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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Pessimism is deepening as bellwether companies warn of worsening economic and business conditions.
    I am surprised the market is not down more, but I think that has to do with earnings only just now starting to drop. A lot of this may be due to the strong job market ( with millions of people still not wanting to work because of covid, disability etc) and the overhang of the large stimulus checks sent out in 2020 and 2021.
    I worry that the inflation we are seeing is mainly due to drought, supple chain disruptions and the War, none of which will respond to the Fed, until unemployment hits 5 or 6% or more and we are in a severe recession with crash in earnings.
    While the financial system is in much better shape to withstand this than in 2007 back then there was a Fed available solution as they guaranteed everybody except Lehman, and we started out of it relatively quickly ( after dropping 45%)
    Maybe if there had not been that third of fourth stimulus pumped into the economy or if they had started raising rates earlier inflation would have started down now, reassuring everybody.
    If you believe all of the above, long term treasuries or very highly rated corporate bonds are the place to be, I think.
    I think you have to be worried that it will take five years for stocks to recover.
  • What is a “Blood in the Streets” Moment?
    Interesting (but ad filled) article addressing the issue (please ignore ads) The Capitalist
    For: “Everyone is telling you not to buy and the news is extremely negative. The media is known to exaggerate issues and cause negative emotions like fear, rage, and hopelessness.”
    Against: “Japan also crashed in 1991 and did not recover to this day.”
    Here’s an Investopedia article mentioning Warren Buffett and Sir John Templeton’s takes on the issue of contrarian investing: https://www.investopedia.com/articles/financial-theory/08/contrarian-investing.asp
    Not intended as investment advice. Posted simply to stimulate thought … Any indicators (technical or otherwise) as to the “right” amount of bloodletting needed to make equities appealing to you again?
    image
  • Bloomberg Wall Street Week
    This was my first time listening to Tracy Alloway.
    I was impressed with her thoughtful insights.
    Kristina Hooper was just ok.
    The Odd Lots podcast which Ms. Alloway co-hosts has been referenced by other financial writers/bloggers.
    I'll have to give it a listen...
  • 2022 YTD Damage
    I'm wondering if the employment/unemployment picture is becoming fragmented. There are many reports of large layoffs in businesses and financial operations which are large-scale operations. But, as Crash mentions, not so much in smaller local businesses, largely retail, restaurant, and other "service" type jobs.
    I'm guessing that the overall employment picture may be more complex than is generally being reported. It may be that the reporting mechanisms were not designed to accurately reflect the situation that we have right now, and therefore don't give us sufficient granularity.
    I tend to think you're 100% correct. And so, the Fed's efforts to do anything at all based on data will be a muddled, sometimes counterproductive mess. But what else is there? The cavalry is not coming over the hill to rescue us. Portfolio down today YTD by -17.631%. Make it stop, someone. Please. I'm gonna have to locate my spare set of BRASS balls while I continue to buy shares at lower prices in small dribs and drabs, betting on the future.
  • 2022 YTD Damage
    I'm wondering if the employment/unemployment picture is becoming fragmented. There are many reports of large layoffs in businesses and financial operations which are large-scale operations. But, as Crash mentions, not so much in smaller local businesses, largely retail, restaurant, and other "service" type jobs.
    I'm guessing that the overall employment picture may be more complex than is generally being reported. It may be that the reporting mechanisms were not designed to accurately reflect the situation that we have right now, and therefore don't give us sufficient granularity.
  • FPA customer service?
    I chose to consolidate my holdings at a brokerage (Fidelity) for simplicity. I'm 80 and when I go, I'd rather not leave a mix of financial institutions for my executor to deal with.
    (Not that I want this to happen soon!!)
    My Dad passed away six years ago and I was the executor. Most of his investments consisted of stocks in a couple of TD Ameritrade accounts. But there were a few smaller bits. Each place he used was another place to figure out and contact, provide death certificates and instructions, etc. And always by mail.
    I don't want to leave that mess behind.
    My wife and I do have several accounts at Fidelity: Individual, joint, my IRA, several Roth IRAs. Most each contains a mix of mutual funds, ETFs and individual stocks. But they are all under one roof.
    As msf noted, Janus has D shares only available directly with them. When I consolidated at Fidelity, the Fidelity folks handled the transfer from Janus. We wound up with a different class of shares (and probably a slightly higher expense ratio).
