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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Asking Guidance on Long-Term Growth through Mutual Fund Portfolio Diversification
    “… tips on how to diversify my holdings in order to increase my portfolio over time.”
    Diversification doesn’t guarantee better returns. Generally, diversification reduces risk and lowers longer term performance. If you can, throw 100% into a single low cost S&P index fund, shut your eyes for 40-50 years while ignoring the markets. Then take a look. Chances are you’ll have more money after 40 or 50 years than you would have had in a more diversified portfolio.
    But, is the above realistic?
    Most people who lived through the Great Depression beginning in 1929 wanted nothing to do ever again with investing. By some accounts, it was around 1950 when equities got back to their 1929 levels. Not many of us date back quite that far. However, most of us here lived through the ‘07–08 ”great financial crisis”. Domestic blue chip stocks / stock funds tanked about 50% over that 16-17 month period. International stock funds fared worse, some falling 60-70%. Only the very highest rated bond funds held up. Some funds invested in junk bonds lost 50-60% over that time.
    How would you react 10-12 months into the above saga with your portfolio down 35% from the previous year’s peak and the media ablaze with horror takes of loss and predictions of doom?
    By a strange quirk of math, the % gain needed to get back to “break-even” is greater than the % lost. If your portfolio falls by 25% in one year you’ll need a 33% gain the following year to get back to break-even. If you lose 50% of your portfolio you’ll need a 100% return to get back to your old level.
    Just food for thought.
    All the recommendations in this thread are excellent. Putting a portfolio together is a very personal thing. No “one-size” fits all. My only “tip” would be to become a regular Barron’s reader. No single publication has done more to help me invest over the past 50 years. It’s not glamorous. It’s not really about mutual funds. And the articles are anything but consistent. You’ll read “bulls” and “bears” in the same issue. But it will get you thinking about money … money and risk.
    Added Thought …
    I like looking at model portfolios. T Rowe Price is noted for being a good asset allocator.
    This LINK will take you to one of their web pages and a discussion of allocation, complete with pie charts. I have one minor gripe. That is they don’t include commodities in these sketches. While they can sometimes jump up and bite you, I think having 2%-5% in commodities / precious metals is a pretty good idea.
  • BLNDX On Fire This Year
    So going back 30 or so years there were a bunch of investors called the turtle traders...one guru guy trained them up as CTAs... they all made a bunch of money
    Some say they were just at the right place at the right time... commodity up cycle...trend following then hit a flat spot for quite a while
    Maybe good place to be during stagflation cycle?
    Trading currencies is tough, not that I would know but governments can flip the card table on you at any time
    My thoughts re BLNDX...is I am passing on it as long as I can get 5%plus in tbills...why get greedy and screw around with the black box stuff?
  • BLNDX On Fire This Year
    I view BLNDX as a commodities long-short fund. Manager provides great monthly commentary on his thinking. I owned it many years back but sold off all my position because I found better candidates for what I was looking for in a LS fund.
    That said, all trend follower funds work till they don't.
  • Asking Guidance on Long-Term Growth through Mutual Fund Portfolio Diversification
    Hello Everyone,
    I'm new to the globe of mutual fund investing, so I'm looking for tips on how to diversify my holdings in order to increase my portfolio over time. My portfolio is now made up of a combination of bond and equity funds, but I want to make sure that my approach is sound and situated for future returns.
    This is a quick look at everything I currently own:
    Mutual Funds for Equity:
    Bond funds: T. Rowe Prices Blue Chip Growth Funds (TRBCX), Financing Contrafund (FCNTX), Vanguard 500 Index Funds (VFIAX), and
    PIMCO Income Funds (PONAX) and Vanguard Total Bonds Market Index Funds (VBTLX)
    I would much appreciate your insights on the following few questions I have:
    Diversification: Do my bond and stock holdings exhibit sufficient diversity? Do you suggest adding any particular industries or fund kinds (international, small-cap, sector-specific) to attain greater diversification?
