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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Russell 2000/IWM in Bear Market
    While some indexes rallied to the yearend (DJIA, Nasdaq Comp), other indexes peaked around November 8, 2021. Now, Russell 2000/IWM is in the bear territory. Don't even ask about the EMs that peaked in mid-February 2021. All major indexes are below 200-dMA except DJ Utilities - what's up with that? AAII Sentiment is very negative - the most bearish in about 9 years. This week had volatile swings in the market. May be the market is trying to form a base or bottom.
    LINK
    image
  • Rondure Global Advisors 2021 4th quarter commentary
    @LewisBraham : +1 Everyone loves a winner, especially when it comes to money won & lost !
    Trying to enjoy the ride, Derf
  • Rondure Global Advisors 2021 4th quarter commentary
    Both funds are beating their track records as of 12/31 so I don't know what the problem is. If you are watching the performance every day or week, you are doing this wrong.
  • Getting off the sidelines - when?
    For those waiting on better valuations to buy Equities, at what point would you be a serious Buyer? Do you have a specific plan in place?
    What about Bonds (yeah, what about Bonds) - are any type/class of bonds worth holding in 2022?
    Current S&P 500 PE Ratio: 25.85
    Mean: 15.96
    Median: 14.88

    If you are on the sidelines congrats. Don’t see much fear in this market just everyone wanting to buy the dips. A lot of complacency. I guess that is what the past twelve years have conditioned investors to do. Should we actually get something more than a garden variety correction ala late 2018 and February/March 2020 would use a Zweig momentum buy signal to get back in. Worked like a charm after those two brief sell offs as well as the longer bear of 2008.
    As for bonds the scary consensus is buy floating rate/bank loan funds as they are the place to be during periods of rising short term rates. Can’t argue with that ( and I have an allocation there) other than it seems a bit too pat and overwhelmingly embraced. If you get a really bad bear market in stocks/junk bonds, the floating rate/bank loan category will not protect you,
    Without drilling deeper for month end distribution dates, month end NAV movements are always tricky to make sense of for fixed income OEFs but I see across the board both high yield and floating rate / bank loan funds are down on Thursday. It has been a long time since I have seen that happen. I hope this is not the start of something.
  • TRP ridiculousness
    A phone number for Registered Representatives is provided for Flagship Services customers.
    Although dedicated representatives were previously available, I've heard that Vanguard
    no longer offers this level of service.
    I’ve found service is much better when you have a dedicated representative. I’m wondering how long the average hold time at Vanguard Flagship Services is?
  • TRP ridiculousness
    Vanguard customers enrolled in Voyager Select Services or Flagship Services (not sure about others) will have phone numbers listed on their
    statements. Here's a link with phone numbers for various Vanguard investors.
    Link
    Are these general numbers to Voyager Select/Flagship Services? I’ve found it very helpful to have a direct phone number and email to my representative. I’ve had 2 dedicated representatives (one was
    promoted) and they were/are both great.
  • TRP ridiculousness
    Vanguard and FIDO were ready mid-January
    some brokerage houses invest in mighty computer resources to crunch their numbers
    Surely you're not suggesting that Vanguard mightily invests in computer resources :-)
    Chairman Tim Buckley said Vanguard was spending more than $1B on technology in 2019.
    Yet, customers continue to report sporadic technical issues on a regular basis.
    It appears that Vanguard may not be earning good returns on its technology investments!
    Here's Vanguard's technology spin presented in a recent article:
    “Vanguard has accelerated efforts and increased investments to improve our technology and deliver an even better experience for our retail clients, plan sponsors and participants, and financial advisors. We’re actively exploring and implementing new technologies, resources and capabilities to drive innovation, improve stability and resiliency, build efficiencies and lower operation costs across our firm.”
    Yeah, right...
    Link
  • The Case for Vanguard
    "New Vanguard doesn’t look much like old Vanguard.
    Whether it’s selling advice, launching high-conviction active funds only for advisory clients, or offering private equity, it is different.
    "What’s also different is that many longtime observers have now begun to question the company. Morningstar’s John Rekenthaler proposed that Vanguard has lost its way, while the Wall Street Journal’s Jason Zweig charged it in at least one instance with failing the small investors whom Vanguard founder Jack Bogle championed."
    "Negative sentiments rest on two pillars: industry rivalries’ corrosive influence and present-day Vanguard falling short of its former self. Despite some merit, both pillars struggle to bear the weight placed upon them."

    Link
  • TRP ridiculousness
    funny! My classmate used a Commodore 64. I was still on electric typewriter, through grad school.
    https://media.gettyimages.com/photos/the-commodore-64-december-17-1984-picture-id1079862398?s=612x612
  • Grandeur Peak's 4th quarter 2021 quarterly letter
    @MikeM, I can not reconcile your first paragraph and against the paragraph from the Q4 letter I had quoted. I am not looking for any reply / response. We have different expectations. I see what I see and shared. I am not looking to convince anybody.