    The CSRs at Fidelity are uniformly knowledgeable and helpful. For instance, when interest rates started going up in the Spring, I decided I'd better pay closer to attention to the Core account/MMF in each of our accounts. The random CSR I reached on the phone explained quickly and simply the differences and restrictions between FZDXX and SPAXX.
    There are no fees to maintain these accounts.
    I had never thought about the possibility that a big operation like Fidelity might have better security than a smaller investment house, but as Lewis Braham says, it seems likely. I access our accounts from my desktop computer at home (an iMac); when I am logging on, they must text a code to my cellphone which I enter. This process works very quickly and smoothly (and it makes me feel much more secure).
    I tried using a Fidelity app on my iPhone, but I had to log on to the Internet though my browser anyhow, so I took off the app. Every once in a while I log on to check something, but not to do anything.
    Anyhow, I'm very satisfied with Fidelity (and think my heirs will be also).
    David
  • Here’s the latest YTD numbers from Bloomberg - 3 major indexes gain / loss
    No wonder why Woods screaming ****rate halt ...deflation*** past few wks. She maybe couple months early
    So many folks lost $$ these days
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/she-never-explained-anything-im-a-senior-citizen-and-i-lost-100-000-in-the-stock-market-this-year-can-i-sue-my-financial-adviser-11663719152?mod=quentin-fottrell
    Dear Quentin,
    I am a senior citizen and have suffered major losses to the tune of $100,000 in the recent stock market turmoil. Can I sue my financial adviser? I understand the dynamics of the market as far as its ups and downs, and have ridden them out before.
    However, it’s been different with the market in this timeframe insofar as tech stocks are taking a major hit, as well as others. I advised my financial adviser I was heading into retirement months before all of this happened.
    As my account was taking losses, she did nothing to warn me that given the current situation it might be a good idea to move my assets to another area to lessen the losses — and return at a later date when things have stabilized.
    ....
  • FPA customer service?
    I've done that and then transferred the shares to a brokerage for convenience. I have seen soft closes where the fund says that shares purchased directly in a new account cannot be transferred for some period of time. But even then, the time limit does expire.
    OTOH, Janus makes its cheaper D shares available only through direct investment. That's a little different from the situation described above. The shares weren't closed at intermediaries - they were never offered through those channels.
    Only Class D Shares (the “Shares”) are offered by this Prospectus. The Shares are offered directly through the Janus Henderson funds to eligible investors by calling 1-800-525-3713 or at janushenderson.com/individual. The Shares are not offered through financial intermediaries.
    Janus Value Funds Prospectus
    For several years, Janus only allowed legacy investors - those who already had a direct account with Janus - to invest in class D shares. A couple of years ago it reopened direct investing to new customers. An interesting example of a fund family where you might want to invest directly (for lower cost) but couldn't.
    https://ir.janushenderson.com/news-events/press-releases/news-details/2020/Janus-Henderson-Investors-to-Reopen-U.S.-Direct-Business-Channel-to-New-Investors/default.aspx
  • FPA customer service?
    I can only think of a handful of funds perhaps worth buying directly, and even those I question if it's worth the trouble and the security risks. If you consider how much wealth the largest tech companies have, you have to imagine that they are the biggest draw for the best IT and tech security employees in the world. Where does that leave the small boutique fund family? I imagine some outsource the security of their accounts, but it's often an unknown. I have met or heard of accounts of IT folks at small businesses in recent years. I have been less than impressed. Is that guy who has trouble getting your printer to work also the one now supposed to protect your info? Perhaps I'm being overly paranoid. Then again there are certain large financial firms that have had tech problems lately, too. Meh.
  • FOMC Statement, 9/21/22
    Notes from above & Fed Chair Powell’s Press Conference
    Rates: Fed funds +75bps to 3.00-3.25% & more hikes to come; for reserve balances 3.15%; discount rate 3.25%. Real rates to rise across the board. Further +100 to +125 bps rise in fed funds expected by the yearend, so people can guess 75 or 50 or 25 bps hikes at the 2 remaining FOMC meetings. Fed policy to remain restrictive. Fed pause may be at some point, but Fed easing unlikely any time soon.
    QT to continue at -$60 billion/mo for Treasuries, -$35 billion/mo for MBS.
    Long-term inflation target is +2% average by 2024-25. The current PCE & CPI are too high. Future inflation-expectations are reasonable. Housing/rent (OER) contribution is high and sticky. No special consideration for housing.