    Growth Potential: Do you think certain mutual funds or investment strategies have particularly significant potential for growth over the next five to ten years, given the state of the market? Funds with a solid track record of success and reputed fund managers catch my attention in particular.
    Risk Control: In what ways do you control risk in the mutual fund holdings? Do you employ any specific funds or different asset classes as a hedge against future market downturns?
    Costs and Fees: When choosing mutual funds, how significant are cost ratios and mlops fees? What are some recommendations for locating affordable, high-quality funds?
    I appreciate your assistance in advance! I'm excited to hone my investing strategy for greater long-term rewards and to gain from the collective wisdom of this group.
  • BLNDX On Fire This Year
    I used M* many years back so my info (and memory) is likely dated. M* does not hold a candle to Empower. You don't need to connect any of your accounts to Empower, it can be 100% manual. I agree with the data breach risk of Empower.
    Empower is a superior product to have a full picture of your net worth and allocation at your finger tips.
  • How many funds is the right number?
    Roth IRAs became popular after 2010 when the income limits were dropped.
    Rorh Conversions don't require earned income.
    But recently, the stretch was eliminated for most beneficiaries - now most inherited IRAs must be drained in 10 years & annual RMDs may be required too in some cases.
    See Secure 2.0 thread for more details.
  • July MFO Ratings & Flows Posted
    Thank you ybb. There is a note near the atop the chart explaining the roll-up methodology, but you mean add note inside the chart itself?
    I do plan to expand notations and add to Definition page as we finished rolling-out the flow tools. Last couple steps: add flows for Fixed Periods, like we've done for Calendar Years. Then, integrate into MultiSearch, giving ability to screen for flows ... along with risk and return performance. That should be pretty cool.
    Yes, the daily (or monthly) flows in the bottom bar chart are also rolled up, since Total Net Flows are computed from these values real time.
    I will check on the CITs. That might help explain what Devesh pointed out with FCNTX at the last webinar. It's lost billions over last five years, despite good performance ... but unlike D&C, outflows cannot be explained by share class. Its AUM remains about $120B, because performance has offset outflows, apparently. If not CITs, maybe just the challenge to actively managed funds, even good ones?
    c
    FCNTX Flows and Return Data Last 5 Years
    image

  • July MFO Ratings & Flows Posted
    Just posted all ratings to MFO Premium site through May, which includes month to date performance through Friday, 19 June.
    Beginning with this update, all flow data now rolls-up to the oldest share class level. Flows of other share classes remain as reported by Refinitiv.
    This update was adopted after me getting alarmed at the billions of dollars of outflows from DODGX, who has rewarded investors handsomely these past three years. But alas, the outflows were just inflows to newly established DOXGX share class.
  • Rising Auto & Home Insurance Costs
    I have home/auto/umbrella through State Farm. I've had a couple major (~$100,000) home claims and a few minor claims over the years. Perhaps it is my local people, but I would say they have done more than right by me. No jumps in rates due to claims, either. Not interested in pursuing lower cost.
  • Oil Billionaires Bet on Trump’s Energy Agenda
    @BaluBalu Thanks for the link I reread the comments with my rather general current question in mind. Midstream stocks such as ET and EPD initially continue to make sense too me because of the increased volume through the pipes. But upstream producers such as FANG may well get hurt if the restraint on production in recent years gets upended by an increased numbers of operators. What about downstream operations? There will be more quantity to process. Perhaps refiners and distributors will benefit.
  • BLNDX On Fire This Year
    @staycalm,
    Thanks.
    Your allocation info is what I was looking for to see how large an Alt allocation you have. I thought it might be easy for you to just copy and paste from your portfolio tracker and so I made a broader request.
    The purpose of the price movement request is to see how each of your Alts did today. I have a sense for how general equity and fixed income have performed today.
