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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • When is the Right Time to Invest?
    unless you are retired then place everything in bonds
    The problem with putting 100% into “bonds” at retirement is that some of us may spend 30 or 40 years in retirement. Do you really want to settle for relatively low bond-like returns over all those years? The other problem with the statement is that “bond” can mean anything from “safe” U.S. Treasury bonds (yielding very little) to speculative C rated junk bonds having very high yields, high risk, and capital appreciation potential similar to that of equities.
    Ol’Skeet is correct. I see inflation near everywhere I look. Don’t forget that higher taxes, government imposed fees, and tariffs on imports constitute a form of inflation - as well as the aggregate CPI items. For the life of me I don’t understand the low inflation figures the govt. reports. Just replaced the top boards on my deck with new treated 2x6s. Couldn’t believe the cost of materials alone. The original deck went on the house the first year I was retired. Grateful I wasn’t invested 100% in bonds over those 20 years as the price of lumber was doubling or tripling.
    Best answer to those low govt. inflation figures is that technology has gotten cheaper. You can buy a 50”-60” color TV today for no more than a good 27” color set would have cost you 20-30 years ago. (But try munching on a TV for supper).
  • An "All-American" 9.7% Dividend Trading At A 16% Discount: (GAM)

    GAM's CAGR (ave annual return) since Jan 2010 is 9.89%. Vanguard's S&P fund returned a CAGR of 12.97%. So "Mikey" at Forbes has provided an "income" idea by sacrificed almost 25% of the total return by owning GAM. GAM may be a "stockpicker's" vehicle, but the stockpicker is generating negative alpha...
    Per CEFconnect, GAM distributed $2.25 during 2018. -- Or about 6.2% of GAMs price on 8/2/19. All of it paid on a single calendar day in December. Now 6.2% is a pretty good "yield", but most income-oriented investors prefer to be paid monthly, or at least quarterly. And, of that $2.25 distribution, the overwhelming amount was from L/T cap gains. L/T cap gains are not reliably predictable. And moreover, if an income investor spends those cap gains, he is "eating his seed corn". An investor in SPY could just harvest a few shares and distribute the proceeds to himself, and do better than GAM. The actual income disty was a puny $0.30. Embarrassing.
    Mikey also cites GAM as having "lower volatility". Portfoliovisualizer indicates GAM has experienced 117% of the volatility of the S&P. The same source indicates GAM had a bigger drawdown AND a worse "worst year" than the S&P.
    It appears that every material assertion which Mikey makes about GAM is factually wrong. The advice Mikey is tossing out their for public consumption is Kr@p. Forbes should be sued for financial malpractice.
  • Retirement strategies
    @Crash
    You noted: "Gas is nuts: about $3.69. But you can't drive very far, anyhow, eh?....."
    Island living.....Virgin Islands, etc. Always been expensive, except for some local products.....perhaps?
    Don't recall exactly, but visiting family in the Virgin Islands 40 years ago, and one of the best Cruzan Rums available was about $1.00 for a tall bottle. A six pack of Coke for mix was about $2.50. These price ratios pretty much remain in tact to day.
    Side story: St. Croix, V.I. Was there during a period of a small city parade. Fairly normal small town anywhere; with school marching bands, small floats being pulled by tractors, candy being thrown to the kids, AND 6 decorated flat bed trucks representing the rum distillers on the island............you guessed it. These flat beds moved along the road very slowly, and the adults could walk along the float and order their FREE favorite drink mix; as long as it contained RUM. Coca Cola, coconut milk mix.....whatever. The kids ended the day with a sugar buzz and some of the adults ended with a BUZZ, period. The most unique parade we've every attended.
    I presume you've searched a cost of living comparison site for Hawaii.
    Apparently the Arizona move is off the table, eh?

    Global Cost of Living Index
    Columns may be sorted between high and low costs.
    Wish you all well, if you choose to make the move.
  • Retirement strategies
    I retired in 2012. But wife is younger and continues to work. I'm still in my family home until the pending sale is finalized. We could stay, owe no rent or mortgage payment, and just pay the taxes. But not after the most recent time I became a crime victim. So, we moved up our timetable and we'll be out by mid-October. For the record: do not even think about moving to Springfield, Massachusetts. Guns, drugs, gangs, murder, theft. I lament what this city has become over the years.
