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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Concerns about FPACX
    This is a fund David owns and keeps in high regard as per his input on this site.This is supposed to be a cautious mod allocation fund but lost about 6.5% in the past year with about 25% cash in assets, ie loss greater than the s&p 500 index by about 2%. FPACX has lost about 25% of its AUM in the past few years. Has Steve Romick and his clan lost their supposed mandate? Or is it very poor equity choices. What say thee?
  • Grandeur Peak reopens some of its funds with restrictions
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/915802/000139834419000618/fp0038543_497.htm
    497 1 fp0038543_497.htm
    FINANCIAL INVESTORS TRUST
    SUPPLEMENT DATED JANUARY 14, 2019
    TO THE SUMMARY PROSPECTUSES AND PROSPECTUS FOR
    THE GRANDEUR PEAK EMERGING MARKETS OPPORTUNITIES FUND,
    GRANDEUR PEAK GLOBAL OPPORTUNITIES FUND,
    GRANDEUR PEAK INTERNATIONAL OPPORTUNITIES FUND AND
    GRANDEUR PEAK GLOBAL REACH FUND
    (EACH A “FUND,” AND TOGETHER, THE “FUNDS”)
    DATED AUGUST 31, 2018
    Effective immediately, the Grandeur Peak Global Opportunities Fund, Grandeur Peak International Opportunities Fund, and Grandeur Peak Global Reach Fund will re-open to existing shareholders and to new shareholders who purchase directly from Grandeur Peak Funds. Financial advisors and retirement plans with clients in one of these Funds will be able to invest in the Fund for both existing as well as new clients.
    In addition, effective immediately, the Grandeur Peak Emerging Markets Opportunities Fund will re-open to new shareholders who purchase directly from Grandeur Peak Funds. This Fund is already open to existing shareholders.
    INVESTORS SHOULD RETAIN THIS SUPPLEMENT
    FOR FUTURE REFERENCE
  • Chuck Jaffe's Money Life Show: Guest: Andrew Foster, Manager , Seafarer Overseas G&I Fund: (SFGIX)
    FYI: (Slide mouse to 16:30 minutes for Andrew Foster interview.)
    Andrew Foster, portfolio manager at the Seafarer Growth and Income Fund, said he expects 2019 to be better for emerging markets than last year was, but warned that it won't be a great year, just better than the recent past. More importantly, with emerging markets coming back, he expects them to deliver the diversification benefits that they mostly have fallen short of in recent years. Also on the show, Gerg McBride of BankRate.com discusses they pay raises workers are expecting -- or not -- for the year ahead, David Trainer of New Constructs reviews his top Danger Zone picks from 2018, and Tom Plumb of the Plumb Funds has the Market Call.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.stitcher.com/podcast/moneylife-with-chuck-jaffe/e/58176652?autoplay=true
    M*: Snapshot SFGIX:
    https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/sfgix/quote.html
    Lipper Snapshot SFGIX:
    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/sfgix
    SFGIX Is Unranked In The (DEM) Fund Category By U.S. News & World Report:
    https://money.usnews.com/funds/mutual-funds/diversified-emerging-mkts/seafarer-overseas-growth-and-income-fund/sfgix
  • Recent MFO Premium Site Webinar Charts & Video
    Thank you all for attending!
    Please find link to charts here.
    Please find link to conference video here.
    And, below is Brad's beautiful big picture view ... he was awesome!
    c
    image
    -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    As highlighted in this month's commentary, we have two sessions planned, one hour each nominally, on Tuesday 15 January 2019 at 2pm and 5pm eastern ... 11am and 2 pm pacific.
    Like last time, we will employ easy-to-use the Zoom web conferencing tool.
    Brad Ferguson of Halter Ferguson Financial will highlight how he uses the premium site to help 1) find funds that best match his clients needs, and 2) "find the next Robert Gardiner."
    We'll also discuss latest upgrades, including a lightning fast, highly addictive MultiSearch tool.
