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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Just one day, but more "red" than I've seen for awhile.....
    Not as many country "reds" as with the first post in this thread; but the "red" equity countries have much larger percentages down (as of 11pm, EST).
    Global Futures and Active/Open Markets
    NOTE: I'll add FINVIZ, mixed markets.
    I'll know the outcomes after 7 hours of pillow time.
    Remain curious,
    Catch
  • BIVIX
    BIVIX has done quite well for the 4 year period starting 201801 -- APR of 20.1 and MaxDD of 14.4. I picked 4 years because BIVIX is less than 5 years old.
    Screening for funds with a 4 year performance period starting 201801, APR of at least 20 and a MaxDD of 15 did not yield any funds in the Alt category. The closest I saw was SAPEX which has an APR of 17.7, MaxDD=14.6
    Some select life of fund stats vs. SP500
    APR 19.7 vs. 18.3 (impressive!)
    MaxDD 14.4 vs. 19.6 (again very impressive)
    Ulcer Index of 5.3 vs. 4.5
  • The Powell Put Revisited....
    Another suggestion that a Powell Put may well be slower to show up this time around even if the stock market buckles under the pressure...
    Jerome Powell stuck to one message Wednesday, that the economy is strong and inflation must come down. Harried stock traders thought they heard another one: you’re on your own.
    Jittery Markets Buckle as Powell Signals They Must Go It Alone
  • More RED this morning #2
    One of my trackers covers daily performance of 18 different funds & ETFs - none of which I own. Only 3 were green today. 15 were in the red. This covers a wide spectrum of asset classes and styles.
    The 3 green:
    BRCAX +.83% (commodities)
    HEGD +.11% (equity L / S)
    JHQAX +.12% (hedged equity)
    Biggest losers:
    SLV: -1.36% (silver bullion)
    TRREX: -1.30% (real estate)
    SWAN -.76% (hedged equity)
    TEMWX -.77% (global equity)
    What’s interesting is that most of the losses were slight. But the damage was widespread across asset classes. The 2 Hussman funds I track, HSGFX and HSTRX were both red as well.
    One fund (not on that list) that I own took the “prize” today. OPGSX (gold miners) lost 3.45%. The good news is the metals (of late) tend to be “Lucy Goosey” and follow no set pattern. Tomorrow’s another roll of the dice!
  • PRWCX Shakey Start to Year
    @MikeM : I'm thinking I'm more like a deer caught in the headlights ! Recently made a buy & then a day later looking to sell something else, growth, but couldn't pull the trigger !! Probably should start nibbling ?!
    Do you own GP Contrarian ?

    Hi @Derf. No, I never saw a reason to own more than 1 GP fund since I think they are all pretty similar with small tweaks in style (something David concluded also in one of his commentaries). The Contrarian Fund may be different to that thought - contrarian to that thought so to speak :) , but a minimal # of funds has been my goal the last couple years.
    I think Contrarian is different from the others. It is more of a small cap value fund with a lower PE. YTD, most of their funds are down a good bit, but Contrarian has performed differently, dropping much less. I would agree that the remainder of their funds perform similarly.
  • PRWCX Shakey Start to Year
    I can empathize. I was "hot" for PRWCX for many years. Finally I landed with an RIA who transferred 1 stock of TRAIX(instl version of PRWCX) to me! Yes I am a Giroux groupie!
  • PRWCX Shakey Start to Year
    I have to admit I'm slightly envious of long-term PRWCX investors.
    If anyone is disappointed with the fund's recent performance and is interested in liquidating their position, perhaps we can strike a deal? ;-)

    Hahahaha! Love this! Please add me to the list!
    Happy to transfer shares at $500 each!!! /ducks
  • PRWCX Shakey Start to Year
    I have to admit I'm slightly envious of long-term PRWCX investors.
    If anyone is disappointed with the fund's recent performance and is interested in liquidating their position, perhaps we can strike a deal? ;-)
    Hahahaha! Love this! Please add me to the list!
  • More RED this morning #2
    Notes from FOMC releases & Powell's press conference:
    Rate hikes will start soon (March). The fed fund rate will become the primary tool of Fed monetary policy. Expected will be gradual +0.25% rate hikes, but +0.50% hikes were not ruled out.
    The QEs will be reduced in February & should end in early-March.
    The Fed balance sheet reductions will start (around mid-year) after the rate hikes begin (in March) & will run in the background. The MBS will be gone faster & entirely at some point. The balance sheet will shrink substantially to a level needed for Fed operations.
    The labor market is very strong. The current inflation is also very high but is expected to decline. People on fixed-income are affected more by high inflation. Less fiscal stimulus is expected. The Fed will remain flexible in its policies & actions. The yield-curve is normal now & will be watched. It will be a year of tightening. Risks include high inflation, various threats to economic expansion, Covid-19 factors, supply-chain disruptions (that should gradually clear), Europe, etc.
    The stock market has been very volatile this week. It was up strong on Wednesday morning but turned down after the press conference.
    Additional statements were issues on 1) long-term monetary policy & strategies, 2) principles for Fed balance sheet reduction.
