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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Is there a site that tracks fund buys/sells over time?
    Similar Funds is a M* Premium feature. It is based on fund Categories and finds "similarity" scores for portfolios and performance. It doesn't provide holding details like @rforno is looking for. I used Pimco PIMIX and it refused to find any due to missing data. I used Fido FADMX and it found several
    https://www.morningstar.com/funds/similar-funds
    "Overview
    Similar Funds compares each fund with all other funds in its investment category. For example, if a fund's category is listed as large growth then it will be compared only with other large-growth funds. Depending on the specific ticker you input, we may screen on additional criteria, too. For example, if you input a market-neutral fund, Similar Funds will only consider other market-neutral funds in its results.....
    Portfolio Similarity
    The portfolio similarity score is determined by comparing various attributes of each fund's most recent portfolio. The exact attributes vary depending on the type of fund being compared. For domestic-stock funds, for example, we look at the following portfolio data: asset allocation, weightings in top three sectors, percent of assets in top-10 holdings, fund turnover, median market cap, and P/E. Funds are scored from 0 to 10, with 10 being the most similar. Funds with incomplete portfolio data may have their portfolio similarity score excluded or penalized by these calculations.
    ....."
  • Investment strategy for an 18 year old
    Definitely invest in a Roth IRA to get lifetime tax free growth, plus he could make a penalty free withdrawal for down payment on first home. I would keep it simple an invest a total market index fund, either domestic or global — such as FZROX or FFNOX. FFNOX provides worldwide stock exposure plus 15-20% in bonds. A comparable active fund is TRSGX.
  • Barry Ritholtz’s 12 Investing Tips
    @bee - Thanks for linking the list of Barry’s mistakes. Nice to see that 2016 was “apparently without any flaws”. I thought it interesting that he makes a big deal about his errant call on BREXIT and related matters. Kind of runs contrary to his stated aversion (Item #2) to making predictions.
    I could write a book about all the things I’ve got wrong. Nearly killed the goose with an ill-advised bet on an Oppenheimer commodities fund couple decades ago. And, like some others here, I invested in HSGFX in its early years. Abandoned that one before too much damage was done. Just 2 of many missteps over a 50+ year investing history.
    -
    PS - I think the hardest lesson for me to learn is not to “double down” on a failing investment. Often that simply compounds the problem. A one-way street!
  • What moves are you considering for 2022?
    Thanks @Observant1 - I seem to always appreciate and admire your choices and feedback on funds. Eye opening graph in that PDF you shared… volatility vs S&P during crisis.
  • What moves are you considering for 2022?
    JENSX looks good on the surface but I haven't thoroughly investigated this fund.
    I like and own PRILX.
    The fund generated top quintile returns for the 3 Yr, 5 Yr, 10 Yr, and 15 Yr periods ending 11/30/21.
    PRILX also tends to have lower maximum drawdowns than its competitors.
    Two long-tenured managers (one is CEO, one is CIO) have invested over $1M each into the fund.
    Here's a PDF touting the performance of Parnassus Core Equity Fund.
  • Barry Ritholtz’s 12 Investing Tips
    I don’t think @davidmoran likes the post. No problem. I agree Ritholtz’s “tips” are overly simplistic. Probably intended for a less educated and sophisticated audience than here. And I personally agree with some and disagree with others of his ideas.
    Agree: Consider crowd behavior when making investments. Just because a fund or asset has appreciated rapidly isn’t in itself a reason to jump on the bandwagon. Consider the “crowd” (hot money) effect that might be in play before investing.
    Agree Reduce investing friction.. Here, he’s talking about expenses. Yes, I’ve been making a conscious effort to move to ETFs having lower fees than some of the funds I previously owned.
    Disagree : Avoid making predictions and forecasts. I can’t help myself from doing this, While I don’t go “all in” or “all out” on an investment based on prediction, I do try to “tilt” one way or another based on what I think is coming down the road. I’m currently cautious about the coming year. I’m guessing the Fed will have to back down somewhat on their path toward rate hikes due to market turmoil. Just a guess. Probably wrong.
    Not sure: Hold on to your winners and cut your losses short. I see this working for many others. He’s right in a sense. Yet, I do find myself bailing early from winning positions and “locking in” gains. To be honest, the habit has not served me well. I’d be wealthier if I’d let more of the winners run longer.
    Gosh. Fatuous is pretty harsh. Rather than take offense, I’m inclined to defer to the wisdom the longtime host of PBS’s Prairie Home Companion, Garrison Keillor.
