When we were in our accumulation phase we held ABALX among other American Funds (Capitol Group) for many years. It did well for our needs. As a general rule I found American Funds to have better equity performance than bond performance, but ABALX was pretty good.

The December 2024 issue of the Mutual Fund Observer has been posted.
Dear friends,
Welcome to the Remembrance Day / Start of Winter / Invite a Viking to Christmas / December issue of Mutual Fund Observer https://mutualfundobserver.us2.list-manage.com/track/click?u=a779898c08f5883a95650fcbf&id=3ed3901189&e=c40301c47d.
Financial markets are, in a technical sense, structurally chaotic. Beyond that structural chaos, there’s a prospect of political chaos that plays out over the weeks and months ahead. Chaos is not good for your portfolios or your sanity. Lynn Bolin and I, separately but with knowledge of what each was doing, have offered advice on crafting “a chaos-protected portfolio” (Lynn) and “a chaos-resistant portfolio” (me). Our recs are different but, we think, complementary.
Lynn also offers up advice for investing in 2025. He identifies key challenges for investors in the coming years:
1. High stock valuations and interest rates
2. Slow economic growth
3. Risk of another secular bear market
4. Sticky inflation
5. Increasing national debt and budget deficits
His analysis is somewhat at odds with the good folks at Kiplinger’s, who start with the assumption of six or seven interest rate cuts. Lynn’s prudent recs: anticipate lower long-term returns, trust active investment management during potential secular bear markets, and maybe ease back on equities if you’re of a certain age.
John Rekenthaler retired from Morningstar in mid-November. He and the other founders of Morningstar have helped guide a nearly unimaginable evolution of the power of individual investors, from a world where fund companies did not even deign to disclose the names of the people managing their funds to one where, for better and worse, investors have nearly unlimited choice and unlimited information. I wrote a short reflection on JR’s career and contributions.
Our colleague Charles offers useful new capabilities at MFO Premium (for the inflation-resistant price of $120, virtually unchanged in its decade of operation).
The Shadow keeps it real and keeps us grounded by reviewing the industry’s news, innovations, and twists in “Briefly Noted.”
And we haven’t forgotten fans of the long-scroll version (hi, Roger!): it’s here https://mutualfundobserver.us2.list-manage.com/track/click?u=a779898c08f5883a95650fcbf&id=8dedbfe7a2&e=c40301c47d!
(This post was copied from a recently received email.)

The article is full of "mights" and "coulds". Everything is conditional in the article.
Further 1100 tons is 32,000 ounces. Extended by $2,500 (roughly the current price), that is $88 billion. -- And those 32,000 oz are not coming to market tomorrow, but over many, many years... once the mine is opened.
Govts are running multi-trillion deficits every year.
All of the "maybe ounces" altogether are about 0.5% of the cumulative gold mined in history -- most of which is still sitting in vaults around the world.
The "maybe mine" in China is a drop in the ocean of govt debt.

NOTE:

My intention, at this time; is to present the data for the selected bond sectors, as listed; through the end of the year (2024). This 'end date' will take us through the U.S. elections period, pending actions/legislation dependent upon the election results, pending Federal Reserve actions and market movers trying to 'guess' future directions of the U.S. economy. As important during this period, are any number of global circumstances that may take a path that is not expected; and/or 'new' circumstances. In the 'cooking pot' we currently have the big ingredients of the middle east and also, how much damage Ukraine may inflict upon Russia and the response.

