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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • "Experts" Forecast Stock and Bond Returns: 2025 Edition
    If the below data is correct (and please advise if it is not), just an incredible performance by PRWCX today.
    PRWCX had just under 40% in Tech as of 12/31/24, and yet somehow, today, when FBALX (the allocation fund we have long owned as PRWCX's companion) shed 1.32%, PRWCX only shed 0.34%.
    Note of course that Giroux has dropped his his equity stake to under ~55% while FBALX is holding closer to their normal ranges at ~64% with ~32% in Tech.
    Bottom Line: PRWCX was slightly outperforming FBALX YTD coming into today, but that lead has now widened to ~1.67%.
    All in a year that Giroux per the above ^ chart predicts an S&P drop of 11.6%.
    Well done, David! Well done!
    -------------------------------
    And as a follow up to my prior post about port changes this year, specifically adding Value, we bought two US LCV funds late last year, OAKMX and DAGVX.
    DAGVX is UP 5.35% YTD and only shed 0.26% today.
    OAKMX (a fund we held for years long ago) is UP 6.31% YTD, with a nice 0.95% gain today!
    If you are looking for worthy domestic OEF diversifiers, you can do a lot worse than these two!
  • FDIC rescinds more than 200 job offers for examiners it needs
    Following are edited excerpts from a current Washington Post report:
    A government-wide hiring freeze has led the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. to yank job offers to more than 200 new examiners, the front-line employees who closely monitor banks to ensure they operate safely and adhere to an extensive rule book.
    The FDIC is already facing a staffing challenge, particularly with a lack of examiners, undermining its ability to reduce the risk of bank failures. A chronic shortage of examiners contributed to the failure of Signature Bank, one of three large banks to collapse in 2023, the agency has said.
    Examiners are essentially charged with making sure a bank doesn’t fail, a critical function at the roughly 6,000-employee FDIC, of which roughly 2,300 are examiners. The agency oversees about 4,500 banks around the country, most of them small. It also insures trillions of bank deposits and winds down failing banks. Its work is funded through industry assessments.
    Perhaps more significantly, the agency is already in need of additional examiners, with frequent turnover and staffing shortages contributing to major setbacks in recent years. Current and former regulators said they feared the situation could snowball if hiring cuts combine with an uptick in the departures of retirement-eligible employees.
    A review of the March 2023 failure of Signature Bank found the supervisory group overseeing large financial institutions in the FDIC’s New York office had average vacancies of about 40 percent. For the six years before Signature’s collapse, the FDIC couldn’t adequately staff the team dedicated to the bank.
  • How to Pay Next-to-Nothing in Taxes During Retirement
    Thanks. I am familiar with direct indexing, and in fact have spoken with Fidelity about it. (New rep assigned to us; I figured I'd let him go through Fidelity's various wealth management product permutations with us.)
    The Barron's piece you linked to requires a subscription to read (I read Barron's online through my library). However, here's another article that Allan Roth wrote that for ETF.com (via Yahoo), supporting what I might have also said:
    - For limited purposes (such as tax loss harvesting, minor portfolio customizations) direct indexing may provide benefits that exceed their higher cost
    - For general index investing, net long term benefits are slim to none
    On the first point, direct indexing is oriented toward mechanical tax loss harvesting. Customization is limited (you can exclude a small number of stocks from your "index"). Of note is that Fidelity offers most of its direct indexing strategies only in taxable accounts (i.e. aside from the tax loss harvesting, these vehicles are not competitive).
    https://digital.fidelity.com/prgw/digital/msw/overview/a
    Adding more flexibility comes at much higher min asset levels and with higher fees. These more flexible (active) accounts are not targeted at investors in the 0% cap gains bracket.
    More generally, Allan Roth wrote:
    About Those Taxes ...
    But is direct indexing better than ETFs? Generally they are not, in my view, at least not compared to the best ETFs.
    ...
    Typically after a few years, the tax benefit is minimal, and all that is left are fees and complexities. The 1099 tax form on my little $5,000 direct indexing experiment is 86 pages!
     https://finance.yahoo.com/news/allan-roth-direct-indexing-better-160000280.html
    I'm not one easily spooked by lengthy statements (especially when computers deal with most of this gibberish), but even I have my limits!
