Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • MFO Ratings Updated Through December 2020 - Year-End Data ... Yay!
    Charles said " I'm also finding that it is easier to decide when to buy than when to sell."
    +1
    A good discussion point .
    Stay warm & safe , Derf
  • C19 vacc side effects
    My wife and I just had our 2nd Moderna dose. For 12-24 hrs afterwards we both experienced chills, dizzyness, body ache/joint pain, and headaches. Uncomfortable, but tolerable - considering that by the 2nd day we were symptom-free. So for us, the side effects were short-lived. Best to all. - Brian
  • C19 vacc side effects
    Purely anecdotal, of course, but no side effects at all for my wife and me after Moderna shot #1.
    There was a reported incident down in San Diego where several people had reactions immediately after inoculation. The vaccine administration was temporarily halted, but later resumed. Haven't seen any followup info on that, but might have missed it.
    Not aware of any similar reports.
  • Fidelity's Weekly Show - In The Money
    I came across this as part of Josh's interview with Dan Nathan here:
    (good discussion on options strategies)
    hthe-options-market-is-a-circus-with-dan-nathan-the-history-youve-never-been-taught
    In The Money Show (Feb 10th):
    options/in-the-money
    Also, his Podcasts (On The Tape):
    podcast/on-the-tape
  • Emerging Markets Small Cap
    MATFX is a large cap EM fund.
    You DID read what I wrote, correct? ARTYX seems to have 35% US and is large cap growth. FSEAX is at least mostly foreign, but ALSO large cap growth. All per M*. If that is correct, then MATFX, with 100% Asian large cap growth, should be in there with those two. At least I can't see a huge difference. If I'm missing something, then please point it out to me.
  • Checking what Bond Fund to own in IRA
    Why? Not seeing any reason to prefer it [SUBFX] to say FTBFX over the last 5-4-3-2-1y
    The OP appears to be looking for a fund in addition to WATFX.
    If the question were one of merely replacing WATFX, it's hard to see any reason to choose FTBFX, with its very close performance and volatility. FTBFX does have a somewhat shorter effective duration but that is offset by its lower average credit quality.
    When it comes to complementing WATFX, there's no comparison between SUBFX and FTBFX. Over the suggested timeframe (2013-now), WATFX and FTBFX have a correlation coefficient of 0.97 (hence R² of 0.94), while WATFX and SUBFX have a correlation coefficient of 0.47 (R² of 0.22). SUBFX is by far the better diversifier.
    Portfolio Visualizer correlation matrix
    There's also a middle ground. For the management skills of SUBFX in a somewhat more sedate package, i.e. core plus, but one that still offers more diversification and better performance than FTBFX, there's SCPZX. The correlation coefficient between WATFX and SCPZX is 0.83 (R² of 0.69) over the same 2013+ time frame.
  • C19 vacc side effects
    Which was my source for the CDC links with real data. The Atlantic piece, aside from explaining why these vaccines (and Moderna in particular) elicit side effects, is anectdotal.
  • Checking what Bond Fund to own in IRA
    Try setting the start for a year later, and for the periods ever after, than the v v hot start (+30% over the initial 18mos or so) of 9.5y ago.
  • C19 vacc side effects
    I suppose it depends on whether one is counting all adverse reactions or just severe ones.
    According to the CDC, data from clinical trials show that 41.9% of those (aged 18-55) receiving vaccines and keeping logs (2,291 subjects for first dose) experienced some level of headaches after their first Pfizer dose and 51.7% after their second dose.
    Of course one needs to compare these percentages with those of the 2298 subjects receiving placebos.
    Other reactions experienced (first/second doses):
    Fatigue: 47.4% / 59.4%
    Chills: 24.0% / 35.1%
    Fever: 3.7% / 15.8%
    Diarrhea: 11.1% / 10.4%
    New or worsening muscle pain: 21.3% / 37.3%
    New or worsening joint pain: 11.0% / 21.9%
    Pfizer reactions; https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/covid-19/info-by-product/pfizer/reactogenicity.html?CDC_AA_refVal=https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/covid-19/info-by-manufacturer/pfizer/reactogenicity.html
    Moderna reactions: https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/covid-19/info-by-product/moderna/reactogenicity.html
  • C19 vacc side effects
    It is never too late to buy Moderna and Pfizer stocks. I think health care funds/ETFs will do well for years to come. Pfizer stands to make over $10 billions per year for COVID-19 vaccine, and the battle has just began.
  • New "Dashboard of Launch Alerts" with January 2021 MFO Ratings Update
    Last Sunday, 7 February, all ratings were updated on our MFO Premium site, including MultiSearch, Great Owls, Fund Alarm (Three Alarm and Honor Roll), Averages, Dashboard of Profiled Funds, Portfolios, QuickSearch, and Fund Family Scorecard. The site now includes several analysis tools, including Correlation, Rolling Averages, Trend, Ferguson Metrics, Calendar Year and Period Performance.
    Today, we launched a new tool for premium subscribers: "Dashboard of Launch Alerts."
    The "Launches Dashboard" compiles and tracks funds first appearing in our "Launch Alert" feature of the monthly MFO commentary. It follows a format similar to the Profiles Dashboard, but lists funds by alert date, most recent on top to oldest on bottom, since MFO launched in May 2011.
    Hundreds of new funds are launched annually (e.g., 590 in 2020), but most are not worth mentioning. David highlights just a dozen or so each year.
    When a manager with a strong record leaves an established firm to start anew, David lets us know:

    • Andrew Foster created Seafarer Capital Partners, LLC and launched Seafarer Overseas Growth and Income (SIGIX), as discussed in the February 2012
      commentary.

