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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Remember Money Market Funds?
    Thanks @bee I’m locked-out of this one as I read Bloomberg several times daily (for market data) and it’s all too easy to exceed their cap on free access to stories. But, it’s an intriguing question nonetheless. Sure I remember them.
    In around 1975-80 with double-digest inflation soaring and bank rates to savers paltry, average savers learned they could get extraordinarily high rates of return with MM funds. My first was from Deleware Investments - which no longer exists. 15-20% interest rates on short term savings in theses vehicles were prevalent and came with the “promise” (vs “guarantee”) of safety due to their $1 NAV. I even opened an account in one for my aging parents and gifted it to them. But, being children of the Great Depression, they quickly cashed it out and deposited the $$ in a local bank savings account - not trusting anyone from “out of town” to safeguard their money. (I could be wrong on this point ... but I think back than there were limits / controls set by government on the rates banks could pay savers.)
    Low prevailing rates today plus tighter restrictions on how they invest have pretty much wrecked these once popular savings vehicles. There are repercussions still to be fully realized IMHO.
    - Investors today are “reaching for yield” through less secure and more exotic cash substitutes.
    - Investors are taking greater risks than they otherwise would in the equity arena.
    - This has helped fuel a bubble in certain asset classes. Which ones is a matter of conjecture depending greatly on whom you ask and what their time horizon is.
    Finally, early money market funds were to an extent precursors to the now widely diverse mutual fund offerings. To a degree, they helped break down public distrust / reticence towards riskier forms of investing (ie equity funds, precious metals, selling puts).
  • Fidelity Disruptors Fund - FGDFX
    FGDFX is a new fund that M* places in the large blend category. I have been "test driving" the fund in my 2020 Challenge Portfolio over at the M* Discussion Forum with very encouraging results. Comparing it to SPY over its short history shows an excellent risk/reward profile, however the mangers are unknown to me:
    Total Return Max DD Sharpe Std Dev
    FGDFX 25.8% -3.1% 3.0 16.0
    SPY 13.4 -6.1 1.7 15.5
    According to Fidelity, the fund's "disruptive strategies seek to identify innovative developments that could signal new directions for delivering products and services to customers. Generally, these companies have or are developing new or unconventional ways of doing business that could disrupt and displace incumbents over time. This may include creating, providing, or contributing to new or expanded business models, value networks, pricing, and delivery of products and services."
    Normally, FGDFX invests in assets of five Fidelity funds that concentrate in the following areas, respectively:
    - automation
    - communication
    - finance
    - medicine
    - technology
    I am considering using this rather intriguing new fund in my personal portfolio, perhaps up to a max. of 10%. Would appreciate comments or suggestions from investors in the fund, or others who may have followed or have knowledge of the fund.
    Thanks,
    Fred
  • The counterintuitive truth about stock market valuations
    Crash - Yes, reversion to the mean can take a really long time. In 1998, markets were screaming higher as we watched the dot.com bubble grow more and more (very frothy). In 1999, the markets marched even higher and the party continued (before reality finally hit in 2000).
    So 2021 may well hold a solid year of market returns. But I feel like I've seen this movie before.
  • The counterintuitive truth about stock market valuations
    Rich valuations don't matter.... until they do. Markets correct, and this one will as well. For now, the bravado continues. We are waiting on another stimulus injection to keep the party going. Earnings mean nothing these days because the market is assuming a snap-back in 2021. That assumption may turn out to be folly.
  • Janet Yellen supposedly Biden's pick for Treasury Secretary
    Can you imagine what the unemployment rate would be if most of the on-line merchants were not hiring emergency staff to handle the pandemic business increase? Amazon alone has hired 427,300 new employees in the past ten months: that's 1400 people PER DAY, each and every day since January.
    Source: NY Times
  • Technology fund
    MSEGX, WCLD, ARKK, although the latter has some uncertainties with operational control in 2021.
  • The counterintuitive truth about stock market valuations
    Thanks! I rebalance in early January, always. Not always with the same goal in mind, now, in retirement. 80 high, 71 low temp in Kaneohe today. I was at the beach in Kailua yesterday. Nice, though quite breezy. But you don't feel any breeze in the water! Water temp was 80, too.
    https://www.best-of-oahu.com/kailua-beach-park.html
  • Janet Yellen supposedly Biden's pick for Treasury Secretary
    @wxman123,
    My comments were generic and not directed towards any particular political party or president.
