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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Might Tariffs Get “Overturned”?
    As the economy unravels, we will hear a lot more of "It had to be done". As if making us economically weaker accomplishes anything. Ot that they are fighting the "good fight". No proof will ever be forthcoming.
    President Trump says US court ruling against tariff authority 'would be 1929 all over again'. If tariffs are overturned, $100B would have to be returned, which means more T bill sales. I think this was a warning to Appeals Court and Supreme Court that a depression will occur and the courts will be to blame. My guess is that 60% chance appeals court rules against tariffs, but 95% chance Supreme Court rules court has no authority.
    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-says-us-court-ruling-against-tariff-authority-would-be-1929-all-over-again-173011058.html
  • Record issuance of 4-week T bills. (Barrons)
    A firm I read believes that if DJT fires Powell, and forces the fed rate down to 1.5, ALL deficit funding will be short term with disastrous consequences for LT debt. While there will be a surge in economic activity, inflation will soon blow up, stocks crater and only Gold and hard assets will out preform
    " The Bond Market will Riot"
    But do we have proof that long term rates will go up? TNX has mostly sat under 4% for 20 years. If employers don’t raise prices, but stop hiring, maybe little inflation and long rates stay same? Tariffs could be used to encourage bond buying?
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Hank,
    Thanks for detailed breakdown, never had enough time to research CEFs, seemed opaque. The affable billionaire Mario seems to have done ok last few years. But seems to trade like a convertible fund. But correlation with SPY is low, so a good metric:
    * 1-Year Correlation: 0.28
    * 3-Year Correlation: 0.41
    * 5-Year Correlation: 0.46
  • Moneymarket Rate Creep
    Yugo,
    Sallie Mae has directly on their website CD rate
    15 months
    4.40% APY
    https://www.salliemae.com/banking/certificates-of-deposit/
  • QDSNX Confusion
    A great example of lying with numbers.
    12b-1 distribution 0.25%. Other 0.19% = 0.44%
    Acquired fund fees 2.86% (Magical accounting used to ignore these fees.)
    TOTAL 3.30%
    Ditto!
    The FOFs I’ve used in the past (T Rowe Price / Cambrea) did not tack on a 12b-1 distribution fee or an additional management fee. That would be a turn-off. When I had money at Oppenheimer they did have a bunch of FOFs (multi-asset funds) that did add a management fee. They called it a “allocation fee” if I remember. Possibly those have migrated to Invesco? So, you were better off owning the components individually than as part of a FOF.
  • QDSNX Confusion
    Often when a fund sponsor (e.g. AQR) offers a fund of fund, it does not charge a second level of management fees. No drag there, and if it eats the FoF's "other" fees, there may be no difference between the FoF and owning the underlying funds separately.
    I say "may be" no difference because Vanguard's FoFs hold the more expensive Investor class shares of underlying funds. For example, VSCGX owns Vanguard Total Market Investor shares VTSMX (ER 0.14%) instead of Admiral Shares VTSAX ($3K min, ER 0.04%).
    Acquired fund expenses are prorated when calculating the total acquired fund fees. QDSNX's acquired fund fees are so high because the underlying funds short securities, a costly strategy.
    From the summary prospectus: "Acquired Fund Fees and Expenses include 1.79% related to fees and expenses associated with certain underlying funds' dividends on short sales and interest expense."
  • Moneymarket Rate Creep
    FWIW, the SUTXX US Treasury Mmkt at Schwab slowly declined from 4.12% on 5/30 to 4.01% on 7/14; and then increased from there to 4.13% currently.
    fwiw, FIGXX 7d is back to 4.2%
    Fidelity MMFs tended not to waver much in yield over the past few months. For FIGXX, all I can find is:
    July 25: 4.18%
    June 7: 4.19%
    May 2, 2025: 4.22%
    I can provide more precise info on SPAXX, a different Fidelity MMF (and retail vs. institutional), but one managed by the same managers with roughly the same breakdown of assets. For the dates OJ gave:
    May 30: 3.94%
    July 14: 3.95% (no decline)
    Aug 5: 3.97% (de minimis increase on date of OP)
    Aug 7: 3.96% current
    And for a Fidelity fund that's similar to SUTXX, there's FSIXX:
    May 30: 4.15%
    July 14: 4.16% (no decline)
    Aug 5: 4.16% (no change)
    Aug 7: 4.16% (no change)
    This may say more about Fidelity vs. Schwab than about trends in the short term market.