    Here's M*'s take, which is similar (i.e. minor positive sentiment)
    https://mp.morningstar.com/en-us/articles/blt5e360f590235f987/direct-indexing-vs-etfs-myth-busting
  • "Experts" Forecast Stock and Bond Returns: 2025 Edition
    ...
    @bee, @stillers, @WABAC, @rforno, . . .
    By how much are you reducing or have you reduced your equity allocation from the 2024 peak level?
    We did our normal year end review allocation adjustments, and made slight changes to our deck chairs (holdings). We took our stock allocation down to the bottom of our normal range, given the very good performance of the last two years, but mainly due to the uncertainties of the new administration. That cash is parked in MMkts, to eventually be plowed back in, fully expecting a 10%-20% drop at some point this year or next. The biggest changes were to reductions in MAG7 and tech exposures, and increases in Value and SCs.
    No change to our PRWCX allocation.
  • On Bubble Watch - latest memo from Howard Marks
    If I want to get an opinion, I read it from one of the best in business, David R. Giroux, the guy who runs PRWCX, T. Rowe Price Group Chief Investment Officer, + more who publishes his thoughts a couple of times annually.”
    “MFO monthly issue is also a good source for information and insight, and the site has meaningful data for investors.
    Agree with FD on both above points. However, saying a market is way overvalued and then watching it suddenly unravel are two different things. Froth can persist for a very long time - even for years. I note this because both Giroux and (even more so) the Observer have made reference to overvaluation for a considerable while.
    I have a lot of trouble deciphering exactly how FD is positioned. Maybe my fault for not following his posts carefully enough. Consider, however, that excess money flowing into the hottest sectors might be creating some reasonable values in less popular sectors. With that in mind I did ramp up risk exposure a bit the past couple weeks. Still cautious at around 40% equity and 10% in other risk assets (metals, real estate, preferreds and infrastructure). I’m overweight non-U.S. assets - a hedge of sorts should the dollar weaken.
    @Mark - Thanks. Great thread. Very timely. Marks’ expertise is in distressed debt. But his keen observations re risk / reward provide excellent perspective on the equity markets. He’s one of my favorites.
  • On Bubble Watch - latest memo from Howard Marks
    Latest from Bowly (stockcharts.com/articles/tradingplaces/2025/01/whats-the-secret-to-crushing-t-702.html).
    Quote
    "Don't bet against a secular bull market advance!" We're all trained, or brainwashed, if you will, to believe that the next major stock market top is at hand or just around the corner. It completely immobilizes us when it comes to having belief in the major advance at hand. Give us a bit of selling and we'll quickly point out the likely recession and swift stock market drop ahead. Two weeks ago, reigniting inflation was a major concern and the S&P 500 was 5% off its high. Today, we're in all-time high territory after the ACTUAL inflation data said that inflation is NOT a problem. Or we can just be blindfolded and keep tuning into the circus that is CNBC.
    Drown out the noise and all the bearish rhetoric, and instead focus on one of my favorite charts. This is a 100-year monthly chart of the S&P 500:....
    The next time you think, "is this the start of the next secular bear market?", I want you to remember one thing. There have been TWO starts to secular bear markets in my entire lifetime - the early 1970s and the turn of the century as the dot com bubble popped. That's it. Just stop trying to call the 3rd one. There have only been 14 cyclical bear markets since 1950, which means that, on average, we see only one of these lesser bear markets every 5-6 years. Since 2018, we've had 3 of them (2018, 2020, 2022). That's waaaaay more than our fair share. Let the bulls do their thing.
    If you look back above to the 100-year chart, you'll see that the S&P 500's monthly PPO is accelerating to the upside, telling us that long-term bullish momentum just keeps building. Bear markets don't begin until that monthly PPO moves into negative territory.
    Let's play a game. The only way I declare Marks a winner is if 2 things happen in 2025. The SP500 must lose more than 20% + it's down for the year.
    If we are in a bubble, it should be an easy test.
  • "Experts" Forecast Stock and Bond Returns: 2025 Edition
    Look at who are predicting 6500 - 4 of 5 largest market participating banks. That is 6.5% from here. Probably easier to make that much with reasonably comfortable bond funds.
    David Giroux’s 5300 is a 14% drop from here. So many members of this forum are invested heavily with David.
    Thanks @bee and @stillers.
    @bee, @stillers, @WABAC, @rforno, . . .
    By how much are you reducing or have you reduced your equity allocation from the 2024 peak level?
