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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • EM Review: Stocks Soared by Most in 8 Years on Signs of Growth
    I really like MIOPX. Its not pure EM but that helps mitigate its risk. Its about 35-40% EM and the rest developed foreign markets.
  • EM Review: Stocks Soared by Most in 8 Years on Signs of Growth
    NEWFX & DWGAX Combined these two funds make up about 5% to 6% of Old_Skeet's portfolio. NEWFX is a growth oriented fund while DWGAX is a more of an equity income fund that provides for some growth.
  • Just when you think the market is overpriced
    @Baseball_Fan, Thanks for the shout-out. David mentioned Rondure Funds in his February, 2019
    Commentary. Just a bit here: “Rondure Global Advisors is newer investment adviser which is Grandeur Peak’s partner. Rondure, like Grandeur Peak, was launched by an alumna of the Wasatch Funds,” https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/2019/02/as-the-world-turns-rondure-global-gains/
    Global equity funds are pretty far outside my normal investment zone. But I am now beginning to shade a bit more in that direction, since funds holding fixed income (like traditional balanced funds) are at a real disadvantage in this low rate environment. Also, I’ve been trying to get out of the U.S. (figuratively and literally) as I think we’re headed for a lot of chaos as November approaches - markets might not like it. U.S. appears “bubbly” as well.
    My first foray into any pure equity fund in many years was into Price’s developed foreign markets index fund, PIEQX, which I picked up in March and have already reduced by 30 or 40%. While it hasn’t leaped very far, all my other stuff has, and this one is the easiest to cut back on as its a spec position and not part of my normal allocation. It’s not a high octane fund by any measure. But the ER of .40 is appealing and TRP - much as I like them - have never excelled in the international arena. Past experience leads me to believe that, as international funds go, this one is relatively docile.
    You mention ROSOX. Let’s take a look. ER 1.10% isn’t bad for an actively managed international fund. Probably about average. Holdings: 60% Europe, 30% Asia - almost all of that in Japan. (Looks quite a bit like the index fund I own.) ROSOX is only 3 years old. That would normally chase me away - but it appears from David’s commentary that the managers are well experienced. Close call. I’d feel better with a fund that had been around at least 10 years. Better chance of having a stable investor base. The fund has already jumped about 10% from its March low. Not as cheap as it was than. (Woulda, coulda, shoulda.) Lipper gives it a 5 in “preservation.” That’s a coveted rating, as international funds tend to be more volatile than their domestic brethren. Not a bad choice. I’d perhaps look around a bit more before deciding.
    Now, will folks more familiar with international equity funds and / or Rondure please chime in?
  • EM Review: Stocks Soared by Most in 8 Years on Signs of Growth
    https://business.financialpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/stocks-soar-by-most-in-eight-years-on-signs-of-growth-em-review
    EM Review: Stocks Soared by Most in 8 Years on Signs of Growth
    Bloomberg News Lilian Karunungan, Netty Ismail and Justin Villamil
    June 5, 2020 4:28 PM EDT
    Last Updated June 8, 2020 1:36 AM EDT
    /(Bloomberg) — Emerging-market stocks posted their biggest gains in more than eight years last week as investors looked past U.S.-China tensions and protests in America to focus on the rolling back of economic lockdowns. Better-than-expected U.S. jobs data on Friday helped solidify the new-found optimism over economic growth. Developing-nation currencies posted their biggest weekly advance since March 2016./
    What are your favorite em funds or etf
    We have adding/Dca continously to Vwo and Vt past few weeks.
  • Just when you think the market is overpriced
    By Old_Skeet's mythology the S&P 500 Index is extremely overbought. I'm now leaning towards trimming my equity allocation now that I'm pretty close to getting back towards even.
    Can stocks go hgher? Absoutely. And, I hope they do!
  • Why Many People Misunderstand Dividends, and the Damage This Does
    One of the many things to dislike about ML is that when they show unrealized gain/loss (PONAX down -4.35% since you bought it long ago, wtf) you have to go to view tax lot details to see cumulative investment return and find the total client investment and hence loss to date of -2.55%.
    Maybe this is good accounting, and maybe it's how some other places do it, but not Fido, and it's a minor pain for someone slightly savvy, and downright misleading for others pondering 'Huh, should I sell this thing?'
  • Why Many People Misunderstand Dividends, and the Damage This Does
    Hi, guys.
    This was a flagged discussion. The argument was that apkmetro plagiarized a Wall Street Journal article with only the sort of tweaks that a college sophomore could imagine getting away with. As I checked their homepage, their business model appears to depend on copying stuff from behind paywalls and posted tweaked versions.
    It's pretty bad. I'd prefer we not associate with, much less encourage, them.
    That said, johnN is pointing us to an article that makes valuable points, as the Journal often does. My compromise with my conscience is to share (a) the link to the legit story, (b) the intro paragraph and (c) the point of the article.
    Alex Edmans, Why Many People Misunderstand Dividends, and the Damage This Does https://wsj.com/articles/why-many-people-misunderstand-dividends-and-the-damage-this-does-11591454292, Wall Street Journal, 7 June 2020.
    Dr. Edmans is a professor of finance at London Business School.