  • Gold Hit By Surprise US Tariffs, Unleashing New Turmoil
    There is a White House clarification (re gold tariffs) in the process of being issued. So don’t do anything rash!

    Oh no! I was just driving to a dozen Costcos to pick up my bars…

    Hope you have a big enough pickup to haul it all. :)
    Unfortunately my wallet can’t handle more than a few 1 ounce “bars”.
  • related to investing?

    in the dark here. we have numbers. new numbers. bigly numbers that have never been used by lesser presidents before.
    https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:4llrhdclvdlmmynkwsmg5tdc/post/3lvtlagok5t2x
    will pictures help a man unable to do simple math, ever?
    and yes, discarding the red+white+blue chart means he hates america.
  • QDSNX Confusion
    A great example of lying with numbers.
    12b-1 distribution 0.25%. Other 0.19% = 0.44%
    Acquired fund fees 2.86% (Magical accounting used to ignore these fees.)
    TOTAL 3.30%
  • Tariffs
    Hi @Anna and @DrVenture
    How about this electronic b-kiss version shown on Colbert last night?
  • QDSNX Confusion
    QDSNX a fund-of-funds. From Prospectus,
    Top-level management fee 0%
    12b-1 distribution 0.25%
    Other 0.19%
    Acquired fund fees 2.86%
    TOTAL 3.30%
  • Moneymarket Rate Creep
    FD1000,
    I said crypto is very risky, probably 5-10% max in portfolio. Just pointing out like you implied that politics should not factor into investing decision. Many people have missed out on biggest gains of last year because (maybe in part at least) they don’t like politics of people in the space (crypto, Palantir, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac).
    I have advocated more than 12 years ago that Treasury should take very small amount from bond sales and put into S&P 500 - very radical at the time but President just this year is talking about setting up a sovereign wealth fund.
  • Gold Hit By Surprise US Tariffs, Unleashing New Turmoil
    There is a White House clarification (re gold tariffs) in the process of being issued.
    So don’t do anything rash!
    Don't worry at all!
    The gold tariff is an incredibly thoughtful policy created by one of the smartest people on the planet.
    It just needs to be tweaked since markets were getting a bit "yippy."
    The administration will soon clarify all the "misinformation" reported by the mainstream media.
  • Gold Hit By Surprise US Tariffs, Unleashing New Turmoil
    There is a White House clarification (re gold tariffs) in the process of being issued. So don’t do anything rash!

    Oh no! I was just driving to a dozen Costcos to pick up my bars…
    Hope you have a big enough pickup to haul it all. :)
  • Gold Hit By Surprise US Tariffs, Unleashing New Turmoil
    There is a White House clarification (re gold tariffs) in the process of being issued. So don’t do anything rash!
    Oh no! I was just driving to a dozen Costcos to pick up my bars…
  • Gold Hit By Surprise US Tariffs, Unleashing New Turmoil
    There is a White House clarification (re gold tariffs) in the process of being issued. So don’t do anything rash!
  • Moneymarket Rate Creep
    Thank you very much @Old_Joe for your tolerance.
    I followed the early discussions of short-term rates with interest. Being a gambler at heart I’m inclined to roll the dice a little. “Anything but cash” for me. I like Blackrock’s short-term bond fund NEAR for monies you guys would probably commit to cash. Very high credit quality and prone to go up when the equity markets go down - thus providing better ballast to the portfolio. Should do at least as well as cash or TRBUX / TBUX over 3-5 year time frames.
    If the Fed lowers rates I would think that would cause money market yields to fall. Sure seems like they will under pressure from the Administration - be it appropriate from an economic perspective or not. Of course, some of the discussion here has pertained to longer dated CDs or Treasuries.
    I did not miss @catch22’s excellent point in another thread that the BLS is where inflation numbers come from for assigning TIP’s inflation premium. Good point. The games being played re BLS may indeed affect the desirability of TIPs. I’ve found TIPs a little “squirrelley” anyway. Held inside a fund they can produce unwanted / unexpected results.