    Our solution: moving in with cousins in a dream destination: Hawaii. The cost of living is considerably higher, but by sharing the housing expense (and food and cable) it's quite manageable. We've visited and spent time before, so we have a good feel for the environment. Taxes on retirees are not bad. I think I'll buy a bus pass. I'm not sure if I can use it all the way into Honolulu without an extra charge, but just about everything I need can be obtained on the Windward side of Oahu, where we're headed: Kaneohe.
    This is not research or strategy, but it's well thought-out. "Fish and relatives stink after three days." Yes. Unless they're paying half the rent. ;) Utilities in that apartment are included, too. That simplifies things, as well. Gas is nuts: about $3.69. But you can't drive very far, anyhow, eh?.....
    ...Wifey will work. My SS and pension together will keep us comfortable, in any case. I just turned 65. I might just wait for the day when RMDs are required, to tap into my Trad. IRA. My accountant tells me I've got $5,000.00 of non-taxable, non-deductible IRA dollars still sitting in the account. He advises taking $1,000 or $2,000 at a time, if I choose to go that route.
  • Retirement strategies
    Here’s another:
    http://retirementoptimizer.com (There are pdf copies of his book floating around on the internet)
    You should be commended for wanting to plan 10 yrs out. I am 2 yrs in and still don’t have a plan. However, I do keep thinking - for 35 yrs I’ve told my wife “don’t buy that you’ll need that money later” and for 35 yrs she’s rolled her eyes and bought it anyway. Well so far, all that eye rolling was justified, later has never come and it doesn’t look like it will.
  • Lewis Braham: The Best Time To Buy And Sell An Exchange Traded Fund: 30,000 Links
    @Lewis: I still enjoy playing poker and watching sports on TV.”
    @Ted, Don’t forget to watch the Cubs today. They’re at the top of the NL Central. Playing a pretty good team in the Brewers.
    Whatever you do - don’t go near the toxic Tigers. They’re now 34 games back, in the cellar of the AL Central. And their new announcers stink after 16-year veterans Rod Allen & Mario Impemba got booted last season following a physical altercation (over a chair). You’d think that with all the $$ they were getting paid to watch baseball they could have at least pretended to like each other?
    A couple links to that story:
    https://www.detroitnews.com/story/sports/mlb/tigers/2018/09/06/rod-allen-had-mario-impemba-choke-hold-during-fracas-after-detroit-tigers-game/1211612002/
    https://www.detroitnews.com/story/sports/mlb/tigers/2019/01/13/ex-tigers-broadcaster-rod-allen-talks-fight-mario-impemba/2564597002/
  • Investors Are Usually Wrong. I’m One Of Them
    FYI: Forget about getting everything right. Most people are so consistently wrong that merely avoiding major errors is enough to set you apart from the pack.
    That is the message in the latest data from Dalbar, a Massachusetts research firm that has been studying the behavior of mutual fund investors for 25 years.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/26/your-money/stock-bond-investing.html?rref=collection/timestopic/Mutual Funds&action=click&contentCollection=timestopics&region=stream&module=stream_unit&version=latest&contentPlacement=1&pgtype=collection
  • An "All-American" 9.7% Dividend Trading At A 16% Discount: (GAM)
    FYI: There’s an intriguing trend showing up in second-quarter earnings. And today I’ll show you how you can jump on it with a cheap closed-end fund (CEF)—I’m talking a 16% discount here.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelfoster/2019/08/03/an-all-american-9-7-dividend-trading-at-a-16-discount/#49b8d2b36461
    GENERAL AMERICAN INVESTORS was established in 1927; it hadn’t fully deployed its capital in 1929, which helped it survive. In 1931, it nearly died as the market languished. That year “was way worse than 1929,” relates Jeff Priest, a former hedge fund chief and arbitrageur who took over as manager in 2012. He is only General American’s sixth manager.
    General American is another stockpicker’s fund: It has an active share of 82, and its largest 10 positions account for nearly a third of its portfolio. They include retailer TJX Co s. (TJX), reinsurer Arch Capital (ACGL), waste-services company Republic Services (RSG), Microsoft, and Nestlé (NESN.Switzerland).
    Priest follows a growth-at-a-reasonable price philosophy, looking to invest for three to seven years with corporate managers who are good capital allocators. “A high- quality investment depends on how the management team generates cash and redeploys it,” says Priest, 54, who learned about capital allocation from his father, Bill Priest, the Barron’s Roundtable member who has written authoritatively about shareholder yield.
    The fund yields 10%; it has repurchased shares when they trade at a discount of at least 8%. Through September, it had bought back 23.5 million common shares; there are still 27 million outstanding. It also is repurchasing preferred stock.