    If you've not already done so, please register here for first session:
    https://zoom.us/meeting/register/c6501c7fc6e7d51bd746f627e8486654
    Or, here for second session:
    https://zoom.us/meeting/register/ff9379c674d9c5a6d746f627e8486654
    Thank you!
  • Experience with Target Funds?
    Has anyone figured out why T. Rowe offers 2 distinct lines (“Retirement” and “Target”)? I looked at the 2015 version of each and both have a glide path (which grows more conservative over time) and both earned Price’s “Moderate” risk assessment. If I had the time, I’d enjoy digging deeper - but not at this time.
    One thought is that one line became saturated with investments to the point where it was putting too much stress (bloat) on the underlying funds it invests in. So, a new line using different underlying funds would help with that. Seems like I did read some “rumblings” re a possible saturation point many years ago in one of their Retirement funds reports.
    Additionally, they may contract out with some big corporations to meet their employees’ retirement needs (401K and other). Thus, different corporations might buy into different versions of what appear to be very similar investment products.
  • Experience with Target Funds?
    Though I've never used target date funds, I think they're reasonable options for people who don't want to think much about their investments. I regard them as substantially the same as robo advisors. They both provide all-in-one allocations based on an objective (retirement) and a given level of risk tolerance.
    Bogle, in 2013, did not like these funds because they were based on historical returns of bonds (2013 yields were very low) and because (he claimed) they invested in bond funds tracking the US aggregate bond index, which was Treasury-heavy.
    Since 2013, bond yields are up (somewhat) and Bogle himself now projects lower stock returns than their historical average. Each of those changes argues for returning to a more normal stock/bond allocation. That is, a complaint that might have been valid for the special circumstances coming out of the Great Recession holds less sway now and generally. In addition, some fund families have adjusted their funds to be more stock-heavy.
    In 2013 the US aggregate bond index did have a lot of Treasuries (Bogle said 2/3 in the article). Today, VTBIX (the domestic bond component of VTTHX) has just 41% in Treasuries, AGG has 39%. In addition, several fund families spread bond investments beyond a single US bond fund.
    For example, about half of T. Rowe Price's TRRJX 's bond allocation is in New Income (PRCIX), only 1/5 of which is in Treasuries. Like several other 2035 funds, TRRJX supplements this with a long term Treasury fund (1/6 of its bond allocation). It rounds out the remaining 1/3 bond allocation with TNIBX (int'l bonds), RPIEX (nontraditional), PREMX (EM bonds), PRFRX (floating rate), and PRHYX (high yield).
    The figures that hank quoted need to be put into context. These days, especially with opt-out retirement plans (employees are automatically enrolled unless they opt out), a large number of participants simply wind up in the plans without making investment choices.
    The default for most of these plans used to be a MMF (or stable value fund), but is now a target date fund matched to the participant's age. Thus one sees a high percentage of assets and participants in target date funds. It's not by choice, it's by absence of choice.
    The hard part in selecting a target date plan is to pick the right family (each family offers a different glide path) and to position yourself at the right spot (year) along that path. Some families are more aggressive than others. Some glide paths are more oriented toward getting you to retirement and then just generating income, while others are more intent on maintaining a measure of growth even through retirement.
    Personally, I like T. Rowe Price's Retirement target date funds, because they're more aggressive and oriented toward growth through retirement. But that's just me. YMMV. In fact, Price has two different series. This one, and a more sedate one more focused on simply generating income in retirement.
    Here's a M* analysis page on the Price Retirement series (I don't think you need a M* account to read it): https://news.morningstar.com/pdfs/stusa04omn.pdf
    And T. Rowe Price's page describing both its Retirement funds and its more conservative Target funds: https://www.troweprice.com/personal-investing/mutual-funds/target-date-funds.html
    P.S. Regarding Bogle and simplicity: "Everything should be made as simple as possible but not simpler."
    https://quoteinvestigator.com/2011/05/13/einstein-simple/
  • Callan Periodic table is out
    @Old_Skeet: I took the low road. Bottom 3 for last 20,10,5 years.