    Post-pandemic economy will slow to below trend. Financial conditions will tighten; credit spreads will widen. Unemployment rate will rise (labor markets are too strong now, even out of balance). Wage growth will moderate. Soft landing is becoming less likely and recession more likely.
    Most global central banks are tightening. They share information but there is no global coordination.
    Complex global factors include pandemic, Russia-Ukraine war, supply-chain shocks, energy issues. Some improvements have been seen recently.
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/thread/158/fomc-statements-6-7-weeks?page=1&scrollTo=782
  • FPA customer service?
    I'm curious regarding investors who buy directly from fund families in 2022 like this one: How much does security concern you? How do you feel about sharing your social security number and birth date with yet another financial institution and entrusting your assets with them? Do you worry about the institution getting hacked or that there could be internal security risks?
    I have not worried about these things. Perhaps I should worry, but so far there have been no security problems that I am aware of. My few interactions with brokerages have been disappointing at best. They mishandled things, put money in the wrong place, got the numbers wrong, charged inappropriate fees, and through these actions I lost money because of the blundering of the brokerages. All these things were corrected but it took me time and effort to get that to happen. By contrast most of my direct interactions with funds and fund families have been excellent. I've had direct email exchanges with the fund managers themselves as well as with customer service people. I've had productive phone talks with the latter. I even got a hand-written letter from one manager. All of this had made investing a personal pleasure. In addition I've always been a hands-on, DIY kind of guy. I've done my own research before investing. It's a personal characteristic, whether it is flaw or a virtue I cannot say.
    It's timely that you ask why people invest directly rather than through a brokerage. I was contemplating asking the reverse question: why so many posters at MFO use a brokerage when it is (usually) so quick and easy to deal with the fund (families) directly. Now I have one answer: security. This is certainly a point worth contemplating.
  • FPA customer service?
    I'm curious regarding investors who buy directly from fund families in 2022 like this one: How much does security concern you? How do you feel about sharing your social security number and birth date with yet another financial institution and entrusting your assets with them? Do you worry about the institution getting hacked or that there could be internal security risks?
  • What’s a Pig Butchering Scam? Here’s How to Avoid Falling Victim to One.
    What is so awful here is both the victims and the victimizers are abused. An excerpt from the longer article:
    .Fan’s descent into forced labor began, as human trafficking often does, with what seemed like a bona fide opportunity. He had been a prep cook at his sister’s restaurant in China’s Fujian province until it closed, then he delivered meals for an app-based service. In March 2021, Fan was offered a marketing position with what purported to be a well-known food delivery company in Cambodia. The proposed salary, $1,000 a month, was enticing by local standards, and the company offered to fly him in. Fan was so excited that he told his older brother, who already worked in Cambodia, about the opportunity. Fan’s brother quit his job and joined him. By the time they realized the offer was a sham, it was too late. Their new bosses wouldn’t let them leave the compound where they had been put to work.
    Unlike the countless people trafficked before them who were forced to perform sex work or labor for commercial shrimping operations, the two brothers ended up in a new occupation for trafficking victims: playing roles in financial scams that have swindled people across the globe, including in the United States.
    Tens of thousands of people from China, Taiwan, Thailand, Vietnam and elsewhere in the region have been similarly tricked. Phony job ads lure them into working in Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar, where Chinese criminal syndicates have set up cyberfraud operations …..
    ….About 8,000 miles from Cambodia, an American who lives near San Francisco got a WhatsApp message on Oct. 7, 2021, from a stranger calling herself Jessica. She seemed to have reached him by mistake. Jessica asked the man, whose middle name is Yuen, if they knew each other; she said she had found his number on her phone and didn’t know why. Yuen responded that he didn’t know her. But Jessica was chatty and friendly, and her photo was alluring, so they kept talking….
    At the moment Jessica initiated contact, Yuen was vulnerable. His father was in a hospital, dying from a lung disease. He had entrusted Yuen, the youngest of four siblings, with the power to decide whether to cut off his life support. It would also be up to Yuen to plan his father’s funeral and distribute his estate.
    The family had immigrated to the U.S. from Hong Kong decades earlier. Yuen, who is in his early 50s and works as an accountant for a major university, was more affluent than his siblings, who are all older than him. He felt it was his duty to take care of them in old age, much as he was caring for his father and had cared for his late mother. Jessica told him she admired his commitment to his family. She shared her own tale of having a grandfather in the hospital….
