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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • BUY - SELL - HOLD - November 2019
    Kings53man,
    Yeah, I'm big on Wellesley. It's by far my largest holding, so I like this. Are you going with 3 funds or are these just your core? The reason I ask is bonds....
    God bless
    the Pudd
  • BUY - SELL - HOLD - November 2019
    I am building positions in VWIAX-Wellesly, VMNVX-VangGlobLowVol & BAFWX-BrownAdvSusGrowth. I am 15 months away from retirement at the age of 65, slowly selling high SD funds.
  • BUY - SELL - HOLD - November 2019
    Hi @Derf,
    Thank you for your question concerning how much equity a fund can hold and be considered a holding for the income area of the portfolio. There are two income sleeves. One is the income sleeve and the other is the hybrid income sleeve.
    Generaly the income sleeve can hold up to 15% equity with no one fund within the sleeve holding more than what is allowed for a 15% to 30% asset allocation fund. The hybrid income sleeve can hold asset allocation funds that are of the 30% to 50% equity type. Some exceptions may apply.
    Any asset allocation fund that holds more than 50% in equity goes on the equity side of the portfolio and is held in the growth & income area of the portfolio in either the domestic hybrid sleeve or the global hybrid sleeve.
  • Retirement strategies for Widow (or Widower)
    There are the matters of withdrawal (income) stream and investments.
    To keep it as simple as possible, I would suggest whittling the accounts down to five (assuming you trust your spouse enough to keep all taxable moneys in a joint account):
    1. JWROS (or C/P WROS) joint taxable account
    2a and 2b Traditional IRA account for each spouse (with other spouse as beneficiary)
    3a and 3b Roth IRA account for each spouse (with other spouse as beneficiary)
    There are situations where this is not the best arrangement, but it is the simplest and will work for many couples. At death, the IRAs are rolled into the surviving spouse's respective IRAs.
    Keep all accounts with a single brokerage (e.g. Fidelity, Schwab, Vanguard, TDA, etc.) Again for simplicity.
    A simple robo advisor or a basic target date fund will automatically maintain the selected glide path/asset allocation. IMHO there isn't a huge amount of difference in behaviour or cost between these approaches.
    If one wants a little interaction (hand holding) a hybrid robo like Vanguard's (30 basis points, uses Vanguard index funds) may suffice. That also provides someone familiar with the basic needs of the surviving spouse in case questions arise.
    There's a fair amount of automation that can be set up for withdrawals, though it might fall just short of what's needed. One can set up automatic RMDs from the traditional IRA to the taxable account, and automated periodic withdrawals from the taxable account to a bank account. I'm not sure how to automate drawing additional money from the IRA to cover the taxable account cash withdrawals. (One can set up a fixed IRA withdrawal amount, but what happens once the required RMD exceeds that amount?)
    Drawing only from the T-IRA is sometimes not the optimal withdrawal strategy from a tax perspective. It might be better to split withdrawals between the traditional and Roth IRAs to stay in a lower tax bracket. You could automate that as well, but it would not have the flexibility that an advisor managing a discretionary account could provide.
    Absent the discretionary account, the surviving spouse would be responsible for executing advice provided by a financial advisor. That's not completely hands off. Having seen people who freeze at something as simple as moving money from a 0% interest account to a 1.5% bank account, I view "hands off" as a stringent requirement.
  • Social Security ‘Bridge’
    Here's the whole paper:
    https://crr.bc.edu/working-papers/how-best-to-annuitize-defined-contribution-assets/
    About a third is in (relatively) plain English. It discusses why people might want to use annuities and why they might not (both rational and irrational reasons). This includes the newer advanced life deferred annuities ("longevity insurance"). A good summary of the pros and cons.
    The paper compares four options: the baseline (drawing SS at age 65); (1) buying an immediate annuity at age 65 (with 20% or 40% of retirement assets); (2) spending an amount equal to SS's PIA (full retirement benefit) out of 20% or 40% of retirement assets until age 70 or assets depleted, then taking SS; and (3) buying longevity insurance with 20% of retirement assets.
    Generally, non-annuitized assets are drawn down according to RMDs. But if one buys longevity insurance, this doesn't make sense, because at age 85 another income stream kicks in. So the researchers looked at two cases: (a) drawing down according to RMD (i.e. underspending), and (b) spending everything between ages 65 and 85.
    A discussion of the results starts on p. 26 (pdf p. 27). Table 3 summarizes the results. The lower the number, the less you have to spend to get the same result as the baseline. The two cases that came out best were: using 40% of assets to fund income until age 70 and then drawing SS; and buying longevity insurance (spending down everything by age 85).
    A concern with the latter is that you don't have reserves for an emergency around age 85. The next three tables in the results section show how good the strategies are if one assumes random "shocks" (needs for sums of cass). The wealthier you are, the more you can survive shocks even after spending money on annuities (because you're getting higher income from the annuities).
