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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • "Markets have false sense of security"
    Sure, take out the engine of the world, and things will look different.
    Value has been lagging for about 15 years now.
    But one day.... :-)
    I got one word fer yooz: PLASTICS. ...Ooops, wrong movie.
    I got one word fer yooz--- in line with @rforno's remark: BREADTH.
    A healthier Market would show more breadth of profit, in addition to the crazy-nutso, irrational shot upward in the MAG-7.
    But you most often seem to want to talk past what others have to say; so, carry on.
  • Bloomberg Wealth: Josh Friedman
    "David Rubenstein talks to well-known credit investor Josh Friedman, the Co-CEO, Co-Founder,
    and Co-Chairman of Canyon Partners. After cutting his teeth in the early days of high-yield bonds
    alongside Mike Milken, Friedman has gone on to build his own $26 billion firm,
    which has been well positioned to capitalize on the explosive growth of private
    and distressed credit deals in recent years."

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fmazbha-Bvo
    Good interview with Josh Friedman.
    Some here may be familiar with River Canyon Total Return Bond Fund
    (multisector bond) managed by a Canyon Partners subsidiary.
  • Investing in 'Rule of Law' countries
    @Crash,
    I have seen their power grab. By doing so, they have drawn everyone’s attention on to themselves.
    We are here - “Let us see how they use (misuse) the power, in addition to imposing their ideology on the population”. One way or the other, the next 4 years are going to be defining for the Roberts’ court.
    I draw comfort from knowing that everyone that ever served or pandered to Trump felt Trump’s wrath at the first instance they chose not to comply to his ever increasing demands. Mike Pence is a shining example in the long, ever increasing list of those. How the Court behaves is beyond this forum’s control. But as an investing forum, what we can do is try to make money in any given situation (make lemonade!). To do so, we have to take an observational attitude.
    I called them Scotus (not SCOTUS) for a reason.
  • Barron’s Funds Quarterly (2024/Q2–July 8, 2024)
    YBB,
    Why bother buying and holding any index of small or mid caps? Tech companies go public these days as near large caps. So, very little growth potential left while in these indices. Seems like loss potential to zero and limited upside for components. The successful components graduate to SPY and the remaining unlimited potential is captured there. Seems like active is the only solution if one is itiching to buy and hold these caps.
    the median cap weight of companies that IPO (not tech specific) over the previous 20 years was around 100 million (adjusted for inflation). 2020/2021 it was 180 million. only 19% of IPO's in 20/21 were over 500 million in market cap.
  • Barron’s Funds Quarterly (2024/Q2–July 8, 2024)
    Barron’s Funds Quarterly (2024/Q2–July 8, 2024)
    https://www.barrons.com/topics/mutual-funds-quarterly
    (Performance data quoted in this Supplement are for 2024/Q2 and YTD to 6/30/24)
    Pg L2: In comparing the best mutual funds (typically, active) vs the best ETFs (typically, passive, as the active ETFs are still evolving) in categories, the former were ahead (the 1st mentioned). Beware that leading active funds don’t maintain their lead after a few years; and some of these leading active funds are also concentrated. (Picture would change if average or typical mutual funds and ETFs were considered) (By @LewisBraham at MFO)
    US Large-Caps GQEPX vs VOO, FDGRX vs QQQ
    US Small-Caps AVALX vs RWJ, HFCGX vs IJR, NEAGX vs XSMO
    Balanced/Hybrids DGIFX vs NTSX, FPURX vs OCIO (an unexciting category for ETFs)
    International GSINX vs IDMO, BISAX vs FYLD, MSMLX vs EEMS
    Bonds LCTRX vs FBND, FAGIX vs FALN (FAGIX may be conservative-allocation due to its equity)
    Pg L6: Funds with exposure to Nvidia/NVDA and/or Eli Lilly/LLY did well, especially large-cap growth – HCMGX / HCMIX, FOCPX, VPMCX / VPMAX, VIGRX / VIGAX; ETFs QQQ, IWY, VUG (some leveraged funds are mentioned also). Other fund categories that did well include India, precious metals, utilities. (By @LewisBraham at MFO)
    MORE Fund Stories (Part 2)
    FUNDS. SMALL-CAP (SC) R2000/IWM is more cyclical after the June 28 rebalancing as companies such as SMCI have moved out. The Top 5 R2000 stocks are FTAI, INSM, ANF, FN, SFM, accounting for a whopping 1.93%. The Top 5 sectors are healthcare, industrials, financials, tech, consumer cyclicals. If you own R2000/IWM, keep an eye on Fed news. (Better, own SP SC 600 IJR, SPSM)
    SCs are going through a period of profit slump. This notwithstanding that 40% of R2000/IWM are unprofitable. A simple solution is to use better SC index SP SC 600 (IJR, SPSM), or SC-quality DFAS (active).
    INTERVIEW/Q&A. FUNDS. David BARON, BFGFX / BFGIX. He likes large positions in founder-led growth companies that are trading at discount from firm’s intrinsic value estimates, for example, TSLA, SpaceX (private), BIRK, ONON, SPOT, SHOP, H, FIGS, etc. His goal is to double the money in 4-5 years. He thinks that sideline money can support this rally; his upside now is 20-30%, downside 10-15%. Ron BARON (81) founded Baron Capital and now sons David (44) and Michael also work for the firm. Both are involved with multiple funds.