    General American has a relatively high expense ratio of 1.2%, but it also trades at an 18% discount. As Priest describes it, “that’s almost 17 years of forward investment management costs.” Indeed, Priest himself buys shares annually “because I get to have a dollar of assets for 82 cents—a long-term compound over my lifetime and the children’s.” Priest’s family owns 149,442 shares, worth about $5 million. That discount creates opportunities for new closed-end shareholders. At the moment, says Priest, “people are excited about deregulation and lower taxes. My own feeling is we [the market] have been going along for eight years and haven’t boiled over. If you made a basic assumption that equities discount nominal gross domestic product, you have an opportunity set in front of you that is beneficial.”
    ( Source Barron's Article Leslie P. Norton January 7, 2017)
    General American Investors Website
    http://www.generalamericaninvestors.com/
    M* Snapshot GAM:
    https://www.morningstar.com/cefs/xnys/gam/quote
    CEFA.Com Snapshot GAM:
    https://www.cefa.com/FundSelector/FundDetail.fs?ID=2046
    CEF Connect.Com Snapshot GAM:
    https://www.cefconnect.com/fund/GAM
  • When is the Right Time to Invest?
    @_OldSkeet - hi sir. Have not thought about inflation too much. for my private portfolio most new monies-div montly been buying mostly equities, ~20s% to HY private bonds [like verizon, CIM, 88163VAD1, sprint bonds, Darden restaurants [237194AE5] for YTM >5.5%. Higher yield may offset inflation. Just have a short fuse of know when to sell and have your google.com/alerts on 'darden bankrup' and sell when you think bad things may happen. We held darden resturants [couple like redlobsters dont think will bankrup] 237194AE5 > 2.5 yrs and and love that bond, gave us 3 or 4k every time they have Divs 8.15 and 2/15
    longhorn cheddars capital grill are some of favorite restaurants in Texas. Too bad they sold redlobsters divisions away
    gap
    alcoa
    HP
    energy bonds
    couple of infrastructures /freeway systems in Dallas/Austin because we know those areas well
    these are some of the bonds we hold
    Plus we don't worry too much if market not doing too well, has good hedge w/ bonds and high-yield dividend stocks, preferred stocks
  • Retirement strategies
    Derf, I do not see a link to the article or its name. Could you try again, please?
    Until @Derf gets back from lunch, these links might help. The February / March 2919 AARP Magazine references a 5-year retirement planner/check-list. By Googling different years (1-5) it may be possible to bring each year up separately (or all together).
    - Here’s an overview of the full AARP edition for February/MAR 2019: https://www.marketwatch.com/press-release/inside-the-februarymarch-issue-of-aarp-the-magazine-2019-02-07
    - Here’s their one-year check-list: https://www.aarp.org/retirement/planning-for-retirement/info-2019/1-year-countdown.html
    While the AARP materials leave me wanting, their suggestion to “test drive” the retirement budget a year ahead is invaluable - like testing the waters (and checking for crocodiles) before diving in.
  • Retirement strategies
    Although the request is for books on the subject of retirement funding; I thought I'd post on how I managed my parents money after they retired and now what I'm doing that I'm retired. I'm by no means saying this is right for everyone ... It is what I'm doing and I thought it might provide some ideas for others to think on.
    I made an adjustment to my asset allocation back in the 4th quarter of 2018 as I felt that equity valuations were becoming streached plus the yield curve inverted. For now, I'm rocking along at about 20% cash, 40% income and 40% equity which I call my all weather asset allocation.
    My all weather asset allocation of 20% cash, 40% income and 40% equity affords me everything necessary to meet my needs now being retired and in the distribution phase of investing. The benefit of this asset allocation is that it provides sufficient income, maximizes diversification, minimizes volatility, and provides long-term returns. For the week the S&P 500 Index pulled back 3.1% while my portfolio declined 1.3%. Year to date I have the equally weighted S&P 500 Index up 17.4% while I'm up a little better than 11%.
    The 20% held in cash area provides me ample cash should I need a cash draw over and above what my portfolio generates plus it can provide the capital necessary to fund a special investment position (spiff) should I choose to open one during a stock market pullback. In addition, cash helps stabelize a portfolio during stock market volatility. Example of investments held in this area are cash savings, money market mutual funds (AMAXX, GBAXX & PCOXX) and CD's.