    Yuen made it clear he couldn’t afford to lose any money. If he did, he said, he’d have to kill himself. Jessica said there was no need to worry: Uncle was never wrong. Yuen owed it to his father to seize the opportunity.
    On Oct. 26, the day he had to go to the hospital to discuss his father’s end-of-life care, Yuen put money on the line for the first time. A conservative investor and lifelong saver, he’d been petrified to put even $2,000 into the brokerage. Jessica convinced him to start with $10,000 and taught him the two-step process to fund his account. First, he wired money from his bank to buy a cryptocurrency called ethereum. Then he could transfer the ethereum to a crypto wallet, whose address she provided.
    Jessica insisted that using a cryptocurrency would help Yuen minimize his tax burden. He admitted he had very little idea of what he was doing….
    Jessica didn’t seem to grasp what a hospice was. When Yuen explained that it was a care facility for the terminally ill, she perked up: “You need to make more money.” Jessica told him he should raise his account balance to $500,000 so he could cover the cost more easily.
  • FPA customer service?
    Some financial institutions lock accounts if no logins for 6 mo. No experience with FPA.
  • Quantitative tightening
    I read Bloomberg article last wk. Worth look at it again, it sounds like QT may have minimal impact to market but to early to tell and no one really knows, first time this ever happens.
    https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-08-31/federal-reserve-quantitative-tightening-fallout-should-be-limited
    ***Although throughout history there have been a few times when central banks had successfully reduced their balance sheets assets, this is an unusual time. The extraordinarily large reverse repo balance shows the true extent of the extra liquidity in the financial system. So as QT unfolds, it will be important to watch whether the reverse repo balance declines and how fast. The QT numbers appear large, but when compared to the fluctuations from the TGA account and the reverse repos, the scheduled increase is rather tame.****
    Google search incognito if want read whole article
  • Pessimism is deepening as bellwether companies warn of worsening economic and business conditions.
    Following are excerpts from a New York Times article, heavily edited for brevity:
    A parade of prominent investors and corporate executives have made it clear that they believed the worst was yet to come for the economy and financial markets.
    After hitting a low in June, the S&P 500 had rallied more than 17 percent into mid-August, before losing steam again. The sell-off this week leaves the index just 5.6 percent above the bottom reached in June, after a fall of 0.7 percent on Friday that brought its weekly losses close to 5 percent. The market has only dropped 5 percent in a week three times this year.
    Yet even after the swift decline this week, some of the most powerful trading houses in the world, deploying trillions of dollars on behalf of pension funds, governments and other investors, are warning that there is more pain ahead.
    “If you asked me a year ago, ‘What is the worst scenario for financial markets?’ I think things are now worse than anything we could have imagined,” said the head of Norway’s sovereign wealth fund, the largest of its kind. The fund manages money generated by Norway’s extensive oil and gas sales and has $1.4 trillion invested around the world.
    Business leaders, policymakers and ordinary Americans are all grappling with the end of a decade of rock-bottom interest rates that helped propel the economy after the 2008 financial crisis, and a shift to a much-less familiar, once-in-a-generation burst of inflation. Crimped supply chains, the war in Ukraine and an emerging energy crisis are among a host of challenges that add to a level of uncertainty that some investors say they have not seen in decades.
    The drop on Friday came as the stock of logistics giant FedEx cratered more than 21 percent, after it warned that its profit was being hit by weakness in Asia and Europe. FedEx said that it would cut some services, close locations and freeze hiring, becoming the latest in a string of companies that have gone public with their concerns and rattled investor confidence.
    FedEx is seen as an economic bellwether because its package shipping business reflects both business and consumer demand. On Thursday the company’s chief executive predicted a “worldwide recession.”
    General Electric’s chief financial officer also warned of challenges, bemoaning lingering supply chain issues that remain “tough” and “impair our ability to deliver to our customers.”
    Economic worries were also evident in other corners of the financial markets: Corporate debt prices fell and oil prices notched a third straight week of losses.
    Mr. Tangen, of Norway’s sovereign wealth fund, said that he did not think there was an investment area anywhere in the world likely to make money in the near future. “That’s the really depressing thing,” he said.
  • 1-Yr T-Bill Yield Print 4.00% Today
    "Heard on the news today that 30 year fixed mortgages are now over 6%, Not that long ago they were 3-4%. That has to hit the housing market like a sledge hammer."
