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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Vanguard Website
    Our recent transfer out of Vangurad to Fido went smoothly in LT a week.
    We had an Admiral fund VTMFX transferred to Schwab. I asked our rep, who we have known for years and agreed to wave the purchase fee. We have a pretty big account so that may be one reason why.
    Doesn’t hurt to ask. The rep is Schwab’s big advantage. Lack of sweep MMF big big disadvantage
  • Vanguard Website
    It was not an easy decision for us on Vanguard after being investors for over 30 years. The company has changed…
    As I mentioned on this board, we initiated to move all tax-deferred accounts out to Fidelity. The transfer was completed with 5 days through ACAT, and the cost base information arrived several days later. As of yesterday, we transfer half of our joint account to Fidelity. We decide to keep the other half at Vanguard for the same reasons @msf mentioned above.
    I can confirm that Fidelity offers $1,000 per $1M asset transfer to Fidelity after 60 days. They assigned an agent directly to oversee the transfer. The process is straightforward but it is nice touch to have a history with a specific person. And that is something Vanguard lacks. Additionally, we were contact from Fidelity’s financial consultant immediately to offer their service. I hesitated until we are ready to engage with them.
    By the way, we have Vanguard managed part of our asset through their Advisory Select service (minimum $500k) as part of an experiment in case I pass away before my wife. We ended that relationships immediately when we decided to move on from Vanguard.
  • Fido first impressions (vs Schwab)
    For me.
    1. MM is a small problem. I sell a fund and buy a MM and Schwab pays more.
    2. Schwab pays the monthly distribution on the same day while Fidelity is late by 1-2 days.
    3. Schwab online is more intuitive.
    4. Here come the biggest advantage for Schwab. I trade only mutual funds and preferably Inst shares. Schwab waves the $49.95 fee while at Fidelity I hardly ever got that. 4 switches annually for 5 accounts is a $1000.
    5. This is the most annoying at Fidelity. My trade goes like this. I sell all the shares and buy the new position on the same day and most of the money is in IRA. I trade bond fund.
    Suppose I sold PIMIX worth 1 million. Fidelity would not allow you to buy another fund online, you must call a rep. They would only allow you to buy 90%=$900K, even if you sold a bond fund. Sometimes I have to argue with rookie reps who say you can't do it.
    The above means that in 20 trades if I miss just 0.1% or more equals to another $1-3K annually.
    At Schwab I sell one fund at 1 Mill and buy another at $995 online, no rep or wasting time is needed because these funds hardly move.
    5. Schwab is a real bank, Fidelity isn't.
    6. Schwab will match any cash rewards on bringing in money, even on smaller amounts Fidelity doesn't, all you do ask your branch rep.
    7. I get constant calls from Fidelity reps to "help" me which I don
    need, I never got a call from Schwab.
    8. Schwab has more new funds I like. I also brought 2 funds I like into Schwab by calling in, could never do it at Fidelity.
    9. I have a Fidelity account over 25 years and Schwab over 20 years.
    10. In the last several years Schwab rep knowledge went down a bit, Fidelity much more.
  • Reality check
    Stock picking is not easy over time and I certainly don’t have the time and skills to do that consistently, Thus we use mutual funds (both index and active) and they provide good enough return for us. In recent years, we include active ETFs that open up more possibilities in our asset allocation. Not trying to overly greedy, we stride to keep up with S&P500 index while reducing the downside risk as our goal. So far so good.
    We got lucky (not skills) with few stock picks:
    Bought lot of Apple when Steve Job introduced iPhone back in the 90’s and the stock has done well.
    Started buying BRKB after reading Warren Buffet’s books. When Charlie Munger joined Buffet, we continue to add on every dips. Through Buffet we learn to be humble in order to be a good investor.
    With the lately AI craze, we stay within our competency and pick a semiconductor ETF, SMH, instead NVIDA. Even though SMH has 25% NVDA, the rest are “picks and shovels” companies similar to those of the gold mining days. So far the thesis holds up.
    Over the years, we have too many loser stocks to list here. Thus, we hire good active managers to run the funds for us. There is something to be said about diversification with just a S&P500 index fund or ETF.
  • Reality check
    Twice I’ve asked absolute strangers met while traveling for investment tips. More of a conversation piece than serious talk. The first was while relaxing at a beach in the Florida Keys sometime in the early 2,000s. The fella recommended gold. Had been in a bear market. But had a great run later that year. Miners were up 30+% for the year. The second came from a young fella riding a hotel shuttle bus to the airport in Charlotte NC 3 years ago. He recommended 1 stock - NVIDA. Being of the “brilliant” variety, I completely ignored both suggestions. :) Have to wonder how much NVIDA is up since May ‘21?
    Don't feel too bad.
    A coworker asked me for a stock tip in 1995 or 1996.