FIRST: NOTHING TO ADD/ALTER regarding 'Never-Never Land'. The pre-DC world shift of January, 2025 remains 'interesting' at this time! We're in a 'Never-Never Land' (events you never imagined) of potential large impacts upon various economic functions emanating from a central government in the coming months and years. What comes next for the investing world of bonds is not yet known or fully understood, except for those have a better guessing system than I. I can only watch and listen a little bit and let the numbers try to bring forth meaningful directions.
W/E December 6 , 2024..... Bond NAV's DECENT gains
--- 'Course, all the bond sectors in the list find their reasons for price movements, and we find 'most bond sectors 'HAD DECENT GAINS ' for this week's pricing. Many bond sectors were very positive each day of the week. All durations swapped pricing placing on various days of the week. So, depending on where you're 'hanging' your bond market monies, the pricing this week, was erratic . The MINT etf, to the best of my recall, has maintained a positive price for the year, each and every week; and this remains for this week.
A few numbers for your viewing pleasure.
NEXT:
*** UST yields chart, 6 month - 30 year. This chart is active and will display a 6 month time frame going forward to a future date. Place/hover the mouse pointer anywhere on a line to display the date and yield for that date. The percent to the right side is the percentage change in the yield from the chart beginning date for a particular item. You may also 'right click' on the 126 days at the chart bottom to change a 'time frame' from a drop down menu. Hopefully, the line graph also lets you view the 'yield curve' in a different fashion, for the longer duration issues, at this time. Save the page to your own device for future reference. NOTE: take a peek at the right side of this graph to find the yield swings of the past week, and for the current yields for the last business day.
For the WEEK/YTD, NAV price changes, December 2 - December 6, 2024
***** This week (Friday), FZDXX, MM yield continues to move with Fed funds/repo/SOFR rates; and ended the week at 4.44% yield (Down .01 for the week). Fidelity's MM's continue to maintain decent yields, as is presumed with other vendors similar MM's. Theoretically, a new yield bottom is in place, until the next FED action. SO, one is still obtaining a decent MM yield. MOST MM's found a +/- of .01% basis in yield for the week. MM's yields were basically FLAT for change, more or less, for the week.................
--- AGG = +.45% / +3.51% (I-Shares Core bond), a benchmark, (AAA-BBB holdings)
--- MINT = +.12% / +5.61% (PIMCO Enhanced short maturity, AAA-BBB rated)
--- SHY = +.21% / +3.88 % (UST 1-3 yr bills)
--- IEI = +.30% / +2.95% (UST 3-7 yr notes/bonds)
--- IEF = +.39% / +2.06% (UST 7-10 yr bonds)
--- TIP = +.24% / +3.67% (UST Tips, 3-10 yrs duration, some 20+ yr duration)
--- VTIP = +.16% / +5.02% (Vanguard Short-Term Infl-Prot Secs ETF)
--- STPZ = +.18% / +4.79% (UST, short duration TIPs bonds, PIMCO)
--- LTPZ = +.33% / +1.17% (UST, long duration TIPs bonds, PIMCO)
--- TLT = +.80% / -1.02% (I Shares 20+ Yr UST Bond
--- EDV = +1.20% / -3.25% (UST Vanguard extended duration bonds)
--- ZROZ = +1.56% / -5.13% (UST., AAA, long duration zero coupon bonds, PIMCO
--- TBT = -1.60% / +9.7% (ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (about 23 holdings)
--- TMF = +2.37% / -19.35% (Direxion Daily 20+ Yr Trsy Bull 3X ETF (about a 2x version of EDV etf)
*** Additional important bond sectors, for reference:
--- BAGIX = +.41% / +4.05% Baird Aggregate Bond Fund (active managed, plain vanilla, high quality bond fund)
--- USFR = +.08% / +5.08% (WisdomTree Floating Rate Treasury)
--- LQD = +.48% / +4.13% (I Shares IG, corp. bonds)
--- MBB = +.35% / +3.49% (I-Shares Mortgage Backed Bonds)
--- BKLN = +.14% / +7.94% (Invesco Senior Loan, Corp. rated BB & lower)
--- HYG = +.28% / +9.11 % (I Shares High Yield bonds, proxy ETF)
--- HYD = +.15%/+6.27% (VanEck HY Muni)
--- MUB = +.27% /+2.91% (I Shares, National Muni Bond)
--- EMB = +.75%/+8.75% (I Shares, USD, Emerging Markets Bond)
--- CWB = +.08% / +15.15% (SPDR Bloomberg Convertible Securities)
--- PFF = -.71% / +10.41% (I Shares, Preferred & Income Securities)
--- FZDXX = 4.44% yield (7 day), Fidelity Premium MM fund
*** FZDXX yield was .11%, April,2022. (For reference to current date)
Comments and corrections, please.
Remain curious,
Catch

Hi @Crash. Something maybe out-of-the-box for you, but if you wanted an equity type fund with less volatility than a traditional stock fund, you might consider PHEFX. I definitely like this type of way to put equities to my portfolio having a smoother ride than a traditional equity fund. I've held JHQAX for many years and added PHEFX when it became available last year to go along side it. I've been adding to it since.
Just another idea to reduce equity fluctuations but stay in the equity game.
edit-add: I also own a lot of PRCFX, so I have nothing against that choice. Much more conservative though.

No one can say for certain if we'll have inflation increases going forward...assumptions are being made...just the same ERC filings due to end in 2025, tuition loan forgiveness will end, energy costs likely to decrease, wasteful govt spending reduced, quite possible (hopefully) peace dividend to come under new govt etc etc...who knows, sure could go the other way?
what is wrong with staying short duration in Tbills/notes US2yr or less? still getting over 4%, no state taxes...think back a couple years ago and what dozen years before that...2% looked good, no?
Maybe stay with rolling US3M, US6M, US12MTbills out to a year with 90% of your monies and take the other 10-15% and go with GRNY, Tom Lee's new ETF...you can still be real conservative...

