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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Warren had a tough year — how might explain it?
    I wish investors were given an option to have their dividends reinvested on a tax-deferred basis into new shares instead of taking taxable dividends payments. Oh, I forgot, that would be a "gift for the millionaires and billionaires." It would also take away the one benefit of investing in Berkshire Hathaway instead of the S&P500 or TSM Index.
  • Why So Many Mutual Funds Can’t Beat the Indexes
    Why accept 6% TR on a managed fund at a high ER when twice that TR is available for .05% or less using index funds? I do pay 1.3% for superior managed performance for part of my portfolio.
  • Play Your Game...KKR's Market Prespective
    I like good news:
    The good news is that, as we describe below in detail, we still see a lot of value in the “great unloved,” or the middle part of the market that actually looks attractively priced against today’s low interest rate backdrop, particularly if significant operational improvement can be implemented.
    International Markets:
    Non-U.S. markets are now cheap enough that, even with their flawed compositions (which is why we prefer Private Equity to Public Equity outside the U.S.; see below for details), they warrant investor attention for at least a cyclical “catch-up trade.” Also, central bank liquidity trends are now generally more in favor of international markets.
    The Asian Millennial:
    this year we want to allocate additional dollars to vehicles that are capturing the explosion in buying power that is being unleashed in Asia. By way of background, there are now a total of 826 million millennials in Asia, compared to 67 million in the United States. Because of this segment’s heft, total consumption in Asia actually passed that of Europe in 2011, and it is poised to exceed the U.S. by 2022. How should one invest behind this theme? See Section IV for more details, but personal financial services, healthcare services, wellness/beauty, healthier foods, and food safety should all be major long-term beneficiaries of the environment we are envisioning.
    For your investing and reading pleasure:
    https://kkr.com/global-perspectives/publications/play-your-game
    Where will growth be over the next 5-10 years?
    https://screencast.com/t/CKZuBjabnHWa
  • Barron’s Top Fund Families of 2019
    https://www.barrons.com/articles/top-fund-families-for-2020-barrons-annual-ranking-51581711228
    Barron’s Top Fund Families of 2019
    Good years are great. Investors have reveled in more than a decade’s worth of markets marching higher in lockstep. Last year, the S&P 500 index returned 31%, international markets climbed more than 20%, corporate bonds soared 14%, and even Treasuries gained nearly 8%. That was certainly good news for index investors, who went along for the ride. But it’s a high bar for active managers, most of whom still struggle to beat their benchmarks.
  • VLAAX
    Whoever is responsible for bringing this to my attention, I thank you. Really good long-term record, and it's just on fire out of the gate in 2020. VLAAX Value Line Asset Allocation, in the 50-70% stocks category at Morningstar. One drawback: high Expense Ratio. But I've seen worse. Our plan is to put wife's old 403b in this fund, and not worry about it, forever. We just mailed the paperwork.
  • Bond Funds Are Hotter Than Tesla
    Incognito google search
    https://www.google.com/search?ei=oodHXt-II4_AsAXjn5_oBg&q=bond+funds+are+hotter+than+tesla&oq=bond+funds+are+hotter+than+tesla&gs_l=mobile-gws-wiz-serp.12...0.0..2165...0.0..0.0.0.......0.WHk4
    Bond Funds Are Hotter Than Tesla
    bonds funds are hotter thsn tesla from www.wsj.com
    8 days ago · Tesla Inc.'s stock isn't the only hot asset. Nearly four decades into a bull market for bonds, investors still have a ravenous appetite for them, even though interest rates are near historic lows around the world. Much of the influx into bonds has come from individual investors
  • Where To Invest $10,000 Right Now
    Here's something a little different!
    Capital One is offering a cash bonus of $200 on their new 360 Performance Savings Account. Deposit $10,000 within 10 days of account opening and you will receive a $200 cash bonus into your account after 90 days.
    The current APY for this account is 1.8%. With a $200 cash bonus on $10,000 that boosts the effective 12 month return to 3.8%. Not bad for an FDIC insured investment. I've already taken advantage of this offer. Here's the link:
    https://www.capitalone.com/save1000/
    Just received my $200 cash bonus after keeping $10,000 on deposit for 90 days. Well done Capital One! The APY for the period dropped from 1.8% to 1.7% but still a very nice 9.8% risk-free annualized return (bonus plus interest) for the 90 days.
    Chase Bank is offering a $150 bonus on $10,000 with similar terms. You will lose the bonus if you close your account within 6 months, however.
    https://accounts.chase.com/consumer/banking/online/seocombo
  • Rebalancing Your Portfolio
    Ya, this is a blatant come-on. Cripes. i am simply staying the course. Valuations and prices are just too rich these days. I'm near my self-proclaimed sweet-spot in terms of allocation. $100 per month is going into PTIAX automatically. Maybe I'll get to 60% in bonds in my NEXT lifetime? In the meantime, I am enjoying the rising market. 56 bonds, 36 stocks, 7 cash. And I like living HERE, as opposed to where I WAS. :)
  • Warren had a tough year — how might explain it?
