I don’t think we’ll see anything near 10% Y/Y inflation (CPI) this year or next. As for the “general public” I have little faith in their understanding of money, markets, financial planning. We’ve been dumbed down and polarized as a society compared to the 70s..
However, I don’t recall that inflation was much of a “hot button” issue 70s thru 80s. ISTM most took it in stride along with all the other pieces of the economic puzzle. Among those: jobs, wages, perks (like retirement benefits and health insurance), the stock market, quality of public services and infrastructure and educational opportunities. So it was an issue. But not a “hot button” one.
PS - Along with the inflation of the 70s & 80s there were several U.S. manned lunar landings and other advancements in space - something to be really proud of as a nation. And it was perhaps the genesis period for what later became the technological revolution. Loved my first computer - a Vic 20 (early 80s).

Hearing March inflation numbers will be at 70 year high.... April inflation numbers likely over 10%
Seems unreal to even type that... what will the general public think about that...
Best
Baseball Fan

I've been afraid I'm too late to the oil/gas thing. Then I'm seeing uncle Joe release the spigot. Oil price down. Not sure about NG. Watching this thread closely. As for portfolio performance, -3.64% ytd. Down to 41% bonds by now. That number is for combined tax deferred and taxable holdings.

"Global pandemic. Brexit. Turmoil in U.S. politics. Inflation rates unparalleled since the 1980s. And now a war on Ukraine by Russia—a nuclear power.
It’s little wonder that market strategists are scrambling to explain to their clients how “black swan” events (unforeseen catastrophes) and geopolitics have affected stock markets—and how the future is as unpredictable as ever.
“Buckle in,” advises BNY Mellon in one such missive, warning investors to stay prepared for “significant volatility.”
A select group of mutual-fund managers have managed to stay ahead of the curve. Their decisions to seek opportunities in market downturns, like buying attractively priced stocks their peers were overlooking, has helped them not only navigate the turmoil but post some eye-popping returns.
“Beginning early on in the pandemic, we realized that there was a huge disparity in the value of priced-to-perfection large stocks like the giant technology companies, and companies on the other side of the spectrum, like materials and commodities” stocks, says Scott Barbee, manager of Aegis Value Fund (AVALX). “There clearly was a lot of mispricing of both value and risk.”
Mr. Barbee’s conviction that hard assets would get a boost from the end of the pandemic and the conclusion of fiscal stimulus helped propel his fund to the top of The Wall Street Journal’s quarterly ranking of outperforming U.S.-stock mutual funds for the rolling 12 months ended March 31."
WSJ Article
p.s. FWIW, DHAMX and VNSYX were numerous 2&3.

Many thanks folks. I’m learning about funds I didn’t know existed. Since many offered their YTD return, I’ll venture outside my comfort level and say that at Friday’s close I was down 1.05% YTD. With me, everything revolves around the benchmark. Mine is an equal weighting of: PRSIX, AOK, ABRZX. Combined they are down 3.22% YTD. Obviously, heavy bond exposure hurt them. I believe my benchmark to be appropriate for someone in their mid to late 70s.
Warren Buffet did me a favor agreeing to buy Y less than a month after I did (+25%). Modest exposure to gold & industrial metals has been a plus. But I’ve damaged my return by clinging to TAIL. It’s designed to protect against sharp equity selloffs. Had I realized the extent to which it reacts to VIX readings (the “fear gage”) I could have probably done a better job trading it. Added a bit this morning. Just over 6% of portfolio.
The only area I play around with is the 10% devoted to hedging equity risk. The two other funds in that group (DRSK & GLDB) have held up much better. I’m quite bearish on equity markets in general. That’s for another thread.