    RETIREMENT. Don’t overstay in “cash” when rates start dropping. Gradually increase maturity – T-Notes, CDs, short/intermediate-term bond funds. Consider buffer funds such as MAXJ – it holds IVV with option collars.
    LINK
  • Starting Yields Are Predictive of Bond TR...

    That's what I was thinking
    Next week, rates may go up, and the explanation will not look great. These articles explaining stuff can be generated by AI. Over the years, I have seen a reversal in explanations based on the new markets. I stopped listening to these articles many years ago.
    This is why I follow prices, charts, and trends that tell me in real time a lot more.
    Read (this).
  • the July / post-Morningstar issue of MFO is live
    "Artisan Partners used to have an Artisan International Small Cap Fund for several years in which it was closed (I believe it was opened in 2001)."
    I owned this fund years ago.
  • the July / post-Morningstar issue of MFO is live
    Artisan Partners used to have an Artisan International Small Cap Fund for several years in which it was closed (I believe it was opened in 2001). It was later renamed to the Artisan International Small-Mid Fund in 2018. Originally, Mark Yockey used to be one of the co-managers of the International Small Cap Fund.
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/935015/000119312518294501/d598864d485apos.htm
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/935015/000119312518021833/d513085d485bpos.htm
  • Do you hold gold mutual funds in your portfolio?
    Do you hold gold mutual funds in your portfolio?
    Not currently. At one we time owned PRPFX. We also previously traded GLD and GDX. There are just so many more reliable and less volatile ways to make money.
    EDIT: We owned them back when we traded more. We currently (and likely from here on out) only like to own funds that outperform the S&P over LONG periods. GLD, GDX, SDLV and/or PRPFX do not. Over the past 10 years, it ain't even close. If you want diversifiers and/or intend to trade them, have at it. Otherwise, be prepared for their LT underperformance.
  • the July / post-Morningstar issue of MFO is live
    Just in passing, we should note that the Artisan International Explorer strategy existed before the fund launched. The strategy initiated in November, 2020. The fund launched in May, 2022. The strategy, as a whole, has over $350 million in assets.
    Mr Zhou was an analyst under Mr Samra for 7 years before leaving to become a portfolio manager for Matthews. He returned to Artisan in 2020 but, I would guess, he returned bearing a non-compete agreement. And so he was able to run private but not public money.
    Since inception, the strategy has returned about 13.7% annually while it's benchmark index has returned just under 8%. It has outperformed in both up and down years with an active share of 99.3%.
    I've spoken with Mr Zhou twice. The first time was in person and I was deeply impressed. The second time was a weird video call with him and his co-manager in a conference room with a robo camera. The danged camera kept pivoting and refocusing. I think it was ceiling mounted. It did not engender a good conversation. Perhaps I should try again.
  • Do you hold gold mutual funds in your portfolio?
    If so, what is your rationale, and what has your experience been?
    I have some limited indirect exposure. But I do not hold any gold / precious metals funds or stocks at this time..
    My experience: Gold / PC miners are explosive (no pun intended). There is a string of 5 consecutive years (2011-2015) where most gold / precious metals mining funds lost money every year, losing about 90% of value over those 5 years. Breathtaking. But gold is prone to sharp “up” years as well. A mining fund can gain 50% + in a good year.
    Performance / Yahoo / Click the “show more” tab to pull up longer term performance for both OPGSX and the broader fund category.
    I won’t touch the miners at my age. They are more volatile than the metal. (Albeit - those in the know say the miners are currently undervalued relative to the metal.) Like @Derf I own PRPFX. One of my CEFs has a bit of exposure to the miners. When I feel like gambling I buy a little GLTR. It combines gold bullion with some silver and platinum using derivatives. Don’t feel like gambling right now. Prices look rich to me.
    Rationale for owning / not owning? When rising sharply gold is cited as a hedge against inflation and a “safe haven” during times of war or social upheaval. Also as a way of diversifying. When falling, critics say it hasn’t done nearly as well as equities longer term, does’t generate any income, can be difficult to trade (very narrow market) and is expensive to store.
  • Do you hold gold mutual funds in your portfolio?
    We haven't held any gold/metals related since 1979 - early 1980's. The below charts are gold miners, gold and SPY for a reference.
    GDX vs GLD vs SPY chart 2006 to present
    Chart August 2008 - August 2010, 2 years during 2008 market melt
    Chart COVID period, January 2020 - January 2022
    Chart Ukraine invasion, January, 2022 - July, 2024
    Chart YTD
    NOTE: a fellow I worked with for 30 years was/is a guns and gold kinda person.
    He became so freaked out with the market melt in 2008, that he cashed out a portion of his T-IRA to purchase physical gold at a local coin dealer store. That wasn't a good plan.
