Yeah I'm going to run right out and buy a 5.25% loaded fund in 2021. LOL

Have I traveled in time back to the 1980s? Where's the DeLorean?

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/709364/000094937721000020/g75042_485a.htm
Royce Premier Fund
Royce Pennsylvania Mutual Fund
Royce Special Equity Fund

Ya, I guess with Dr Hussman the old saying, I'd rather be rich than right comes to mind. Have to state, if you read his commentary, directionally it makes a lot of rational sense...kind of the opposite of GME, Gamestop, ARK moonshot investing, etc.
Candidly, I always found it interesting that those who did NOT sell in 08'-09' and just held were considered "smart investors". As I recall at the time, the market could have easily lost another 50% at the lows, no one knew that the Bernake and the Fed were going to implement QE. Back then saw many "wise" investors come back to work after they retired as they "buy and hold'ed" and got sawed in half, 401k to 201k, home values plummeted, dangerous, frightening times...remember talk one weekend of the entire financial system locking up...thank goodness Paulsen saved us (sarc or did he really?)
I'm more interested in HSAFX than the older growth fund HSGFX...the former being more of an allocation fund. That being said I can't seem to purchase HSAFX thru Schwab. I think it's going to take combo of technical, trend and valuation investing skill sets and sure, pure luck to make sustainable money in the markets this year.
Best,
Baseball Fan

@davidmoran @stillers - Your criticism is also less than actionable and lowers rather elevates. Shut up and Move on.

Har. Touchy and proprietary, are we?
So ... can you do an executive summary of this silly thing? What are its takeaways, since you find my snark 'less than actionable'?
His cherrypicking aside, not to mention the comedy bronze of his admission 'This was on the price level only' and his duh observation that cash outperforms bears, I wonder about some of the assertions.
>> 4. From 1969-1981, the stock market underperformed the rate of inflation by more than 56%. The total return for the S&P 500 from 1969-1981 was 105%. Not bad, right?
>> Well, that depends on how you think about returns. Prices rose more than 160% in that same time, meaning the stock market lost roughly 2% annually on a real basis.
Well, unless I am missing something,
http://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/fund/chart.action?t=ffidx
shows that SP500 from summer '69 to summer '81 (I don't know what his exact endpoints are) rose from $10k to >$25k. Meanwhile,
https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/
shows, for the same timespan or close, that $10k inflated to <$25k.
So wtf? Maybe some editor shoulda asked him for his cites and sites.
And what's with the Japan wackiness? And what's with the risk tautology hindsight at the end?
In other areas this is called portfolio churning or tirespinning. Or having a column due. And the guy manages portfolios at Ritholtz. 'Wealth of common sense' indeed.

I had a financial adviser tell me once that holding gold bars in one's house made no sense as what's to stop someone from coming to the goldbug's house and beating that person to death with their own bars? Banks exist so one doesn't have to deal with those security issues. I guess rubies are easier to conceal. But there is a technological problem in 2021: https://scmp.com/magazines/style/luxury/article/3043892/will-cartier-and-other-luxury-brands-start-using-more-lab Would someone just accept rubies, even fake ones, without being an expert in 2021? Maybe the thing to do is buy fake rubies and pass them off as real when trying to escape.
Still, if you know the history of fascism--which the riot on capitol hill was all about--seeking to overturn a democratic election via pure violence--as opposed to democratic socialism--nowhere even close to that in the U.S.--diamonds and gold sometimes helped people escape and sometimes they didn't. Biden is no socialist. Taxes will go up almost certainly, but given the debt trajectory Trump had the country on previously, taxes were bound to go up anyway. But having any taxation, contrary to popular belief, is not socialism.
As for Hussman, he's a smart guy who's been wrong. He's bound to be right eventually as davfor points out. But in investing if a manager's timing is way off on a macro prediction, he is wrong. One thing I never quite understood regarding HSGFX is it was supposed to use both valuation and technical momentum driven signals to go long or hedge the market exposure. Despite the high valuations we've seen, I would've expected some of the fund to be long--or 50% long-- given the momentum we've also seen. Perhaps the reason it was often fully hedged--and I may be answering my own question here--is that while the market was always rallying, it was a narrow rally of a few giant stocks driving the market's returns. So perhaps Hussman felt that there wasn't enough breadth in the rallies to go partially long.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/should-you-use-a-monte-carlo-simulation-to-determine-if-your-retirement-savings-will-last-11611607222?siteid=yhoof2
Stay safe, Derf

