Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • ...
    Re “links to human writers”
    It appears @JohnN fell for the same trap I did last week. While I knew sites like Yahoo republished news stories from other sources (for the most part faithfully and with proper citation), I hadn’t realized there are now offshore sites that actually rewrite those stories with / without proper attribution. I don’t know if it’s machine written. Appears to be a very bad human rewording / translation, perhaps dictated to machine. Why ... ? (1) Might be an effort to alter original wording enough to evade copyright law. (2) Might be an attempt to simplify or shorten the original article to attract more readers. (3) The re-publisher could be working from a previously translated copy of the original.
    In my case last week, I attempted to link a perfectly well written story I’d read in the FT so readers here could access it. The FT is very hard to link, so I went with what appeared to be the same story republished by “Newslagoon”. Bad mistake on my part. Here, John is citing something calling itself “Invest Records.” Their story appears to be a poor regurgitation of a story that appeared on the BBC’s website: https://www.bbc.com/news/business-51347497
    From BBC: “China urged citizens to wear face masks in public places ...”
    From Invest Records: “China advised voters to placed on face masks in public areas ...”
    (Likely the English terms “citizens” and “voters” bear resemblance to one another in another language and are easy to confuse by those with poor English skills.)
    It appears “Invest Records” is mixing into its recap more than one source, whereas “Newlagoon” simply reworked one source.
    THIS IS WRONG: These after-market news sites are profiting by stealing stories from reputable sources and putting them out on the web to attract readers to their advertising (and probably planting lots of tracking cookies on our devices as well). All of us, John and I included, need to track down the original source of any article we come upon and attempt to link to that original source. Let’s not feed these vultures by posting their regurgitated crap here. *I’d like to learn more about these re-write shops and how they manage to so mangle the stories they’ve plagiarized. If anyone knows more or has pertinent links please share.
    PS - In John’s defense, it’s my understanding English is his second-language. So, I’d cut him a little slack here. But, he should try in the future to track down the original source of news / financial articles before posting.
  • ...
    Is that all you had problems with? I'm still trying to decrypt this sentence in the piece:
    China’s central bank talked about the cross would save particular that there turned ample liquidity throughout the banking scheme and assist present a bag forex market.
    The 150 billion yuan figure in the quoted article is a net figure, as a Reuters article explains:
    China’s central bank said it will inject 1.2 trillion yuan ($174 billion) worth of liquidity into the markets via reverse repo operations. ... 1.05 trillion yuan worth of reverse repos are set to mature on Monday, meaning that 150 billion yuan in net cash will be injected.
    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-cenbank/china-to-inject-174-billion-of-liquidity-on-february-3-as-markets-reopen-idUSKBN1ZW074
  • *
    I thought I would mention one other fund that was barely above my risk criteria--SNTIX. This fund had a standard deviation of 2.07, credit quality of BBB, duration of 5.10, and at total return of 1yr/3yr of 8.17/5.53. It is another investment grade intermediate bond oef. Of the funds I mentioned before, NVHAX is a very tempting fund. My issue is simply that regardless of what the Feds do with interest rates, all of the HY Muni funds recorded record 1 year returns in 2019, and it seems that this category is most likely going to revert to its average in a year following record highs. Momentum investors don't care because they will just ride this high performing period until it cools off and then sell, but if you intend to hold a fund for another year, after a record high year, you have to wonder if valuations are being stretched and vulnerability to factors other than interest rates can negatively impact performance.
  • Charles Bolin, MFO commentator. Funds that do well; with falling $/rising inflation write
    For me as an investor, when the S&P 500 went down 1.8% Friday, my accounts went down about 0.2%. Each month, I look at what is working and what is not, and make small changes.
    That is the way to assess one's portfolio allocation. Can't image retiring near latter half 2008 as market fell of the cliff, especially when it is stock-heavy.
  • Charles Bolin, MFO commentator. Funds that do well; with falling $/rising inflation write
    Thanks to all for the comments, whether you agree or disagree. Especially to you, Catch, thank you. I write because of what I learn from the research and from the readers. I learned about Portfolio Visualizer and Mutual Fund Observer from readers.
    Part if the February MFO Newsletter is about secular markets. It makes the case why I believe that we are in a cyclical bull market within a secular bear market.
    For me as an investor, when the S&P 500 went down 1.8% Friday, my accounts went down about 0.2%. Each month, I look at what is working and what is not, and make small changes.
    Best wishes
  • Even in hot stock market TSP investors love super-cool G fund
    Isn't something a miss in this paragraph ?
    {Among the popular self-adjusting Lifecycle funds the L-income’s — with the smallest percentage of stocks and largest investment in treasury securities and bonds — return was 7.60% last year. The L-2030 fund return was 17.60% and the L-2050 returned 23.33% in 2018.
    I believe 2018 should read 2019.