    You may be conflating the economy with the stock market.
    They are not one and the same.
    Values for some important economic indicators are listed below.
    The U.S. unemployment rate was 6.9% for October which is nearly double the 3.5% rate in February.
    Wage growth for 2020:
    Jan: +4.27%
    Feb: +4.67%
    Mar: +0.75%
    Apr: -6.64%
    May: -3.66%
    Jun: -1.54%
    Jul: +0.07%
    Aug: +1.08%
    Sep: +1.89%
    Oct: +2.11%
    Quarterly GDP estimates for 2020:
    Q1: -5.0%
    Q2: -31.4%
    Q3: +33.1%
  • Janet Yellen supposedly Biden's pick for Treasury Secretary
    The DOW is an archaic, price-weighted index which does not accurately represent the economy.
    DOW 30K is not a great milestone and is of little significance.
    This just happens to be a nice, round number that certain writers unjustifiably emphasized.
    Also, the U.S. president generally doesn't deserve all the credit when the stock market performs well nor does he deserve all the blame when the market underperforms.
    There are too many other factors involved.
    Virtually every index is at a record high. The economy is doing better than anyone had a right to expect. Keep on with this denial nonsense, it's great for the GOP... right up there with "mostly peaceful protests" and "defund the police." Mark my words, the dems are going to be splintered with the Squad crew on one side and white elitist wanabees on the other. Meanwhile the GOP will pick up more minority voters over time to join with the heartland of the country, people who want safe streets and cash in their pocket rather than worrying about greenhouse gases.... and the suburban moms (who won the election for Biden, this time) will be wondering "what was I thinking." Nothing about this administration is going to benefit them.
  • Janet Yellen supposedly Biden's pick for Treasury Secretary
    Sorry wxman123 but to me you implied that Dow 30K was some great achievement and all should be happy across the land. You failed to address how that's important to the average person on the street or the world in general. Also neither you, I or anyone else knows how the market would have performed had Hillary gotten elected but history shows that the markets do better under a democratic administration (Google it yourself) and the markets were already on the upswing during the last few years of the Obama administration. Lastly it seems that plenty of people including many world leaders like Mr. Kerry even if you don't. From what I've seen he does a credible job free of corruption and ethical transgressions. I'd settle just for that.

    The fact that the DOW hit 30K is a great milestone and especially given the circumstances. There is a tremendous disparity between main street and wall street, true enough, but it's been that way for years. Trump didn't start the issue. Even if DOW 30K merely shows an economy that's holding it's own, that's still good. Operation Warp Speed, also good. Enterprise Zones, good. Paris Climate Treaty, Kerry's priority, maybe good for our grandkids but aside from that it's nothing more than interesting cocktail conversation for rich people who will be utterly unaffected by its economic consequences in the here and now. You are correct in that one can never prove what would have happened had circumstances been different, but all in all we are in a reasonable place as a country all things considered. What people who post about the supposed Trump disaster don't get is that they are as much a part of the problem as the other side in terms of divisiveness, which may be the biggest problem our country faces. Yes, Biden won, and I'm not going down the voter-fraud road, but there is a reason so many people still voted for Trump despite his notable flaws...and they are not all rednecks or idiots.
  • Value investing is struggling to remain relevant. What is VALUE
    This (article) is pretty good explaining VALUE

    It is now more than 20 years since the Nasdaq, an index of technology shares, crashed after a spectacular rise during the late 1990s. The peak in March 2000 marked the end of the internet bubble. The bust that followed was a vindication of the stringent valuation methods pioneered in the 1930s by Benjamin Graham, the father of “value” investing, and popularised by Warren Buffett. For this school, value means a low price relative to recent profits or the accounting (“book”) value of assets. Sober method and rigour were not features of the dotcom era. Analysts used vaguer measures, such as “eyeballs” or “engagement”. If that was too much effort, they simply talked up “the opportunity”.
    ....
    This would be comforting. It would validate a particular approach to valuing companies that has been relied upon for the best part of a century by some of the most successful investors. But the uncomfortable truth is that some features of value investing are ill-suited to today’s economy. As the industrial age gives way to the digital age, the intrinsic worth of businesses is not well captured by old-style valuation methods, according to a recent essay by Michael Mauboussin and Dan Callahan of Morgan Stanley Investment Management.