    20 yrs. non & u.s. fixed 11 times , cash 8
    10 yrs. non & u.s. fixed 7 - 6 times, em &cash 5 a piece
    5 yrs. non-fixed 3 , em,cash, non u.s equty, u.s fixed, hi yield 2 a piece.
    Good investing to all, Derf
  • Experience with Target Funds?
    @Starchid, Thanks,
    I don’t have an answer as to whether this fund is the optimum choice for you. But I think if you could close your eyes for 15-25 years and not look at it, you’d be quite pleased with the compounded return. Trouble is, most of here like to look often. That leads to the inevitable comparisons to other types of investments. And from time to time one type or another will outperform (over shorter 5-10 year periods).
    That .14% ER allows Vanguard to keep more of your contribution compounding for you rather than paying fund expenses. It’s refreshing to hear from someone still contributing to a plan. Take the advice / musings of us “oldsters” with a grain of salt. At 70+ capital preservation starts to become a paramount concern.
  • Experience with Target Funds?

    This is very helpful Hank. Thank you! I admire the simplicity of the fund, (which seems puzzling why Bogle would be apposed to) and that I can add my $6000 a year into it and be done with it. And yes, the low fee is attractive to me. My only reservation would be the amount of Int'l I would be purchasing, but I guess the diversification couldn'y hurt. Like you said, there could be worse choices out there.
    “Half of all 401(k) accounts now hold 100 percent of savings in a target date fund. Just over 30 percent of overall 401(k) assets are in target date funds ...” (2018).
    https://www.forbes.com/sites/johnwasik/2018/11/12/what-it-takes-to-be-a-401k-millionaire/
    @Starchild - It certainly appears a good many Americans are using target date funds. But you probably won’t find very many here who have used the funds to any degree. The apparent contradiction is largely explained by the fact that those who actively read / post on a mutual fund investing board probably are the type of investors who prefer to manage their investments directly. In addition, they possess a higher degree of investment knowledge and a higher investment comfort level than the average American.
    That 50% participation rate cited in the Forbes article is due in some measure to many plan sponsors using target date funds as the default option in their plans. I’d say that for many who have very busy lives working and raising families these funds are certainly superior to not investing at all or letting their investments sit in a money market fund. That, I think, is the primary rationale behind their existence (along with an additional way for fund companies to garner assets).
    Eager to hear to what extent MFO participants use / have used these vehicles. More likely, I think, MFO members may know family members, neighbors, etc. who use them). On a few rare occasions I’ve put money into one or more of Price’s target date funds for shorter periods because the particular holdings were useful at that time and the ER looked attractive. That’s not what they were designed for, of course.
    @Ted’s link to Bogle is interesting. I’d certainly agree that bonds no longer offer the degree of protection (against equity sell-offs) they did a couple decades ago when many of these these funds were devised - because of still historically low rates. The recent late 2018 market carnage tended to bear that out. For one, I’m not prepared to write bonds off entirely, thinking there are a lot of hybrid or diversified offerings in bondland which are still worth holding for diversification purposes. (Possibly fodder for another thread?)
    -
    Re: @Starchild’s holding: A glance shows VTTHX (Vanguard Target 2035) invested exclusively in Vanguard’s index funds, with roughly 75% in equities (domestic & international) and 25% in fixed income. It has a remarkably low 0.14% ER. No doubt, the glide slope will soften its (somewhat high) risk profile over the years.
  • mommie Vangurad keeping snowflakes safe No more inverse ETFs
    I agree with @hank, and would go even further. What @sma3 did was put up a subject for discussion - trading policies and product offerings of brokerages. While it was obviously motivated by Vanguard's new policy, it's a different subject. Linking to the Vanguard policy provides context, as opposed being the topic itself.
