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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Eastman Kodak stock price surge
    LLSCX closed up 10.18% (or $1.85) tonight at $20.03 according to Schwab.
  • Eastman Kodak stock price surge
    Life After Death?
    Check out this info on Kodak from the Wall Street Journal, in another MFO thread.
  • Life After Death? Kodak Shifts Into Drug Production
    A current article in The Wall Street Journal is reporting that Kodak, with the help of a $765 million US Government loan, is metamorphosing into generic drug production. Following are pertinent abridged extracts from that article:

    Onetime photography leader is shifting into production of drug ingredients using a loan provided under the Defense Production Act
    Eastman Kodak Co. has won a $765 million government loan under the Defense Production Act, the first of its kind. The purpose: to help expedite domestic production of drugs that can treat a variety of medical conditions and loosen the U.S. reliance on foreign sources. Kodak’s loan has terms similar to a commercial loan and must be repaid over 25 years.
    The loan is from the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation, a government agency akin to a bank, the officials said. The loan is the first of its kind under the Defense Production Act, which the Trump administration has previously invoked to speed the production of Covid-19 related supplies such as ventilators.
    The onetime leader in photography sales is gearing up to produce ingredients for a number of generic drugs, including the antimalarial drug hydroxychloroquine that President Trump has touted in the treatment of coronavirus. Meanwhile, the U.S. is aiming to shift from relying on countries such as China and India, Kodak Chief Executive Jim Continenza and U.S. officials said. Mr. Trump in May issued an order allowing the DFC to financially support the “domestic production of strategic resources” for the coronavirus pandemic and “to strengthen any relevant domestic supply chains.”
    Kodak will produce “starter materials” and “active pharmaceutical ingredients” used to produce generic medicines. “We have a long, long history in chemical and advanced materials—well over 100 years,” Mr. Continenza said. He added that Kodak’s existing infrastructure allows the company “to get up and running quickly.” Kodak is effectively changing gears, expecting its pharmaceutical ingredients to make up 30% to 40% of its business over time, and expects the loan to create around 300 jobs in Rochester, and 30 to 50 jobs in Minnesota.
    For the U.S., the benefit of providing the loan to Kodak is to reduce reliance on other countries, particularly China, for drugs, DFC head Adam Boehler said: “We don’t ever want to be in a position, because of a pandemic, because of any reason,” that a foreign entity could upend U.S. access to medicines or pharmaceutical products".
    China is the world’s biggest supplier of the raw materials—known as active pharmaceutical ingredients—that form the basis of medicines. That dependence on China makes shortages more likely should Chinese manufacturing be shaken, according to a 2019 U.S. government report. China’s dominance is growing: The U.S. imported $3.9 billion worth of pharmaceutical raw material from China in 2017, an increase of nearly one-quarter from the prior year, according to IHS Markit.
    Rear Adm. John Polowczyk, who heads the White House’s supply-chain task force, said domestic drug production began shifting away from the U.S. in the 1970s, largely for reasons related to cost savings.
    Peter Navarro, the White House trade adviser, said “This is not about China or India or any one country. It’s about America losing its pharmaceutical supply chains to the sweat shops, pollution havens, and tax havens around the world that cheat America out of its pharmaceutical independence.”
    Personal comments-
    • I believe that this action, supported by President Trump and Peter Navarro, is absolutely in the national interest.
    RE: "domestic drug production began shifting away from the U.S... largely for reasons related to cost savings."
    • Right. And of course those "cost savings" are reflected in the moderate and affordable drug prices that we see today. Let's try "largely for reasons related to increased drug company profits, at the expense of the national interest."
  • FPA New Income, Inc. limited availability to new investors as of August 1, 2020
    If you want only funds that never lost money then performance could lag badly. PFNIX 10 years average annually is only 2% and that's a dismal bond performance.
    I'd suggest you might have a typo, but you've assured us that whatever was posted, you meant what you said and you said what you meant, your numbers are true, 100 percent.
    Still, given that PFNIX has only been around since 4/28/18, producing a 10 year average for that share class is a neat trick.
    If one were to extrapolate PFNIX returns based on the performance of other share classes, one might arrive at a 10 year average return of 3.57% as of June 30th. That's far better that your 2%. However the shares, had they existed, would have lost money in 2011, 2014, and 2015.