    BEKA is trailing the SP500(VFIAX) for 1-3-5-10 years. See (chart)
    SP500 has higher performance but also better SD, Sharpe and Sortino. See PortVis (link).
  • How's your 401(k) doing-401(k)s hit records as workers sock away more, stocks jump
    Hi @hank
    You noted: "- I contended a while back (some other thread) that worker contributions tend to increase when markets are richly valued. Fidelity’s observations might support that."
    Based upon my observations regarding 401k/403b plan participants over many years; the participants have a chosen amount of money placed each pay period into their plan, regardless of what the markets are doing.
    One may suspect there is a very small percentage (less than 5%) of these participants who actually pay attention to the markets. Those who do pay attention may alter some of their allocations periodically; but not likely the contribution amount, unless there is a change in their overall financial circumstance.
    My inflation adjusted 2 cents worth
    Catch
  • How's your 401(k) doing-401(k)s hit records as workers sock away more, stocks jump
    “The average 401(k) balance rose 17% last year to $112,300 from the end of 2018, according to a review of 17.3 million accounts by Fidelity Investments. The average individual retirement account, or IRA, balance rose the same percentage to $115,400”.
    - Socking away more ? The balance increases reported don’t reflect that, since the S&P rose 31+% in 2019 (according to the article).
    - Are these numbers for only Fidelity’s clients? Or are they referencing data for the total of all U.S. retirement savers? If only Fidelity, numbers may not be representative.
    - Do the reported balances represent all retirement plans - or just those where the holder hasn’t yet retired? (Let’s hope it’s the former.)
    - I contended a while back (some other thread) that worker contributions tend to increase when markets are richly valued. Fidelity’s observations might support that.
    By whatever means it takes to increase a 401k value. Doesn't matter what the market valuations are. It is simply picking the correct investment for one's age and retirement horizon.
  • *
    DHEAX has been discussed well back into 2019 at M*. Not sure if you are referring to MFO only.
    ================================
    Well, that's the thing about the internet...
    According to this M* search, the first post about DHEAX was on 10/30/2019:
    https://community.morningstar.com/t5/forums/searchpage/tab/message?q=dheix&noSynonym=false&collapse_discussion=true
    According to this M* search, the first post about DHEIX was by yogi in a Barron's Summary on 04/29/2019:
    https://community.morningstar.com/t5/forums/searchpage/tab/message?q=dheix&noSynonym=false&page=2&collapse_discussion=true
    The majority of posts about them, here and there, have been in the last TWO months, yet posters like to celebrate them (and hundreds of other funds) as though they knew about them/owned them during the period they refer to them as the better/best.
    So what's your point again?
    DHEAX has been discussed well back into 2019 at M*. Not sure if you are referring to MFO only.
    ================================
    Well, that's the thing about the internet...
    According to this M* search, the first post about DHEAX was on 10/30/2019:
    https://community.morningstar.com/t5/forums/searchpage/tab/message?q=dheix&noSynonym=false&collapse_discussion=true
    According to this M* search, the first post about DHEIX was by yogi in a Barron's Summary on 04/29/2019:
    https://community.morningstar.com/t5/forums/searchpage/tab/message?q=dheix&noSynonym=false&page=2&collapse_discussion=true
    The majority of posts about them, here and there, have been in the last TWO months, yet posters like to celebrate them (and hundreds of other funds) as though they knew about them/owned them during the period they refer to them as the better/best.
    So what's your point again?
    Why so testy? I was only commenting. I have been considering DHEAX for much longer than a couple of months. One will never know how long it was discussed on M* because the forum changed less than a year ago. Cheers.
  • Longtime bull (Ed Yardini) says he’s sitting on cash ahead of a possible market correction
    stillers: And I never understood your "All bonds all the time/bond OEF momentum" investment strategy when markets have gone up FOR 10 YEARS.
    It should be noted that you posted on M* that you sold all of your stocks near/at EOY 2019, you have not reported any stock buys since then, staying 100% in bond OEFs. So despite you reporting that data, you have not participated in any of the 2020 YTD stock market gains.

    The above was your usual inaccurate agenda. I owned stocks constantly several years in the last 10 years. In the last 2 years and especially since retirement, I'm invested mostly in bond OEFs and I trade stocks/ETF/CEF several times annually. That fits perfectly with my goals which I exceeded easily
    I don't post most of my trades and holdings anymore.
    In the past, you said several times that
    1) I will never retire but I did
    2) I will never have enough but I already have more than 30 times our annual expense without drawing social security.
    and now you said, "So despite you reporting that data, you have not participated in any of the 2020 YTD stock market gains." I didn't claim that I used "sell trailing stop" it was just a generic post. There is no way for you to know if I owned stocks and how long.
    I can't find where you posted your holdings, their % and trades in the last 1-2 years. Your quote said "markets have gone up FOR 10 YEARS" while you were holding a huge % in CD and bond OEFs for years

    @Gary1952 Of course there is a correction coming......................someday. There always is.
    No correction is needed unless you can find something wrong I said.
    My comment about sell trailing stop was a generic one that I used to do years ago. I do trade riskier funds short-term, usually days to 2 weeks.
    I suggest that you guys stay on topic and not rehash Morningstar posts, after all, this is MFO.