06 december, 2024.

oksana aranov. economy is chugging along. rate cuts will just set the table for more inflation. november jobs report shows a healthy labor market, and it's been this way for months, apart from the hurricane month in october, of course. the fed doesn't even know where its neutral rate is.
cleveland fed chair hammack says we're at or near the time when rate cuts need to be slowed or stopped.
gargi chaudhuri. no reason to own bonds further out in duration than 5-7 years. own the belly.
investment grade vs. junk are at historic tights.
really? my core-plus fund offers me yield of 5.17%. My junk spews at me monthly with 7.33%. more than two percent better. throw enough benjamins in there and the difference is meaningful.

WSJ if you don't pay full price. Apart from the editorial pages, their news is pretty much down-the-center ... which is surprising given it's owned by Murdoch.
Bloomberg's website is okay. BusinessWeek has gone to $$#%$% over the years imho.
The FT is great if you want an international/EU view of things. They have a pretty deep reporting bench, too.
And I hate to say it but every now and then I find some useful nuggets at SeekingAlpha. The reader comments are often very insightful -- sometimes moreso than the articles, if I'm honest.

Well, my wife is 83, and CDs are a good place for her as they are simple and straightforward and will continue to come due after I'm not here to juggle things. So a CD ladder out a few more years for her seems reasonable.

Thank you again, @Observant1.
Everyone here should be watching these presentations; and saving them for further/future reference.
Especially important for this #39 report, IMHO; is Lesson #2 starting at the 5 minute mark, titled 'Price Targets'. A lot of time over the years and currently is spent regarding who/what to follow and/or read regarding financial thinking. The point of Lesson #2 is that those (the large, old money centers), those that one should expect to understand markets well, have problems like other 'humans', in spite of overwhelming data and 'schooling'. Somewhere here (MFO) is a write (2010 - 2012?) about about Morgan Stanley or Goldman fully getting things wrong about interest rates directions. A serious mistake.
One must be their own best student and attempt to blend whatever/whomever you choose to follow to help form one's thinking. No easy task.
A suitable topic area, for a future post.

Good point, Old Joe, that's why I am putting some of the proceeds of any maturing CDs into bond OEFs like CBLDX, DHEAX, ICMUX and RCTIX.
I am also putting money into two low risk market neutral funds like QQMNX (SD=7.2%) and JMNAX (SD=4.4%), and HELO, a hedged equity fund.
So far, so good. If not, I'll just pull the trigger. At my age, I prefer to err on the side of caution.
But, good luck.

Hi Fred, looks like you are back to using the same kind of bond oefs that you were using before the most recent market tumble. I am not there yet, but I do have a lot of good feelings about lower risk bond oefs like RPHIX, CBLDX, and DHEAX. I maintain a watchlist of very conservative/low risk bond oefs, but I am expecting those funds to become more volatile, than the past couple of years. But as I have said in the past, I am not a good predictor of the future, and will likely stay more conservative and risk averse, than most posters/investors on this forum

@dtconroe- good to hear from you again. We are in exactly the same situation as you describe. I recently bought a long-term Deutsche Bank bond at 5.75%, callable in two years (that MikeM found) from Schwab. However as msf mentions hoping for a call in two years may have been a bad move, since it seems likely that inflation may increase substantially under the new, improved political franchise. If that happens, we may be stuck with that bond for much longer than desirable.

I am not good at trying to predict the market, even for the near future. I expect some political turmoil in the near future, but I am not good at predicting politics either. CDs have been good for both my financial objectives, as well as my mental health, for a few years now. At my age, winning investing trophies is not important to me. My financial objectives are much more "modest"--just make enough TR to preserve principal, with as little stress as possible. I am not opposed to callable CDs, or even very low risk bond oefs like RPHIX, but not really interested in more risky investments than that. Other investors can chart the path that fits their financial objectives, and I realize that I am probably too conservative/risk averse, for most other investors/posters on this forum.

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- Best for Staying Sober (not succumbing to herd psychology) - “The Daily Rap” / Veteran investor Bill Fleckenstein writes a daily column looking at the day’s action. Once or twice a week there’s some deeper insights to be had. More often just a quick summary you can find anywhere. If it it was a Dull (“nothing happened”) Day Bill will tell you that. There’s a Q&A section I sometimes enjoy more than Bill’s opines. If having pro-Trump / anti-liberal messaging occasionally inserted into the discussions bothers you, you won’t like the site. If you can read thru that stuff, there’s a lot to be learned. Price is something north of $100 yearly.
- Most Enjoyable & Insightful Listening - “The Meb Faber Show” - I have access to over 50 45-minute long interviews dating back a couple years. Delightful conversations with many financial participants including fund managers. You can dig up a few on UTube. But to get the entire pack you might need to use a podcast service.
d

I would say a solid money center bank callable bonds, callable Agency bonds, PAAA, and RPHIX are all good choices. Instead of either / or, you can split between them.