    I can't give you hard numbers, but somewhere around 75% equity/25% cash to begin with in the IRA.
    I am now down to around 42% equity, 47% bonds, and 10% short-term (per Fido's dashboard) out of which cash is about 3%. I couldn't tell you how Fido makes that determination. They do show an M* style box that says I'm 84% short. For some reason USFR doesn't fit into the style box, and isn't qualified as cash, or other, so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ .
    The current allocation has to do with the ongoing process of "simplifying" my IRA and not finding much to buy in the equity market these days.
    If there are buying opportunities in the next couple of years I wouldn't mind going to 50 to 60% equity. Who knows? Maybe Mr Market will carry me there on his back.
    The taxable is sui generis, so I won't go into it here.
  • $2500 for one hour for your time...(offer ends soon) - asset transfer bonus
    I wouldn't touch Wells with a ten foot pole, given their history, though I appreciate the kind gesture, the way @Edmond was cluing us in. Sadly, politics is ordinarily all FUBAR. But lately, it has also become threatening. I wonder how much of the Rule of Law will survive the next four years. Politics touches everything. Politics is the arena where decisions are made which affect us all. 14th Amendment, much? I have come across something that seems legitimate: "...subject to the jurisdiction thereof..." Would that include children born here to foreign diplomats, for example? I wonder if anyone might shed some light.
    Now back to Wells: No. Just, no. But thank you, Edmond.
  • On Bubble Watch - latest memo from Howard Marks
    A very quick look shows that
    VIX(SP500 SD) < 15
    MOVE(treasury SD)=87=low
    SP500 is in an uptrend.
    I don't need to check beyond that.
    My big picture = "normal" market = I'm invested at 99+% for several months now.

    but you're invested 99+% in bonds, not the SP500, and in "special" bonds that don't move the way most bond funds move, so your so-called big picture has no real relevancy, as per usual, to your own personal big picture, more or less, give or take.
    I have been saying the following over 15 years in all the sites I post.
    All my posts are generic, without any connection to what and how I invest, unless I specially discuss my system.
    The big picture is another generic comment.
    I make comments on CEFs and never owned them more than short term.
    I posted for years about retirement, LTC, when to take SS when I was younger.
    Is your view that you can only have an opinion based on what you own or do?
    So, what would I do specifically with my portfolio? I would be invested at 99% regardless if I have stocks or bonds. I have used stocks for decades.
    You can disregard all my opinions but why trash it based on no real data.
  • Buying Treasury floating rate notes at brokerages
    @BaluBalu, but due to weekly reset feature to 3m T-Bills, FRN duration is 1 week (not 2 years). Buying FRNs at auction at Schwab would be commission-free, so 15 bps in ER for USFR would be saved. The other thing is the (small) spread that is fixed at auction - I haven't been tracking those.
  • Buying Treasury floating rate notes at brokerages
    Thanks. FRNs are available on the secondary market, but I wish to buy them at auction for better pricing. In addition, there are added fees when purchased through an agent. Buying at auction does not incur transaction fees. Small investors can construct T bills ladder out to several years to meet their income needs.
  • Buying Treasury floating rate notes at brokerages
    We have been buying treasury bills through our brokerages at auction. The expected yields are posted prior to the auction dates. Sometime one may get a slightly higher yield at auction. Over the past several years, it was advantageous to buy short term T bills and getting higher yield than those from money market. Today, the yield curve has normalized from the inverted yield curve. and we wish to extend the treasury duration beyond one year.
    My question is that I do not see treasury floating rate notes (FRN) posted in auction at Fidelity and Vanguard brokerages. According to the auction schedule from TreasuryDirect is posted below, the FRN should be available at brokerages. I have no interest to buy from TreasuryDirect.
    https://home.treasury.gov/system/files/221/Tentative-Auction-Schedule.pdf
    Please advise. Thank you.
  • Morningstar’s criticism re management turnover at Maning & Napier
    ICMUX is in 1% percentile rank for 1,3 and probably 5 year. What are they getting right that Vanguard with tens of Billions in bond management gets 0% over 10 years?
