The QQQ and international tech heavy stuff really took a beating over the past few months, that's for sure. I have another 10-15 years before I bail out myself. In 2019, I'm definitely dialing down my equity exposure.

And as long as I'm here I decided to take a peek at my portfolio returns YTD. As most of you already know I am a dividend growth investor who holds mostly individual stocks, preferred stocks and CEF's primarily PIMCO bond funds. I do however hold 6 mutual funds who's holdings and returns are kept separate from my taxable brokerage account and my Roth account. According to M* the YTD returns are: TB- +3.75%, Roth - +5.51% and Mutual funds - +5.14. It's likely that my taxable brokerage (TB) account might have shown better results if that were not the account that I siphon off cash to pay my bills with. Then again, if I hadn't used the cash to pay bills who knows what stupid investing idea I might have used it on. Oh well. Someday I hope to be like Ted and pull most of it out and just watch the market circus w/o paying the admission fee.

Added to 2 fund’s today in that category. (1) PREMX is a dollar-hedged EM bond fund. (2) DODLX is a mostly investment grade bond fund with around 50% in the U.S. - but it also holds some EM bonds which was an important consideration. Lightened up on my alternative strategy holdings.
Caution: I’m scared too and have absolutely no idea what I’m doing.

FYI: Healthcare is 2018’s top performing sector with a 15 percent return year-to-date, handily beating the broader market’s gain of 4 percent.
But what’s done even better? Medical devices.
Regards,
Ted
https://www.fa-mag.com/news/medical-device-etfs-have-stellar-long-term-track-records-42140.html?print
M* Snapshot IHI:
https://www.morningstar.com/etfs/arcx/ihi/quote.html
M* Snapshot XHE:
https://www.morningstar.com/etfs/ARCX/XHE/quote.html

FYI: Ben & Michael discuss:
.Boom and bust nature of commodities
.What is the role of commodities in a portfolio — manage risk or price appreciation?
.Why would commodities add a risk management component to a typical portfolio?
.Do commodities need inflation to do well or is it about supply and demand?
.Should commodities be used for buy & hold or a tactical position?
.Is technology a headwind for commodities?
.Why is it so hard to match the return on actual commodities?
.The difference between commodity prices and commodity futures.
.What is the S&P 500 index of the commodity world?
.Are commodities a neglected part of the portfolio?
.Why should gold have a positive expected return?
.Is Bitcoin the new gold?
.Is Bitcoin a commodity?
.What is the expected return assumption for gold?
.Why are there no oil bugs?
Regards,
Ted
https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2018/12/talk-your-book-investing-in-commodities/

I currently have an allocation of about 5% to emerging markets within my portfolio according to my last Instant Xray analysis. If I were to add to my emerging market weighting I think I would do it through purchase of American Funds Developing World Growth & Income (DWGAX) as it has a dividend of about 2.5% over adding to their New World Fund (NEWFX) which I also own.

FYI: After a busy week with market-moving speeches from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and Vice Chairman Rich Clarida and the start of the highly-anticipated G-20 summit in Argentina, next week is also gearing up to be packed with key events. Note, that in memory of President George H.W. Bush, all of the major markets will be closed on Wednesday, December 5.
Regards,
Ted
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/markets-close-wednesday-opec-meets-know-week-ahead-212021723.html

FYI: While for the entire year thus far, the average US stock fund or ETF is showing small positive returns , if one looks at how most funds have done since late January, we see that generally there have been no gains, and even losses.
Ten months is a long period for stocks to have been stalled, especially considering how they did during the prior 5 years from 2013 through 2017. For example, looking at three major domestic stock index funds, we can see this visually:
Regards,
Ted
http://funds-newsletter.com/dec18-newsletter/dec18.htm

I use PRIDX. It's all over the map, with 12.5% in EM. I re-deployed profits earlier this year and am letting the principal ride. I held SFGIX for several years, almost since inception, but unloaded it.

Hi @Derf. The robo is down -1.3% YTD. My self managed is -.6%. Over all down -.9%. Not apples to apples though because the robo is about 60/40 mix of eq/bnds+cash with about 5% gold sprinkled in. Where as I'm more conservative in my self managed portfolio, somewhere around 45% equities.

Not that the tail of taxes should wag the dog of returns, but FWIW: for short term (1 year or less) CDs paying interest at maturity and for short term zero coupon Treasuries, the interest isn't taxable until maturity. So you can often defer taxes on interest for a year.
Also, interest paid by Treasuries is state-tax-free. That can make Treasuries look more attractive than CDs in states with higher income tax rates.
Current rates (per Fidelity):
https://fixedincome.fidelity.com/ftgw/fi/FILanding

Well, NYT Maureen Dowd in a love note today also lists just some of the serious shortcomings:
... he beat Michael Dukakis with the race-baiting Willie Horton campaign designed by Lee Atwater and Roger Ailes. ... sent his national security adviser, Brent Scowcroft, to Beijing for a secret midnight champagne toast with the leaders who perpetrated the Tiananmen Square massacre. ... didn't do nearly enough to combat the AIDS epidemic. ... his White House directed the defense of his Supreme Court nominee, Clarence Thomas, that tried to discredit Anita Hill.
Otoh he did vote for HRC, so there is that, saying publicly he did not like the "blowhard Trump."
Yet too late:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/george-hw-bush-was-the-accidental-catalyst-that-built-the-new-republican-party/2018/12/02/2a4adaf8-f659-11e8-8c9a-860ce2a8148f_story.html

