I stopped listening to Gundlach years ago based on (this).
I love hearing charismatic Gunflach, but I don't trade based on his advice.
The SP500 (chart) broke thru the 50-day MA. It's pretty clear. The next one is the 100-day MA. I don't believe in MA because they are not accurate. The MACD is a better one. If you pay attention, it's meaningful when MACD goes below -50.
But, the index is only about -4.5% from the top; it's meaningless so far, after it was up about 18% in 2025.
I love bear markets, especially in bonds; after a big decline, it's the easiest time to make money.

+1.
Well, ya. Once prices go up, they never come down unless there's a Depression. I remember the teacher giving us one example: you could buy a restaurant meal for .25 cents during those very bad years. But the Markets sank, too.
They've screwed it up every which way but loose, without even trying. Just a few idiot-moves.

I think the Head Honcho drove many of them away, through the course of several years...

You guys are hardly alone... Catch22 has been remarking on this for many years now.

No. $39.64 is what I bought the stock at. But it’s worth 2-cents less now. It’s one of the last beers I’d buy or drink. Haven’t bought any in years, but if folks want to pay $39.64 for a case that’s just dandy with me. Go to it. While I added this to my “BARF” basket along with 7 other long shots, the term isn’t meant to be a reflection on the product.

Gundlach: I owned his vanilla core-plus bond fund years ago. Left with a tiny profit. I think he sounds convincing in that podcast. Having said that, always remember: there are too many variables to juggle. The best thing I've heard lately is to invest toward the probabilities and stay diversified.
*I'm into Barry Ritholtz' latest: "How Not To Invest." It's written for neophyte rookies who know nothing about nothing when it comes to investing. Almost a pap-ish Readers' Digest style. He's not wrong. But the conversational style makes the book about 3X longer than it needs to be. And there's no table of contents. The sections are all just a page and a half long, on average. The good stuff is buried under 59 different illustrations and examples. That's 59 times, over and over and over...
As for these last few days... Quoting Josh Brown from CNBC a lot of years ago: "I'm just doing my kegels and hanging on." More recently, he told a podcaster: "Just stay invested and shut the fuck up." Expressed with humorous intention.

I will give the benefit of doubt that 'Cloudflare' is keeping the network system up to speed by whatever is needed to 'exceed' anticipated traffic. This is indicated at their website. Perhaps one of their customers had an attack that moved down the line.
This reminds me of the 'old buffer overflow' or too many 'tasks' running in a 'task manager' look for a system. Much of this over the years are related to upgrades in 'systems' and older devices no longer capable of being compatible. A whole different circumstance, but of the type my old brain relates for 'failures'.

A very good near life-long friend (since college days) got me interested in investing 40+ years ago. He was far ahead of me then. So I’m ever grateful. We much more enjoy talking about fishing, travel, sports when together. We don’t dwell on investing, though it occassionally comes up in a casual manner. I know him to be a more stable individual than myself. So he might make 6 changes a year in his positioning while I probably make that many in a month. Making generous use of Fidelity’s “baskets”, I currently have 30+ holdings - my friend fewer than 10. We don’t compare numbers, but I’d guess he’s done a lot better than me with a fraction of the time & effort. :)

Ya, well. TROW has it coming. Service to clients fell into the toilet long ago.

I’d question how much fund houses / brokerages trade on service. Indirectly, yes. But my reading suggests it’s mostly about AUM and the direction of fund flows - in or out. And, I think TROW has been losing assets.

I use TROW. I rarely call. I received good service/advice last time I called about transferring an inherited IRA. I mentioned that I was going to be looking for a place to stash my 401K & pension buyout in the near future. That perked them up. I retained the woman's name. as she was very knowledgeable.
I did have a very disappointing interaction with TROW about 4 years ago. I was attempting to transfer the proceeds of a home sale (trust). The associate was helpful, but their attorneys halted the transfer, as there was an amended trust involved. All legal, and by the original trust attorney, but they were spooked. I was pissed!
I already had "Enhanced Personal Services" at that point, and was with them since 1987. I am trying not to let it become a major sticking point. If I ever need something, I may use it as leverage.
I feel that nearly anyone with a 40 year brokerage relationship, has likely got some gripes.