    Unless the economy totally tanks and goes into a very deep recession, I expect higher inflation going forward. So, for me, that’s another reason to roll the dice a little and own a well diversified portfolio rather than one concentrated on the short end.
    Yes, thank you for an interesting thread.
  • Portfolio Software Reviewed
    Gemini won’t reveal source for data, but
    https://www.tiingo.com/products/end-of-day-stock-price-data
    $30/month
    Claims to have data from 1970s, then can have AI write Python code to generate output needed.
    They offer a pretty generous free subscription as well. Access to all of their data (all stocks, funds, 30+ years of historical data), but limited in quantity: 500 unique symbols per month, 50 queries per hour, 1000 queries per day.
    Quality of data looks very good. I ran a query on VFIAX between 2/19/20 and 3/23/20 inclusive (max drawdown dates) to compare with M* and the Gemini figure given above (-33.72%).
    M* chart gives -33.80%, exactly what one gets using Tingo's (10 digit precision) adjusted prices. Tingo also gives a more precise div figure for March 9 ($1.1794/share) than I've been able to find elsewhere. Using that div figure I was able to validate Tingo's adjusted price for March 9th.
    In contrast, Yahoo's adjusted price for that date seemed off a little. And using Yahoo's (two decimal place) adjusted price figures for the drawdown endpoints produced a drawdown of -33.83%, vs. Tingo's and M*'s -33.80%. (We already knew that Yahoo's rounding results in inaccuracies.)
    I also found that if one compounded the daily gains (after accounting for the div on March 9) the result is also -33.80% so long as one uses at least five decimal places of precision. Rounding each day's gain (or loss) to 4 decimal places resulted in a perceived loss of -33.82%.
    All in all, Tingo seems to be both very accurate (not giving wrong values) and very precise (lots of decimal places). Easy to use - output in JSON and csv format.
  • Anchor Risk Managed Global Strategies Fund will be liquidated
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1644419/000158064225004978/anchorglobalstrat497.htm
    497 1 anchorglobalstrat497.htm 497
    Anchor Risk Managed Global Strategies Fund
    Advisor Class Shares – ATAGX
    Institutional Class Shares – ATGSX
    (a series of Northern Lights Fund Trust IV)
    Supplement dated August 8, 2025
    to the Prospectuses and Statements of Additional Information dated December 30, 2024
    ______________________________________________________________________________
    The Board of Trustees of Northern Lights Fund Trust IV (the “Board”) has determined based on the recommendation of the investment adviser of the Anchor Risk Managed Global Strategies Fund (the “Fund”), that it is in the best interests of the Fund and its shareholders that the Fund cease operations. The Board has determined to close the Fund and redeem all outstanding shares on August 28, 2025.
    Effective at the close of business August 8, 2025, the Fund will not accept any purchases and will no longer pursue its stated investment objectives. The Fund may begin liquidating its portfolio and may invest in cash equivalents such as money market funds until all shares have been redeemed. Any capital gains will be distributed as soon as practicable to shareholders.
    Prior to August 28, 2025, you may redeem your shares, including reinvested distributions, in accordance with the “How to Redeem Shares” section in the Prospectus. Unless your investment in the Fund is through a tax-deferred retirement account, a redemption is subject to tax on any taxable gains. Please refer to the “Tax Status, Dividends and Distributions” section in the Prospectus for general information. You may wish to consult your tax advisor about your particular situation.
    ANY SHAREHOLDERS WHO HAVE NOT REDEEMED THEIR SHARES OF THE FUND PRIOR TO AUGUST 28, 2025 WILL HAVE THEIR SHARES AUTOMATICALLY REDEEMED AS OF THAT DATE, AND PROCEEDS WILL BE SENT TO THE ADDRESS OF RECORD. IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS OR NEED ASSISTANCE, PLEASE CONTACT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISOR DIRECTLY OR THE FUND AT 1-844-594-1226 (toll-free).
    This Supplement and the existing Prospectuses dated December 30, 2024, provide relevant information for all shareholders and should be retained for future reference. Both the Prospectuses and the Statements of Additional Information dated December 30, 2024, have been filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission, are incorporated by reference and can be obtained without charge by calling the Fund at 1-844-594-1226