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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • IOFIX - I guess it works until it doesn't
    Down another 17% today.
    So, clearly, everybody running for door (including me) and no willing buyers.
    Extraordinary 5 years, until it wasn't, like Mona posted.
    Really, really hard couple days.
    Oh, boy! Am I glad I didn't invest! I was going to in my IRA, but I bought ANGLX instead. Pray for me.
  • IOFIX - I guess it works until it doesn't
    Down another 17% today.
    So, clearly, everybody running for door (including me) and no willing buyers.
    Extraordinary 5 years, until it wasn't, like Mark and Mona posted.
    Really, really hard couple days.
  • Federal Reserve backstops muni bond market as coronavirus hammers cash-strapped states and cities
    https://m.stamfordadvocate.com/business/article/Federal-Reserve-backstops-muni-bond-market-as-15145736.php
    /Federal Reserve backstops muni bond market as coronavirus hammers cash-strapped states and cities
    The Federal Reserve capped off an unprecedented week of action Friday by extending a lifeline to cash-strapped state and local governments that are about to borrow large sums as they deal with skyrocketing costs from coronavirus safety measures./
    Situations appear getting worse now. Feds and govt may not have nothing left/no where to hide next few wks after running out money
    Any chance usa would bankrupt in few months?
    Armageddon coming?
  • How to invest in time of turmoil
    Incognito article search
    Https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.barrons.com/amp/articles/how-to-invest-in-a-time-of-turmoil-51584728227
    How to invest in time of turmoil.
    /The job of a sell-side analyst is to have a market forecast, says Inigo Fraser Jenkins, the outspoken portfolio strategist at Bernstein Research. But given the unprecedented collapse in growth expectations, accompanied by central bank interventions and the slump in asset prices, most strategists find themselves unable to price major benchmarks like the S&P 500 index. Still, he says, a strategist can provide a framework for looking at the market and probable future returns. He even says it could be time to buy stocks, if you have a two-year horizon./
  • When to start buying
    Hi sir - thought maybe forming bottom past few days...thought we would get more upswing from today ... perhaps breakthrough at sp500 hovering around 2200 levels
    DOWS -18% For week
    When you see number deaths usa severely up and market still up/curve starting flattening, maybe good time to tiptoe in
    Energy and other sectors appear extremely cheap though
  • Are Municipal-Bonds Always a Safe Haven
    Easy, NO. look at YTD performance.
    I try not to use the word SAFE but volatile.
    When rates are going up quickly Treasuries are one of the worse categories
    When rates are going down, Treasuries are one of the best categories.
    When a black swan hits, Treasuries are one of the best categories.
    And when Treasuries are good longer term will do even better and why TLT is better than Vanguard Short-Term Treasury ETF (VGSH). See (chart)
  • When to start buying
    I will not start buying longer-term until I see the following:
    When to buy Stocks? When the price will cross 100 days moving average.
    SP500 (chart) from 2008 to 2009. See the 3 moving averages below. 100 MA(red line) is the best, not too early and not too late. For the current chart, use this (link).
    When to buy CEFs? PCI(chart). Use weekly MACD and enter when it's positive.
    When to buy Bond OEFs: PIMIX (chart). You want to see several weeks of uptrend
    With my own money, I'm mostly in cash/MM since 2/28 and at 99+% in MM since March 09. Since 2/28 I mostly trade and back to MM. I don't recommend it to others. Just wait for the above for an entry.
  • IOFIX - I guess it works until it doesn't
    In a meltdown + selling pressure, many bonds fund would collapse. Even MINT was down -1.35% yesterday. YTD, MUNI (not HY Munis) which are usually "safe" are down too much, only treasuries survived.
    2018 Deja Vu.
    But, coming out of this mess we will have plenty of opportunities and IOFIX could be one of them.
  • Federal Reserve Gives Emergency Aid to Mutual Funds
    That's a good question. These days I haven't been paying too much attention to muni MMFs because they're paying less than online bank accounts (after tax). So it doesn't make much sense to take on their additional risk. (Aside from considerations like Medicare IRMAA where gross income is what matters.)
    It's hard to read into the government announcement.
    It could be that the wording was sloppy and the intent was to cover prime and muni MMFs. (I checked the N-MFP filing for VMSXX to verify that it is not considered a prime fund.)
    It could be that the government doesn't consider muni MMFs to be at enough risk to offer this loan option.
    It could be that the government does consider muni MMFs to be at higher risk but doesn't want to handle non-federal securities as collateral for its loans.
    FWIW, the true NAV of VMSXX over the past six months has been consistently over $1, ranging between $1.0001 and $1.0004 until the past three days where it dropped to $0.9998, $0.9995, and $0.9992 as of yesterday. Fidelity's FMOXX has generally had a higher NAV ($1.0012 to $1.0017), but it too has fallen in the last week from $1.0014 to $1.0007, likewise below its normal range.
    Perhaps it is time to start watching these figures more closely.

    msf,
    Will this support VMSXX?
    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/20/the-federal-reserve-is-expanding-its-asset-purchases-to-include-municipal-bonds.html
    Mona
  • Coronavirus Selloff Leaves Just One U.S. Active Equity Mutual Fund Positive for the Year
    BTW "tiny" doesn't begin to describe CEGSX - it has $139k per Morningstar, has a 1.75% expense ratio, and charges a load.
