That's not to say that people are subjectively able to handle sequence of return risk. And some people may want to plan for more than 30 years, either because they expect a longer life in retirement or their end target value is not simply "better than $0". They want to leave a legacy. And stuff happens; people may not be able to keep to a 4% budget.
    ISTM the biggest risk in the 4% rule is being left with too much money. Planning for worst case without adjustments is necessarily conservative and likely to "fail" on the upside (not spending enough). But by definition any strategy that includes making adjustments is not the simplest possible.
    For those who want to limit the risk of underspending, are willing to accept some risk of having less to spend in some years than they might otherwise like, and can manage more complex strategies (or are willing to hire someone else to do that), @Observant1 cited a good discussion of a couple of such strategies.
    Finally, using cash is very likely to fail. Over the past 96 years (1928-2023 inclusive), 3 mo. T-bill real returns have averaged 0.32%. (See cell T120 here.) Take 4%/year off of that and you're losing more than 3.5% annually. Even without compounding the loss, you'll run out of money in under 30 years.