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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Some questions on Emerging market funds ?
    MGGPX, MSEGX, MSSMX, MIGPX and yes I would say they are big players. I’m trying to avoid “dworsification”... it’s hard for me. But yes the first fund is my core International and the last one is the only one I could buy in that account. I have 10 percent or so in MSSMX coupled with my WAMCX. Replaced William Blair LC with MSEGX but I already had FBGRX and FDGRX... so a bit of duplication or too much in LC growth there.
    I recently backtested a simple formula... 4 funds only. FXNAX, FBGRX, MGGPX and FBALX.... I couldn’t believe what I discovered. It was only about 4 percent less than my portfolio over 5 year plus. So I may have to reign myself in and KISS.
  • Time for Hussman? High Grade Rubies? Artisan Focus ARTTX
    I wouldn't say the stimulus package is priced in at this point because the margin Democrats have in Congress is the slimmest possible and also markets usually have two reactions--the initial rally or decline when news of a possible event breaks and then another rally or decline if and when that event comes true. If the stimulus package happens, I think there will be a significant rally because of it. That doesn't mean there won't be other negative events to drag the market down before or after it, but a $1.9 trillion stimulus package is really significant if it happens and if it doesn't at all or is significantly reduced, potentially negative.
  • Tom Madell, PhD - Mutual Fund/ETF Research Newsletter, February 2021
    In order to introduce Mr. Madell to unaware MFO readers I'm providing a link to his introductory/information page where one can select the current newsletter.
    Mutual Fund/ETF Research Newsletter
  • Some questions on Emerging market funds ?
    @mcmarasco Zhao has actually been in charge since middle of 2019. He overlapped with Dance. It’s a strong fund with a long history of superior performance vs. peers. For the most part (not all cases) I have less concern with Fidelity manager changes than some other fund families. They have a strong bench. Fine rebound from corona early 2020.
    But as I said... you picked a fine fund. I’ve been thoroughly impressed with MS and am so fortunate to have a few of their funds.
    https://seekingalpha.com/article/4360861-2-international-selections-will-profit-from-falling-u-s-dollar
  • Small Caps
    Beating a dead horse here, but SCG MSSMX UP 2.99% on a sell-off day.
    For me, that does it: adding more to it tomorrow.
    Maybe another +150% year is coming?
  • EQUITY. A wee bit twitchy this morning, eh?
    We can't go upward forever in a straight line. Today feels to me like a bit of a breathe-er. Today is certainly noteworthy, but just a blip, when considering an investment-lifetime. High confidence in my fund picks lets me relax after a day like today. Due diligence duly pays off, long-term.
    From largest stake to smallest: PRWCX RPSIX PRSNX PRIDX PTIAX BRUFX PRDSX. 53% bonds. 29% US stocks. 10% foreign stocks. 8% cash.
  • Some questions on Emerging market funds ?
    I just took a flying leap into MSAUX (pj) to “compliment” MGGPX and augment my Minuscule foreign investment.
    I still believe the US is where to invest, but a little International might be advantageous and a provide a smidgen of “diversification”.
    I chose it over FSEAX because of the tax efficiency. Outside of FSEAX this ms fund beats just about all peers in metrics and returns.
    My major trepidation is 2019 & 2020 were very good years. Is 2021 and beyond going to be sub-par, if not negative?
    Of course, this is a planned long-term investment, but ........
    Any thoughts, suggestions or opinions?
    Thx. Matt
  • Time for Hussman? High Grade Rubies? Artisan Focus ARTTX
    @BenWP
    I don't believe ARTTX and VLSAX have similar strat's. I like ARTTX as it is a "risk-aware, not specifically L/S" fund and the way I understand it is there is an associate on board whose role in managing the portfolio is focused on risk management thru use of options or other, etc. The fund is run using a very process oriented approach and has out performed the SP500 by a substantial margin since inception. I like his pedigree from where he used to work at a couple hedge funds, likely learned quite a bit and took away "best practices" experience.
    VLSAX, run by KAR investments out of LA focuses long high quality, high ROIC, history of resilient earnings growth, minimal debt stock, short, low quality, high leverage, poor cash flow, declining financial metrics stocks
    per July 2020 Value Investor (apologies to you and the board as I can't seem to get the linking thing down, argh, I kept looking for a post on how to do that from the past, can't find it). Another good article about ARTTX if you Google, morningstar, an up and comer from top notch fund group, July 2019
    Lineage
    While each successive manager typically customizes along the way, it’s not
    uncommon in the investment business
    for strategies to be passed from generation to generation. Christopher Smith of
    Artisan Partners provides a representative case in point. The founding portfolio manager of the firm’s Focus Fund –
    which was launched in 2017 and now
    manages $1.3 billion in assets – Smith
    takes an “industry-first” approach to
    identifying attractive equity opportunities, looking initially for industries with
    what he believes are accelerating profit
    cycles and then for the companies that
    are priced right and best positioned to
    profit from them. He learned the basics
    of the approach from Karsch Capital's
    Michael Karsch [VII, March 31, 2010],
    who learned it from Duquense Capital’s
    Stanley Druckenmiller.
    With three years under his belt at Artisan, Smith's rendition of a thematic
    approach since its April 2017 launch
    has earned a net annualized 23.8%, vs.
    10.9% for the S&P 500
    Good Luck to All,
    Baseball Fan
  • EQUITY. A wee bit twitchy this morning, eh?