    Nor could it be that you conflated Pimco Low Duration Income Fund with Pimco Low Duration Fund, e.g. PTLDX. Because while the latter fund did average a bit over 2%/year over the past ten years, it too lost money. The annual performance graph below is from its prospectus.
    image
    If the game is simply to compare performance of funds that have never had a losing year.... AKRIX. I win! The metric in the quoted sentence was 10 year average annually. That would be 18.3%.
    Silly cherry picking game.
  • Gold future
    I didn’t mean to insinuate you did. I tried to answer your concerns thoughtfully about how oil impacts various commodity related funds. That’s all. Actually, you can go to M* or Lipper and look at the 1, 3, 5 year returns for those types funds if you’re looking for a short answer.
  • Gold future
    @Sven Exactly. Easy to make a profit in ANYTHING if you invest at the bottom.
    Corollary: Easy to lose money in ANYTHING if you invest at (or near) the top.
  • FPA New Income, Inc. limited availability to new investors as of August 1, 2020
    One reason maybe that AVEFX ''flies under the radar'' is it is not available at Fidelity or Schwab no load/NTF.

    In 2020 peak to trough AVEFX lost about 10% while FPINX lost only about 2%.
    AVEFX has 20% in stocks FPINX < 1%
    Vanguard VASIX is a better choice than AVEFX. See (
    chart). VASIX ER=0.11%. It has better performance and SD(volatility) is close.

    There may well be better choices for this TYPE of fund, but the criteria I was focusing on was never a down year. VASIX has had two, including down 10.53% in 2008. Not so pretty. AVEFX has an unbroken streak during its existence dating back to 2004.
    If you want only funds that never lost money then performance could lag badly. PFNIX 10 years average annually is only 2% and that's a dismal bond performance.
    AVEFX has a much better performance but 3.8-3.9% average annual return for 5-10 years are not good enough for me. At least VASIX performance annually is at 5.2-5.3% and Vanguard uses just indexes.
    My goals at retirement are 6+% average annually with SD < 3 + positive annually + never lose more than 3% from any last top.
  • Gold future
    Would oil be a drag on a commodity fund?
    Oil has been a tremendous boost for funds that invest in oil futures since the price went negative April 20. Over the past 3 months oil’s soared to over $40. I don’t even know how to compute such a phenomenal rate of return from -$30 to +$40. (maybe “a gazillion percent”?). The supposition behind @little5bee ‘s question must be that oil has entered bubble territory. :)
    All the “cards“ seem stacked against oil from a casual viewer’s vantage point. Fracking, electric cars, shared vehicles, wind and solar, global warming / ecological related restrictions. What’s interesting is that with air travel off 50-75% during the pandemic and carriers mothballing aircraft, the price of oil has hung in there. So you have the eventual resumption of air travel to look forward to. Also, not all oil derived products are burned as fuel. Asphalt used for paving is one example. Lord knows we have plenty of roads in need of rebuilding.
    There aren’t a lot of pure commodities funds. The ones that do exist play the futures markets thru derivatives. That’s expensive and risky. But who wants to take delivery or crude oil or lean hogs? I put a little in Invesco’s BRCAX shortly after oil fell below 0. This one’s the real McCoy as far as commodities funds go. The fund has done well since than. PRENX does not call itself a commodities fund. It invests in nat. resources, concentrated in refiners. Even its manager has suggested for at least 3 years now (in annual reports) that this fund is not currently a good investment, as he foresees a long bear market in the nat. resources area. I’m eager to read his next fund report to see if his thinking has changed any. PRAFX is as close as Price comes to having a commodities fund. It is less exposed to oil and appears to have a bit more in gold judging from its behavior.
    Disclosure: I own all 3 of the above mentioned funds.
  • No surprise: Morningstar screw-up
    I checked BRUFX this AM and found it to be listed at $582.78. Sometimes, I have noticed a change in mutual fund prices in checking prices before 7:00 pm eastern and then checking them again the following morning due to slow updates at M*. I'm not a paying subscriber at M* so it is something that I can live with. In addition, you can check a fund's price through it's fund company as well. Slow updates can be the result of a fund being invested in private placements which are more difficult to price over listed securities that trade on exchanges.
