Savita Subramanian: large cap value is the place to be for the next five years Subramanian is head of US equity and quantitative strategy at Bank of America, and was the kickoff speaker for the conference. She made three sorts of arguments:
1. most market forecast models are completely useless. BoA has reviewed their performance and they have an R-squared of zero. That is, there is zero predictive validity in them. (Which models, exactly? For what time frames? Doesn't say, presumably because they would only slow things down.)
In addition, most strategists are contrarian indicators; the more they are enthused, the worse the market's forward returns. BoA has a timing model based on that: they survey strategies for their recommended equity exposure in a balanced portfolio. BoA has discovered that the best buy signal is when the average recommendation drops below 51.3% and the best sell signal is when it hits 58%. They survey 20 strategists monthly (I believe) and the current rec is about 55%, which she describes as providing a lack of guidance.
(What, you ask, is the genesis of this model? She seems not to know where it came from; she inherited it from her predecessor, Rich Bernstein, and suspects that he inherited it from his predecessor. What is that R-squared of BoA's model? No hint. And since she had a schedule conflict and had to leave right after her talk rather than do the promising Q&A with journalists.)
2. the market is in a good place just now. Traditional valuation metrics are all wrong since they're premised on an economy that no longer exists. Dynamic industries are asset-light, so book value is largely meaningless. Subscriptions have replaced sales. Inflation at 2-4% is positive for equities. Inflows are strong. The equity risk premium is historically low. US companies have been replacing people with AI which is good because "people are risky, processes are predictable." (Climate change doesn't exist, elections don't matter, we're on a permanently high plateau for ... sorry, that's an editorial aside.)
3. large cap value is the coming sweet spot. Pensions and hedge fund have become dramatically underweight publicly traded equities in favor of private equity, but the attraction of the latter is fading as correlations rise and gains are arbitraged away. In particular, she projects that boomers will need income, that fixed-income isn't attractive (we recently reached, she reports, a 5,000 year low in interest rates), and so there will be a migration to equity-income strategies centered on dividend-paying stocks. Prior to 2013, 50% of equity returns came from dividends (a troubled statement depending on the time-frame since, as she notes above, the economy has changed) and that might recur. Meta and Alphabet are both looking to initiate dividends, a sign of big tech growth stocks are maturing into more traditional corporations. Some IPOs have even played with the idea of incorporating a dividend into their initial offering (my head hurts). Sectors like energy (companies that are now rewarding their executives for decarbonizing and cash return rather than on meeting production targets), tech and financials stand to benefit.
Vanguard PRIMECAP Reopens interesting to note that vhcax, the 3rd primecap vanguard fund w/admiral fees, has not reopened.
its largest holding, lilly @$2.5b in value, is bigger than the next 4 combined.
if i had to guess one secret sauce for primecap and giroux, its avoiding sentiment plays from the onset but letting business winners run.
If you look at the top 10 or 20 holdings, they were first purchased 20
years ago. And per M*, the turnover is 6%.
Capital Group’s Gitlin (Interview) // How do their offerings compare to others? What do the seasoned investors on this board think of capital groups ETF’s as a whole? But In particular, CGUS, CGDV, CGGR?
I’ve never invested in Capital Group funds until they entered the ETF market. I currently hold double-digits in CGUS and CGDV. I’ve been pleased with their performance so far, although they have a little more overlap (per etfrc.com).
I like to invest in active funds to compliment the passive funds I own. FYI : I only hold a handful of funds.
There seems to be enough uniqueness because they often zig/zag somewhat.
Any comments or thoughts are greatly appreciated! Thx. Matt
AF equity products have largely become closet index funds. That said these ETF's have less than 10billion in assets so don't necessarily have the bloat. I assumed originally that these were largely ETF versions of their larger flagships but as of now they are slightly different.
for me they are different enough to pay attention to but I also feel like eventually they'll become more aligned with their indexes than they should.
CGGR is the only one i've tracked and as of now it is underperforming its index but 2 months ago it was beating it and 2
years is really not much of a record to make a decision on.
I think the real value for these are people who invest outside of retirement accounts. regardless of performance the tax implications of AF funds are pretty big. the ETF wrapper allows you to stay in AF but not have the huge tax hits year in and year out.
Vanguard Website Jeff Demaso commented on the Tuesday morning Vanguard outage.
"Judging by my inbox and Downdetector, Vanguard’s website and app stopped functioning on Tuesday morning.""We all make mistakes, but Vanguard’s technology and service snafus have become the firm’s Achilles heel. What’s remarkable is that Vanguard continues to ignore their failings, making statements about their improvements like this:
In recent years, Vanguard has intentionally and strategically invested in modernizing our digital pathways – including our website and the Vanguard mobile app – as part of our commitment to providing a world-class experience for our clients. We encourage our investors to web register and utilize Vanguard digital channels for an efficient, effective, and secure client experience.""Salim Ramji will become Vanguard’s CEO on July 8. I hope he has “fix our technology and service” at the top of his to-do list."https://www.independentvanguardadviser.com/a-glimpse-of-the-next-cycle
Can someone explain PYLD’s apparent negative 90% cash position? What am I missing? BINC looks a lot better on Blackrock’s website than at M*. Geeeeze.
It has no cash (actually a few percent negative) compared to M*’s reported 43%!
And very little sub investment grade paper - roughly 25% (but almost all BB). You couldn’t tell that from M *. Looks like a currently moderate duration of 3-5
years.
Interestingly, Rieder has gone into international holdings with about 30% (+ - ) listed as non-US.
I don’t worry much about historical performance with bond funds. Much more interested in what they hold. We’ve been through some very abnormal times.
Derivatives are fine. (thanks
@msf) They are used near exclusively by commodity funds (Who wants a boat-load of hogs?) But the ice below me feels a little thicker when they’re not being employed to large extent. I’ve spent hours exploring the world of bond funds, as might appear. I did come across mention that certain tactics don’t work as well for the manager in an ETF as they do with an OEF. But don’t remember the exact context.
Thanks all. Very helpful.