In looking at stocks. Pulling data form a couple of my barometer feeds I'm finding that the blended P/E Ratio for the S&P 500 Index computes to 26.1 along with it's yield being found at 1.76%. For me, this indicates that stock valuations are streached by some of the metrics that my late father used and scores stocks as overbought.
In looking at bonds. I'm finding that the yield on the US10T is 0.64%. I'm wondering what folks are thinking? That is better than what my money market funds are paying but it is still very low by historical standards. By my late father's standards this indicates that US Treasuries are extremely overbought.
With the above in mind I'm wondering where investors are putting new money to work? For me, I have increased the allocation I have in my income funds from 40% to 45%. My income sleeve has a yield of 4.23% and my hybrid income sleeve has a yield of 3.58%. Within my asset allocation model I am aleady overweight my income area by +5% so no more room to expand there.
This leaves 15% of my cash in low to no yield places such as money market mutal funds and cash savings. My highest paying money market mutual fund PCOXX has paid out a measley yield of 0.53%. Carry this out and for the full years it projects to a yield of less than one percent.
With this, I ponder ... What to do in my quest for better returns with some of my cash as it builds?
Option 1) Sit tight and build cash while I await the next stock market dip (or pull back) where I can put an equity special investment position (spiff) into play. Generally, in the past, I'd look to make at least five percent off my spiffs when engaged. For me, this will work.
Option 2) I can buy more of my commodity strategy fund (BCSAX) which has a yield of better than 2% and as inflation rises usually the price of commodities rise. This fund holds some gold and gold mining stocks as well. It should do well if the US Dollar continues to decline and the price of commodities rise. For me, this will work.
Option 3) I can buy more of my real estate income fund (FRINX). As the US Dollar declines generally real estate values increase plus long term this would act as a hedge against inflation. Woops already have a full allocation to real estate and high yield securites. No go here.
Option 4) Buy more of my convertible (FISCX) and preffered (PFANX) securities funds. Hold up ... already have a full allocation there.
Option 5) Buy more in my asset allocation funds and let my fund managers find opportunity. This would also work because it would spread the funds's asset mix among those I'm already invested in thus maintaining my asset allocation. Two funds that I'm thinking of are CFIAX & INPAX.
So, for me, going forward, over the near term, it looks like my better choices are numbers 1, 2, & 5 of the options I covered.
I am also wondering what you might have thought of and where you might be positioning new money in this low yield environment?
Thanks for stopping by and reading.
Take care ... be safe ... and, I wish all "Good Investing."
I am ... Old_Skeet

Hi Skeeter,
Yeah, have looked up SPECX. Looks like a good fund. Will add it to my watch list.
As far as mid caps....... have been selling them. Down to three funds. Small and mid caps worry me right now. I think things will get worse this fall and winter, so I don't want to own them. I did buy AMFFX....a small watch position. It's the only value fund I own and I'm in no hurry to add.
As for selling, I sold FEFQX. It was the last tech fund I bought. It had 33% cash, so I got in. Now it has 6% cash. I made good money in a short time period. The fund has a lot of mid tech in it and is way overpriced, I feel. So just took some profits for now.
I like your thinking this market is way overpriced. I have 17 funds in the portfolio at or nearly at 52-week highs. Have never seen anything like that before. So it would not surprise me to see a pullback. And everybody is going to buy it quickly so I don't think it will last long.
My biggest fear is evictions and bankruptcies. They're coming like a slow-motion train wreck. It's going to take a while but it's coming. I know I'm repeating this but it worries me.
Also, told the Dukester you think he's smart. Now he's walking around like he's all that....lol. That's Brown for ya.
God bless
the Pudd
p.s. I'm drinking a longneck now.....

Regarding debit/credit card rewards, Amex has beefed up its traditional Shop Small incentive. If you register your Amex card by tomorrow, they'll give you $5 credit if you buy $10+ at a wide variety of small businesses by Sept. 20th. You can do this 10 times.
https://www.americanexpress.com/us/small-business/shop-small/

You’ve identified the storyline here. What remains is how will the story end? With a bang or a whimper? And when? Those who’ve seen the last 15 minutes of this movie aren’t letting on - if they know. It’s tempting to forecast a 50% drubbing of the stock market in short order. The “smart money“ waiting in the wings awakens and moves into stocks at sharply lower prices. A happy ending for the forgotten few who resisted the temptation to own equities and held out long enough. Right out of Disney.