  • No surprise: Morningstar screw-up
    3 a.m. CDT Mstar shows $582.78.
    If Mstar shows 0.00% 1-day return, that is a signal to come back later, or look elsewhere.
    That's a VERY late update, and for my purposes, it does no good, because I'm looking and expecting to see the update in my "Portfolio Manager" list of holdings. THAT has NOT been updated. Harumph.
  • FPA New Income, Inc. limited availability to new investors as of August 1, 2020
    One reason maybe that AVEFX ''flies under the radar'' is it is not available at Fidelity or Schwab no load/NTF.

    In 2020 peak to trough AVEFX lost about 10% while FPINX lost only about 2%.
    AVEFX has 20% in stocks FPINX < 1%
    Vanguard VASIX is a better choice than AVEFX. See (
    chart). VASIX ER=0.11%. It has better performance and SD(volatility) is close.
    There may well be better choices for this TYPE of fund, but the criteria I was focusing on was never a down year. VASIX has had two, including down 10.53% in 2008. Not so pretty. AVEFX has an unbroken streak during its existence dating back to 2004.
  • No surprise: Morningstar screw-up
    3 a.m. CDT Mstar shows $582.78.
    If Mstar shows 0.00% 1-day return, that is a signal to come back later, or look elsewhere.
  • No surprise: Morningstar screw-up
    My holdings include BRUFX. M* shows it unchanged from the previous day, at $581.64. But elsewhere, I see it finishing today +$1.14, at $582.78..... So, Morningstar is convenient and wonderful--- unless it's wrong. Today, it's wrong... Which would make one think: what is RIGHT here? How does one know how reliable or unreliable it is, at any time, on any day.
    So, Morningstar is forever a "definite maybe."
  • Time to get jiggy with VWIGX?
    There's been some talk, largely positive, e.g. Feb 2019 thread on int'l funds and the thread this month on swaps that paid off where some people wrote of swapping into this fund.
    I've been taking a close look at this fund. You're looking at it as a somewhat lateral move from domestic to foreign. My interest is in moving foreign holdings a bit more toward the growth side. (Call that capitulation to growth if you will, but I'm viewing it as broadening my portfolio.)
    When I look through blend/growth foreign large cap funds, a couple that keep turning up are BGESX (unavailable to retail investors) and SCVEX. One can get the lead managers of each of these at 40% of the cost (less with Admiral shares) with the Vanguard fund.
    VWIGX has a fair amount of EM. For those who prefer to manage their own allocations, this can be problematic. For those who prefer delegating some asset allocation to their fund managers, the EM holdings are a good thing.
    Cost is great, performance has been great. Much (not all) of that is due to this being a heavily leaning growth fund. That makes it high risk (does not do well in bear markets, and M* classifies it as high risk in what is already a high risk category). VWIGX can be purchased at various brokerages, albeit with a TF. VWILX must be purchased directly through Vanguard AFAIK.
    So I've also been looking at other funds with a fair amount of EM, but blend rather than growth - with commensurately lower past performance and lower risk. Can't beat Vanguard on cost, though.
    HDVYX - value leaning blend fund, submanaged by Wellington. A bit cheaper than most.
    PSILX - straight down the middle blend fund (of funds). Has a small slice of PRIDX, a closed fund.
    MDIDX - a growth leaning blend fund (of funds).
  • Time to get jiggy with VWIGX?
    I'm liking this fund. VWIGX has had nice YTD performance and a great track record...International Large Cap seems to be unloved compared to US Large Growth. It has a low ER (.43)...ranks in the top 5% of the category for trailing returns (for every time frame from 1 month through 15 years).
    Not mentioned much here at MFO...I wrote this back in 2016...might be worth a review:
    https://mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/54980/favorite-over-seas-funds/p1
  • Gold future
    The dollar’s tanking after decades of strength. Some of that relates to the Fed’s recent printing spree and some to our dismal failure dealing with Covid. Reminds me of the scattered bits I can recall from the late 60s and early 70s - several years before inflation really took off. Dollar down. Gold up. Repeat. Repeat. Nixon imposed wage and price controls in ‘70 or ‘71, although inflation wasn’t bad at that point compared to what it would be a few years later.