    How the Largest Bond Funds Did in 2024
    https://www.morningstar.com/bonds/how-largest-bond-funds-did-2024
  • Calamos Bitcoin Structured Alt Protection ETF – January
    Calamos has been on a tear the past couple years launching new funds - probably doubling the number over that period. I’ve long held slugs of two of their more established OEFs. But am in the process of exiting one completely based on the kind of craziness I see here - and wondering how the firm will adapt to managing significantly more products over a relatively short time?
    In the case of these products … “no loss” doesn’t exactly translate into 0 loss for your portfolio over a 1-year period. (1) You are forfeiting the income the money would have earned in a CD, money market fund or T-Bill. More importantly, (2) you may be forfeiting an opportunity to invest that sum in a more productive asset if bargains become available. The combination of volatile Bitcoin here plus the apparent complex hedges used and “limited loss” / “no-loss” features bring to mind a casino or carnival contest …. But what’s new?
    If past is prologue the funds will be immensely popular and draw in large sums.
  • Preparing your Portfolio for Rate Cuts
    Surely, this has already been mentioned: with fewer, if any, rate cuts to come, ostensibly it makes sense to hold paper that matures further out. My junk carries a rolling maturity of less than 3 years. My "mainstream" I.G. WCPNX holds stuff up to 5.5 years at the moment. Even with the higher quality, the yield is quite decent.
    21st January, 2025:
    PRCPX 7.02%
    TUHYX 7.35%
    WCPNX 5.23%
    Helluva lot better results than your standard bank savings account. And the expected Orange deregulation ought to be useful. We can make money with share price appreciation, too. (Is it 2028 yet?)
  • Preparing your Portfolio for Rate Cuts
    As much as I like David Giroux, I never liked PRWCX bonds; after all, PRWCX expertise is in stocks. Their bonds are mainstream, and probably what they care about. PRWCX AUM = about 66 billion. That's a lot of money in bonds. I love much smaller bond funds./blockquote>
    I don’t know who Giroux leans on for bond picks. I do know he was way off base about 3 years ago in Barron’s when he asserted rather forcibly the Fed rate (or perhaps the 10-year) wouldn’t go much over 3% in the coming year. It did. I’ve tried unsuccessfully to pull up the edition of Barron’s. But do recall it was discussed on the board.
    T Rowe’s fixed income was making a lot of progress until MaryMiller left in ‘09 to join the Obama administration. I don’t think it has ever recovered from that loss. RPSIX tells the story.
  • On Bubble Watch - latest memo from Howard Marks
    Let me see. In 2023-4, the SP500 made over 50%.
    In the last 15 years, about 13.8% annually.
    * Valuation are high
    * The next 2 years will not be as good as the last 2 years.
    * There is a good chance the SP500 will go down 10-15% in the next 2 years.
    WOW
  • VG Login Failed
    I've been with VG for 20ish years. I've locked myself out a few times, mostly when I had the account locked down so only one computer could login. I think they key on mac address. I would clear cookies and that would for some reason lock me out. I turned that off once they went to 2FA. I've probably called VG 5 times over the 20+ years and 4 were for lock out problems I caused. Otherwise , no problems.
  • "Experts" Forecast Stock and Bond Returns: 2025 Edition
    Bondland:
    If you look at generic, typical funds, you get a lot of volatility without knowing the results because the Fed is in control.
    To make a much better risk/reward decision, you must find these unique bond funds, which we discussed here for about 2 years with less dependency on the Fed. These funds also have higher distributions, lower volatility, and usually better performance.
    This is why I never invested in high-rated bond funds; think BND, DODIX, and Treasury.
    Why would anyone be serious about predicting the future, except for cheap publicity?
  • On Bubble Watch - latest memo from Howard Marks
    BB: @FD1000, why is that you invest only (or primarily) in bond OEFs and not in bond ETFs, which presumably will give you a better opportunity to buy low and sell high than OEFs would?
    FD: because I found out I can make as much as allocation funds with min losses. Bond ETFs in most cases have simpler portfolios; mutual funds are the ones with a unique approach.
    ============
    davidrmoran, what isn't clear? To see very high risk, it must be reflected in the markets and certain indicators I follow. If it doesn't, I'm invested at 99+%. Nothing is based on predictions.
    ============
    Old_Joe: All my funds must be on an uptrend, or at least not losing. If I find a better fund than what I own, I switch. If risk is very high I'm out. It works mostly with bond funds and why I use them. I'm not about being right; it is part of what I do. It took me many years to master it
    ============
    Observant1, as usual, very limited analytical addition.