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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Let the SS COLA Projections for 2022 Begin
    I will admit to buying our BBQ charcoal there... two 18lb bags taped together. I have to cut the tape in order to even lift the damned things.
  • Mid-Year Update Brings Rolling Batting Averages and Trend Ratings
    @Charles : would it be possible to provide a list of Great Owls that have retained that honor through years 1,3,5,10, & 20 years? I tried ,but believe funds were listed that made the list at least in 1 years. I found a list from 2013 & would like to compare
    Thanks you, Derf
  • Osterweis Strategic Income - OSTIX
    @Derf,
    The data Charles posted is only 6 months long from 2021, Jan to 2021, June. MFO risk ranking reflected the fund has not done well in 2021 as the rotation of growth stocks to the value funds (large and small stock funds) started in late 2020. A small pullback in May 2021 is reflected in the -6.2% MAXDD. Many small cap growth funds are volatile. You can review the longer track record of OSTGX in MFO Premium.
    OSTGX has been profiled by David Snowball on September 2020 in the link below.
    https://mutualfundobserver.com/2020/09/osterweis-emerging-opportunity-ostgx/#more-14549
    Jim Callinan the fund manager has an excellent and long track record in small cap growth stocks. When the environment favors this asset class, the fund excels comparing to his peers.
    OSTIX was a recommended bond fund for his clients by BobC who retired from his advisory business. I invested with this fund as well for the same reason as @fred495 stated - consistency for year-to-year.
  • Vanguard Global Wellington
    This week our MFO poster, Lewis Brahram wrote about a relatively new Vanguard Global Wellington fund, VGWLX with the two new managers, Nataliya Kofman and Loren Moran. The investment process, top 10 holdings and the 3-year performance versus world allocation category were discussed.
    Please note Vanguard Wellington is still open to new investors at Vanguard. It may not be available in other brokerages such as Fidelity and Schwab.
    https://barrons.com/articles/vanguard-global-wellington-stock-bond-fund-51626277810
    For disclosure, we invested with this fund several years ago and continue to build to the target allocation.
  • Let the SS COLA Projections for 2022 Begin
    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/11/8-foods-not-to-buy-at-costco-according-to-experts.html
    I'm still looking for that answer, how many seniors belong to Sam's Club and buy 10 pound sacks of potatoes at at time?
    Derf
  • Osterweis Strategic Income - OSTIX
    Good one. One of better performing MS Income funds this year. Here's summary of Osterweis family YTD:
    image
  • Let the SS COLA Projections for 2022 Begin
    What's shocking about the table is that they would not only cherry pick data, but double and triple count it. And not even label entries the same as in the study. And did you notice that this list of top ten costs has eleven items (see #8)? Makes one wonder about the basic arithmetic in the study.
    #6, "Total medical out-of-pocket costs". In the study, that's called "Total medical expenses, not including premiums." Either way, one would naturally expect that to represent, well, everything that a "typical" senior paid for health care (doctors, hospitals, pharmaceuticals, durable (and not so durable) medical equipment, etc.). Everything outside of insurance premiums; at least that's what "out-of-pocket" usually means.
    So many things are wrong with this line:
    • If this counts all medical expenses other than premiums, then including line 1, "prescription drug ... out-of-pocket" is a double count.
    • In reality, this line supposedly represents how much the government pays for Medicare expenses. So it's what seniors don't pay. According to the study, these figures come from the 2020 Medicare Trustee report, Table V.D1, p. 118 (pdf p.124). Further, while the 2020 figure matches the Trustee report, the 2000 figure doesn't quite.
    • If one really compares Medicare out-of-pocket costs with Medicare premiums, they're much closer to 1-to-1 (2-1 if one excludes Medigap) than the 10-to-1 suggested by lines 2 and 6 in the top ten table). Here's a KFF graph from 2016 with a pie chart comparing the two. I doubt the ratios have shifted radically since then, especially given the way premiums are set.
      image
      https://www.kff.org/medicare/issue-brief/how-much-do-medicare-beneficiaries-spend-out-of-pocket-on-health-care/
    I'll take KFF any day over an advocacy group that doesn't explain how it comes up with its numbers and misrepresents what they mean.
    In their supposed methodology document, the Senior Citizens League does not provide the criteria for selecting the 39 "typical" categories.
    In saying that it "uses somewhat similar weightings" to CPI-E, it fails to explain why it deviates from the CPI-E weightings, let alone how it calculates the deviations. While it gives you broad categories weightings (e.g. it weights medical 14.1% vs. CPI-E's 12.2%), it doesn't give you a breakdown of weights for the various medical components like the aforementioned lines #2 (Part B premiums) and #1 (prescription drugs), or its several other "typical" medical categories.