    I do not think I ever got to more than 15% in Alts. Of the many I tried, I had success with only one (QMNIX) because it trended for some time. I thought it was too much work and gave up on them for years. Instead I was happy just to dial up or down equity allocation and to go out on the credit spectrum - seemed less work for me. I got into QLEIX earlier this year and very recently into BLNDX - both meaningless size positions for me - I think my mental block is I need to be able to explain the price movement of what I own (the "too much work" comes from this mental friction).
    Do you include tactical allocation funds like MRFOX in equity or Alts?
  • MRFOX
    @BaluBalu,
    I could see over the next several years stepping into VELIX to be 10%-15% of the portfolio...I'm likely a couple years away from stepping away from the corporate work environment...who knows, still enjoying most days what I do...and am therefore in that danger zone, within 5 years of retirement (whatever that means, right?) and post 5 years retirement...I'm very very high in cash equiv's, like over 90%...works for me, wouldn't recommend it for most but I should be transparent and state my wife and I were in the highest tax bracket for quite a few years...so what we left on the table with the uptick in markets we overcame slippage of inflation with salary/bonus/stock options etc...fully acknowledge that I've been actually taking on risk by being too conservative but on days like this, I'm going for a bike ride this evening and not overly concerned about what the markets are doing...back in my younger days, in the 20's and 30's, was uber aggressive in the stock market...not anymore...
    Kind Regards,
    BF
  • How many funds is the right number?
    It sounds like you're in good shape - drawing modest spending cash from T-IRAs annually and owning no or little tax on those draws. From that perspective, conversions may indeed be just an added complication.
    I've spoken with enough people who prefer simplicity, so take the following nudge toward conversions as just a suggestion, perhaps not worth the effort as you say.
    I expect that the RMDs will have to be bigger than the amount I'm currently taking each year in January, but I'm confident we'll still owe no 1040 tax.
    Roth conversions now can reduce the size of those RMDs and keep more of the money tax-sheltered for longer. This may not matter to you since you don't expect to owe taxes either way.
    But if you're thinking of leaving a legacy, it could matter to your heirs. They'll owe taxes on an inherited T-IRA as they withdraw money. They won't owe taxes on inherited taxable accounts (they get a step-up in basis), but all future earnings will be taxable to them. They won't owe taxes on inherited Roths and the money can continue growing tax free for up to ten years. Even longer for a spouse who inherits.
    Each person's situation is different. The amount of money you might convert could be small enough that it's just not worth the hassle. In my case, some of my beneficiaries are nonresident aliens living where there is no tax treaty. They will be subject to 30% withholding. So I'm doing conversions over many years to reduce my T-IRAs.
    Finally, the good news - you get another year (until age 73) before RMDs kick in.
  • How many funds is the right number?
    @msf. @catch22
    Hello, guys. For several years after retirement, wifey's salary served to fund my T-IRA. We just chose to throw the $$$ into my IRA instead of hers. Mine is much more substantial. Then some life changes made funding ANY T-IRA impractical. Her IRA lives, and so does my own. Under current circumstances, converting to a Roth just seems like a needless complication. We grow the taxable side now, and I'm in the habit of taking X amount from my T-IRA in January each year. We owe no 1040 tax. When I get to age 72 in a couple of years, I'll continue with the same habit, taking out my RMD in January and I'll just redeploy the money, investing it on the taxable side. I expect that the RMDs will have to be bigger than the amount I'm currently taking each year in January, but I'm confident we'll still owe no 1040 tax.
    When all our stuff (except her small T-IRA) was with TRP, we were limited to just their own funds. After switching everything to Schwab, the field is wide open. But I'm rather pleased, still, with my TRP selections, plus the Weitz fund that her T-IRA is in. So, no changes are expected or needed, until junk bonds turn South. Then that money will need a new home. I'm always looking for new prospects, and have some in mind, as needed. Our tax bracket will not be going UP, even after RMDs kick-in at 72. (Two more years.)
    Your responses are much appreciated. The people on this MFO discussion board actually care. I do thank you.