    I disclosed that I only invested in mutual funds and was not a stock expert.
    I suggested he consider Microsoft which recently released Windows 95.
    IIRC, he invested ~$10k initially in MSFT and another ~$10k a few weeks later.
    My coworker left the company a short time later and he didn't even buy me lunch for the stock tip! :-(
    MSFT got hammered in the Dot Com bubble and it also performed poorly under Steve Balmer.
    Still, if someone invested $10k in MSFT on 01/02/1996 and held through yesterday
    (experiencing a max drawdown of ~70% along the way), Microsoft stock would be worth over $1.2mm.
    Did I purchase MSFT - of course not!
    MSFT Statistics
    I recall when Steve Jobs returned to Apple as interim CEO in late 1997.
    Apple's stock price was very low at the time and Jobs brought a lot of energy to the struggling company.
    Around this time, I thought Apple might be a good investment opportunity.
    If someone invested $10k in AAPL on 01/02/1998 and held through yesterday
    (experiencing a max drawdown of ~82% along the way), Apple stock would be worth ~$16mm!
    Did I purchase AAPL - of course not!
    AAPL Statistics
    Oh, and I've lived within 15 miles of Amazon's main corporate headquarters over the past 30+ years.
    There were many articles about Amazon published in local newspapers during the 90s.
    The company's sales took off like a rocket but profits were elusive during those times.
    I believed the stock was consistently overvalued.
    Did I purchase AMZN - of course not!
    I now regret conducting this exercise as it has triggered a major bout of depression!
  • Everyone’s thoughts on MCTOX/MCTDX?
    @Carefree It would be interesting to hear how you happened on this one and what you like about it. Suspect there’s a story there or maybe a personal situation that lends itself to this fund.
    MCTOX
    1.92% ER
    About 40/40 equity / fixed income
    10-20% “other” and a little cash
    Pretty much a “go anywhere” mandate
    They can short securities, but don’t currently seem to be shorting to a significant degree.
    Heavy investment in real estate and energy (MLPs?)
    Low asset base - only around $50 mil AUM
    Turnover 1,229% These guys are “wheeling and dealing.”
    I don’t worship at the alter of M*, but do look at what they say. In this case M* gives the fund a Negative rating. They don’t hand a lot of those out. They could be proven wrong as the fund is so new it’s hard to tell. That said, I don’t think I’d buy a fund with their negative rating. They’re generally correct on that score.
    There’s not much they like, but in particular M* faults the “excessive” fees and lack of investment experience by the managers, Following is a brief excerpt from Morningstar::
    ”Peter Montalbano brings three years of listed portfolio management experience. The team is small and inadequately equipped, with only one other listed manager supporting it. Together, the two average three years of listed portfolio management experience “
  • Everyone’s thoughts on MCTOX/MCTDX?
    New fund that has been around a couple years and wanted to get some feedback.
  • Reality check
    Twice I’ve asked absolute strangers met while traveling for investment tips. More of a conversation piece than serious talk. The first was while relaxing at a beach in the Florida Keys sometime in the early 2,000s. The fella recommended gold. Had been in a bear market. But had a great run later that year. Miners were up 30+% for the year. The second came from a young fella riding a hotel shuttle bus to the airport in Charlotte NC 3 years ago. He recommended 1 stock - NVIDA. Being of the “brilliant” variety, I completely ignored both suggestions. :) Have to wonder how much NVIDA is up since May ‘21?
  • Current CDs are Compelling
    IMO, the most compelling CP CD rates are at 5 years. This is a moment in time that will pass far quicker than many here think. Not sure what is compelling about 1-12 mo rates when Prime MMkt funds are paying just about the same and provide full flexibility for that bucket.
    Everyone has their own personal criteria for how they use brokerage CDs. I personally do not want to tie up my money for 5 years at my age, but others may be interested in doing that. Regarding MM funds, I do maintain a fair amount for liquidity reasons, but I have already started to see some decline in MM rates over the past couple of months, and I do not expect those rates to stay the same, or increase in the future.
    But to be fair, what is compelling for me, would not necessarily be compelling for others, such as you.
  • Stashing cash, Summer 2024
    @AndyJ : It's been a few years, but I can remember being dam happy to get three %. That was for 2 year CD. I started reaching out a few months early , but such is the life of an investor. Interesting times await us ! Rolling some early, rolling some late
  • Fido first impressions (vs Schwab)
    I also concur with @rforno 's observations, at least the first few. (I don't invest directly with foreign equities or do realtime trading.)
    Several years ago when I had accounts at both brokerages I compared bond prices and came to the same conclusion that Fidelity was slightly better. Curiously, the full service broker I used for munis was finding bonds for me at prices that essentially matched Fidelity's.