    'Course, it you're inside the Robinhood and Reddit twitter feeds or posts, you could be having an 1,800% gain this AM, from 12 days ago in GME, GAMESTOP. All one has to do is grab one of these stocks at the right buy and right sell and if your bet is large enough for your portfolio; you won't have to take risk evermore.
    And you thought COVID was disruptive.
    The more traditional funds and etf's that hold some of the targeted stocks for the past 12 months may indicate over-sized gains; whether from luck or choice for inclusion by a manager. If one of your funds or etf is performing really well, be sure to discover what is pushing the holdings.
    Global etf's, real time
    Star Trek investment moments for the RobinHood alert: SHIELDS UP !!!
    Bumpy ride ahead.....; depends where one's money currently resides.
    Take care,
    Catch
  • Grandeur Peak Global Advisors' 4th quarter 2020 newsletter
    @Sven : Page 16 says they give back 2% of revenue to worthy causes. Probably not the only fund to do this, but at the moment I can't come up with one. Plus as an investor you get your say as to where some of the funds go.
    Stay Safe, Derf
  • Time for Hussman? High Grade Rubies? Artisan Focus ARTTX
    @ Baseball_Fan: I have not paid attention to ARTTX, despite owning 3 of Artisan's funds. Since its début in 2017, the fund has undergone one name change and the "group" running it has also re-named itself as "Antero Peak." I see that the fund can short stocks and use options, but I can't really discern what its strategy is. There's a great deal of verbiage on the web site, all of which seems to say that the team divides companies into themes and tries to make money by investing in the ones whose stocks will go up the most quickly. (Yes, the next word is "DUH.") BTW, only one person, a Christopher Smith, whose lack of a verifiable investment history was reviewed on MFO by Professor Snowball, appears to be responsible for everything. If he has a "team" he does not tell who they are or what they contribute. Do you like this fund as a Long-Short for turbulent markets? Are you thinking VLSAX has a similar strategy to ARTTX so that one of them might complement a position in Hussman? The last fact sheet posted for ARTTX suggests it was only 1-2% short on its publication date, although M* currently shows a much higher percentage of short positions. Let us know what you're thinking.
  • Grandeur Peak Global Advisors' 4th quarter 2020 newsletter
    I think you are referring to P. 17. All GP funds out-performed their respective benchmarks by a large margin for 5+ years. Also many GP funds are Great Owl funds. What makes GP differs from other mutual fund family is close their funds at fairly low asset level (well less than $500 millions). Also they stay within their competency/expertise in the mid-small-micro cap space unlike other shops that keep on expanding just to attract new $.
  • Time for Hussman? High Grade Rubies? Artisan Focus ARTTX
    LB, isn't the stimulus package already priced into the market? If anything the surprise will likely be that the stimulus is less than what was originally mentioned by Pres Biden
    JB and Observant1, very difficult to disagree and argue against the viewpoint that cash is a better way to go, especially medium to long term...I'm thinking we're in for some choppy waters here in the near term, let's see how it plays out over the next 30-60-90 days.
    I'm thinking of pair trades, HSGFX with VLSAX / ARTTX...Hussman Strategic Growth, Virtus Kar Long Short, Artisan Focus, equal ratio between all 3 funds.
    I could be very wrong. Not recommending this to anyone, due your own homework.
    Best,
    Baseball Fan
  • Time for Hussman? High Grade Rubies? Artisan Focus ARTTX
    Better off going to cash than investing with Hussman.
    This is very good financial advice!
    "Obviously, Hussman turned into a 'perma-bear,' calling for disaster constantly (and wrongly). Hussman still insists that he will be vindicated, and criticizes those who would 'declare victory at halftime.' He criticized 'declaring victory at halftime' previously six full years ago (that’s one long halftime). Hussman wants us to believe that he’s not wrong, merely right but early. However, if you keep making the same wrong call over and over, you don’t get any credit for it when you’re (eventually) right."
    "Through 2019, Hussman’s Strategic Growth fund has suffered a 10-year average annual 'return' of -7.54 percent, compared to a 13.24 percent average annual gain by its benchmark, the S&P 500. Despite exceptional early returns, the fund not only badly trails the S&P since inception, it is now a money loser since inception. Notwithstanding this terrible performance, Hussman keeps charging investors 1.25 percent annually to lose their money."
    Link
  • Mutual fund SVARX
    Aside from an outstanding 2020, SVARX has ebb above and below a multi-sector fund like PTIAX. When I see these two charted together I am reminded that owning an equal share of both helps smooths things even further than one alone if low volatility is your goal.
    Here's the two individually and then combine (50/50):
    Individually and Equal Weighted
  • OK, what is "Distribution Code G" on the tax form?
    Evening Crash. A google search produced this. "
    ‎June 5, 2019 10:22 PM
    Code G means direct rollover and it will not be taxed at all. You don't need to enter where you moved it. But just to warn you the Income Summary and Review screens will show the full amount as income and make it look like it's being taxed. But it's not, you have to look at the actual 1040 or 1040A and see that the taxable amount is zero and has the word ROLLOVER by it.
    Stay Safe, Derf
  • Grandeur Peak Global Advisors' 4th quarter 2020 newsletter
    Page 16, anther reason to invest with GP !
    Stay safe, Derf
  • Small Caps
    Yes, I'd forgotten about the $5M entry, but my wife was in that one for a few very profitable years--- but via her 403b.
    That's what I was thinking, 401k or 403b.