    Whatever Floats Your Boat
  • Brokerage experience with T. Rowe Price
    Follow up to my previous post:
    The 225-5132 number allowed me to leave a call back number. The Price rep called in 20 minutes, I gave him my info, and he said "Oops, you're an "elite" customer because of the size of your account. I'll have to transfer you to a special rep". Apparently, at Price, being an "elite" customer doesn't grant you the right to a call back, so I had to listen to the music for 35 minutes while outside chopping wood waiting for the special rep!
    He couldn't explain the online/phone disabled either, but he was able make the Direct Deposit happen through the back office.
    Next I asked about the Irrevocable Trust. It turns out they've had all the correct paperwork for the last 2 weeks, but someone dropped the ball by not re-submitting it. The special rep said it should be done by the end of today.
    PS I doubled the size of my redemption from what I originally planned. If TR Price does such a sloppy job of managing accounts, I want to leave as little money as possible with them. If it wasn't for the tax hit, I'd liquidate everything!
  • Brokerage experience with T. Rowe Price
    It's been almost 3 weeks, and TR Price still hasn't worked on my disclaimer trust which I wrote the Medallion Signature complaint about earlier. But that's not why I'm posting today. With the large distributions that went into my Government Money account, I wanted to have some of it Direct Deposited to my bank account (eventually to Vanguard). Guess what - Unavailable Online
    Online/phone redemption disabled. Call (800) 225-5132 to enable redemptions!
    If you can't redeem online or by phone, what do you have to do? Go to their office in Baltimore? If it wasn't for the capital gains hit I would take, I'd get out of Price altogether.
  • Investment strategy for an 18 year old
    Howdy folks,
    Thanks so much for your advice and kind words.
    I'm having him read all of your comments, but I'm leaning in the direction of starting a Roth IRA with one of the better families. We've got long standing accounts at both Price and Fido, so that's pretty straight forward. Have him open with $1000 and contribute $50 a month and invest it for now in a Target Date or Allocation type fund until he builds the principal and learns more.
    again, thanks much,
    and wear the damn mask,
    rono
  • What moves are you considering for 2022?
    I suspect we are now beyond the 2020 crash rebound period, and I think we will have to accommodate more rising interest rate impact. I don't have strong predictions about particular funds, but I am expecting bond oefs like IOFIX will come back down to earth and have more "normal" returns.
    Today’s 3 cent gain continued a recent pattern of outsized gains one to two trading days before ex dividend date. This is the reverse of the pattern in effect prior to 2020. Their portfolio is trading around 96 cents on the dollar up considerably from the 60 to 80 cents since 2017. So I agree its best days are behind it and thinking 2022 may only see a 4% to 5% total return. Hopefully I am dead wrong. Can’t think of many or any bond fund that had such a stellar return this year. The managers feel the fund has another 25% to 30% before the legacy non agencies play is over. I would probably cut those numbers in half if only because fund managers in general tend to be overly optimistic. Sure has been a unique and special bond fund over the years and if one was able to sidestep the carnage in March 2020 and return the following month.
  • ARKK on the rocks …
    Bloomberg reports Wood’s flagship fund is off over 1% today after falling 1% yesterday. It’s been a nasty year for her and her investors. I quickly looked at DFKG - a stock I’ve messed around with and it’s under $27.50 late today. That’s one she’s been buying in gobs - but at much higher prices. I’ve been in and out a couple times. The stock topped out around $75 early in the year. I owned and sold it in the mid $40s. Bought again around $28. Sold near $30. But if I’d been more patient, it topped out around $32-33 a few days later - before falling off the wagon again. Mutual funds / ETFs are so much less risky and easier on the nerves!
    Worth considering … Is the action in Wood’s funds an omen of some sort? The high flyers are getting their wings clipped. What’s next?
    ARKK -23.17% YTD. down 1.8% late today. / “There but for the grace of God … ”
  • Bond / Income fund with modest exposure to precious metals?
    Thanks. I’ve long held PRPFX as a staple. It’s much more aggressively positioned in equities & metals than what I’m looking for for a bit of play money. HSTRX is a weird bird. Mixing in around 10% gold / pm miners was apparently Hussman’s way of “goosing” returns on what looks like a bond fund on the surface. It hasn’t done badly. I compared it to TMSRX. Think it’s ahead for 3 years.
    Probably somebody will open an ETF based on that concept in the future.