I've read somewhere that, on average, for every 3 (or 4?) up-years for stocks there is one down-year.
The total market has been up every year (including this year, so far) since 2008.
And checking "BND" at M*, the total bond market is down 1.95% YTD, and the only time since BEFORE 2008 (which was an up-year) bonds were down was in 2013 at -2.10%.
I'm not sure what the concern is. Do most people really think that markets should only go up every year?

Just doing a little research on the RiverPark CMBS fund David profiled under "Your 2019 funds watchlist," and the fund history seems a little sketchy, or maybe just poorly reported/covered by the usual online suspects.
The fund's own fact sheet shows performance back to 2010, with a footnote saying that from mid-2010 thru Q3 '16, it was an interval (private) fund. So far, so good. Then, from the beginning of Q4 '16 to to Nov. 12, 2018, when it "was reorganized as an open-end mutual fund," it was something else. Per a brief mention in David's profile, it was apparently a CEF (?).
But M* reports results back to 2016 as if it had been an OEF all that time, but shows zero portfolio info on it, as if it's not a fund they covered until just recently. MarketWatch shows nothing but a current price, no history whatsoever, and Yahoo shows prices as an OEF back to Dec. 4, 2017 (huh?). I web-searched for a CEF that may have existed for the "missing" two years (Q4 2016 to Nov 12 this year) with no luck.
A mystery, then, at least to this kid.
Edit: okay, finally found a reference to what happened in 2016. RiverPark took over the private interval fund (technically closed-end, but not a publicly traded closed-end fund as most of us think of the term) and kept it going as a private interval fund until Nov. 12 this year.
I can't reconcile M* or Yahoo's coverage with the apparent reality, but then that's not an unusual thing. Suffice to say, the fund is now in a format that exposes the investor to liquidity risk, but with an attempt to provide a "quality" overlay to limit that risk. However, I'd think the history as a private fund is not 100% transferable to expectations for the brand new open-end fund.

One recent development is encouraging: at least something approaching the 'normal' negative price correlation between safer rate-sensitive debt and equities is back, as is the positive correlation between risky credit and equities. (No telling how strong for how long.) So at least for now, we can make a halfway intelligent guess that if xxx, then my portfolio will xxx.
At this point, this year's results don't look all that different from 2015-16, well, except for the lurking probability that we're getting close to the end of a major cycle.

Hello all.
For me my near term retruns are much like those that have shared their results. My bogey the lipper balanced index is fairing much like myself and what the others have stated.
Another bogey that I picked up to mark against is Franklin LifeSmart Retirement Fund A (FTRAX). One of the reason I chose this fund for a bogey is that it sports a 4.1% yield which is a little higher yield than my master portfolio at 3.1% but higher than other retirement funds I looked at. As I write, the one, the three, the five and the ten year rolling periods FTRAX has returned 0.52%, 2.83%, 2.42%, and 7.32% respectively. Notice that the funds total return does not cover its yield for the 1, 3 & 5 year periods. This is not good from my perspective; but, it is still a bogey because of its yield. In compairson, my master portfolio sports a current 3.1% yield and its 1, 3, 5 & 10 year rolling total returns are 0.32%, 6.10%, 4.71% & 8.98%. In review, the only period that I have not covered my yield is for the 1 year period.
So if you are in retirement you might wish to review how the portfolio you have assembled is fairing against the tatget-date retirement class of funds. As I write, Morningstar list their collective performance at -0.84%, 3.65% and 3.06% for the rolling 1, 3 & 5 year periods.
Take care,
Old_Skeet

https://www.forbes.com/sites/bobcarlson/2018/11/28/todays-surprising-best-income-investment/#65fb31314836
Near-zero interest rates in the U.S., and negative interest rates in a few countries, sent investors searching the global markets for alternatives.

FYI: We're asking everyday investors like you what you think about how funds disclose important information - and how it could be better.
It's important to us at the SEC to hear from individual investors so we can make it easier for you to choose the investments that are right for you.
Please take a few minutes to answer any or all of these questions - and thank you for your feedback!
Regards,
Ted
https://www.sec.gov/rules/other/2018/33-10503-feedback-flier.html

I think Boston Partners Long/Short Equity BPLEX has been the poster child for comparisons in this fund realm. It seems to do it's very best when the market falls down and goes boom but nothing spectacular otherwise. A quick look at M* shows a somewhat enviable 10-yr return but not much over the last 5 years. Still, it's good to be positive than otherwise.

The article leaves me wanting more. How about comparing to 6 month treasuries or one year treasuries or bond index fund. Also instead of using may 1 how about comparing to picking the 15th or the best day in any given year/
anymaybe the best strategy would be to sell the s+p 500 and owna balanced fund for the period. .