    Over the past year, voices across the corporate and political spectrum have argued that companies are beholden to all stakeholders, not just shareholders. And indeed, many companies are recognizing these responsibilities in the current pandemic, with several paying furloughed workers and donating products. Investors have largely supported those efforts. But when it comes to corporate responsibility, there’s one red line that many shareholders say should never be crossed: the dividend.
    • companies are so manic about protecting their dividend that they're willing to cut workers in order to preserve it
    • dividends don't benefit investors because they're simply pulling money out of the company and lowering its share price
    • stock buybacks are different, and better, because buybacks are more flexible. You can execute them when it makes sense (Snowball laughs out loud given the transparent record of buying back overvalued shares in order to prop them up) and skip other years. Dividends are sort of a permanent entitlement.
    • in consequence, companies do stupid things to guard the dividend, investors overpay for stocks offering a dividend (you can lose 2-4% per annum in total returns) and it encourages investor complacency because they see dividend-payers are "buy it and forget it" stocks.
    • solutions? Have reporting services focus on total return, not share price appreciation, stats and have companies treat all future dividends as "special dividends," that is, as one time payouts that will be resumed if and only if economic circumstances justify it.

    • David, with thanks to johnN
  • Just when you think the market is overpriced
    @hank: There is talk of infrastructure spending and it's been going on since the 2016 presidential campaign, thus my skepticism. In my view, the US is unwilling to invest in infrastructure projects that don't pay for themselves. The wonderful high-speed trains in Europe and Asia do not make money, but they make for great travel and they preserve the environment. California's effort to build an HS train route has been trashed by the same administration that promised infrastructure spending. Very few states appear willing to privatize their toll roads even though it makes perfect sense to do so. BTW, was Mobius partly responsible for the many signals in the past decade or so to buy emerging markets?
    Your comment on gold prompts me to say the physical gold we inherited in 2012 has had a "V" shaped recovery: it has gone from $1675 to $1275 and now back up to $1700+. It cost me more for the safe deposit box than my entire appreciation.
  • Changes to First Eagle Fund of America
    The fund is changing focus from opportunistic ("event driven") value investing to intrinsic value investing, and adding an explicit requirement that 65% of its portfolio be invested in income-producing securities. As it migrates its portfolio, it expects to have a lot of turnover.
    Managers (people) come and go, but I can't recall seeing a subadvisor (management company) resigning. Usually it's fired by the fund family running the fund. Here, the fund's long time (30+ years) managers, Harold Levy and David Cohen created the submanagement company that is "resigning". If they simply wanted to close up shop, First Eagle could have hired the remaining managers and not had to overhaul the fund. All in all, the "resignation" seems rather strange.
    The in-house managers assigned by First Eagle have at best limited experience managing funds. Albertini is a manager of FEBAX, but he's the junior one of four, with just over a year's experience there. First Eagle describes Gupta as an associate manager of SGENX, but he doesn't appear in the fund's prospectus. It's a similar situation with Christian Heck who is described as an associate manger of SGOVX, but isn't in the fund's prospectus. In short, no lead management experience, and little experience at a level senior enough to even merit a mention in a prospectus.
    High turnover, inexperienced management, virtually a new fund (new objective). Hard to find any reason to consider this fund.
  • CATL - The Million Mile EV Battery Maker
    Other EV News:
    Move over, Tesla Inc., another environmentally friendly vehicle maker is stealing your sunshine. Shares of Nikola Corp. leapt as much as 71% to a record in its third day of trading on the Nasdaq after a reverse merger with VectoIQ Acquisition Corp.
    electric-truck-company-called-nikola-surged-71-in-its-third-day
  • Changes to First Eagle Fund of America
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/906352/000093041320001580/c95954_497.htm
    Changes are in Investment Objective, Investment Strategy, Portfolio Manager Team, Advisory Fee Rate and Expense Limitations of the Fund, and Resignation of Subadviser
  • CATL - The Million Mile EV Battery Maker
    A “trigger point” for electric cars will occur once they overtake gasoline-powered vehicles around 2030-2035, Zeng said. That view is more ambitious than that of researchers such as BNEF, which expects the shift to take place a few years later.
    CATL, which is adding a production facility in Germany, is set to make more than 70% of batteries required by BMW, an early customer, Zeng said. CATL also works with Volkswagen’s Audi unit and is cooperating with Porsche, he said.
    a-million-mile-battery-from-china-could-power-your-electric-car
  • Gold stocks vs gold: it's rocket time
    Hi Vintage,
    Hope you're doing well and being safe.
    First off, I always maintain a couple of canaries to alert me to movement in the sector. Good or bad, this is where I like to play. Collecting coins for 65 years does things to you.
    I had purchases of ISVLF 1/30/19 @ .2231, 3/24/20 @ .2749, 4/6/20 @ .235. (currently @ .499)
    KOOYF 3/24/20 @ .16 (currently @ .255)
    TKRFF most recent on 4/6/20 @ .088 (currently @ .1405)
    Please keep in mind that these are penny silver mining stocks and you can rest assured that you will see massive volatility. It is COMMON to see 10% point swings in a day.