    @hank- At this point in time, I agree with you regarding the damage to the housing market. But what I'm having trouble with is the fact that back in the 70s, at least in SF, 30-year mortgage rates were typically in the 8% range, or even a little over. I remember, because we had an 8.5% mortgage for our first home, and that was with an excellent credit rating.
    And yet the real estate market, at least here in SF, wasn't in any particular trouble. Lots of people were buying and selling homes in that environment. Also, unlike today, there was no great shortage of "affordable" housing in the SF Bay Area, because there was still land available for new building in nearby areas.
    I really have no idea, but it seems to me that there must have been other factors involved in the general financial situation then, compared to now. I'd be very curious to know a bit more about all of that.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Curious...do you think the technicals would indicate something like $95B coming off the CBs balance sheets and the impact on stonks, rate hikes and the impact of policy errors contributing to inflation continuning on and on....why do many think the fed will pivot anytime soon with inflation still running so hot (and even hotter in reality than what the gov't says it is)....that 4% 1year Tbill looks purdy good to me right now...Baseball Fan
    @Baseball_Fan - I’m trying to cut through your rambling macro analysis. Would you please address some of the following questions? Best Wishes
    “Curious … Do you think the technicals … ”
    What technicals? Not everyone uses technical analysis. Please identify which “technicals” you watch and base your investment decisions on? I’ve tried to help out by listing a few common technical indicators below:
    - Moving Averages
    - Moving Average Convergence and Divergence
    - Relative Strength Indicator (RSI)
    - Bollinger Bands
    - Volume
    - Exponential Moving Average
    - Money Flow Index
    “ … would indicate something like $95B coming off the CBs balance sheets”
    Over what period of time? Do you have a source verifying this will be completed within a definite time period? It took over a decade for the Federal Reserve to amass their bond holdings, beginning with the near depression that threatened the economy between 2007 and 2009.
    “and the impact on stonks” (sic?)
    Not all stocks are the same. Financials? Commodities? Growth? Domestic or foreign? Also omitted here is any reference to time frame. Do you mean by the end or 2022 or are your concerns related to further out (5-10 years)?
    “rate hikes”
    Why would you consider rate hikes to be bad for equities? Financials tend to do very well when longer term rates rise. It is true that the most speculative areas tend to suffer as the cost of borrowing increases. (However, many are already down 50-70% this year.) But it’s not as cut & dry as you would have us believe. Rates have been extremely low for many years now. Bound to rise some day. Yet you and many others have over that time invested in equities for the long term - even knowing rates would someday rise. What changed?
    “the impact of policy errors”
    That’s a sweeping assertion based it seems on conjecture. Please explain why that risk is higher now than in March 2020 (the covid related financial crisis) or March 2009 (the beginning of the last bull market). Policy errors can occur at any point in time. So can other negative factors like war, political chaos, natural disaster. As investors in companies we’re accustomed to accepting those risks.
    “inflation continuing on and on … “
    Says who? Do you have some psychic in mind who can forecast inflation years out?
    “(Will) the fed pivot any time soon … ?”
    What particular “pivot” are you referencing? After you explain that, please explain why an equity investor should base long term decisions on this ill defined hypothetical concept.
    “inflation still running so hot”
    That’s redundant as you referenced it above. Here you seem to prophesy inflation will remain “so hot” ? … There’s no definitive way I know of to confirm / predict the level of inflation 1, 2 or 3 years out. Shall we base our long term equity investment decisions on such speculation?
    “even hotter in reality than what the gov’t says it is …”
    Isn’t this something folks have long ragged about on this forum and elsewhere? There’s been numerous threads over the years examining the various inflation measures (there are several). So, you’re entitled to your prejudice on that point. But why do you find the discrepancy between your own numbers and what the Federal Bureau of Statistics determines to be of greater importance today than it was 3 years ago or 10 years ago?
    “that 4% 1 year TBill looks puffy good to me right now”
    Good. Glad you find TBills a good investment for your needs. Bear in mind that’s for just 1 year. Equity investors by nature are investing for much longer periods. Contemplate that if you harvest your 4% TBill a year from now, you might find that stocks in general have appreciated more than 4%. I don’t think it’s at all unreasonable to think they might. (Some I own move 4% in a single day.) In such case, you will have lost ground and possibly face buying in to equities than at a net loss. If inflation is running as “hot” as you think, why are you comfortable with just 4%?