    Perhaps it would only have made a marginal difference, but they might have also considered buying a temporary life annuity to serve as the bridge to SS. That's an annuity that would pay out an income stream from, say, age 65 to age 70 or until death, whichever came first. Since you're betting that you'll live to collect SS at age 70, a temporary life annuity just increases the bet a little. And because you forfeit some money if you don't make it to 70, that temporary annuity costs less than "self-funding" the bridge.
  • Social Security ‘Bridge’
    FYI: Unless you can get a guaranteed annual return of 8% on your retirement savings, employing a Social Security “bridge” with 401(k) and other savings until age 70 is the right move for almost all Americans who can afford to forgo the income.
    This bridge strategy, laid out in a white paper by the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College, works for most people because retirees’ monthly Social Security checks increase 7% to 8% for every year they delay claiming up to age 70, when Social Security benefits max out.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/social-security-bridge-q-a-answers-to-your-questions-about-the-retirement-income-strategy-51573912801?mod=barrons-on-marketwatch
  • BUY - SELL - HOLD - November 2019
    Hi guys,
    Have been doing some buying this month. Have added AEDVX. It's a mad money position. Just want to beat MM. Also have bought FAMEX. It's my last mid cap fund.....that makes 5......no more. Opened a position in FIFNX. It's a new fund. I like what it is, and its list of companies it owns. Also opened new position in FNSTX. Again, another new fund. Opened a position in PGTAX after watching FrontLine.....Season 2019, Episode 5, November 5th ....AI program had to get some. If you have time, watch it. Scarey......
    Also added YCGEX. Also have added some money to funds I already own. I believe we're going higher.
    God bless
    the Pudd
  • Barron's Cover Story: Retirement Savers Are Turning To Dividend Stocks For Income.
    FYI: ( Just remember what the Linkster has always said. Dividends are the mother's milk of investing.)
    For investors who are saving for retirement, dividend stocks are a crucial building block—with reinvested payouts juicing returns during the preretirement phase and providing crucial income to retirees during the drawdown phase.
    Indeed, the once-sleepy world of dividend investing is hot. With their attractive income and yields, dividend stocks not only offer solid returns in an era of ultralow bond yields that doesn’t appear to be ending soon, but also hold the promise of price appreciation. The S&P 500 index’s yield was recently around 1.9%, about even with that of the 10-year U.S. Treasury note—itself a common source of income for retirement savers.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.barrons.com/articles/how-to-generate-income-in-retirement-with-dividend-stocks-51573837865?mod=past_editions
  • IBD: This TCW Mutual Fund Manager Seeks All-Weather Equities: (TGUSX)
    It may be worth noting that concentration and low turnover characterize FAMEX and TGUSX, the latter holding 51% of AUM in its top 10 positions. AKREX has also been very successful with this strategy. 2019 is the first year since the fund opened that there will be any meaningful year-end distribution. The first two funds mentioned also appear to be tax efficient. Another mid-cap fund that shares these characteristics is DFDMX. A wag might venture the thought that the best active management is buying good stocks and holding on for ages.
  • Fidelity, T. Rowe Win Preliminary OK On New Stock-Picking ETFs
    FYI: Fidelity Investments and T. Rowe Price Group Inc. TROW 0.27% were among the firms that won preliminary regulatory approval to offer a new flavor of exchange-traded fund aimed at reviving investors’ interest in stock-picking managers.
    The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on Thursday gave a green light to the firms’ plans, along with those submitted by Natixis Investment Managers and Blue Tractor Group, to create ETFs that choose securities without exposing the managers’ trading tactics.
    The approvals granted Thursday were years in the making, and come months after upstart Precidian Investments secured a go-ahead for its own active ETF model.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/fidelity-t-rowe-win-preliminary-ok-on-new-stock-picking-etfs-11573775502?mod=md_mf_news
  • 2019 Capital Gains distribution estimates
    Conestoga Funds Estimated Distributions - Subject to Change:
    It has been estimated that the Conestoga Small Cap Fund will pay a long-term distribution of $1.265283 per share and the Conestoga SMid Cap Fund will pay a long-term distribution of $0.234968 per share. There are no estimated short-term distributions at this time for either fund. The record date is December 5th, 2019 and the payable date is December 6th, 2019 for both distributions.
    http://www.advisorlaunchpadwebsites.com/0a1681ad-de11-4688-80f9-7aa32b158917/conestoga-smid-cap-fund
    PGIM Investments Mutual Funds (new)
    https://www.pgim.com/pgim-investments/investments-products/mutual-funds/distributions
  • This is now the best bull market ever
    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/14/the-markets-10-year-run-became-the-best-bull-market-ever-this-month.html
    This is now the best bull market ever
    The current market boom, which started March 9, 2009, has enjoyed a whopping 468% gain for the S&P 500 through the first day of November, according to The Leuthold Group.
