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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Benchmarking my portfolio
    At close on 3/15: Thought I'd update progress on some of these benchmarks. Over all I'm at about -6.5% YTD with about 45% in equities. My total is spilt between the hands-off robo, Schwab Intelligent Portfolio, -6.0%, and my self-managed, -7.1%. It appears I'm not as intelligent as Schwab. Go figure...
    FWIW, TRP retirement funds YTD 3/15:
    TRRIX 38% stock = -7.0%
    TBLPX 41% stock = -7.3
    TBLQX 45% stock = -7.8
    TBLSX 48% stock = -8.2
    TSBAX 52% stock = -8.6
    TBLVX 60% stock = -9.6
    VTWAX vanguard total world stock index -12.9%
  • Golden Dragon China PGJ
    News is that some sort of compromise may develop for the US-listed Chinese stocks. China and HK markets are up strong and the ETF PGJ is also up strong in pre-market trading.
    https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/16/china-says-it-will-support-chinese-ipos-abroad-calls-for-closure-on-tech-crackdown.html
  • OIL
    Lets try it this way: If an investor believed WTI would rally 30% over the next year, what vehicle would you use? No individual options. No K-1's. No leverage ETF's.
    The answer to that is NONE.
    Commodities that are hard to handle (e.g. oil) or perishable (grains, meats) can be bought only through futures, and those diverge a lot from spot prices. Just think, if you bought barrels of crude oil on the spot market, where would you put it? Only dealers and refiners can handle spot crude. So, as imperfect as futures may be, that is all investors have to play with.
    Precious metals are exceptions because you can buy and store physical gold/silver/platinum, etc and store in home safe or bank locker. There may be small friction in buying and selling (5-15%). And you can buy precious metal futures too. So, there is dual way to handle precious metals.
  • OIL
    Lets try it this way: If an investor believed WTI would rally 30% over the next year, what vehicle would you use? No individual options. No K-1's. No leverage ETF's.
  • CEF. SOR. Source Capital
    I'm not personally familiar with this CEF, but one word of possible caution...with an average daily volume of 12,497 shares, if you ever wanted to enter a position, or more importantly exit a position, you might find yourself waiting a bit.
  • US Gasoline Prices at Pump
    Agree it’s a “hot-button” issue. Critics will milk it for all its worth. Such is today’s world of politics and eyeball obsessed media.
    My Hybrid Accord holds about 12.5 gallons. Goes over 500 miles on that. Very little “pain at the pump.” I never fully understood the fascination by many with big 4 & 6 passenger pickup trucks and SUVs for everyday use. A “life-style” choice for those who never have to haul cargo, tow a heavy trailer or go “off road.” But - yuppers - it has to hurt to drive something getting 15 mpg today.
  • OIL
    What does "better" mean? You asked for the vehicle that most closely correlates to WTI oil price. Closest and better performing are not the same. Nor do I suspect that any of the 1099 funds would track that closely, because they're likely to use futures or other derivatives. They don't necessarily track the actual (spot) price of commodities. Notice that the spot price never dropped below zero; only the futures did.
    image
    https://etfdb.com/etfs/commodity/crude-oil/#etfs__holdings&sort_name=assets_under_management&sort_order=desc&page=1
    You can check out whichever ones interest you.
    As an example, DBO returned -5x as much as OILK over the past three years (60%+ vs -12%+). On a point-to-point basis (March 14, 2019 to March 14, 2022) WTI nearly doubled, from around $56 to around $100. Neither of these came close to that.
    https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/rwtcD.htm
    https://oilprice.com/oil-price-charts/#WTI-Crude
  • Plummeting commodity prices and inflation?
    Seems many are positioned for rising inflation in their fund holdings. I am no chartist but see tops galore in commodities - either exhaustion tops or just plain old fashioned tops. And lumber shows a classic triple top. Some commodities with exhaustion tops are down 20% to 25% (and more if you include palladium) in a very short period of time. I am a bear on equities (like just about everyone else) In January I had alluded to the 73/74 period with prices unfolding far worse than many bears are currently expecting - much deeper and longer. And the bond market looks broken beyond repair. But I am beginning to wonder if we are all being fooled by the headline news of uncertainty over Ukraine, interest rates, inflation, and the pandemic The stock market is a counterintuitive creature and even more so at bottoms. Logic just doesn’t cut it. I don’t want my bearish bias to influence me and will be closely watching for one or two humongous momentum days that come out of the blue (upside over downside volume) and then go from there. In other words, let the market tell me what to do and not my opinion. Meanwhile, If anyone can explain what is going on with the plummeting commodity prices I am all ears.
    +1. Thoughts well worth keeping in mind!
  • OIL
    This is more than you asked:
    OILK (WTI;1099), USO (WTI; K-1), BNO (Brent; K-1). These hold oil futures.
  • TRP CEFs
    Not quite every ETF operates under the same rules. As the PR notes, "Rule 6c-11 will be available to ETFs organized as open-end funds, the structure for the vast majority of ETFs today".
    A couple of not so obscure ETFs with a different structure are SPY and DIA. Since the creation of new UITs is unlikely and the SEC would have struggled to fit them into Rule 6c-11, UITs were excluded from the Rule.