    The job of stock picking remains to take advantage of the gap between expectations and fundamentals, between a stock’s price and its true worth. But the job has been complicated by a shift from tangible to intangible capital—from an economy where factories, office buildings and machinery were key to one where software, ideas, brands and general know-how matter most. The way intangible capital is accounted for (or rather, not accounted for) distorts measures of earnings and book value, which makes them less reliable metrics on which to base a company’s worth. A different approach is required—not the flaky practice of the dotcom era but a serious method, grounded in logic and financial theory. However, the vaunted heritage of old-school value investing has made it hard for a fresher approach to gain traction.
    ...
    In Graham’s day the backbone of the economy was tangible capital. But things have changed. What makes companies distinctive, and therefore valuable, is not primarily their ownership of physical assets. The spread of manufacturing technology beyond the rich world has taken care of that. Any new design for a gadget, or garment, can be assembled to order by contract manufacturers from components made by any number of third-party factories. The value in a smartphone or a pair of fancy athletic shoes is mostly in the design, not the production.
    In service-led economies the value of a business is increasingly in intangibles—assets you cannot touch, see or count easily. It might be software; think of Google’s search algorithm or Microsoft’s Windows operating system. It might be a consumer brand like Coca-Cola. It might be a drug patent or a publishing copyright. A lot of intangible wealth is even more nebulous than that. Complex supply chains or a set of distribution channels, neither of which is easily replicable, are intangible assets. So are the skills of a company’s workforce. In some cases the most valuable asset of all is a company’s culture: a set of routines, priorities and commitments that have been internalised by the workforce. It can’t always be written down. You cannot easily enter a number for it into a spreadsheet. But it can be of huge value all the same.
    A beancounter’s nightmare
    There are three important aspects to consider with respect to intangibles, says Mr Mauboussin: their measurement, their characteristics, and their implications for the way companies are valued. Start with measurement. Accounting for intangibles is notoriously tricky. The national accounts in America and elsewhere have made a certain amount of progress in grappling with the challenge. Some kinds of expenditure that used to be treated as a cost of production, such as r&d and software development, are now treated as capital spending in gdp figures. The effect on measured investment rates is quite marked (see chart 2). But intangibles’ treatment in company accounts is a bit of a mess. By their nature, they have unclear boundaries. They make accountants queasy. The more leeway a company has to turn day-to-day costs into capital assets, the more scope there is to fiddle with reported earnings. And not every dollar of r&d or advertising spending can be ascribed to a patent or a brand. This is why, with a few exceptions, such spending is treated in company accounts as a running cost, like rent or electricity.
    The treatment of intangibles in mergers makes a mockery of this. If, say, one firm pays $2bn for another that has $1bn of tangible assets, the residual $1bn is counted as an intangible asset—either as brand value, if that can be appraised, or as “goodwill”. That distorts comparisons. A firm that has acquired brands by merger will have those reflected in its book value. A firm that has developed its own brands will not.
    The second important aspect of intangibles is their unique characteristics. A business whose assets are mostly intangible will behave differently from one whose assets are mostly tangible. Intangible assets are “non-rival” goods: they can be used by lots of people simultaneously. Think of the recipe for a generic drug or the design of a semiconductor. That makes them unlike physical assets, whose use by one person or for one kind of manufacture precludes their use by or for another.
    In their book “Capitalism Without Capital” Jonathan Haskel and Stian Westlake provided a useful taxonomy, which they call the four Ss: scalability, sunkenness, spillovers and synergies. Of these, scalability is the most salient. Intangibles can be used again and again without decay or constraint. Scalability becomes turbo-charged with network effects. The more people use a firm’s services, the more useful they are to other customers. They enjoy increasing returns to scale; the bigger they get, the cheaper it is to serve another customer. The big business successes of the past decade—Google, Amazon and Facebook in America; and Alibaba and Tencent in China—have grown to a size that was not widely predicted. But there are plenty of older asset-light businesses that were built on such network effects—think of Visa and Mastercard. The result is that industries become dominated by one or a few big players. The same goes for capital spending. A small number of leading firms now account for a large share of overall investment (see chart 3).
    ....
    The third aspect of intangibles to consider is their implications for investors. A big one is that earnings and accounting book value have become less useful in gauging the value of a company. Profits are revenues minus costs. If a chunk of those costs are not running expenses but are instead spending on intangible assets that will generate future cashflows, then earnings are understated. And so, of course, is book value. The more a firm spends on advertising, r&d, workforce training, software development and so on, the more distorted the picture is.