    Derf
  • Godfather’ of technical analysis says stock-market downturn is going to get worse: ‘I am looking at
    Hi @Mark
    “Yah” ! That Jan. 4, 2018 comment:
    --- Jan. 18 - Feb. 6 found a -11.83% for SP-500
    --- The high point on Jan. 18 wasn't recovered until July 25
    --- Then, a -10% during the month of October.
    --- THEN, from Dec. 13 - Dec. 24, a -13%
    Sometimes, enough fun to cause one to want to wear "Depends" all of the time; regardless of age or need.
    Aside from the above:
    Heck, I continue to debate when to quite playing with all of the money as our portfolios remain a close mirror of FBALX. Not a bad benchmark; but........
    'Course, then one tries to convince that little character on top of one's shoulder; OH, just a little bit, okay? So, let's try 90% into FBALX and 10% to break a full court press. :)
    Tough being an investment junkie, eh ???
    Take care,
    Catch
  • *
    "Gary1952">I opted for NVHAX over BTMIX when I bought on 1-2-2020. The allocation to NVHAX was in my taxable account with money for future (most likely 2 years down the road) monthly expenses. I like the stronger performance over BTMIX. The short duration downturn recovered quickly in 2017 but I will watch NVHAX closely and switch to BTMIX or possibly AAHMX if I see the need to change. I am not a trader so holding on thru a downturn is similar to holding equities in a correction. Thanks for the update.
    Gary, best wishes on your decision. Comparing a HY Short Duration Muni fund with a BB credit rating, to an Investment Grade Short Term Muni fund with a A credit rating, is all about risk and return and having your eyes wide open. NVHAX has been a good fund but it is much more risky than BTMIX--in downmarkets, and outside of seasonally strong periods,Muni bond oef risks need to be appreciated.
  • *
    This post is about some of the more conservative Muni bond oefs. Interest rate and credit risk can impact the various categories, but if you are interested in Munis, here are a few funds for you to consider, with standard deviation below 2 and durations below 5.
    1. BTMIX: Investment grade short term muni bond oef with SD 1.13, Credit Quality A, Duration 2.37, 1yr/3yr total return of 4.24/2.91
    2. AAHMX: Short Duration HY Muni bond oef with SD 1.28, Credit Quality BB, Duration 2.80, 1yr/3yr total return of 5.40/3.63
    3. PDSZX/PDSAX: Investment Grade Muni bond oef with SD 1.61, Credit Quality BBB, Duration 3.72, 1yr/3yr total return of 6.61/4.35
    4. NVHAX: Short Duration HY Muni bond oef with SD 1.66, Credit Quality BB, Duration 3.78, 1yr/3yr total return of 8.59/6.66
    5. GSMIX: Investment Grade Muni bond oef with SD 1.95, Credit Quality BBB, Duration 4.43, 1yr/3yr total return of 8.39/5.50
    Comments: Muni oef bonds tend to be impacted by seasonal factors and we are just completing one of the strongest performing seasonal periods of January when Munis performed very well. But you may also want to consider peak to trough performance in a very tough 2016 market--BTMIX was strong and basically had no significant drop, but NVHAX had a peak to trough loss of 5.53% in a 3 month period, GSMIX had a 4.82% peak to trough drop in 3 month period, SDHAX had a peak to trough drop of 4.54% in a 3 month period, PDSZX had a peak to trough drop of 4.3% in a 3 month period, and AAHMX had a peak to trough drop of 2.7% in a 3 month period. Munis are not risk free and you can lose money in them, so consider how much risk you are willing to take after a very strong 2019.
  • Godfather’ of technical analysis says stock-market downturn is going to get worse: ‘I am looking at
    https://www.yahoo.com/finance/m/079ad811-d3e8-3f82-8046-7036a2f542f5/‘godfather’-of-technical.html
    Godfather’ of technical analysis says stock-market downturn is going to get worse: ‘I am looking at a 10% drop maybe a little bit more
    10%drop corrections sx head-!?!!
  • Benjamin Graham's Timeless Advice
    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/benjamin-grahams-timeless-advice-195157715.html
    Benjamin Graham's Timeless Advice
    Benjamin Graham had all the traits of a great investor--brains, curiosity and discipline. An immigrant to New York, his family was plunged into poverty when his father died. But Ben was a smart kid. He learned to read six languages in high school and went on to attend Columbia University, where he became a Greek scholar and, on graduation, received offers to teach from three disparate departments: mathematics, philosophy and English. Instead, he chose Wall Street, eventually teaching at Columbia's business school, where Warren Buffett was among his students.