    But the worst part, the very worst, is that it prices 10 pound of potatoes (line item #7) at Sam's Club in Charlottesville Virginia. Now I ask you, how many seniors belong to Sam's Club and buy 10 pound sacks of potatoes at at time? :-)
  • Let the SS COLA Projections for 2022 Begin
    Further Reading on:
    Reducing Retirement Risk with a Rising Equity Glidepath
    Rising Equity Glidepath
  • Let the SS COLA Projections for 2022 Begin
    One thought on @bee 's comment. I finally realized I will not live forever as I looked at turning 70. After considering reasonable life cycle needs and set-aside goals for relatives and non-profits, I decided it was time to loosen up a bit on my equity side limit (mostly through more dividend producing equity investments) and to also loosen up a little bit on my withdrawal rate. Will digest changes made for a while. Don't know if I will increase equity percent further later but am comfortable with the increase implemented in 2019-2020. (I have enough flexibility to substantially decrease withdrawal rate if market conditions dictate this is advisable.)
  • Wealthtrack - Weekly Investment Show - with Consuelo Mack
    USING HISTORY TO PREDICT THE MARKETS WITH RENOWNED HISTORIAN NIALL FERGUSON
    July 16, 2021

  • Let the SS COLA Projections for 2022 Begin
    Here the Buying Power Study referenced in @davfor link and an image. Staying ahead of inflation when you no longer enjoy wage inflation (a raise from work income) is probably why Wade Pfau and Micheal Kitces recommend a increasing equity glide path from the date of retirement forward. Stocks stay ahead of inflation over the long term.
    Should Equity Exposure Decrease In Retirement, Or Is A Rising Equity Glidepath Actually Better?
    should-equity-exposure-decrease-in-retirement-or-is-a-rising-equity-glidepath-actually-better
    Social Security Buying Power
    temporary-improvement-in-social-security-buying-power-wiped-out-by-soaring-inflation
    image
  • Let the SS COLA Projections for 2022 Begin
    This M* article looks at current projections and remaining uncertainties that will impact the October COLA announcement and also considers potential changes to the Medicaire Part B premium:

    Social Security Cost-of-Living Adjustment Looks Uncertain
  • Only the Rich Could Love This Economic Recovery
    This article provides some historical perspective and reviews some of the policy change recommendations currently being discussed:
    How the Federal Reserve can really help America
  • Osterweis Strategic Income - OSTIX
    From M*: "Osterweis Strategic Income is a unique high-yield offering with a strong risk-adjusted return profile, particularly over the longer term." It also rates the fund's risk as "low".
    I am using this fund along with NVHAX and RCTIX in the bond portion of my portfolio. While its YTD total return is "only" 4.2%, its 3, 5, 10 and 15 year returns range consistently between 5 and 6%. The fund's average effective duration is currently 1.9, and the standard deviation 5.7.
    As a conservative and retired investor, I am quite happy with OSTIX's consistent performance over the past 15 years. Thought it deserves to be mentioned again since the last time this fund was discussed was nearly a year ago.
    Fred
  • Oakmark Small Cap Fund in registration
    I agree that their performance has lagged of recently. Value has improved from prior years of late and it may be time to look at it again.
    I used to own the Oakmark Small Cap Fund until it was liquidated. D&C does have its Global Fund, but they may look may start something else in several years. The most recent D&C fund to open, prior to the Emerging Markets Fund, was the Global Bond Fund in 2015. I always wanted D&C to open a small cap fund, but somehow I doubt they will.
  • Cash Flow Strategy
    I've had limited vicarious experience (POA, executor) with investment real estate property including depreciating and inheriting it, and with using a margin account to borrow against securities (drawing out cash). So I've gone through the processes, but that's about all.
    The buy/borrow/die strategy seems to be to tap (borrow) money gradually as needed (without incurring taxes). Not so much to leverage for more investing whether in stocks or real estate. When the strategy is followed in moderation over time margin calls should not be a concern. That's because as the assets appreciate, the loan to value ratio drops, enabling one to safely borrow more.
    The Navy Fed conventional mortgage rate you mentioned is almost surely for an owner-occupied home. That's different from investment property. You can't depreciate your home and you can't take a loss on it if you sell it for less than cost.
    But what one can do with owner occupied property and not with investment property is flip it to avoid cap gains taxes. One does not need to buy/borrow/die. One can exclude up to $250K (individual)/$500K (joint) of gain from income. Rinse and repeat. This is not a cash flow strategy. However the point of the buy/borrow/die strategy is not so much to generate cash flow as it is to avoid taxes on the needed cash.
    I've rarely looked at IB, because it is targeted at active traders, and because historically it was not hospitable to mutual fund investors. From what I see now, some of that has changed. In general I'm not a good source of info on IB. Perhaps the more active traders here can provide better insight.
    One thing I did find is that IB just (July 1) dropped its inactivity fees on IB Pro.
    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/interactive-brokers-makes-waves-inactivity-132135973.html
    My limited experience with borrowing cash on margin was suggesting this to a friend to use as a bridge loan between closing on the purchase of one property and on the sale of another. The payments made on the loan were pure interest. Since the entire amount was repaid once the sale closed, I can't say for certain that a partial repayment would have been okay, though I don't see why not.
  • Impromptu Webinar Video Recording [30 July]
    Thank you all for participating in yesterday's webinar.