    In that spirit, I link to a NYTimes article discussing how inverse funds are specifically designed for short term trading.
    https://mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/46922/some-funds-win-when-others-lose-but-when-the-others-win#latest
    [I]nverse E.T.F.s are designed to function as a very short-term trading strategy ...
    "These funds are built for short-term speculation. They’re designed to be outliers." ...
    “This is trading, not investing,”
    While the article is exclusively about inverse funds, the comments apply as well to what Vanguard is calling leveraged funds as well.
    The reason why I say "what Vanguard is calling" is that Vanguard is not ending sales of funds that use leverage. It sells a variety of funds that use leverage as a fundamental portion of their investing strategy. (Just check for "leveraging risk" in many funds' prospectuses.) It's not leveraging per se that Vanguard is balking at, but the fact that these funds are inherently short term investments.
    Other brokerages also limit short term trading. Perhaps not as severely, but if the test is whether they impose any limits, most do. For example, Fidelity will shut down a customer's Fidelity fund trading if the customer trades too often:
    http://personal.fidelity.com/products/trading/Trading_Platforms_Tools/excessive_trading_policies.shtml
    Fidelity also puts up a barrier to trading funds it considers risky, such as VMNFX. You my need to attest that you are a sophisticated investor. Apparently, money alone doesn't talk loudly enough.
    http://personal.fidelity.com/accounts/pdf/dia.pdf
    Another form of barrier or limit is cost. For example, TDA used to sell Vanguard ETFs at no charge. They changed their policy to limit the amount of services they were giving away "for free". In contrast, Vanguard imposes no such economic barrier on the ETFs it sells.
    Barron's, The Latest Casualty in the ETF Fee War—Objective Advice
    https://www.barrons.com/articles/the-latest-casualty-in-the-etf-fee-warobjective-advice-1518840543
    (Did Ted link to this one also? Who knows? I'm citing it, not using it to start a thread.)
    Although TD promoted the new NTF platform’s increase from 100 to “250+” ETFs as an increase in consumer choice, the move marked the defeat of truly open architecture for ETFs.
    To whatever extent the "nanny" complaint has merit, it could have been raised when Vanguard first went NTF on most ETFs:
    We exclude them for a good reason. Leveraged and inverse ETFs are intentionally designed to be bought and sold within a single trading day, making them extremely speculative in nature. We—and the vast majority of the Vanguard community—prefer to think long-term. It's as simple as that!
    You can still buy and sell leveraged and inverse ETFs in your Vanguard Brokerage Account. You'll simply pay the same commissions as you would to trade individual stocks.
    https://personal.vanguard.com/web/cf/multivariate/experiments/etf/index.html
    (Click on "Which ETFs are and aren't commission-free" - this link will surely vanish when Vanguard stops selling leveraged ETFs altogether.)
    Isn't that the free market at its best? Brokerages differentiating themselves to appeal to different market segments.
  • Experience with Target Funds?
    Thank you! As it stands, this fund is currently at 80/20 mix. We use American Funds for our 529, and was considering using one of their funds for this account, such as AMECX or one of the others they offer, but their performance really doesn't seem much better, esp considering the costs. Any input on AF, or an alternative strategy would be appreciated.
  • Experience with Target Funds?
    “Half of all 401(k) accounts now hold 100 percent of savings in a target date fund. Just over 30 percent of overall 401(k) assets are in target date funds ...” (2018).
    https://www.forbes.com/sites/johnwasik/2018/11/12/what-it-takes-to-be-a-401k-millionaire/
    @Starchild - It certainly appears a good many Americans are using target date funds. But you probably won’t find very many here who have used the funds to any degree. The apparent contradiction is largely explained by the fact that those who actively read / post on a mutual fund investing board probably are the type of investors who prefer to manage their investments directly. In addition, they possess a higher degree of investment knowledge and a higher investment comfort level than the average American.