For those with longterm views and appropriately positioned accounts & investing mentalities, I suspect it'll end in annoying and noticeable whimper. But for those who 'bet it all on XYZ because CNBC/Twitter/Newsletter said so' and just play the markets the way they play DraftKings or FanDuel or spin a roulette wheel, I suspect it'll end in a big, bloody, bang for them ... as it probably would and serve them right, I guess.
I might speculate on short-term index moves via futures or ETFs but 95+ percent of my investments are for the long term unless the current situation suggests I should 'raise shields' a bit and go defensive ... which I did w/stuff i bought in Feb which I wanted to hold for the long term, but which I sold this month after insane run-ups in recent months.
Too bad there aren't futures on popcorn we could go long on while watching things, eh? ;)

@little5bee I've done a couple credit card deals, but avoid then cuz that's a sure credit pull...
I also do other things, like reward programs where you link your credit card & each time you shop or eat at certain places you get additional rewards. I use iDine & Dosh for this...for example, 1 restaurant I go to, when those 2 programs combine with my credit card rewards, I get 19% cash back, in addition to reward points at the restaurant (where I'm over $1500 in free food & drinks banked now)

I find myself agreeing with Jim Cramer here ... which happens, from time to time.
Remember the irrational exhuberance going into the Dot Com Crash (Pets.Com!), the Housing Bubble (5 houses on NINJA loans!), and now this.
Remember when you start seeing day-trading ads and services on TV and people start buying into the mania thinking they can't ever lose and that markets only go in one direction (up) that it's time to start inching closer toward the fire exit. As Jeremy Irons' character from 'Margin Call' said, "it's not panic if you're the first one out the door."
What is particualrly disturbing is the 'gamification' of investing by platforms like Robinhood that conflate longterm "investing" for wealth-building and retirement planning with "trading".
My investment portfolio is downright boring compared to most people, and I'm fine with that. It's also why I don't believe in the indices or do index-based investing -- because they're so heavily influenced by a single-digit's worth of ultramegacorps and don't reflect broader equity sentiments.

You’ve identified the storyline here. What remains is how will the story end? With a bang or a whimper? And when? Those who’ve seen the last 15 minutes of this movie aren’t letting on - if they know. It’s tempting to forecast a 50% drubbing of the stock market in short order. The “smart money“ waiting in the wings awakens and moves into stocks at sharply lower prices. A happy ending for the forgotten few who resisted the temptation to own equities and held out long enough. Right out of Disney.
Equally likely are an alternative set of scenarios.
- A very long multi-year (even multi-decade) “rolling” decline to normal valuations with alternating good and bad years. Patient investors can still make money in such an environment - but would require more insight and ingenuity than simply buying the index.
- A rotational correction where the big overvalued names fall while the undervalued equity sectors gain. Financials have lagged. And while one might think the energy, commodity, natural resource sectors overvalued after a recent surge, truth be told those areas are just emerging from the worst decade long bear market in history.
- Correction by stagnation. Equities essentially go nowhere for a decade or longer while the dollar sags, global interest rates rise, and the CPI , real assets, real estate climb in value. Even without a sharp decline, equities would have returned to more normal valuations relative to the dollar and other asset classes over a decade or so.
- Black swans. War, domestic upheaval, shifts in the global balance of power, plagues, environmental catastrophe can all upend an economy and jolt markets leading to different end results than anyone anticipated.
.

Good morning Old_Skeet: You may have nailed it with your explanation from above.
Friday's close & my account was flat lined ! 0.00 % gain.
Better than a -0.4 loss on Thursday.
Fridays close below
DJIA
27,930.33 +190.60 (+0.69%)
NASDAQ
11,311.80 +46.85 (+0.42%)
S&P 500
3,397.16 +11.65 (+0.34%)
Russell 2000
1,552.48 -11.83 (-0.76%
Have a good weekend , Derf

Hi guys.
Politics aside.
My perspective (and thinking) on the stock market follow.
A little more on the barometer that will help explain what is now taking place within the S&P 500 Index which it follows. And, why this might be of concern. Over the past couple of weeks the big ten stocks that make up about 28% of the Index (as a group) have increased in their value while a good number of the underlying stocks have decline in their value. As of last week's market close 79% of the stocks wiithin the Index were trading above thier 50 day moving average and at the close of this week the number had declined to 66%. In addition, over the past two weeks there has been money moving out of the Index according to my money flow indicator, which moved from a reading of 84 to 52.
So, explain why the Index has moved upward in price over the past two weeks from 3851 (8/7 market close) to 3397 (8/21 market close) and reached a new high. It is very simple, the top ten stocks (as a group) have done most of the heavy lifting to propell the Index to it's new high while a good number of the underlying stocks have been in decline. The rise in the big ten (as a group) has been more than enough to offset the decine in the underlying (as a group) thus the price of the Index moved upward. After all, this is a cap weighted Index.
In the past, with a decline in money flow along with a good number of stocks moving from above to below their 50 day moving average has often times indicated that a stock market dip (or pull back) is in the making due to a decline in broad based support along with money leaving. This could be because of political convention activity and investors reacting to it by voting with their wallets through the selling of securities. In addition, there was a big increase in short volume in SPY on Friday.
So, what did Old_Skeet do? Absolutely nothing. I am still with my current asset allocation of 15/45/40 (cash/bonds/stocks). For the past five years (since retirement) I have been reconfiguring my portfolio from a growth allocation type which was as high as 10/20/70 down to the present all weather allocation of 20/40/40 which also affords some good income production. If I were to sell I'd be reducing my paycheck. In addition, I've got ample cash to put some into play during a stock market sell off. Presently, due to low cash yields and streached equity valuations I am overweight in bonds by +5%. For now, though, I'm mostly just sitting and watching.
Thanks for stopping by and reading.
Take Care ... Be Safe ... and, Have a Good Weekend!
Old_Skeet