    In case my prior posts on GP and other managers did not make it obvious, I hire active fund managers for their business. I am not concerned about short term results. Since you mentioned about YTD results, you can look up GUSYX - M* says 25 percentile performance. I mention GUSYX because it is easy to see in it the paragraph I quoted. GISYX happens to be 8 percentile.
    Years ago, Fund X made a mistake and when some of us asked for more information, they were dismissive about it. I was a novice investor at that time but I did not like their business practice and withdrew my investment. Others while were irritated by the fund’s FU mentality, stuck around. I never looked back at Fund X Co. As I said, I am not pulling my investment from GP but i am not increasing my investment. If I am not able to increase my investment to 5-10% of my PV, I liquidate. I go up to 40% of my PV. Making a temporary exception for GP.
  • TRP ridiculousness
    Wow, top of the (initial release) line!
    https://en-academic.com/dic.nsf/enwiki/18042
    Could one even buy a used Model 50 in 1975 (when Vanguard was founded) or later?
    My mother programmed on the S\360 Model 30. She also ran sysgen's for the OS.
  • Revisiting Retirement Drawdown Strategy
    It will be nice to track this strategy as we hit draw downs in the upcoming weeks, months, years...
    Developing a strategy for managing your transition from “Accumulation” to “Drawdown” is critical. It’s a huge shift in your investment strategy, and it’s not something you should approach without a plan. Today, we’ll revisit our original retirement drawdown strategy and analyze how it’s worked since our retirement in 2018.
    revisiting-our-drawdown-strategy
  • TRP ridiculousness
    Some institutions provide investment account 1099s slightly early, i.e. in the fourth week of January. Vanguard sent me email yesterday (Jan 26th) saying my 1099 was available online. Though Fidelity originally said that it would provide the 1099 for my taxable account on Jan 22nd, it now says that I should check back on Feb 12 for a new date.
    Years ago institutions had to send all 1099s out by Jan 31. As investments and tax laws became more complicated, this led to an increasing number of corrected 1099s being generated. More taxpayers wound up needing to file amended returns. So some deadlines were extended to February 15. (See, e.g. Notice 2009-11 extending a 1099 deadline starting with TY 2008.)
    Beating the deadline by a few days is not necessarily a good thing. Better to get it right the first time than to risk having to correct it later.
    FWIW, each year several T Rowe Price funds delay reporting until Feb 15. These are its real estate funds and also its small cap value (PRSVX) fund. My wild guess on the latter is that it sometimes reports non-zero amounts of Section 1250 gain. For its other funds, TRP says "late January".
    https://www.troweprice.com/personal-investing/resources/planning/tax/preparation/tax-mailing-schedule.html
  • Grandeur Peak's 4th quarter 2021 quarterly letter
    @BaluBalu, aren't small cap global, especially small cap "growth" funds that may even hold some amount of EM, inherently volatile? There is no fund that navigates every economic condition, but over time the GP group has navigated better than most. There is no management team or fund-house that can "time" the market nor should they try. I personally wouldn't want my global growth fund to suddenly change it's style to something else. These aren't alternative funds that have that flexibility.
    Just a different opinion.
    The GP funds appear to be right in the mix of all other funds of their style for volatility and YTD return. Even the esteemed Wasatch funds, ie. WAGOX, has had a rough start to 2022. Worst than the GP fund I own, GPGOX.
    I took a quick look at random Global Small-Mid Growth funds. here are some #s YTD:
    GPGOX -13.3%
    WAGOX -17.2
    KGDAX-12.2
    OBEGX -18.1
    GLNAX -11.8
    Personally, I wouldn't exchange my 5* GPGOX for any of these.
  • Grandeur Peak's 4th quarter 2021 quarterly letter
    @BaluBalu :
    Of the (7) GP funds with records of 3 years as of semi annual report date Oct 31 2021,
    five have returns that are fairly close. The other 2, GPEIX & GPIIX trail. Both of these two were their first launches.
    The 5 year returns also echo the same, both trail.
    But as anyone knows this could turn around !?
    Enjoying the ride, Derf
  • TRP ridiculousness
    Meanwhile, I'm still waiting for TRP to post my 1099 online. Vanguard and FIDO were ready mid-January, but when Price says end of January, they mean it literally!
  • Just one day, but more "red" than I've seen for awhile.....
    The US is pretty red and between 1.5 to 2% down as of 1 AM EST.
  • Federal Open Mouth Committee
    Depending on the extent of damage I’d expect some of the FOMC members to be out publically talking their game plan, whatever it is, and trying to prop-up any teetering markets. They’ve been sidelined in the days leading up to this week’s meeting,
    “Blackout Periods Federal Reserve policy limits the extent to which FOMC participants and staff can speak publicly or grant interviews during Federal Reserve blackout periods, which begin the second Saturday preceding a Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting and end the Thursday following a meeting unless otherwise noted.” Source
  • Just one day, but more "red" than I've seen for awhile.....
    Thanks for the links @Catch22.
    Might be helpful to consolidate the 2 “red” threads? Here’s a a more recent one..
    Likely to remain the color of the day for a while.