  • Coronavirus Selloff Leaves Just One U.S. Active Equity Mutual Fund Positive for the Year
    But still leaves the 10-year return for HSGFX at -6.54% PER YEAR -- or a loss of 50%. In a bull market. And that's despite being up almost 12% ytd.
  • From the "We Have Your Backs" Department
    In stark contrast this is how it's supposed to be done:
    Stories of Hope
  • Would you buy a 50 year Treasury?
    Such ideas are being discussed in the Executive Branch.
    White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow likes the idea, one of the people said. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, although initially skeptical, is now more willing to do it, the people said.
    Do they really think they're going to get people to buy a fifty year bond for 2 - 3%? They've been having problems selling the tens.
    How about 8%. I might think about buying such a thing at that yield.
    But let's imagine 5% or 6%. All of a sudden that income annuity my wife can get from TIAA looks pretty good. So we sell out all the stocks and bonds in her IRA to finance it. And I start looking around for a reputable income annuity for my IRA. And I sell all the stuff in my IRA, if it's worth anything at that point.
    There are probably rosier scenarios. Maybe someone could point one out to me.
  • The Rise of Green Bonds
    I bought TIAA's TSBRX in January as part of my effort to move more of my IRA into bonds.
    It's off 4.82 since then. But it had a lower rating (BBB) and a longer duration (5.88) than the rest of the bond funds I bought. So, I'm not surprised it has fared worse. It was an outlier bet that my gloomy thoughts were wrong.
  • SPY and the 21st century. One ugly chart.
    This is not an example of technical analysis:
    image
    From DShort.com, AKA Advisor Perspectives -- as the graphic clearly states. .
    I'm not sure this chart is anything more than an interesting look back in time. But if you have one of those friends who is always pestering you about buying the index . . . send him the link. But only if you have done better. ;-)
    I used to follow the old dshort.com for his interesting charts through the thick of 2008 bust. Back in 2011 he sold to an outfit called Advisor Perspectives.
    But the charts continue to paint a picture of what is happening, courtesy of Jill Mislinski. And they publish a calendar of charts to come.
    There is a variety of interesting articles and commentaries on the rest of the site if you poke around. You won't be assaulted by obvious advertising. But somebody is paying the bills. Here is their about.
  • Old_Skeet's Market Barometer ... Spring & Summer Reporting ... and, My Positioning
    Hi guys,
    The barometer as of market close Thursday maintains its reading of 180 indicating that the S&P 500 Index is extremely oversold. I am also detecting that a bottom is forming as three of the data feeds and influences that the barometer use are green lighting. Naturally, this is a process and there is still a good bit of market votatility that most likely will follow. But, things look to be improving for equities.
    Old_Skeet has been reducing cash and raising my allocation to equities. With this, I have temporairly moved to a 15% cash, 40% income and 45% equity allocation to play the anticipated equity rebound. Currently, I favor equity income over fixed income as equity income has been beaten up pretty badly, thus far, while fixed income is now starting to feel the effects of the storm. My fixed income sleeve is down, for the rolling week, by -7.8% while my domestic equity income sleeve is down -3.1% and my global equity income sleeve is down -5.5%. Thus, I'm thinking equity is the better move at the moment as it is showing some rebound life.
    With this, I continue to shop the equity income isles for bargins as the short volume for the Index has been in decline for the past three days. In addition, I am also nibbling in the growth area of my portfolio.
    Take care ... and, I wish all ... "Good Investing."
    Old_Skeet
  • From the "We Have Your Backs" Department
    From the DailyBeast: Sen. Kelly Loeffler Dumped Millions in Stock After Coronavirus Briefing. (Sens. Burr and Inhofe also. Loeffler is married to Jeffrey Sprecher, the chairman of the New York Stock Exchange, and the chairman and CEO of Intercontinental Exchange, which is NYSE's parent company.)
    From The Week: Senate Intelligence Chair unloaded stocks after reassuring public about coronavirus preparedness.
    Daily Beast article here
    The Week Article Here
  • IOFIX - I guess it works until it doesn't
    Looking at MFO almost every day, I've been feeling really stupid ever since going to 95% cash about a year ago. I felt that at 80, with a very decent pension & SS income, we didn't need the market exposure. I'm not feeling so stupid now, at least about finances.
    For you younger folks, hang in there- everything will be just fine in five or ten years, just like after 2008.
  • IOFIX - I guess it works until it doesn't
    Note: I was writing this when Charles posted his comment and didn't read his comment until mine was posted.
    Ouch! It looks like IOFIX may have just moved ahead of PONAX to claim the lead in the race for worst YTD performance in my Bond Pot. Remembering back to 2008, I owned a Pimco floating rate bond fund that tanked by maybe 25% in the later part of that year (it too was thought to be a steady Eddy). But, if my memory serves me correctly, it recouped most all of that loss by mid 2009. My Bond Pot holdings are primarily for income. So I will do nothing unless I become convinced that the party is truly over for IOFIX. Does anyone own a good crystal ball or have some useful knowledge about that topic....other than what Charles just noted above? (My gut tells me the pricing of holdings has probably tanked in this cash is king market environment.....but those lower prices are just paper losses on thinly traded bonds.)