    Regarding Fidelity cash management - it will shortly be adding SPAXX (current SEC yield is 4.97%) as a core account option to its CMA account. Currently you're limited to a bank sweep paying 2.69% APR (2.72% APY).
    Regarding trading equities and ETFs: Schwab receives payment for order flow. Fidelity does not. (It does receive PFOF on options.) You can search for newer figures, but in 2021 "Order flow revenue made up approximately ten percent of [Schwab's] total revenue."
    https://www.aboutschwab.com/story/schwab-statement-on-payment-for-order-flow
    image
    https://brokerchooser.com/education/news/data-dashboard/payment-for-order-flow
  • About the 4% rule
    I'm not sure everyone is clear on the meaning of the 4% rule. The objectives are simplicity and very high confidence that one will not run out of money within 30 years.
    Conditions will surely change -- but we don't know when or in which direction -- adjust as necessary
    Simplicity: just stay the course, KISS, come hell or high water. No adjustments necessary.
    Gives example of how a target date fund
    Simplicity: Target date funds follow glide paths. The 4% rule hews to a fixed allocation.
    How can you straight line the 4% without taking these inputs into consideration.
    Starting in 1926, a 4% (inflation adjusted) withdrawal regimen from a 50/50 portfolio has never depleted assets in under 30 years. That includes starting in years like 1929, 1973, 1981, etc. The rule already incorporates objective risk, assuming past is prologue.
    That's not to say that people are subjectively able to handle sequence of return risk. And some people may want to plan for more than 30 years, either because they expect a longer life in retirement or their end target value is not simply "better than $0". They want to leave a legacy. And stuff happens; people may not be able to keep to a 4% budget.
    ISTM the biggest risk in the 4% rule is being left with too much money. Planning for worst case without adjustments is necessarily conservative and likely to "fail" on the upside (not spending enough). But by definition any strategy that includes making adjustments is not the simplest possible.
    For those who want to limit the risk of underspending, are willing to accept some risk of having less to spend in some years than they might otherwise like, and can manage more complex strategies (or are willing to hire someone else to do that), @Observant1 cited a good discussion of a couple of such strategies.
    Finally, using cash is very likely to fail. Over the past 96 years (1928-2023 inclusive), 3 mo. T-bill real returns have averaged 0.32%. (See cell T120 here.) Take 4%/year off of that and you're losing more than 3.5% annually. Even without compounding the loss, you'll run out of money in under 30 years.
  • Todays’s a good reason why it’s dangerous to short markets …
    All I thought I did in the post you quoted was attempt to respond to the OP about our market participation level and briefly specify how. That ain't bragging in my books but YMMV.
    @stillers, you may not realize it, but you do pretty much brag in every post you make. A lot in common with your buddy, FD. Not saying your ideas aren't good ones and they are often timely, but you do often toot your own horn.
    Just in this thread alone:
    I tried earlier this year on this forum to stir others to participate
    I've promoted the fund for YEARS
    I projected (several times)
    I could list our OEFs with their YTD TRs and/or re-visit my ST trades from early this year on NVDA and GOOGL
  • Todays’s a good reason why it’s dangerous to short markets …
    FWIW, I tried earlier this year on this forum to stir others to participate in Semis and the MAG7, but with little success. Much better success elsewhere as many on another forum jumped on board the FSELX train early this year.

    "He who tooteth not his own horn, the same shall not be tooted."
    I think you got the wrong guy. It's my brother who has the PhD in English!
    Me? I nearly flunked English Lit, so sorry man, I have no idea what that means.
    But...WAG, if it attempts to suggest I'm bragging and something bad will ultimately happen to me for doing so, I'm gonna go ahead and respectfully disagree.
    FWIW, we've owned FSELX since near its inception. I've promoted the fund for YEARS and nothing real bad has happened to me (yet?) for doing so.
    As well, I projected (several times) Semis would Rock the Casbah at BOY 2024. I tried here and elsewhere to help others jump onboard both the Semis and MAG7 trains. Took a lot of abuse in doing so, especially on the MAG7 posts. But again, nothing real bad (yet?).
    All I thought I did in the post you quoted was attempt to respond to the OP about our market participation level and briefly specify how. That ain't bragging in my books but YMMV.
    If you want bragging, maybe I could list our OEFs with their YTD TRs and/or re-visit my ST trades from early this year on NVDA and GOOGL?
    But I'll never know unless you drop the old English stuff and just say what you mean.
  • Todays’s a good reason why it’s dangerous to short markets …
    @stillers I'm with you on FSELX. It was the first purchase in my wife's Roth IRA back in 1998. Bought some more two years later. Needless to say, she's happy with the 25-year tax-free growth.
    It's also my biggest holding in my Rollover IRA.
    I have some ASML in my Roth IRA.