    The above is a much better explanation why Apple IS NOT another "blend—a blue chip stock ".
    image image
  • Asset Performance 1985-2020
    HFSAX...Hundredfold Selective Alternative Fund...which has a $1 million minimum initial investment at Schwab, is apparently 100% invested in real estate, according to Schwab website. I like to screen for low risk/high return funds and this one regularly pops up.
  • Bond mutual funds analysis act 2 !!
    "PCI(CEF): 8.5%. YTD still at -10.1%"
    To be fair, though, this is, I think, just price. It additionally picked up probably 8.5-9% in dividends.
    Only price matters and the one you can trade with. NAV is a good way to assess other stuff. My numbers are from M* and I think the price total returns include all distributions. Price = -10.1 NAV= (-5.16)
    You can also look at SharpChart(link). It's off many times by a bit. There is a huge difference between NAV and Price and why ShrapPrice is another good source to verify M*
    Anyway, the purpose of this thread is bonds OEFs, the rest is just an additional info. If you want to invest and discuss CEFs please open another thread. I use riskier stuff(stocks,ETF,CEF,gold, whatever moves) for short term trading of hours to days but this is another subject.
    It's a long discussion in the past several years. When fix income leveraged CEFs doing great everybody talks about the price, when they crash the ones who lost money talk about NAV and how beautiful are the distributions. I only look at total returns it's the thing I see in my account. Again, please open another thread if you want to discuss high distribution investment.
  • Bond mutual funds analysis act 2 !!
    ? M* $10k-growth chart shows PCI mtd is ~5.9%, ytd ~-5.2%.
  • VANGUARD
    She is 34, so will be putting the 403b proceeds into something all-equity, ETFs or perhaps mfunds, I am thinking. Fidelity has plenty of options, nothing too gogo of course in the current-employer 401k, whereas in her own traditional rollover she may be able to invest in about anything she wishes. In this I may be advising her, or may not.
    It now does occur to me that she probably also could talk to Fido about putting the 403b proceeds into her existing Fido Roth, paying the 10% or 20%, since she depleted much of her Roth to buy a house. But that may be too complex a set of calcs and involve overthinking it, as she can always move trad IRA moneys to a Roth later on.
    Other factors are that she has a smart (but investing-inexperienced) young husband and also a baby on the way.
    The former-employer 403B proceeds are not that large, I believe, although she like most investors has greatly benefited from the crazy bull in her YA lifetime.
  • VANGUARD
    There are lots of what in most situations are minor differences between 401(k)s and IRAs. This includes at least a couple I don't think I saw in any of the links: Roth 401(k)s have RMDs, and so long as one is working, RMDs don't apply to a 401(k) with one's current employer.
    https://www.irs.gov/retirement-plans/plan-participant-employee/retirement-topics-required-minimum-distributions-rmds
    IMHO the key consideration is investment options; for most people the rest is noise. (If any of the many enumerated differences matter to you, I suggest going to authoritative sources for precise details as there are many nits to pick with popular press pieces.)
    If the Fidelity 401(k) plan in question has investment options that would be used and that are cheaper than comparable options in an IRA, then (minor differences aside) go with the 401(k), at least with part of the money. Otherwise go with the IRA. For example, if the 401(k) has a stable value fund that would be used, or offers cheaper pooled investments in lieu of mutual funds, the 401(k) might be preferable. (A downside of pooled investments is less disclosure about the investments and performance.)
    Note that no 401(k) plan is required to accept transfers. I suspect that nearly all do accept transfers from other qualified plans. Plans are less likely to accept transfers from IRAs, but some do. It's worth checking. That would facilitate transferring first to the IRA and later to the 401(k) if desired.
    https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-tege/rollover_chart.pdf
  • Talking Money & Investing

    From the conversation:
    The world of investing normally sees experts telling us the “right” way to manage our money. How often do these experts pull back the curtain and tell us how they invest their own money? Never. How I Invest My Money changes that. In this unprecedented collection, 25 financial experts share how they navigate markets with their own capital. In this honest rendering of how they invest, save, spend, give, and borrow, this group of portfolio managers, financial advisors, venture capitalists and other experts detail the “how” and the “why” of their investments.
    How I Invest My Money