    The 40% held in the income area provides me ample income generation to meet my income needs in retirement. It is a well diversified area that incorporates a good number of income generating type funds. Some examples of investments held in this area are ISFAX, PONAX & JGIAX. Currently, the portfolio has a yield of about 3.25% with a distribution yield, which includes capital gain distributions, north of 5%.
    The 40% held in the equity area provides me some dividend income along with some growth that equities generally provide which overtime offsets the effects of inflation. Some examples of investments held in this area are NEWFX, SVAAX, SPECX.
    Generally, for my income distributions, I take no more than a sum equal to what one half of my five year average total return has been leaving the residual for new investment opportunity. In this way principal grows over time. And, as principal grows so do the distributions.
    I wish all ... "Good Investing."
    Old_Skeet
  • Jim Grant: The Trouble With Modern Monetary Theory
    FYI: Modern monetary theory is not so theoretical anymore. In all but name, it’s the description of Republican fiscal policy in this living moment. “Federal Borrowing Soars as Deficit Fear Fades,” said the headline on page one of Tuesday’s Wall Street Journal. For the second year in a row, the Trump administration is spending $1 trillion more than the government expects to extract from the taxpayers.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.barrons.com/articles/jim-grant-the-trouble-with-modern-monetary-theory-51564740001?mod=djem_b_Weekly Feed for Barrons Magazine
  • Lewis Braham: The Best Time To Buy And Sell An Exchange Traded Fund: 30,000 Links
    FYI: This is a follow-up article, and couldn't think of a better way in making my 30,000 link than an article by our own MFO member Lewis Braham.)
    No one ever said day trading was easy. But maybe night trading is.
    According to a July report from Bespoke Investment Group, essentially all market gains since 1993—as represented by the SPDR S&P 500 Trust exchange-traded fund (ticker: SPY)—have come outside of hours when the market is actually open for trading. “Had you bought at the close every day and sold at the next trading day’s open, you’d be up 672% right now (not even including dividends),” writes Justin Walters, the report’s author and Bespoke’s co-founder. “Had you done the opposite and bought at the open every trading day and sold at the close that same day, you’d be down 11.5%.”
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.barrons.com/articles/a-successful-after-hours-trading-pattern-is-broken-by-trumps-tweets-51564789699?mod=past_editions
  • the August Mutual Fund Observer!
    James Baldwin, born this day 95y ago: “I love America more than any other country in this world, and, exactly for this reason, I insist on the right to criticize her perpetually.” (~1955)
  • You are paying attention to bond yields, yes?
    Yes, I was amazed at PTIAX yesterday. Up again today. I took 56% of my PRSNX and bought that much of RPSIX today. Was it a happy coincidence, or a major blunder? After I'd seen that PRSNX is carrying a bit more risk than I like, and its div shrank in June and July, I decided it was time. I am not particularly attracted to any fund full of other funds, but with the added bit (13%) of equities in its portfolio, I am rather comfortable with RPSIX. PRSNX was up today, and RPSIX was down by just a penny. But these are not equity funds, anyhow... Eventually, I suppose I'll start taking the divs rather than re-investing it all.
  • Retirement strategies
    @mcmarasco
    After some searching I found this article written by Bruce Miller that sheds a little light on using open ended mutual funds to fund retirement withdrawals.
    Back testing isn't full proof, but it helps shape the discussion in this article.
    https://seekingalpha.com/article/4050402-long-term-growing-income-open-end-mutual-fund-possible
  • You are paying attention to bond yields, yes?
    Anyone making short term portfolio adjustments to capture bond fund capital appreciation as rates move down?
    PTIAX had a .51% gain yesterday.
  • You are paying attention to bond yields, yes?
    I anticipated a direct post related to bond yields actions, prior to this 8:50 am, EST, post.
    Short on time today, but IMHO; one needs to give attention to the bond yield drops.
    Bond yields have had significant moves in the past few days, and yesterday in particular. As a reference, the UST, 10 year had a yield change drop, that in math terms is about 9% since Thursday morning.
    Had this 9% been for SPY, SP-500 or related similar equity market; one would be seeing and reading very large headlines.
    It is my continued opinion that one needs to continue to observe investment grade bond yields to help maintain a "feel" for the overall health and direction of the equity markets.
    This yield action may be a quick flash for whatever reasons drive these movements from the large players. I'm not formally trained in economics, but a long time observer.
    Your investment grade bond holdings should have seen significant positive price movements yesterday, August 1 and early indicators today suggest the same for today (August 2). Investment grade bonds have had very decent gains YTD.
    Hang in there,
    Catch