  • Even in hot stock market TSP investors love super-cool G fund
    https://federalnewsnetwork.com/mike-causey-federal-report/2020/01/even-in-hot-stock-market-tsp-investors-love-super-cool-g-fund/
    Even in hot stock market TSP investors love super-cool G fund
    Despite 20-30-plus-percent returns for the TSP’s C, S and I stock index funds last year, a slight majority of federal workers investing for retirement have most of their optional retirement nest egg money in the super-safe, Treasury securities G fund.
    The C fund, which tracks the S&P 500 index, returned 31.45% in 2019. The small cap S fund return was 27.97% and the international stock index I fund was up 27.97%. The F fund (bonds) return was 8.68% while the popular G fund returned 2.24% in calendar 2019.
    As of Dec. 31, 2019, the TSP total value was $632.6 billion.
  • Emerging markets ETFs sink into red for the year
    The Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF (NYSEARCA:VWO) might be even a hair more weighted to China. It's off 2.25% today and also about 5% for the year.
    Think this is far from over.
  • Know These 3 Facts to Avoid Paying Half Your Retirement Income to the IRS - January 30, 2020
    Zacks is just recycling its pablum. It's not all nonsense, but it has a fair share of misstatements, errors, and opinion masquerading as facts.
    Its last NASDAQ contribution, dated Jan 14, was also linked to in a post
    https://mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/54970/retirees-should-know-these-3-facts-about-required-minimum-distributions-january-14-2020
    Compare and contrast with the excerpt above:
    Retirees Should Know These 3 Facts About Required Minimum Distributions - January 14, 2020
    Failing to withdraw a required minimum distribution (RMD) from your own or an inherited IRA by the deadline results in a big tax code penalty: 50%. That's right. If you were supposed to take out a minimum of $4,000 and (oops!) did not do so, you have the privilege of writing the IRS a check for $2,000. It's important to remember that the rules related to RMDs changed on January 1, 2020.
  • More Than Half of Retirement Savers Don't Know This
    While I firmly believe that at least 50% have little clue as to what they are invested in or how their investments operate I also believe that 50% quite possible are unable to find funds available to invest at all. I know I sailed on that second boat for a long time even though I knew it wasn't where I should be. Supporting a family gets in the way sometimes.
  • Know These 3 Facts to Avoid Paying Half Your Retirement Income to the IRS - January 30, 2020
    https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/know-these-3-facts-to-avoid-paying-half-your-retirement-income-to-the-irs-january-30-2020
    Know These 3 Facts to Avoid Paying Half Your Retirement Income to the IRS - January 30, 2020
    If you do not make a required minimum distribution (RMD) from your own or an inherited IRA by the specified deadline, the IRS could hit you with a big penalty - 50%! For example, if you were required to withdraw a minimum of $4,000 and you did not, you would be obliged to pay $2,000. Plus, beginning January 1, 2020, the rules concerning RMDs were updated.
  • More Than Half of Retirement Savers Don't Know This
    (From John’s link) “In a recent survey, Schroders Investment Management questioned 1,004 men and women aged 45 to over 70 about retirement planning. ... Some 55% of respondents admitted they didn't know how their assets were allocated.”
    This might explain that: Vanguard: More than half of DC participants investing solely in target-date funds Story
    Makes sense to me that if someone who is not financially inclined defaults to their 401-K (or other employee plan’s) target date fund they would not be able to explain the “ins & outs“ of how that fund invests. Seems to me those funds are designed for precisely that kind of individual.
    It would be nice if they all became fund junkies like most of us here - but that is not the reality. I don’t think any amount of citizenry education is likely to alter that. However, as one moves from contribution years to distribution years it’s likely their interest in financial matters grows. Experience on this forum testifies to that subtle transition,
  • More Than Half of Retirement Savers Don't Know This
    More Than Half of Retirement Savers Don't Know This
    /You might be missing the very information you need to succeed in retirement.
    Catherine Brock
    Running a marathon without training is a bad idea. Same goes for betting your last $100 on lucky 17 at the roulette table, or trying to save for a comfortable retirement when you know little about investing. The odds of coming out ahead all around are pretty low./
    https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/01/29/more-than-half-of-retirement-savers-dont-know-this.aspx
    •••I do believe most or more than 95% of regular MFOers know about diversification distributions and reimbursements issues regarding investments firms /investments related issues
  • Emerging markets ETFs sink into red for the year
    https://seekingalpha.com/news/3536491-emerging-markets-etfs-sink-red-for-year
    Emerging markets ETFs sink into red for the year
    Seeking Alpha
    Emerging market indices are more or less proxies for China, so they've had a rough run the past few sessions thanks to coronavirus worry.
    Chinese names make up five of the top ten holdings in the iShares Emerging Markets ETF (NYSEARCA:EEM), and a Taiwanese name (Taiwan Semi) makes for a sixth. The EEM is off 2.4% today and now about 5% for the year.
    The Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF (NYSEARCA:VWO) might be even a hair more weighted to China. It's off 2.25% today and also about 5% for the year.