    • Laura Geritz created Rondure Global Advisors, LLC and launched
      Rondure New World (RNWIX) in 2016.

    As he does when an established firm of high stewardship launches a fund in a new market: Usually, the Launch Alerts contain a paragraph or two describing why the fund may be worthy. Some are longer than others, a kind of mini-profile:
    • Towpath Focus (TOWFX) launched by Mark Oelschlager and highlighted in September 2020 feature.
    Since 2016, MFO breaks-out Launch Alerts in the new magazine format. Before that, they were included in the long-scroll format.
    Many of the funds in Launch Alert have gone-on to do quite well, some spectacularly. While about 1-in-6, as of January 2021, end-up in the dust bin (not shown, e.g., Whitebox Funds).
    As an adviser or individual investor, I would check this list often.
    Premium subscribers can access the new tool here. QuickSearch, Great Owls, Three Alarm, and Profiles tools remain available to the public without subscription.
    Enjoy!
  • MFO Ratings Updated Through December 2020 - Year-End Data ... Yay!
    Thank you MJG.
    Yep.
    Sold TSLA in March.
    Tried to buy AMZN in 2002 while vacationing in London, but was just shy in cash account on the 100 share buy ... can you believe that?!
    So, in our life times: AMZN, MSFT, TSLA, GOOG, UBER, QQQ, ARK, AAPL, BRK.A, BRK.B, FB, TWTR, BTC ... all available. We just had to chose.
    I'm also finding that it is easier to decide when to buy than when to sell.
    Up 300%? Sell! But, then watch go to 1000% or even 6000%!
    c
  • C19 vacc side effects
    "With so many adverse effects not sure many will take c19 vacc in 2022. Many Healthcare workers report feeling very sick fevers tireness and flu symptoms after 2nd dose...takes 4 6 wks to develop immunity against c19 which may explains reinfection even after 2nd dose vaccines"
    OK, so let's just take this apart a little...
    "With so many adverse effects".. .
    • Exactly how many, as a percentage of shots given?
    • Can you cite a reliable source for this?
    "Many Healthcare workers report feeling very sick fevers tireness and flu symptoms after 2nd dose."
    • Again, exactly how many, as a percentage of shots given?
    • Again, can you cite a reliable source for this claim?
    "takes 4 6 wks to develop immunity against c19 which may explains reinfection even after 2nd dose vaccines"
    • Exactly what is that supposed to mean? What "reinfection"? Are you stating that people who have already had the virus have become reinfected?
    John, over the years you have compiled quite a record of unreliable, unsubstantiated, or obviously incorrect statements here on MFO, which you present, often completely out of any reasonable context, as "facts".
    While that unenviable record has usually dealt with financial or political matters, I suggest that the issues concerning Covid 19 are far too serious for such careless and unhelpful comments.
  • C19 vacc side effects
    JohnN reported "Very small 0.3 - 0.6% side effects treatable vascular side effects like strokes or cardiac issues heart attacks"
    My wife, age 77, went into afib a couple of weeks after her first Moderna vaccine shot -- rapid and erratic heart rate. We went to ER and an Electrocardioversion put her back in sinus rhythm.
    Ten days after her second shot -- back into afib.
    There's no way to be sure that the afib is a result of the shot, but two anecdotes constitute data. Her cardiologist concurs that there have been cases.
    She has a history of afib, resulting from a valve problem and surgery.
    In a way, we hope the vaccine is the trigger. It's better to have a known cause than to fear random problems.
    As for me, I just had one Tylenol day after my second shot.
    My state (Georgia) got off to a slow start but things have improved a lot. Many local pharmacies and Health Departments are have significant involvement.
    I wish I had bought Moderna stock a year ago, when it was $19/share. Now it's $183. I do own a little in FHLC (Fidelity Health Care Index ETF) and some in FBIOX (Fidelity Select BioTech).
    David
  • C19 vacc side effects
    @johnN
    >> With so many adverse effects not sure many will take c19 vacc in 2022. Many Healthcare workers report feeling very sick fevers tireness and flu symptoms after 2nd dose
    You forgot to preface w imho .
    Do I recall correctly that you are in healthcare? Do you give off this vibe on the job? Apologies if my memory is bad.
    Have you had any deaths in your close circle of fam / friends?
    @Sven, +1, and yes, the tide is turning, slowly.
  • C19 vacc side effects
    With so many adverse effects not sure many will take c19 vacc in 2022. Many Healthcare workers report feeling very sick fevers tireness and flu symptoms after 2nd dose...takes 4 6 wks to develop immunity against c19 which may explains reinfection even after 2nd dose vaccines
    Right now the demand for COVID-19 vaccines is way, way out-strip the supply. On the west coast, the sport stadiums are turning into mass vaccination sites. Still people have to wait several hours to get their shots. That data alone should tell you what people want. A young co-worker who did not took the matter serious, just passed way 4 weeks after he got inflected. Side effects from the COVID vaccine shots are similar to those of flu vaccines. On the flip side, the permanent health damage from COVID is significantly worse than anything a flu can bring about. So wearing a mask, practing social distancing and washing hands even after the 2nd shot is a very minor inconvenience.
    Also @Derf's data on Israel vaccination program is highly encouraging. I am looking forward when US to get to that point hopefully later this year.
  • Checking what Bond Fund to own in IRA

    Chart
    SUBFX vs FTBFX, just a quick performance check for total return, nothing else inferred to risk or otherwise