I understand this will be part of their just-launched Wealth Management Solutions Group which consolidates a bunch of related services.....
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/morningstar-plans-to-acquire-leveraged-commentary--data-301516351.html
CHICAGO and SEATTLE, April 4, 2022 /PRNewswire/ -- Morningstar Inc. (MORN), a leading provider of independent investment research (Nasdaq: MORN), has reached an agreement to acquire Leveraged Commentary & Data (LCD), a market leader in news, research, data, insights, and indexes for the leveraged finance market from S&P Global. The purchase price is up to $650 million in cash, comprised of $600 million at closing, subject to certain adjustments, and a contingent payment of up to $50 million six months after closing, upon the achievement of certain conditions related to the transition of LCD customer relationships.
LCD is the industry standard for leveraged loan data, news, analysis, and indexes, providing coverage across the full lifecycle of loans. The leveraged loan market data provider will integrate with Morningstar's PitchBook Platform, which delivers data, research, and technology covering the breadth of the private and public capital markets. This unique dataset combined with PitchBook's already robust data, insights, and technology will create a centralized platform for participants in the leveraged finance market.
< - >
The acquisition of LCD will complement PitchBook's robust product and research capabilities and provide coverage of every metric of the leveraged loan market, including structure, pricing, yield, volume, along with secondary market performance and LBO/private equity activity. LCD is the only provider of real-time coverage of the U.S. and European leveraged loan and high-yield bond markets, from deal inception through the trading life of the debt. It also provides growing coverage of investment grade bond issuance, distressed debt, corporate bankruptcies, middle market transactions and CLO/fundraising. Over 20 years, LCD has provided data on over 30,000 issuers and 85,000 transactions.
LCD has more than 500 leveraged loan indexes in the U.S. and Europe tracking performance, index characteristics, and risk measures comprised of over 1,800 loans. The S&P/LSTA Leveraged Loan Index—the flagship benchmark for this asset class—and related indexes will become part of the expanding fixed-income capabilities from Morningstar Indexes, one of the fastest-growing global index providers.
< - >

@davfor; chart came through only for 1 yr. Use Permalink feature for posting chart as-is. After a while, even these will default to 1 yr. Alternative is to take screenshot, save on a hosting site (ImgBB, etc) and post using Image tool.

Does the chart you see when clicking on the link include a sliding tab below the graph that permits extending it for any covered time period (up to 4537 days in this case)? Anyway, here is a jpg of the extended chart (I didn't notice the Permalink button until after creating the jpg...but thanks for the tip):

It is a difficult year, especially and the "bond ballast" has sunk.
My wife and my retirement accounts are up about 2.4% as we are overwieght energy and commodities, but still only 30% in equity positions. Recent Value focus helps too
Non-retirement accounts are up about 1.5%, a little more equities because I am cautious selling winners as the capital gains push our IRRMA up for Medicare, and are taxed at 12% in Massachusetts
I think the risk to the downside is far higher than risk of missing new bull market.

@davfor; chart came through only for 1 yr. Use Permalink feature for posting chart as-is. After a while, even these will default to 1 yr. Alternative is to take screenshot, save on a hosting site (ImgBB, etc) and post using Image tool.

Writing style/presentation method(s) allow each of us to absorb information that may be more understandable, versus another form.
This thread has contained a variety of presentations/thoughts about the yield curve. The below link is a short read and is written, in such a way, to perhaps help some to better perceive possible yield curve implications.
Why does the yield curve invert?
Remain curious,
Catch

According to that SEC disclosure Charles posted, it all stemmed from a 1997 DUI that was plea bargained, and he must have misrepresented the outcome (?). Says nothing about financial fraud or anything like that.
Seems like I've seen that used as a knock against Semper, which if this filing is the whole truth, is a bit over the top.

Thanks for the insights @BaseballFan.
Your questions are beyond my pay grade.
But according to the linked article U.S. housing prices climbed to a new record level in March. From my general reading a lot has to do with (1) rising lumber and materials prices, (2) labor shortages in the skilled trades. (3) wage inflation, (4) population shifts due to covid concerns - a growing preference for houses over multi-family.
Notwithstanding all of the above, housing, like other markets, is prone to periods of boom and bust. I’d say valuations are stretched. The broader economy? Don’t know. I’m a pessimist by nature. The inverted curve might be signaling something. If so, most economists would say it’s 6 months or more out in front of any significant economic deterioration. In that case, it would still leave time to party. Stay tuned.

Bloomberg is reporting that 2-year and 30-year treasuries are now inverted …..