    Here's link to material.
  • Cash Flow Strategy
    @msf,
    This is all outside my pay grade, but I think you make a good point regarding the use of borrowing on margin. I just would be concerned with the risks of borrowing on margin and how one might mitigate risk.
    If one bought real estate using a margin loan how would one best manage downside market risk? If markets trend upward, the investor might enjoy the ride of both the stock market and the real estate market. But, if markets trend downward, all kinds of negative scenarios come to mind. The most devastating being a margin call on the loan. A loan that is tied up in a not so liquid asset, real estate, that may be losing value also.
    Would a protective puts help? Option contracts would add additional costs and would need to be rewritten as they expire. They might provide a layer of insurance against a margin loan being call.
    As far as IB goes:
    Is there a cost to being on the IBPro platform at IB verses their IBLite membership?
    -The Margin loan rates look to be about half with IBPro (1.3% verse the 2.6% you quoted).
    Wonder also, is the surcharge avoidable and is it a one time charge?
    Is a margin loan purely an interest only loan?
    Are these loans "all or nothing loan" or can one pay down the margin & interest over time?
    Navy Federal has 2.635% fixed for 30 years (conventional mortgage loan)...cash-out refinanace comes in at 4.25%
  • Oakmark Small Cap Fund in registration
    Some history:
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0000872323/000104746903024284/a2112100z497.txt
    497
    1
    a2112100z497.txt
    497
    SUPPLEMENT DATED JULY 16, 2003
    TO PROSPECTUS OF THE OAKMARK FAMILY OF FUNDS DATED JANUARY 29, 2003
    THE OAKMARK SMALL CAP FUND - NEW CO-MANAGER
    Edward A. Studzinski, C.F.A., has become co-manager of The Oakmark Small Cap
    Fund with James P. Benson. Mr. Studzinski has replaced Clyde S. McGregor. Mr.
    McGregor continues to manage The Oakmark Equity and Income Fund with Mr.
    Studzinski. Mr. Studzinski joined the Adviser as an analyst in 1995. Previously,
    Mr. Studzinski was Vice President and Investment Officer at Mercantile National
    Bank of Indiana. He holds an M.B.A. in Marketing and Finance from Northwestern
    University (1985), a J.D. from Duke University (1974), and an A.B. in History
    from Boston College (1971).
    THE OAKMARK FAMILY OF FUNDS - NEW ADDRESS
    Effective June 1, 2003, the address for The Oakmark Family of Funds has changed
    to:
    FOR MAIL: FOR EXPRESS DELIVERY OR COURIER:
    The Oakmark Funds The Oakmark Funds
    P.O. Box 219558 330 West 9th Street
    Kansas City, MO 64121-9558 Kansas City, MO 64105-1514
    SUPPJULY03
    ======================================================
    Here is when the fund was liquidated:
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0000872323/000104746904025313/a2141447z497.txt
    497
    1
    a2141447z497.txt
    497
    HARRIS ASSOCIATES INVESTMENT TRUST
    Supplement dated August 4, 2004
    to the Prospectus of The Oakmark Family of Funds dated January 31, 2004
    LIQUIDATION OF THE OAKMARK SMALL CAP FUND
    On August 4, 2004, the board of trustees of Harris Associates Investment
    Trust, upon the recommendation of Harris Associates L.P. (the "Adviser"),
    approved a plan to liquidate and terminate The Oakmark Small Cap Fund (the
    "Fund"). The liquidation is expected to occur on or about September 28, 2004
    (the "Liquidation Date").
    As of August 4, 2004, a substantial majority of the Fund's total assets
    consisted of cash or cash equivalents, and the balance of the portfolio is
    expected to be in cash or cash equivalents before the Liquidation Date. During
    this liquidation period, the Adviser has agreed to waive its management fees
    payable by the Fund.
    The Fund has not accepted any purchases of Fund shares since August 2nd and
    will not accept any purchases of Fund shares through the Liquidation Date.
    However, at any time prior to the Liquidation Date, you may redeem shares of the
    Fund pursuant to the procedures set forth in the prospectus. Beginning August 5,
    2004, the Fund will waive the 2% redemption fee on shares held for 90 days or
    less.
    You may also exchange your shares of the Fund for shares of any other fund
    in The Oakmark Family of Funds. No redemption fee will be imposed on such an
    exchange transaction.
    Shareholders of taxable accounts in the Fund who do not exchange or redeem
    their shares prior to the Liquidation Date will have the proceeds of their
    account sent to them when the liquidation occurs. The proceeds will be the net
    asset value of such shares in the shareholder's account after provision for
    charges, taxes, expenses and liabilities.
    Absent an instruction to the contrary received by the Oakmark Funds
    prior to the Liquidation Date, shares held in an individual retirement
    account ("IRA"), SIMPLE IRA, or Coverdell Education Savings Account or in
    custodial accounts under a SEP or SARSEP, or in certain other retirement plan
    accounts will be exchanged on the Liquidation Date for Oakmark Units of the
    Government Portfolio, a money market fund.
    HASSUP 804