My few pals generally discuss health and politics way more than money. Yesterday one of two best friends who has revealed he is 60/40 admitted he only checks his portfolio when the monthly statement is issued. Had no idea about recent market conditions. Other friend is very ill and in a care facility, he told me yesterday that he will run out of money in 2.5 years but had a plan to generate “ 10-12% return from his portfolio. He watches CNBC all day. I guess my point is that, unless one is a boglehead,,, we all invest in way that is uniquely personal.

@FD100 - Have you ever mentioned “trend following” by name in any of your previous posts or recommended the best current trends to chase follow for the benefit of members who read you?
There are successful trend following funds. I have 5-6% so invested . Why anyone would put “all their eggs” in that one basket escapes me. Waiting for a Wiley Coyote moment? Trend following (managed futures) funds invest in a diverse mix of equities, bonds, currencies, commodities, metals, real estate and more. It’s doubtful that whatever you are doing is comparable to what they do.

I mentioned trends hundreds of times over the years.
Start reading at https://big-bang-investors.proboards.com/thread/3344/time-sell?page=10
stayCalm is correct about trends. I don't use most of what these funds do; it's too complicated and time-consuming.
Mine is pretty simple: only long, change funds according to trends, and sell to MM when risk is very high. Black boxes are unreliable. If I use them, it's usually shorter term, and I watch carefully.
Why would I put "all my eggs"?
This is based on my LT view that I can only have 2-5 great ideas at any moment. But I also switch quickly too when the time is right. In the last 2-3 years I traded less often and stayed in bond funds that I think can make 8+%. That also works with good timing. A fund with higher SD loses money quicker. A slower fund let me exit a bit later.
Example: I could have made more in 2024, but I stayed in HOSIX/CLOZ a lot more time.
In my world it was a perfect fund in 2024 (https://schrts.co/gnvFaMZA)
Why EGRIX and then switch to EIGMX? because after a decline, a more volatile fund would make more.

“How bad do you think it’s gonna be?”
When Michael Corleone asks Clemenza in “The Godfather” about the mob war he’s about to start, he gets the sort of reassurance that comes with experience. “These things gotta happen every five years or so, ten years. Helps to get rid of the bad blood…been ten years since the last one.”
The 'bad blood' is already in place. The question is: How much and for how long, do you want everyone to suffer ???

Have you see "The Offer" about the making of The Godfather? It was excellent!
I read most of the Puzo books, and must say that Mario Puzo is a brilliant author. The movies did not follow the books exactly. Of The Godfather (1969), The Sicilian (1984), the Last Don (1986) and Omertà (2000), only the first film was really based on the first book. The others were significantly different.

My 1-cent worth. I’ve never seen a more bifurcated equity market. There’s the hot stuff the crowd, momentum funds and algorithms keep chasing. On the other hand there’s deep value, including many small & mid cap that nobody wants at any price. Where will it all end? Haven’t a clue.
@Junkster - I agree fully with the political overtones. But there are no guarantees they’ll achieve anything other than more inflation due to excess stimulus. I can’t trade on that other then keep a tilt towards inflation. (No. I don’t mean buy gold at 3X what was worth 5 years ago.)
Added: If prospects are so good for the markets, why do the brokerages keep sliding? TROW down another 2% today.

FD claimed to follow EGRIX for years, but never used it. Or ever mentioned it. He must have changed his outlook on EGRIX.
Feb 19, 2025 at 2:25pm OutOnBond said:
"FD1000 - Have you looked at EGRIX? Looks to be on a steady rise with minor volatility."
Feb 20, 2025 at 5:34pm Administrator said:
"It's on my lists for years but I never used it.
It's a black box and unpredictable.
It uses long, short in bonds and currencies around the world.
See one year chart and watch volatility in 2024."
https://ibb.co/840dNPyP

“How bad do you think it’s gonna be?”
When Michael Corleone asks Clemenza in “The Godfather” about the mob war he’s about to start, he gets the sort of reassurance that comes with experience. “These things gotta happen every five years or so, ten years. Helps to get rid of the bad blood…been ten years since the last one.”
The 'bad blood' is already in place. The question is: How much and for how long, do you want everyone to suffer ???