I owned very low risk bond oefs for many years. RPHIX was a long term holding, as my most dependable bond oef for my "cash alternative" holdings. I am going to take a second look at callable CDs.

@dtconroe- good to hear from you again. We are in exactly the same situation as you describe. I recently bought a long-term Deutsche Bank bond at 5.75%, callable in two years (that MikeM found) from Schwab. However as msf mentions hoping for a call in two years may have been a bad move, since it seems likely that inflation may increase substantially under the new, improved political franchise. If that happens, we may be stuck with that bond for much longer than desirable.

MRFOX had a very nice November 2024, gaining +6.83%. YTD MRFOX is up 21%, beating PRWCX by nearly 6.7%.
Over the past 3 years, MRFOX beats PRWCX by over +9% annually, and by +4.4% over the 5 years ended 11-30-2024.
If anything, it's PRWCX that has slid a bit.

If you're willing to hold cash-ish (CDs in this case) for a couple of years, then why not take a closer look at RPHIX? If you wait it out a year or two, its minor volatility doesn't matter and it "always" does better than cash.
Portfolio Visualizer comparing RPHIX and cash
I believe MikeM was looking at corporate bonds, not callable CDs. Only assume that the bond will be called if it is currently trading above par. Even then, should interest rates go back up, or if the company issuing the bond should have cash flow issues, you may wind up with the bond for a longer period of time.
I just had a muni bond called that was eligible to be called a couple of years ago. For whatever reason the government entity didn't call the bond for awhile. The bond was even trading above par, so not it not getting called was a plus for me. But much of the time if a bond doesn't get called, it's because its price has dropped below par. Then you're stuck with the bond or you sell it at a loss.

So good to hear from you @dtconroe. Was concerned about your absence. You have so much to offer when it comes to fixed income investing.
Re ” … or jumping back into the more active investing options “
A couple years older here and never been the “cash” type. But depends on a lot of personal situation factors. I’m at 7.5% in Fido’s MM fund. Take whatever they give me. The 2 “least risky” components of the larger portfolio (15.5% each) are CVSIX and LPXAX. Both should generate a percent or two over cash longer term. However, am prepared for some ocassional down years (- 3-5%) as well. And the fees tend to be higher than most want. Also, there’s been some discussion of (lower fee) JAAA as an alternative to cash - but we don’t have a firm grasp of the risk under certain adverse conditions.
Just killing some time on a nasty winter morning. Best wishes.

Hi hank, nice to hear from you. My investing choices have moved into very passive CDs in recent years. I just don't think my investing choices offer much information, that others would be interested in. My personal situation is virtually unchanged, except that I have no need to chase higher returns via active investing, with frequent buy/sell decisions. I still monitor a large number of watchlists, primarily various categories of bond oefs, but have not been inclined to invest in those bond oefs recently. I may choose to carve out a small position in a fund on my watchlist, just to stay in touch with something other than passive CD choices, so now is a time where that may be viable.

So good to hear from you @dtconroe. Was concerned about your absence. You have so much to offer when it comes to fixed income investing.
Re ” … or jumping back into the more active investing options “
A couple years older here and never been the “cash” type. But depends on a lot of personal situation factors. I’m at 7.5% in Fido’s MM fund. Take whatever they give me. The 2 “least risky” components of the larger portfolio (15.5% each) are CVSIX and LPXAX. Both should generate a percent or two over cash longer term. However, am prepared for some ocassional down years (- 3-5%) as well. And the fees tend to be higher than most want. Also, there’s been some discussion of (lower fee) JAAA as an alternative to cash - but we don’t have a firm grasp of the risk under certain adverse conditions.
Just killing some time on a nasty winter morning. Best wishes.

Many of my higher rate CDs are maturing. I am extending some to 3 to 5 years even if the rate is 3.40% for 3 years(the rate I am getting for one maturing today). I just turned 76 years of age. With ultra-conservative passive investing my post-retirement savings has doubled and, so far, knock on a lucky door, my non-saving, non-RMD income has exceeded my spending. (Spending, be deviled, 57% of that spending this year has been nothing but federal and property tax.) I discovered I just no longer want to chase the rates or the markets. I guess I should find some tax free stuff since anything I do seems to raise my unused dividends/interest and cost me more in taxes.
Girls just wanna have fun.