    FD, please take a breath, relax and re-read my post. I did not comment on your investing. The correction I posted about was a MARKET correction, about the OP. I had the misfortune to post after a derogative post. My post had no quote attached. No apology needed.
  • Janus' The Organics and The Obesity ETFs to liquidate
    Not healthy....
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1500604/000119312520036572/d882023d497.htm
    497 1 d882023d497.htm JANUS DETROIT STREET TRUST
    Janus Detroit Street Trust
    The Organics ETF
    The Obesity ETF
    Supplement dated February 14, 2020
    to Currently Effective Prospectus and
    Statement of Additional Information (“SAI”)
    The Board of Trustees of Janus Detroit Street Trust (the “Trust”) approved a plan to liquidate and terminate The Organics ETF (”ORG”) and The Obesity ETF (“SLIM” and, together with ORG, the “Funds”), effective on or about March 17, 2020 (the “Liquidation Date”). After the close of business on or about March 12, 2020, the Funds will no longer accept creation orders. Trading in the Funds will be halted prior to market open on or about March 13, 2020. Proceeds of the liquidation are currently scheduled to be sent to shareholders on or about March 18, 2020. Termination of the Funds is expected to occur as soon as practicable following the liquidation.
    Prior to and through the close of trading on The NASDAQ Stock Market LLC (“NASDAQ”) on March 12, 2020, each Fund will undertake the process of closing down and liquidating its portfolio. This process may result in the Funds holding cash and securities that may not be consistent with their respective investment objectives and strategies. During this period, the Funds are likely to incur higher tracking error than is typical for the Funds. Furthermore, during the time between market open on March 13, 2020 and the Liquidation Date, because shares will not be traded on NASDAQ, there may not be a trading market for the Funds’ shares.
    Shareholders may sell shares of the Funds on NASDAQ until the market close on March 12, 2020 and may incur typical transaction fees from their broker-dealer. Shares held as of the close of business on the Liquidation Date will be automatically redeemed for cash at the current net asset value. Proceeds of the redemption will be paid through the broker-dealer with whom you hold shares of the Funds. Shareholders will generally recognize a capital gain or loss on the redemptions. The Funds may or may not, depending upon each Fund’s respective circumstances, pay one or more dividends or other distributions prior to or along with the redemption payments. Please consult your personal tax advisor about the potential tax consequences.
    Please retain this Supplement with your records.
  • Longtime bull (Ed Yardini) says he’s sitting on cash ahead of a possible market correction
    stillers: And I never understood your "All bonds all the time/bond OEF momentum" investment strategy when markets have gone up FOR 10 YEARS.
    It should be noted that you posted on M* that you sold all of your stocks near/at EOY 2019, you have not reported any stock buys since then, staying 100% in bond OEFs. So despite you reporting that data, you have not participated in any of the 2020 YTD stock market gains.
    The above was your usual inaccurate agenda. I owned stocks constantly several years in the last 10 years. In the last 2 years and especially since retirement, I'm invested mostly in bond OEFs and I trade stocks/ETF/CEF several times annually. That fits perfectly with my goals which I exceeded easily
    I don't post most of my trades and holdings anymore.
    In the past, you said several times that
    1) I will never retire but I did
    2) I will never have enough but I already have more than 30 times our annual expense without drawing social security.
    and now you said, "So despite you reporting that data, you have not participated in any of the 2020 YTD stock market gains." I didn't claim that I used "sell trailing stop" it was just a generic post. There is no way for you to know if I owned stocks and how long.
    I can't find where you posted your holdings, their % and trades in the last 1-2 years. Your quote said "markets have gone up FOR 10 YEARS" while you were holding a huge % in CD and bond OEFs for years

    @Gary1952 Of course there is a correction coming......................someday. There always is.
    No correction is needed unless you can find something wrong I said.
    My comment about sell trailing stop was a generic one that I used to do years ago. I do trade riskier funds short-term, usually days to 2 weeks.
    I suggest that you guys stay on topic and not rehash Morningstar posts, after all, this is MFO.
  • Longtime bull (Ed Yardini) says he’s sitting on cash ahead of a possible market correction
    A couple of days ago, John Rekenthaler had an article on Morningstar "Why not 100% equities?" This would be in comparison to the traditionally recommended 60/40 portfolio.
    He referenced a 25-year old article on the topic and talked about options and alternatives (including using leverage to really juice returns). The main criticism was: who could withstand the big downturns??!!
    Of course, if we think the market will generally go up over time, it makes sense to be "all in".
    My Dad lived to 98+ and his philosophy was to buy dividend-paying stocks and pretty much hold them forever. He was willing to ride out the downturns. Of course, he grew up in the Depression and was pretty frugal with his money -- the cost of living for Mom and Dad was pretty low (fitting -- his pension had no cost of living increases).
    A lot of him rubbed of on me, but I'm more adventurous. No bonds, but I like to hold some cash to take advantage of opportunities. I bought some AKRIX a few months ago, having learned about it on this board. My biggest holding is FSELX; #2 is SO (barbells?). Bought a little more SBUX recently.
    When markets keep going up -- every strategy looks like genius!
    David