    Sometimes it's a wild ride, but I'm patient. Aggressively so, for an octogenarian.
    When our teenage grandson became interested in investing a couple of years ago, I insisted he buy SMH first.
    David
  • Current CDs are Compelling
    IMO, the most compelling CP CD rates are at 5 years. This is a moment in time that will pass far quicker than many here think. Not sure what is compelling about 1-12 mo rates when Prime MMkt funds are paying just about the same and provide full flexibility for that bucket.
  • What allocation do you have to international equities and your favorite funds?
    Sorry being late to this discussion. Our oversea exposure is about 7-8%, with mostly actively managed funds and ETFs. In taxable account, VEA and DIVI are the only one we use and they are tax efficient.
    1. For large cap developed market, ARTKX and FMIJX are the main vehicles.
    2. Lately CCGO was added to gain exposure to the “growth” stocks in Europe as BF mentioned the “Fantastic Five”. Capital fund does a good job so far managed the downside risk than that of Vanguard Int’l growth (we moved on when Ian Anderson retired).
    3. For EM exposure, we have 2% and it is getting smaller; largely invested in Seafarer funds with Andrew Foster and his teams.
    4. The only stake on int’l small caps we have is Seafarer EM Value.
    5. We continue to seek actively managed funds and ETFs with lower ER; preferable less than 1%.
    6. Back in the 80-90’s when US currency was less dominated to other currencies, many international funds often out-performed the US counter-parts. This has changed in the last 10 years as it reflects in our lowered exposure.
    7. In our 529 plan, Vanguard Total International stock index fund is used as part of the portfolio but we have limited choice there. Preferably, the Total Stock Market index would be better.
  • About the 4% rule
    IF one wants to follow Bengen's original paper, then one should (I think) be using large cap domestic stocks and intermediate term Treasuries. (He is clear about intermediate term treasuries but says only "large cap" stocks.)
    These days, many allocation funds invest a significant fraction of their equity sleeve abroad. IMHO that's not a bad thing, but it is different. A related "problem" is that allocation funds often invest some money into small cap stocks. While this is different from Bengen's original work, it could be an improvement:
    Bill Bengen ...has increased the withdrawal rate he uses on his own retirement portfolio to 4.7%, largely because of the upside he’s gained by adding small and microcap asset classes to his portfolio, he told the Bogleheads Live podcast this week. [Dec 2022]
    https://www.fa-mag.com/news/creator-of-4--rule-says-new-withdrawal-target-is-4-7-71026.html
    That page goes on to say that these days, Bengen says that "the optimum stock allocation that allows the highest withdrawal rate over the long term is between 55% and 60% over the long term."
    That suggests that you might look at 60/40 funds, of which there are many. As to what Bengen himself is doing, rather than using his stated static allocation "he uses a third-party service that recommends changes to his asset allocation based on perceived changes in the marketplace."
    In short, consider looking at funds closer to 60/40. VBIAX (0.07% ER) is a good starting point if ER is paramount, or VSMGX (0.12% ER) to add foreign exposure.
    FWIW, here's a portfolio visualizer comparison of three 60/40 funds: AOR, VSMGX, and VBIAX. over roughly ten years (PV limitation). Starts with $10K, $400 (4%) annual withdrawal (inflation adjusted).
  • What allocation do you have to international equities and your favorite funds?
    "Isn't Intl investing really a currency play on a weaker dollar...which might be in our near future, no?"
    Foreign currency weakness / strength against the dollar affects returns but there is more to the story.
    S&P 500 companies derive a significant portion of their revenue overseas.
    However, some excellent companies are domiciled outside of America.
    I would like to own these companies.
    Foreign stocks may provide diversification during longer periods
    where S&P 500 performance is dismal (e.g., 2000 - 2009).
    Of course, diversification works both ways.
    Foreign stocks have lagged U.S. stocks for approximately 15 years.
    This is an unusually long period and U.S. / foreign stock outperformance tends to run in cycles.
  • About the 4% rule
    William Bengen published Conserving Client Portfolios During Retirement, Part III
    in the Dec. 1997 Journal of Financial Planning. His recommended range for stock allocation
    was between 50% and 75% for a 65 year-old investor.
    "Because withdrawal rates within the recommended range of stocks are essentially equal,
    they are not very useful in selecting stock allocation.
    For another view of the matter, consider Chart 10, which depicts the nominal wealth built up
    in a portfolio after 30 years, for a retiree who began withdrawing four percent the first year.
    The two stock allocations displayed, 50 percent and 75 percent, represent the extreme ends
    of the 'recommended range' for this investor at age-65 retirement."

    PDF1
    Edit/Add: Bengen published Conserving Client Portfolios During Retirement, Part IV
    in the May 2001 Journal of Financial Planning. Two alternative withdrawal strategies are explored.
    PDF2