@soaring - PRGTX, PRMTX, WAMCX and AKREX have all been winners for me. FCNTX is a fund my parents have held for decades and are really pleased with it. WAMCX is closing to new accounts on 9/11, here’s a recent MFO thread on its closing:
https://mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/56704/wasatch-ultra-growth-fund-wamcx-wgmcx-to-close-to-new-investors#latest
I hold these funds because they've outpaced their benchmarks. I'm younger than you so my risk tolerance may be higher than yours. Best wishes!

@soaring,

VGWLX - I recently discovered that this fund is not available for automatic investment at Fidelity. As I don't want to pay $75 TF for every addition, this one is likely to go.

I just checked with Fidelity, VGWLX is open to new investors, then you should able to buy more through automatic investment ($5/buy) as I have done many times on other transaction fee funds. Have you confirm this with a representative ?
The other option is to transfer part of the tax-deferred account to Vanguard and that would eliminate the restriction. I used to do the same with T. Rowe Price funds until T. Rowe Price made their funds available on no-transaction fee platform at Fidelity and Vanguard. Much easier to manage.

Thx...
We picked up GM, bought fordbonds ytm 7.07% rated bb+ never bankruptcybefore, added more to vanguard wellington and vang2045, also got new commodities-silver bars...
For mama portfolio - bought more fidelity2020 and fbnd bnd pci...she is complaining making too much from portfolio last yr and paying more to uncle Sam this yr lol...I guess something is heading right directions. I told her If something drastic happens to 2021 election may not be a rosey pictures in terms of capital gains /stocks bonds performance/and taxations changes 2021

Exciting New Territory for the S&P 500
It's going to be even more exciting when the S&P reenters familiar old territory.

Hi Derf, According two a couple of feeds in my barometer they have reflected over the past couple of days a softening and from past history this has often reflected that a dip (decline of 0% to 5%) or even a pull back (decline of 5% to 10%) perhaps even a correction is in the making. To me, this makes some sence due to political convention activity. We shall see. As I write the futures are down in most risk on asset classes. I not looking for an up day in the market as it is Friday and most traders will close out their open positions rather than carrying them open over the weekend. This is Old_Skeet's scientific wild ass guess (SWAG) so no gurantees on the above are made. My account was down -0.06% (6/100ths).

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Howdy,
In our taxable account, it's all about being a TAXABLE ACCOUNT. We have a few funds such as PRPFX, SGDLX and FMHTX. Otherwise, it's dividend paying stocks of companies with whom we do business. CMS (2.7%), T(7.0%), VZ (4.2%), DTE (3.5%), etc. One exception is NCV (10.4%). We own that in EVERY account we can. It's all about the yield and NCV is the best I have found and have been owning it for decades. It's a secret though, so don't tell anyone. I want dividends and minimal taxes.
good luck and wear the mask,
rono

Schwab shows that following:
DJIA
27,739.73 +46.85 (+0.17%)
NASDAQ
11,264.95 +118.49 (+1.06%)
S&P 500
3,385.51 +10.66 (+0.32%)
Russell 2000
1,564.30 -7.77 (-0.49%
My account resulted in(-.4%)
This isn't the first time being negative after an up day. I was wondering if other MFOers have the same results in their accounts from time to time ?
Looking for a better Friday close , Derf

Hi guys,
Politics aside.
As of market close today ... Old_Skeet's market barometer which follows the S&P 500 Index has experienced a softening in some of its feeds over the past few days. Enough for me to make this post. If you are short of cash within your portfolio and wish to position for a possible market dip of pull back then ... I'm thinking ... now might be a good time to raise some cash. No gurantees; but, I see the possibilty of a storm brewing. How big it might become is a guess.
For me, I'm about 15/45/40 (cash, bonds, stocks) so I'm sitting tight and not doing anything since I'm already position with enough cash to open an equity spiff if felt warranted.
Have a good evening.