    LINK
  • More RED this morning #2
    “... somehow I don't think this will end well.”
    Yep. Nuts
    Just another bizarre day. Haven’t liked the market action for a while. Missed most of the Fed news today. Need to catch up. Powell’s mumbling something on Bloomberg … DKNG pulled back from +17% to only +9%. The DOW which has been up 300 points or more today is negative 50 as I write. Hmm …
    Gold’s getting mildly slammed today (off $33.00). But it’s still $1818 - far ahead of the $1700 it flirted with last year. I’m hanging on to DKNG this time around because I have some good hedges in place if all H breaks loose. As @Derf says “Enjoy the ride.” YOLO
    WTF?. The Dow fell another 300 while I was writing. Will need to write faster! ;)
    Pundits welcome!
  • PRWCX Shakey Start to Year
    By weekly or monthly peaks do you mean simply a rollup or summary of each week's values that shows the highest intraday (instantaneous) value achieved during that week? I'm not sure if that's what you're looking for since you add that intraday data is too noisy.
    Perhaps you're looking for easy access to each week's closing value. Then one could calculate a monthly peak as the highest of the weekly closes, much as one might calculate a monthly peak as the highest daily close over the month. Either way, this is filtering out some noise. In the former, one is filtering out even daily fluctuations. In the latter, one is filtering out only intraday fluctuations.
    Whatever. Here's Yahoo's weekly data for the S&P 500 (and its pre-1957 predecessor) going back to 1927. Since it gives both weekly instantaneous highs and weekly closes, it gives you whichever you're looking for. Digital, discrete. No analog charts, no mouseovers needed.
    Yahoo weekly historical S&P 500 data (Yahoo can also return monthly data rather than weekly data.)
    Unfortunately, not downloadable, likely due to licensing issues:
    Please note: This [download] feature is not available for all instruments due to data licensing restrictions, in which case the "Download" option is not present.
    https://help.yahoo.com/kb/SLN2311.html
  • PRWCX Shakey Start to Year
    I don't look at intra day numbers to define off high/low because intra day is way too noisy. Even daily is noisy imo and I would prefer weekly or monthly but I need to find a tool that allows me easy access to weekly and monthly peaks without whipping out the calculator and reading charts.
    SP500 is about 9% off its last peak so this isn't even technically a correction yet.
    The S&P 500 ended with a 0.3 percent gain, but not before plunging to a point where it was more than 10 percent below its Jan. 3 record. That kind of drop, called a correction, doesn’t happen often, and is a marker of investors’ souring attitudes toward stocks.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/24/business/economy/us-stock-market-correction-territory.html
    That was as of Jan 24th. Today the S&P 500 again dipped below its Jan. 3 peak (hitting a low of 4287.11
    per Yahoo). Does it really matter whether the index drop is "technically" a correction? What's the difference between dropping 9.99% and 10.01%?
    As the NYTimes puts it, "The 10 percent trigger for a correction is an arbitrary, round-number threshold. But it serves as a signal that investors have turned pointedly more pessimistic about the market."
  • More RED this morning #2
    DKNG (which I bought a week ago) +17% this morning. Who said stocks are volatile?
    Will probably close down by end of day.
    The only financial advice you can bank on 100% of the time to be totally accurate is: "markets will fluctuate, sometimes wildly, but most times rather tamely." :)
  • The Powell Put Revisited....
    Stock market weakness since the start of 2022 has made me wonder what might cause the Fed to alter its anticipated course of action for the coming months. Perhaps -- in large measure due to the cumulative effect of actions taken by the Fed and Congress since the start of 2019 -- conditions have evolved to the extent that inflation finally has the upper hand. If so, this article suggests the Fed's present course of action will continue for an extended period of time even in the presence of a continued stock market drop.
    “The policy path of least regret is, for the first time in a generation, to deal with higher inflation and inflation expectations now and worry about the consequences for growth and financial market stability later,” said Athey. “This is a world that most investors have never experienced.”
    Stocks Trading on Fumes Probably Aren’t Keeping the Fed Awake
  • More RED this morning #2
    DKNG (which I bought a week ago) +17% this morning. Who said stocks are volatile?
    Will probably close down by end of day.
  • PRWCX Shakey Start to Year
    @MikeM : I'm thinking I'm more like a deer caught in the headlights ! Recently made a buy & then a day later looking to sell something else, growth, but couldn't pull the trigger !! Probably should start nibbling ?!
    Do you own GP Contrarian ?
    Hi @Derf. No, I never saw a reason to own more than 1 GP fund since I think they are all pretty similar with small tweaks in style (something David concluded also in one of his commentaries). The Contrarian Fund may be different to that thought - contrarian to that thought so to speak :) , but a minimal # of funds has been my goal the last couple years.
  • PRWCX Shakey Start to Year
    Interesting 3 weeks, but I would say irrelevant.
    :) I'm going to wager a guess here and say over a decade+ of superior management, there may have been a few other 3-4 weeks (maybe months) of underperformance for PRWCX versus peers.
    There are similar short-view comments in a different post about Grandeur Peak funds. PRWCX and GPGOX are my #1 and #2 funds by weight. I wouldn't cash in either.