    It’s not rocket science. We normally work for, trade in and buy things with dollars. When the value of the dollar falls, the price of what we buy goes up. However, the linkage isn’t real direct. Takes time for supply chains and consumer expectations to catch up. So don’t expect things to cost more tomorrow than today. In addition, the monkey wrench that is Covid has the economic picture so distorted now that it’s hard to get a good fix on relative valuations.
    As for gold, I’ve seen it rise - and I’ve seen it fall - many times over my 70+ years. Pretty stuff too. It runs more on emotion than on fundamentals - although the fundamentals are currently in its favor. Some will get rich this time around. And some will get greedy and loose a fortune when the tide turns.
    From Disney’s Beauty and the Beast: “A tale as old as time ...”
    Just an added thought here - Conventional wisdom often links gold’s price increase with the current inflation rate. That’s a long stretch and normally not the case. Gold tends to move in sharp rapid movements like we’re witnessing. So at any given time, it’s racing ahead of or trailing inflation. Just a rough guess - but gold bullion looks to be up 20-25% over the past year. Miners are more volatile with many mining funds up 40% or more in the past year. Bad as inflation has been, it’s not running at 40% annually. However, over very long time frames it’s likely gold’s as good an indicator of the long-term inflation rate as would be real estate, lumber, tomatoes or coffee. Personally, I’ve some limited gold exposure, but I feel safer playing around the edges. Many real asset / commodity funds provide limited exposure to gold as does PRPFX. Some of the EM funds are nice indirect plays on the metals as well.
  • Things that make me go hmmm...
    Federal police...it's just political to gin up support....remember all the bazillions of caravans heading to USA way back when... can't use that to scare people anymore so had to come up with something new.... RIOTERS, ANARCHIST replaced caravans. Are you scared? I am... police won't respond for 5 days and 911 is going away according to the scare commercials I've seen... SMH ... and people buy it, THAT'S what's scary....
  • Leuthold: EM as a tactical holding
    EM countries are not a well defined class. You have to decide which collections of countries you're interested in when you select an "emerging markets" fund, whether active or passive.
    Obviously, the inclusion or exclusion of smaller economies won't make a big difference in investment performance. But whether one includes a country like Korea can have a sizeable impact. David Snowball writes: "Over the past 3 months, Vanguard EM and the NASDAQ composite have both risen 21%."
    VEMAX tracks a FTSE index that excludes Korea. Over the past three months (through July 24), VEMAX returned 22.07%, while FPADX, tracking the MSCI EM index including Korea returned just 21.37%. It should be noted that each underperformed its respective benchmark by almost a half percent.
    The S&P Emerging BMI index (see Appendix A) has the same countries as the MSCI index except it excludes Korea. The NASDAQ index likewise excludes Korea but also excludes several other countries. (See p. 25 of the NASDAQ methodology.)
    Here's a 2016 piece, in part explaining Why South Korea Remains Classified As An Emerging Market by MSCI.
    I appreciate @Rbrt 's giving the source of the quoted material. A link would be even more helpful. With that, one can check how current the text is (the MSCI data is current). This matters because indexes periodically add and drop countries. Also, this enables one to see that the paragraph about "other sources" was direct from The Balance.
    That paragraph doesn't have any footnotes giving sources. Worse, the paragraph says that these are another eight countries. But two of them (Argentina and Saudi Arabia) are not additional. Even with these, only seven countries are named (assuming Hong Kong can be regarded as a separate country). Given that MSCI moved Argentina and Saudi Arabia from Frontier Markets to Emerging Markets in May 2019, their continued presence in the paragraph could be the result of poor editing. I don't have a guess as to which other country was dropped, since the page doesn't give sources.
    The bottom line is that EM is to some extent whatever you think it is. Given that, one must be careful in comparing returns, or even saying what's included in "the" index.
  • FPA New Income, Inc. limited availability to new investors as of August 1, 2020
    Tom Atteberry is a Portfolio Manager of the flagship FPA New Income fund. Atteberry brings us up to speed on conditions in the bond market, and how they have changed since Covid-19.
    Atteberry will also share his One Investment recommendation with us – it might surprise you!