  • MRFOX
    @BaluBalu...I already have a high majority of my investment portfolio in Tbills, US Treasury mmkt's, Tnotes 2 years or less and some CDs from major banks...am looking at VELIX for exposure to the stock market...not sure having shorts on all the time makes sense...I'd then just lower exposure to stocks and add to cash holdings.
    A better comparison set would be VELIX vs VFINX (Vanguard equiv to SP500), no?...and looking out over the next 5 years...I'd would and AM taking the VELIX side of that wager...we'll see...
  • MainStay name to change on numerous funds
    Consider yourself fortunate that you haven't been doing this for fifty years (or have you?)
    My father purchased shares of "One William Street" back when mutual funds issued certificates (image below not his certificate)
    image
    This was originally a fund run by Lehman. Subsequent owners due to mergers, sales of investment units, etc. were Lehman Brothers Kuhn Loeb Inc, Shearson Lehman Brothers, Shearson Lehman Hutton,

    Salomon Brothers, Salamon Smith Barney (under Travelers, then Citicorp), Smith Barney (under Citicorp),

    Legg Mason, and now Franklin Templeton.
    Fund family/fund name changes didn't always coincide with parent changes (as with Mainstay changing to NY Life).
    Fund names evolved from One William Street to Salomon Brothers Investors Fund, Salomon Brothers Investors Value Fund, Legg Mason Partners Investors Value Fund, Legg Mason Clearbridge Investors Value Fund, Legg Mason Clearbridge Large Cap Value Fund, Clearbridge Large Cap Value Fund. (The three Legg Mason names were in a span of just four years: 2009-2013.)
    Alas, same as it ever was. Yes, most of it is nonsense - the name changes, the mergers, the ads.
    I wrote a more detailed description of this fund's evolution a decade ago:
    https://mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/comment/21862/#Comment_21862
  • on the failure of focus
    IIRC, when I read Random Walk back in the 80's, Malakiel was saying you could build a diversified portfolio with 20-30 Stocks. He might have changed that over the years. After poking around on the internet, it seems many people agree.
    Anyway, seems to me a concentrated, or focused, fund is something heavily weighted to one, maybe two, ideas. And you can have that problem no matter how many stocks are in the portfolio.
    Given the number of examples in the OP, we could be dealing with random chance.
  • on the failure of focus
    @mskursh.
    "... the surviving focus/select funds that exist today or have long track records are standing on the corpses of many that have gone extinct..."
    ouch.
    "Standing on the shoulders of giants" is a metaphor I've embraced for years.
    But corpses?
    Never heard that before.
    But maybe I should have.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    @BaluBalu / I’m just touchy. Sorry.
    I don’t buy the turnaround story. What turnaround? LOL. The stock got overpriced a few years ago when consumer staples were hot as investments. Topped out over $135 in January 2022 and then began falling, dipping briefly below $100 about 5 or 6 weeks ago. Adding to the decline has been a very hot dollar which has appreciated for years now against the franc and other global currencies. If someone isn’t interested in taking a gambit on currencies they should avoid buying foreign stocks unless there’s some currency hedging.
    Also hurting has been the fear among investors “weight-loss” drugs will reduce the value of food companies. Perhaps well placed. But this misses that NSRGY is much larger than food, being in many consumer staples like pet food, bottled waters, cosmetics.
    List of Nestlie brands
    I bought in at around $102 a month or so ago. Sold at $105.54 10-12 days back. Jumped in at $105.62 this morning. My cash is mostly in a TOD account. Buying something in an IRA requires selling another security first. So, I really don’t have the luxury of sitting on a limit order for long because the security I sold might go out of reach. To me, whether I have 5% sitting in NSRGY or in an intermediate-long duration bond fund is of little consequence. If anything, a 10-year duration bond fund is probably more volatile than this stock and with a more limited return potential.
    Happy investing!
  • How many funds is the right number?
    The answer - 11 (prime number).
    Why stop at 11, 13, 17, and 19 are also prime numbers.
    But I like your Prime thing and why I have used 2,3 in the last several years and 5 for many years.