    And please let me repeat that the vast majority of precious metal mutual funds consist of mining stocks, albeit gold dominate. The bullion plays are mostly ETFs. Be very careful with bullion ETFs as they are taxable at collectible rates (i.e. keep them in deferred or exempt accounts). And I will mention again, I do not like bullion ETFs. Too many accounting issues that give me the creeps. For bullion, the first and foremost alternative is REAL PHYSICAL BULLION. Geez, go with bling is you must. For playing the sector, I like the mining stocks and over the years, silver has been my investment vehicle of choice. Originally per force as a GI bill econ major selling my restaurant stash into the Hunt Bros attempt to corner the market. Silver went up 10x to ~$50. Gold went up 2-3 to $850. Rono partied like a bloody maniac.
    I got into the miners during the Big Bonanza from 2002 to 2011. The leverage is enormous. I was buying Silver Wheaton between $2-4 per and it went to $43. ChaChing! My one and only Home Run.
    and so it goes,
    peace and flatten the curve,
    rono
  • Just when you think the market is overpriced
    here's a visual of those two 9/1 days, set against the backdrop of the nyse composite. only time will tell how etc etc.
    https://ishort.ink/6s5R
  • Steer Clear of Bonds
    Barron’s often features excerpted clips of investment advice from various forecasters. The following comes from this week’s magazine. I don’t know anything about the Aden forecast. The message provides food for thought. Will be interesting in the following months to see how correct they were. (No link / Transcribed from subscription)
    Steer Clear of Bonds The Aden Forecast: Money, Metals, Markets adenforecast.com
    ”June 4: Interestingly, interest rates are starting to rise. The 30-year yield is leading the way. It’s above its 15-week moving average, at a three month high, and the 10-year yield is following. We’ve been showing you how oversold interest rates have been, which means they’re poised to head even higher, especially now that the rise is getting underway. This is going to coincide with an ongoing drop in bond prices, so continue to steer clear of all bonds for now.” *
    Barron’s June 8, 2020 (By Mary Anne and Pamela Aden)
    *There was additional short commentary on action in the U.S. Dollar index. It wasn’t directly related to the above, so I didn’t include it.
  • MOAT vs. DSEEX/DSENX
    Curious as to why VFINX has reclaimed YTD loss pretty much, while DSENX still have 5% to go. Anomaly, or has something broken in DSENX?
  • Wall Street next week
    https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/wall-street-next-week-202006071602
    Wall Street next week
    ANALYSIS | Published Jun 07, 2020 16:02 (+00:00)
    1. Markets cannot go higher on valid fundamentals
    We believe the short squeeze (soon) over and any good news MORE THAN built into markets. We also believe this is a time to be defensive rather than FOMO. Going forward economic activity caused by the pandemic should bottom out and a real recovery will happen, but one that is slow going and uneven. We see a U US economic recovery but stock markets NOT V, L or U but W.
    There is very high risk in the market now until late Summer.
    IT IS TIME TO PROTECT/EXIT especially above 3150 SPX.
    POST SUMMER INVESTMENTS SHOULD BE TARGETED FOR A POST COVID-19 WORLD
    Couple fundamental points for next wk
  • David Giroux interview on buying during the selloff
    (Cue the Forrest Gump impersonation:) Some here might remember the saga: we wanted to move wifey's 403b at a former employer and just convert it to a Trad IRA with VLAAX. It took them 3 months to even acknowledge that we exist (by mail) to tell us that a request had been made to the old custodian to transfer the money. THEN, we received a 2nd letter from Value Line telling us they were going to try a 2nd request to the old custodian. ("You know why it didn't go through the first time, you geniuses? Because the money isn't THERE any longer!")
    Yes, after a couple of MONTHS, we went with Bruce BRUFX. Fast, quick, efficient, done.
    "And that's all I have to say about THAT."
    ********************************************
    And honestly, the one whose money is already in DODBX? She's got it on cruise control, uninterested in doing any new paperwork with a new fund family. You can lead a horse to the water, but...
    Here's Sam Browne with a hot and spirited version of George and Dhani Harrison's song, "Horse To The Water."
  • David Giroux interview on buying during the selloff
    @hank: Thanks for the reply. After reading your reply I do remember seeing some of your moves on MFO. I purchased two allocation funds mentioned here, SFAAX & VLAAX & bought VWINX at Vanguard. StaySafe, Derf
    @Derf - Sorry for delayed response. I’m aware you were buying back than and either called the bottom or came darn close. I’m looking now at what you picked up. Lipper rates SFAAX quite high except expenses. I like that it has a long track record back to ‘86. VLAAX another pretty good choice, but another with high frees. VWINX is regarded as among the best in its class - but around 60% bonds. I was attempting (with limited success) to steer away from bonds back than. Don’t recall the reason. Possibly the Fed had already signaled their coming move to greater stimulus. That said, I do believe some income producing funds / assets are important to a balanced portfolio - unless of course you are very young. Sometimes it pays to act quickly. I didn’t buy after just a mere 1000-2000 Dow drop. But after 4,000 - 5,000 points down from around 29,500 it made sense to grab the net and start dipping.