Yes, FSMEX opened again on April 1, 2020
1 Yr 3 Yrs 5 Yrs 10 Yrs Life
26.36% 21.42% 18.37% 19.91% 15.23%

Thanks for that. I'll keep an eye on it.

The five — Ford, Honda, BMW, Volkswagen and Volvo — sealed a binding agreement with California to follow the state’s stricter tailpipe emissions rules.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/17/climate/california-automakers-pollution.html
One highly placed person feels that auto makers outside of these five will “produce far less expensive cars for the consumer, while at the same time making the cars substantially SAFER.” OTOH, "Stanley Young, a spokesman for California’s Air Resources Board, said the agreement achieved “continuous annual reductions in greenhouse gas emissions while saving consumers money.”
So which is it? Should someone looking at the auto industry invest in companies that make cars that may be less expensive off the shelf, or companies that make cars with potentially lower TCO, depending on miles driven, price of gas, etc.? (I ask this as someone who has put 3500 miles on our car since purchasing it three years ago.)
One benefit of the agreement is certainty for the five companies. Usually that's something the stock market likes.

“This represents consistency from a policy point of view,” said Bob Holycross, vice president for sustainability, environment and safety engineering with Ford.
“Whether it is from one political party to another or the changes from elections or what the makeup of Congress is, we have to have regulatory certainty beyond just political cycles governing the investments we make,” he said.

Thank you for your reply, msf, especially the information on the Africa ETF and the excellent references on PFICs.
I won't be circumventing any restrictions on making a purchase, and will answer all eligibility-to-invest questions honestly. This will limit me to funds set up to be offered to US persons. I have been finding out that that does reduce what is available to me substantially. Many funds have separate structures set up for selling to US and non-US persons, and some just don't sell to US persons at all, probably because of the draconian reporting requirements, which the IRS has managed to push non-US companies into complying with.
The language in the Sturgeon disclaimer is unclear, and I don't think they have that regional restriction, mostly because they know I'm in the US and they're talking with me. The disclaimer seems to say that they won't sell where selling is illegal, and they especially won't sell in the UK or US if selling is illegal there. I doubt that means to say that selling is illegal to US persons, or they wouldn't be talking with me. It's a website disclaimer, and I suspect that what it's getting at is that they can't sell on the basis of anything on the website, meaning that if I'm interested they'll send me a 100+ pages of more legalese to read before investing.
I don't think Sovereign Man (nor I for the purpose of choosing investments) cares about the historian's distinction between empire and nation state. What matters in this context is whether the US economy is sustainable for another ten to 20 years, and if it isn't, how that will affect my finances before I die. I agree that it is likely that the collapse of our economy will drag down the rest of the world. In that case, we're all cooked. But it's also possible that some other regions may be less affected, and if that happens, then one may benefit from owning something in those other regions.
I'm thinking that my new portfolio may come out looking something like:

• 17% US-based funds of US businesses (mutual/ETF)
  
• 17% Europe-based funds of Western European businesses (domiciled in Europe, denominated in euros/Swiss francs)
  
• 17% Asia-based funds of developed-market Asian businesses (domiciled in Asia, denominated in yen/yuan)
  
• 25% Emerging market funds (domiciled outside the US)
  
• 25% Frontier market funds (domiciled outside the US)

This is a strategy of diversification by both region and level of economic development. It's interesting that we can talk about the risk of investing in frontier markets because of the potential for political and economic instability and war. But is the US really still a bastion of security? It seems to me that there are some ways in which an investment in Tanzania or Uzbekistan may be safer that one in the United States.
When I look at the above list, I get scared. What if I make the wrong choices in the last two categories and lose half my nest egg? But when I ask that, the converse fear comes to mind. What if I keep my diversification entirely within the US and our system crashes under the weight of debt, disease, or war? Then I lose everything. That's scary too.
I think I may have found some partial answers to my third question, which was asking for websites that profile non-US mutual funds. I'm still reviewing these sites to see how much useful information I can find without paying exorbitant fees. From what I see so far, they mainly focus on "alternative" investments, which means private placements, hedge funds, etc., but also include emerging and frontier market funds.

• CitywireSelector
  
• Asia Asset Management
  
• Preqin
  
• BarclayHedge Awards
  
• HFM
  
• Investors Choice Awards

I'm interested in hearing from more people with information that supports or refutes what I'm saying, or that answers the three questions in my original post. Thanks guys, and thanks David for this great forum.