Between 12/10/2007 and 4/1/2022:
UTF w/div: +185.15% (cumulative)
UTF price: -0.14% (cumulative)
Figures are from M*'s interactive chart for UTF.
Price return is from chart, after setting start date and frequency to "daily".
w/Div comes from chart after adding comparison with GII (S&P Global Infrastructure ETF). The chart seems to automatically switch from price returns to total returns when the comparison is added.
GII is a 40/60 US infrastructure fund. I haven't checked its hedging policy.
For a list of infrastructure funds (except CEFs), see also US News:
https://money.usnews.com/funds/search?category=infrastructure&mutual-funds=true&etfs=true
For CEF infrastructure funds, the Nuveen CEF screener does a decent job.
https://www.cefconnect.com/closed-end-funds-screener
Screening for equity sector funds (32 in all) includes the infrastructure funds: BUI, UTF, SZC, DPG, MGU, MFD, MEGI.

UTF is a high distribution CEF. Its price may not show how it did, but on adjusted-prices (approximating TR) it has kept up with SP500/SPY (both UTF and _UTF are seen on Stockcharts below, 1/1/07-now). Check out more details at CEFConnect.
https://stockcharts.com/h-perf/ui?s=UTF&compare=_UTF&id=p37188499299
https://www.cefconnect.com/fund/UTF

“Also, curious as to why all the attentionon Wood/Arkk...meself,”
Agree. The fund has ISTM received an inordinate amount of commentary in the media (and perhaps here). I guess the media likes bright and shiny objects - likes them even better after the gloss fades and they become objects of derision.
@Baseball_Fan ‘s comments spark a few additional questions …
(1) To what extent do CNBC & others allow ratings (ie advertising dollars) to affect what they cover and how they cover it? My uninformed guess is that ratings matter a great deal more than whether viewers’ pocketbooks are well served.
(2) To what extent is “salesmanship” important to running a fund?
(3) Is there something special about Wood’s demeanor / public persona that tends to attract some investors and/or foster a cult following?
These type of stocks offer little appeal to me. But were I to find a niche in my portfolio for them, I’d rather research 4 or 5 individual stocks on my own and invest small sums directly in them, figuring 1 or 2 will go bust, but 2 or 3 might prosper. The advantage is you are less at the mercy of fund flows than owning them through a fund. Individual investors are also more nimble ISTM than a manager of billions - able to get in and out of positions more quickly.
I think of the great investors / fund managers who inspired me over the years. Names like John Templeton, John Bogle or Michael Price. I see them shaking their heads at the Wood methodology and sales pitch.

Read Barron's, but don't bet the house (-:) on anything Barron's say.
Simple reason may be that homebuilders fell along with the general market and didn't catch the latest rebound (ITB is homebuilders in the chart link below). Also, since Barron's wrote on housing in Fall, Powell is playing a different tune, and then Putin acted up. Moreover, homebuilders are looking at housing 6-9 month down the road.
https://stockcharts.com/h-perf/ui?s=$SPX&compare=$COMPQ,$INDU,IWM,ITB&id=p27963165230

Just Friday (4/1/2022) Andrew Bary at Barron's had this to say about home builders stocks:
"The housing market is still robust, but home-building stocks have been rocked this year as investors worry that surging mortgage rates will dampen activity later in 2022 and in 2023.
The result is that the industry now has the lowest price/earnings ratio in the stock market, at around four times projected 2022 earnings.
With the sector so inexpensive, the risk-reward equation looks favorable, given that many stocks are trading at, or near, book value.
Thirty-year mortgage rates have risen to almost 4.7%, from 3% in late 2021. Should they start to slide back, the stocks could rally. And the shares could gain, even if rates hold at current levels—should favorable industry trends continue."
Like @hank I don't have a non-paywall link to provide but should anyone try to give it a go here's the linked page I read.
Home Builders Are the Cheapest Stocks Around. Is It Time to Buy?

@David_Snowball: thanks for the chance to get First Sentier’s take on US infrastructure exposure. I was surprised to find that the fund holds almost exclusively energy and utilities stocks. I have put some money into PAVE, the GlobalX US Infrastructure Development ETF. It holds 100 stocks of industrial companies that make the « stuff » that is needed to build bridges, roads, etc. Think Nucor, Trane, Deere, Eaton, as well as transportation and energy firms. Utilities are not a meaningful part of the portfolio. As you pointed out, almost all infrastructure funds are global, a niche in which GLFOX (also an Aussie product) has made its mark.