    That 50% participation rate cited in the Forbes article is due in some measure to many plan sponsors using target date funds as the default option in their plans. I’d say that for many who have very busy lives working and raising families these funds are certainly superior to not investing at all or letting their investments sit in a money market fund. That, I think, is the primary rationale behind their existence (along with an additional way for fund companies to garner assets).
    Eager to hear to what extent MFO participants use / have used these vehicles. More likely, I think, MFO members may know family members, neighbors, etc. who use them). On a few rare occasions I’ve put money into one or more of Price’s target date funds for shorter periods because the particular holdings were useful at that time and the ER looked attractive. That’s not what they were designed for, of course.
    @Ted’s link to Bogle is interesting. I’d certainly agree that bonds no longer offer the degree of protection (against equity sell-offs) they did a couple decades ago when many of these these funds were devised - because of still historically low rates. The recent late 2018 market carnage tended to bear that out. For one, I’m not prepared to write bonds off entirely, thinking there are a lot of hybrid or diversified offerings in bondland which are still worth holding for diversification purposes. (Possibly fodder for another thread?)
    -
    Re: @Starchild’s holding: A glance shows VTTHX (Vanguard Target 2035) invested exclusively in Vanguard’s index funds, with roughly 75% in equities (domestic & international) and 25% in fixed income. It has a remarkably low 0.14% ER. No doubt, the glide slope will soften its (somewhat high) risk profile over the years.
  • Road To Retirement: Four Rules For Handling Bear Markets
    Nicely written article. One of the things that he did not mention that I usually have done in past market declines since I hold more cash than most folks do is to buy more of my best investment ideas. Most of the time stock market rebounds come fast with some good fury associated with them. So, to play the rebound I use special investment positions (spiffs) which I will then trim as the market recovers. A mutual fund that I own that does this actomatically is CTFAX. Most of the time it is about 90% fixed income and reduces its bond allocation and increase its equity allocation during stock market declines. As the markets recover it then reduces its equity positions (booking profit) and increases it fixed income allocation. Below is a link that explains how CTFAX works in more detail.
    https://www.columbiathreadneedleus.com/investment-products/mutual-funds/Columbia-Thermostat-Fund/Class-A/details/?cusip=197199755
    To see how the funds has changed its positioning during the recent market decline click on the asset allocation update box.
    Since, I was in the process of changing my asset allocation by reducing my equity allocation by about 10% and rasing my fixed income and cash allocations by 5% each during the last stock market decline I did not engage any spiff (special investment) positions.
    Currently, my (all weather) asset allocation is 20% to 30% cash, 35% to 40% fixed income and 35% to 40% equity. A safe harbor asset allocation, for me, would be 30% to 40% cash, 30% to 35% fixed income and 30% to 35% equity.
  • Callan Periodic table is out
    Hello: For what it is worth. I've been looking at the table and did an analysis of the top three asset class leaders for the past 20 years, 10 years and 5 year lookback periods. For the twenty year lookback period real estate appeared 10 times, emerging markets 9 times and US fixed income 8 times along with non US equity. For the ten year lookback period US large caps appeared 5 times and real estate, emerging markets, US fixed income along with high yield all appeared four times. For the five year lookback period US large caps appeared 4 times, US fixed income 3 times and high yield and cash appeared 2 times. These were the top three leaders over the respective time periods according to the table.
    With the above in mind this is one of the reasons I feel I am better off with a well diversified portfolio not knowing which asset class will be the annual top three leaders thus I feel it is better for me to own and position some of each. Now, I might hold more of some over others based upon my perception of what might be working (or going to work) the best in the near term.
    So, for me, the table does provide investment value and demostrates why diverification works.
  • First Eagle Overseas Fund to reopen to new investors
    there's a 5% load; why pay that?

    First Eagle Overseas Fund Class A (SGOVX)
    This fund is now available NTF (No Transaction Fee) and offered load-waived through Fidelity.
  • First Eagle Overseas Fund to reopen to new investors
    I had been thinking of this before, but it had been closed. Is this a good one for long term? for me is 10 to 15 years