EGRIX imo is much riskier than a plain vanilla bond fund due to it's strategy -- long/short, lotsa macro calls, frontier market holdings, FX risk, etc..
It has performed really well with an amazingly low SD with the falling dollar as a tailwind. But that outperformance go forward isn’t pre-ordained. I am a happy holder with a single digit position.

I don't invest based on the future, only based on what works lately.
When market conditions change, I change my funds.
In 2022, BND and many "safe" bond funds were pretty bad.
In the last 15 years, the super safe fund BND made just 2.2% annually which is a dismal performance.
I never diversified.
EGRIX did well in the last 5 years regardless of the dollar.

What is your point on EGRIX. More ancient history. As recently as this year you said on the other board it wasn’t a fund “for a conservative investor like me”.

EGRIX imo is much riskier than a plain vanilla bond fund due to it's strategy -- long/short, lotsa macro calls, frontier market holdings, FX risk, etc..
It has performed really well with an amazingly low SD with the falling dollar as a tailwind. But that outperformance go forward isn’t pre-ordained. I am a happy holder with a single digit position.

I don't invest based on the future, only based on what works lately.
When market conditions change, I change my funds.
In 2022, BND and many "safe" bond funds were pretty bad.
In the last 15 years, the super safe fund BND made just 2.2% annually which is a dismal performance.
I never diversified.
EGRIX did well in the last 5 years regardless of the dollar.

If I could find a 1X inverse gold / miners or p/m fund I’d own a small hold. Unfortunately, they are all 2X and 3X. I have followed the metal since 1977 - being in and out several times. Simply do not understand the extreme run-up the past couple years. Mining funds lost 60-70% over only 2-3 years during the metal’s last significant bear market. OTHO, Bill Fleckenstein, who recommended gold early (about 5 years ago), sees it going still higher as the “retail crowd” warms up to it.
From BRAVE’s AI: “2015 was another extremely difficult year, marking the end of a prolonged bear market that began after 2011. By late 2015, the HUI gold miners index had plummeted 85% from its peak.”
Watching NLSAX, favorably mentioned this month on Charles Lynn Bolin’s “low ulcer” list, should valuations improve.

EGRIX imo is a better bond alt than QDISX. But certainly still a lot riskier than a straight bond fund. One has to have very high faith in manager capabilities.

Where is the risk?
In the last 1-3-5 years EGRIX did better than "safe" funds such as DODIX,BND.
See chart
https://schrts.co/zdsBuVQk

What I found depressing about the Times article is the fact that the previous administration, using conventional means, instituted a requirement for the wealthy that the current administration, using crooked means, can ignore be telling the IRS not to enforce it. This is crony capitalism at the highest levels of government. Not the I'm the first to point out that the rule of law means nothing for a regime that places the wealth of the few to subvert the will of the rest of us. I shudder to think of what it will take to root out the rot now firmly in place in many organs of government and what it will take to reverse Trump policies just to get back to the status quo ante. I fear that much of the valuable institutional memory has already been side-lined by dismissals, layoffs, and forced retirements. It will be hard to get the victims of those reduction-in-force policies to come back to work once this president is gone.

Every word of that is ringing in my ears....
...As I have asserted here before a few times already: I would bet it will take some big number of Orange-style and MAGA deaths before the US gov't is back to a place where there is any semblance of just the mere prospect of normalcy. 30 years? 40 years? Not to mention that there is an entire brainwashed Repugnant elected crew on The Hill which is hell-bent on perpetuating The Lie.
Even re: BOTH of the Parties which have locked-up Washington between them, how many in the House and Senate are 200+ years old? Too damn many. And how many are way-too-comfortably-wealthy? WAY TOO MANY. So, all of THAT needs to be changed, too.
But the American electorate is too stoopid. In the case of the Repugnants, they are both too stoopid AND ethically spineless.