  • Inflation
    Howdy folks,
    As for the Baron suggesting 1/3 each to real estate, securities and rare art - run your own numbers. All of your SS, pension, IRAs, stocks, bonds, cash, are securities. Most of us are way top heavy in this category. Real estate is easy. Rare art? Up to the individual but has to be comparable to rare art.
    Side bet that most of you blow chunks on your computer screen.
    and so it goes,
    peace and wear the damn mask,
    rono
  • Just one day, but more "red" than I've seen for awhile.....
    I think it’s worthwhile to keep this thread alive at least until the end of the year. The markets are somewhat schizophrenic today with the NAS down .5% and the Dow ahead by .25%. S&P flat (as of 1:00 PM.). I think a lot of us are anticipating a change in sentiment some time during the new year.
    While The Nikkei 225 fell around .25% in Monday’s session, it more than made up for that with a +1.37% jump overnight. FLJP which I’ve owned a few weeks is up a bit today. Hard to beat the .09% ER if you’re looking to diversify away from the U.S. / Europe.
    Not mentioned perhaps is that markets are presently trading on very thin volume due to many traders being off. Some days now only a fraction of the shares normally traded change hands. Likely, this impacts / exaggerates movements in both directions so that they may not represent the valuation as determined by the broader investment community. That was the subtle message in my reference to “slow” markets and the lack of really good coverage by some financial media outlets this week - as their staffs are curtailed due to the holidays.
    Thanks @Derf for this thread,
  • Bond / Income fund with modest exposure to precious metals?
    I was going to make a small spec play on HSTRX - which mixes mostly AAA rated credit with about 10% miners. I think this may work in the coming year as the s*** hits the fan (inflation / Fed moves / higher volatility). But I was met with a $49.95 transaction fee, so backed out. Who would’ve thought this guy wouldn’t be eager for buyers of his mostly failing funds? I do have quite a bit of exposure to commodities & miners. Wanted something tamer and actively managed. Anything else out there like HSTRX that would be free to buy at Fido?
  • How Did Moderate-Allocation 60-40 Do?
    Thanks guys. No intent to diminish a fund I’ve owned since the late 90s. But I seriously doubt whether PRWCX would hold up as well in a bear market today as it did in 2008 (when it fell 27%). It was 2.3 months later (3/10/‘09) when equities finally stopped falling and turned up. So the drawdown must have reached 30% at one point. The fund’s a lot bigger (less nimble) today and bonds (which Giroux currently despises) wouldn’t provide any offset to falling equities. Also, it’s more concentrated in mega-caps - much different than when first conceived in the 90s.
    As I noted, it has a lot to do with time horizon. If as a retired single person or couple you can watch your entire investment portfolio fall 25-30% in a year’s time and not panic and sell out (likely near the bottom), than a 100% allocation to PRWCX probably makes sense. I “bought-down” all through that year, which eventually paid off. But a -21% beating in ‘08 was hard enough to stomach.
    Not trying to trash the fund. Certainly it would hold up better than most equity funds. Just looking at it through the theoretical concept of an older retiree putting 100% in it. In fairness to Mike, he did say “PRWCX and maybe a couple others.”
    PS - @MikeM - Maybe TB will start his own fund, or at least lend his name to one. I’ve a feeling it would sell. :)
  • Small-caps at all?
    @JonGaltill: I had a somewhat similar experience with BCSIX, a long-time SCG holding that had a miserable year. I reduced exposure but kept a small bit because it is a closed fund. The fund had drifted into MCG territory, although that is not a problem with MSSMX. Brown Capital has concentrated funds that trade infrequently. They do well with SC stocks, but their record with MC stocks is middling. MSSMX seems to be invested in hot stocks that just went belly-up this year. I do look at my tax situation before selling to see if shedding a loser will raise or lower my CG.
    We own two MS funds, MGGPX and GLCAX, Kristian Heugh funds. I reduced MGGPX, but increased GLCAX in a tax deferred account just after a huge ST and LTCG distribution in hopes that 2021 was just one bad year. Our initial purchase was really badly timed, not the first time that’s happened. I’m not sure if my approach, admittedly scattershot, can give you any insight. BTW, that’s a handsome chart from Fidelity.
  • How Did Moderate-Allocation 60-40 Do?
    Giroux (46) has been with PRWCX since mid-2006 (he was only 31 then). So, he has been through the Great Financial Crisis (2007-09), the Covid selloff (2020) and other minor selloffs in between. He may have 2-3 decades ahead of him unless he gets bored. But his new roles at Price should keep things interesting for him. PRWCX is closed to new investors, but those who hold it don't have to worry about manager change any time soon.