    More generally, "While the Rule covers most ETFs, the Rule excludes unit investment trust (UIT) ETFs, Leveraged/Inverse ETFs, Share Class ETFs [notably Vanguard ETFs], and Non-Transparent ETFs."
    Exchange-Traded Funds Alert, October 2019; A Closer Look at the New ETF Rule, Stradley Ronon
    It draws a distinction not so much between passive and active as between transparent and non-transparent. I suppose in theory an index fund could be non-transparent. I'd ask why bother, except Vanguard seemed to think there was a reason not to disclose its index ETF holdings.
    I recall that Vanguard characterized its Tax-Managed International Fund¹ (VTMGX) as actively managed while calling the ETF share class of the fund, VEA, passively managed. I asked Vanguard about this, and the response was that tax management made the fund actively managed, but the ETF (same fund) was passively managed! Yes, Vanguard got away with murder.
    ¹ On "April 4, 2014, Vanguard Developed Markets Index Fund merged into Vanguard Tax-Managed International Fund, and the combined fund was renamed Vanguard Developed Markets Index Fund."
    https://institutional.vanguard.com/investments/product-details/fund/0127
  • Tough Day in Bond Land
    Does anyone here buy individual corporate bonds or TBills?
    I know you can do latter through TreasuryDirect, as well as broker.
    Examples:
    Dish, B- (hmmm), 1 year, 5%
    Ford, BB+, 1 year, callable (lol), 3.7%
    Alibaba, A+, 1 year, 3%
    US TBill, 1 year, 1.5%
  • OIL
    What US listed publicly traded vehicle most closely correlates to WTI oil price? Cannot be a K-1 or ETN.
  • TRP CEFs
    For decades, the ETFs operated under the so-called "exemptive-orders" (from rules that were really designed for mutual funds). Early ETFs got generous exemptions, but the later ones had more restrictive exemptions. Vanguard got away with murder with its very early exemptive-orders. The SEC announced reforms to this old, contorted mechanism and guess who was among those opposing the reforms - Vanguard. Anyway, the reforms happened in 2019 and now every ETF has to follow the same rules. But rules are still different for passive ETFs, active ETFs, leveraged ETFs (another fiasco where the SEC left out ETNs from those).
    https://www.sec.gov/news/press-release/2019-190
  • TRP CEFs
    Traditionally, indexed ETFs were not required to disclose holdings on a daily basis. The rules were changed in the past few years; in 2015 the WSJ wrote:
    here’s what many ETF investors probably don’t know: Passively managed ETFs—those that seek to track an index—actually aren't required to disclose all of their portfolio holdings daily.
    Many fund sponsors voluntarily provide that information. But at least one major ETF sponsor, Vanguard Group, doesn’t.
    Index funds do have to make available to so-called "authorized participants"—typically large institutional organizations, such as large securities firms—what's known as a "creation basket" daily. That list of securities typically [but not always] mirrors an ETF’s holdings or is a representative sample. Authorized participants who assemble and deliver that specified basket of securities receive ETF shares in its place.
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/BL-TOTALB-2415
    My point here is just that IMHO transparency is overrated. Vanguard ETFs worked well for many years without it. So long as the arbitrage mechanism with authorized participants and portfolio composition files (creation basket/redemption basket) works well to keep market price close to NAV, daily transparency isn't essential.
    As Sven noted, mutual funds generally take their full 30 days plus to disclose portfolios and investors are okay with that.
    Surely no list of offbeat active ETFs that voluntarily release holdings on a daily basis would be complete without mentioning ARKK's daily disclosure.
  • Tough Day in Bond Land
    Overnight the 10 year touched 2.14% . Stunned me a bit seeing it on the Bloomberg screen.
    High by recent standards.
    +1 @Charles Thanks for reposting that photo. The 3 riders: “Stocks”, “Bonds” and “Commodities”.
  • Tough Day in Bond Land
    For retirees who depend on bond yield, this is not a friendly environment.
    Today the yield on 2 and 10 year treasuries went down a bit today after the 10 Y went over 2.0% on Monday.
    Fed meets on Wednesday, March 16th and will decide to hike the rate 0.25% or 0.50%.
  • Plummeting commodity prices and inflation?
    @Junkster said, “don’t want my bearish bias to influence me …”
    I resemble that remark. :)
    I don’t think I can time the markets. (Perhaps others can.) I almost always regret it. Raising my “alternative” sleeve from 30% to 40% is probably the best move I’ve made recently. it’s a moderate but diversified mix of various strategies and includes one equity. Some came out of growth and some out of income. Reduces neck discomfort from all the whip-saw action.
    Still holding another 9-10% in hedges against equity downdrafts. About half of that in TAIL - which reduces the discomfort evident in that classic “Observer” thrill-ride photo that’s already been reposted.
    Gold’s down over $45 today to just above $1900. May seem like a lot - but need to remember it got down to $1700 on 2 or more occasions in 2021. So still well above that.
    EDIT: While gold is down, the p/m miners are having a decent day up nearly 1%. Looks like the industrial metals have trimmed their morning losses as well.
    You can believe in inflation without giving it a name or degree: ie “transient”, “rampant”, “slight” or “just about right”. I can’t think of any other reason for those of us with gray hair (or none at all) to put a single dime at risk unless we think paper currencies will buy less in coming years than they do today.