So, I write an article: Facts about the 9 favorite vegetable plants, planted by Midwestern families, in summer gardens.
I finish my article with: I don’t know what you might want to do with mixing or matching these vegetables for recipes in cooking, as you'll have to make that choice.
Did my title mislead the reader? I don't think so. I never suggested from the title that I was going to do anything but provide some data points about the vegetables; not suggest cooking recipes.
I found Mr. Carlson's data points of interest and will presume they are accurate. I did not expect any suggestions as to where the markets are pointed, either up or down; or suggested actions for the retail investor.
@bee Thank you for your numerous links, charts and graphs; and comments over the years, since joining the new "MFO" in April, 2011; as member number 24.
Respectfully,
Catch

Here is a email that I received from T Rowe Price:
Important: T. Rowe Price Blue Chip Growth Fund and T. Rowe Price Blue Chip Growth ETF Portfolio Management Updates
We are writing to inform you that Larry Puglia portfolio manager of the US Large-Cap Core Growth Equity Strategy, including the T. Rowe Price Blue Chip Growth Fund, T. Rowe Price Blue Chip Growth Portfolio, and T. Rowe Price Blue Chip Growth ETF, intends to retire from portfolio management at the end of 2021. Effective October 1, 2021, Paul Greene, currently the associate portfolio manager of the US Large-Cap Core Growth Equity Strategy, will succeed Larry.
For the past 30 years, Larry has worked in the U.S. Equity Division at T. Rowe Price. He began his career as an analyst covering the financial services sector. He also ran the Financial Services Equity Strategy before incepting the US Large-Cap Core Growth Equity Strategy in 1993.
We are pleased that Paul has accepted this new role. This is a natural next step for Paul, who has 14 years of investment experience, all with T. Rowe Price. He has worked closely with Larry for years, and he is very familiar with the strategy’s investment approach and all of the holdings and sectors in the T. Rowe Price Blue Chip Growth Fund, T. Rowe Price Blue Chip Growth Portfolio, and T. Rowe Price Blue Chip Growth ETF. He has also been a member of the strategy’s Investment Advisory Committee since 2010.
Like Larry, Paul began his career at the firm as an analyst. Paul also took on portfolio management responsibilities, leading the Communications and Technology Equity Strategy for nearly seven years as well as serving as sector leader of our media/telecommunications team.
Thank you for the confidence that you have placed in T. Rowe Price.
Please click here to download a prospectus for the T. Rowe Price Blue Chip Growth Fund and T. Rowe Price Blue Chip Growth ETF.
All funds are subject to market risk, including the potential loss of principal.
This communication does not undertake to give investment advice in a fiduciary capacity. T. Rowe Price Associates, Inc., and/or its affiliates receive revenue from T. Rowe Price investment products and services.
T. Rowe Price Investment Services, Inc.
From Morningstar:
https://www.morningstar.com/articles/1019030/t-rowe-price-blue-chip-growths-manager-to-retire

Good Morning Class,
I'm thinking when we look back at the "markets" (casino?) at the end of the year, we're going to realize that in late January we were facing a very binary outcome...either the majority of us get the jab in the arm (key could be JNJ vaccine (?), there is a antidote by Merck or with the new admin, taxes go up, regulations go up, socialistic spending ramps up and markets (casino?) craters....look at the nonsense with GME Gamestop...you wanna put your life savings into this sheet show?
so...
1) Is it time for Hussman, HSGFX or HSAFX...go ahead and call me crazee but don't call me Shirley but I'm going to step into the Huss with a noticeable investment today.
2) Is it time for high grade rubies? I recall a passionate discussion during the "Financial Crisis" (housing bubble scam) with my CFO and others by the water cooler how you could shove a million dollars of high grade rubies in your sock and no one would know they were there...shared stories from my Grandma how her wealth was confiscated by the democratic socialists under Tito...she was lucky to escape with her life as they usually popped the wealthy
I recall The Gundlach stated he "likes real assets that he can put in the trunk of his car" (paraphrasing)
3) On the other half, I'm thinking the markets might be up 30-40% if the vaccines take effect, we don't have the nutty tweeties anymore and things calm down, economy and jobs pick up etc..so slowly adding to ARTTX on down days
4) I'd rather myself play the "bro-investor" approach by buying stocks like Penn Gaming than Bitcoin...
Like I said, binary, place your bets? Of course, posting for entertainment purposes only, I have no idea what will happen this year, etc.
Best and good health to all,
Baseball Fan