  • Fido first impressions (vs Schwab)
    I never had a problem with Schwab MM and I'm a trader. I always trade funds/MM on the same date, just make it a habit. MM is just another fund for me. I have had both Fidelity and Schwab for over 20 years.
  • Savita Subramanian: large cap value is the place to be for the next five years
    Studies have indicated exploiting the momentum factor can generate alpha.
    Skilled traders who use momentum may be able to harvest some of this alpha.
    Numerous studies also indicate active trading often leads to poor performance.
    I contend the vast majority of individual investors should create a sensible investment
    plan and then strive to minimize trading activity.
    I agree with the above and what I have been posting for many years.
    On the other hand, I also posted that most investors should use up to 5-7 funds and rarely trade.
    What I have seen on several sites for over 15 years is the worst of both. Too many funds and too many trades without any consistency, and many times trading at the worst time.
    Remember, create a system, test and retest, make changes until it is worth it, and stick to it. Trading is like swimming; practice makes you better, but trading randomly doesn't make sense.
    Hint: valuation and low fund expense ratio should not lead your trading and why there are investors who have been holding Value and EM in the last 15 years.
  • the July / post-Morningstar issue of MFO is live
    @sma3: ARDBX is predominantly small and micro cap. It holds only 22 positions representing 60% of AUM and still has a lot of cash, despite trading for more than 2 years. Quite a different animal compared to the Artisan LC international and global funds. The managers apparently spent a long time after their hiring date to prepare their new fund for business. One hopes that patience will be rewarded.
  • Investing in 'Rule of Law' countries
    @crash
    i worked at the VA for 8 years. The most frustrating experience in my life, based on quality of care. But I got paid. In private practice I would gladly have taken care of veterans ( and Title 19) if they had a system set up to pay me. The VA never did. Title 19 even in CT offered us 20% of our usual fee and then couldn't understand why we would not accept their patients with open arms.
    Unfortunately there is enough blame for everybody. The bureaucracy paints all doctors as money grubbing creeps so wont pay them. The private sector is willing to abandon their principles if there is cash involved.
    a number of NE states have reduced the Veteran homeless population to very low numbers. It can be done if you are willing to spend the money.
  • New Stock ETFs Offering ‘100%’ Downside Protection Are Coming
    Thanks @Devo. if we are to earn the dividends, that is another 1.4%, for a total of 12% return if we the full cap is realized at the end. I will take that.
    @equalizer,
    "Long term 100 year 1 year rolling returns shows market up about 75% of time and probably up 80% of time using last 40 years."
    Looks like you did not complete your thought or at least you did not say all of what you were thinking. Please elaborate / expand / conclude.
    Thanks.
  • New Stock ETFs Offering ‘100%’ Downside Protection Are Coming
    For MAXJ, looks like on June 28 they started fund with IVV at 547 and bought July 2025 puts at 547 and sold July 2025 calls at 608, which is about 11.1% upside minus the 0.5% fee and we get the 10.6% upside. Would have to check prices for this strategy over last 20 years to determine if 10.6% is at top of range. Suspect that during 2008 timeframe this strategy would pay out 2-3%?
    Seems like a reasonable strategy at todays prices…
    Long term 100 year 1 year rolling returns shows market up about 75% of time and probably up 80% of time using last 40 years.
    .
  • Investing in 'Rule of Law' countries
    @crash
    We lived in CT, run as a one party state for decades. Budget deficits, huge government worker ( all unionized) pension and retiree health care deficits ( over $65,000 per person with a declining population). The only thing that saved them was iron clad "Guard rails" requiring a rainy day fund and any surplus to be put into deficit. Now Unions want to remove both.
    Initially MA seemed much better with a moderate GOP Governor Baker ( who won by 33% margin in 2018) , although the dem controlled legislature is ranked as the least transparent in the US.
    Baker stepped down. Trumpites took over GOP in 2022 and their candidate lost by 30%! so the Trumpites lost 60% of the electorate in 4 years!
    Now we have a one party state. Taxes have doubled. New income tax surcharge 4% over $500,000. Mansion tax 2% on sales of over $1,000,000. People are talking about Taxachusetts again
    A one party government is bad no matter who it is
  • Savita Subramanian: large cap value is the place to be for the next five years
    @WABAC and BenWP I've added to two other performance charts for different time frames when Value could have provided some 'head fakes'.
    --- Chart line colors likely vary by device type; but my laptop, for my very good eyes show red, a lime green and blue. Also, one may hover a pointer over the graph line at any point to 'see' the name of the fund/etf.
    VUG vs VTV vs SPY (a reference choice) This chart is for 2 years and covers the full years of 2022 and 2023.
    This chart is for the beginning of the COVID period and covers the full years of 2020 and 2021.
    'Course, I'm showing these as time frames for various periods which can cause any of us who may want to make decisions in 'real time'. A tough road, for sure. Being, is this investment area really a solid 'trend' and/or rotation?
    BIAS NOTE: We've been mostly U.S. centric investors for many years and fully since the melt of 2008. This includes equity and bonds. We obtain small pieces of international exposure via U.S. fund holdings. The 'other' bias is that we've been oriented to growth. 'Course there have a few scary periods for growth investors.