T. Rowe Price Blue Chip Growth ETF
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1795351/000174177321000034/c497.htm
497 1 c497.htm
T. Rowe Price Blue Chip Growth ETF
Supplement to Prospectus Dated June 23, 2020
In section 1, the portfolio manager table under “Management” is supplemented as follows:
Effective October 1, 2021, Larry J. Puglia will step down as a portfolio manager and Chair of the fund’s Investment Advisory Committee. Paul D. Greene II will succeed Mr. Puglia to become portfolio manager of the fund and Chair of the fund’s Investment Advisory Committee. Mr. Greene joined T. Rowe Price in 2006.
In section 2, the disclosure under “Portfolio Management” is supplemented as follows:
Effective October 1, 2021, Larry J. Puglia will step down as a portfolio manager and Chair of the fund’s Investment Advisory Committee. Paul D. Greene II will succeed Mr. Puglia to become portfolio manager of the fund and Chair of the fund’s Investment Advisory Committee.
During the past five years, Mr. Greene has served as a portfolio manager for other
T. Rowe Price Funds and has assisted the portfolio manager in managing the fund since inception as an associate portfolio manager. He joined the Firm in 2006 and his investment experience dates from that time.
The date of this supplement is January 26, 2021.
ETF785-041 1/26/21

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/902259/000174177321000031/c497.htm
497 1 c497.htm
T. Rowe Price Funds
Supplement to the following Prospectuses, each as dated below (as supplemented):
May 1, 2020
T. Rowe Price Blue Chip Growth Portfolio
December 15, 2020
T. Rowe Price Blue Chip Growth Fund
In section 1, the portfolio manager table under “Management” is supplemented as follows:
Effective October 1, 2021, Larry J. Puglia will step down as a portfolio manager and Chair of the fund’s Investment Advisory Committee. Paul D. Greene II will succeed Mr. Puglia to become portfolio manager of the fund and Chair of the fund’s Investment Advisory Committee. Mr. Greene joined T. Rowe Price in 2006.
In section 2, the disclosure under “Portfolio Management” is supplemented as follows:
Effective October 1, 2021, Larry J. Puglia will step down as a portfolio manager and Chair of the fund’s Investment Advisory Committee. Paul D. Greene II will succeed Mr. Puglia to become portfolio manager of the fund and Chair of the fund’s Investment Advisory Committee.
During the past five years, Mr. Greene has served as a portfolio manager for other
T. Rowe Price Funds and has assisted the portfolio manager in managing the fund since January 1, 2020 as an associate portfolio manager. He joined the Firm in 2006 and his investment experience dates from that time.
The date of this supplement is January 26, 2021.
G24-041 1/26/21

...the fate of the most ambitious climate agenda ever proposed by an American president rests in his hands...Sen. Joe Manchin III

Deal Making Required

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/26/short-sellers-are-down-91-billion-in-january-as-gamestop-leads-squeeze-in-stocks-they-bet-against.html
Very interesting background/history of an investing strategy that I know little about.
So glad this strategy is FAR beyond both my pay grade AND risk tolerance level. But it is entertaining to watch, as long as it doesn't blow up one of my positions of course.
Any personal stories about direct experiences with short selling would be appreciated.

- .01% on the day.
Stay Safe, Derf

@Observant1 Same here. +0.07% on the day, Monday, 25 January, 2021.

+1

@stillers: I appreciate what you’ve said when comparing MIGPX and MGGPX. The team at MS led by Dennis Lynch has a great record in several funds. The risk that Kristian Heugh is stretched too thin across several funds seems real to me. The only WS growth fund that has kept up with and even beaten MIGPX is the Baron fund, BGAFX. Maybe not coincidentally, Alex Umansky, the sole manager, cut his teeth at MS helping manage a handful of growth funds up until 2011 when he went to work for Baron. It makes a lot of sense to trust a team over the long haul, unless Heugh and Umansky can continue successfully.