    This record-long bull run also marks the best-performing one since World War II, the firm says.
    “The most outstanding feature of this cycle since 2008 is always going to be fear,” says Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist at The Leuthold Group.
    Anyone selling/switched to safe equities/bonds yet?
  • IBD: This TCW Mutual Fund Manager Seeks All-Weather Equities: (TGUSX)
    @Simon ah yes forgot about that.... excellent suggestion. I'll also email him. Another fund thats looking great.in risk adjusted terms0 over the last 7 years is FAMEX. David wrote up an analysis of them several.years ago. I was going to see if he could update it.
    FAMEX is a really great fund...a slightly better risk profile than my all time favorite PRDGX which I've held for years and has never disappointed. PRDGX has a much lower fee, of course. I have my IRA with T Rowe and I'm going to check if it's a NTF fund there, otherwise it's a $35 fee to buy which would probably put me off. Thanks for the mention. Both funds are Great Owls.
    If you are listening T Rowe Price - you need to catch up with the trend and eliminate your commissions on many more mutual funds!
  • TDA new MM funds - no-load, no-fee, no STR!
    I think the point is that if you want to keep cash at your current brokerage (here, TDA), there may be decent alternatives, depending on the brokerage.
    Here's Merrill Edge's list of non-proprietary MMFs they offer:
    https://olui2.fs.ml.com/Publish/Content/application/pdf/GWMOL/ICCRateSheet.pdf
    GOFXX is on that list, but Merrill makes it available only in "accounts enrolled in an investment advisory program." Other MMFs are available for DIY investors.
    These days I don't see much need to keep more than a little cash at one's brokerage (except for IRAs). One can transfer cash in from outside banks via ACH and have it available for trading almost immediately. (Having it available for withdrawal can take a couple more days.)
    It's still easy to find banks with APYs going forward of 1.9% or better. CapitalOne, Marcus, Barclays, ...
    Just as one looks at the APY at a bank for interest going forward, with MMFs one looks at the 7 day SEC yield rather than what one earned over the past year (TTM).
    PCOXX seven day yield: 1.74%
    GOFXX seven day yield: 1.59%
    AMAXX seven day yield: 1.31%
    https://www.federatedinvestors.com/products/mutual-funds/prime-cash-obligations/ws.do
    https://www.federatedinvestors.com/products/mutual-funds/govt-obligations/prm.do
    https://www.pimco.com/en-us/investments/mutual-funds/government-money-market-fund/a
    If I were looking outside my brokerage for a MMF, I'd stick with Vanguard:
    VMMXX seven day yield 1.79%. (TTM as of Oct. 31 was 2.33%)
    VUSXX (state tax exempt) 1.73%. (TTM 2.23%)
    https://investor.vanguard.com/mutual-funds/profile/VMMXX
    https://investor.vanguard.com/mutual-funds/profile/VUSXX
  • This Tax-Free 5.1% Dividend Is Hiding In Plain Sight
    Talk about comparing apples to oranges!!
    VOO has probably gone up 25% this year.
  • Harbor Small Cap Value Opportunities Fund to liquidate
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/793769/000119312519290896/d815234d497.htm
    497 1 d815234d497.htm HARBOR SMALL CAP VALUE OPPORTUNITIES FUND - SUPPLEMENT TO PROSPECTUS
    Harbor Domestic Equity Funds
    Supplement to Prospectus dated March 1, 2019
    Harbor Small Cap Value Opportunities Fund
    The Board of Trustees of Harbor Funds (the “Trust”) has determined to liquidate and dissolve the Harbor Small Cap Value Opportunities Fund (the “Fund”). The liquidation of the Fund is expected to occur on December 20, 2019 (the “Liquidation Date”). The liquidation proceeds will be distributed to any remaining shareholders of the Fund on the Liquidation Date.
    Shareholders may exchange shares of the Fund for another Harbor fund, or redeem shares out of the Fund, in accordance with the Trust’s exchange and redemption policies as set forth in the Fund’s prospectus, until the Liquidation Date.
    In order to ready the Fund for liquidation, the Fund’s portfolio of investments will be transitioned prior to the planned Liquidation Date to one that consists of all or substantially all cash and cash equivalents. As a result, shareholders should no longer expect that the Fund will seek to achieve its investment objective.
    Because the Fund will be liquidating, the Fund is now closed to new investors. The Fund will no longer accept additional investments from existing shareholders beginning on December 2, 2019.
    November 13, 2019
  • IBD: This TCW Mutual Fund Manager Seeks All-Weather Equities: (TGUSX)
    I'm thinking as the market currents change so will the fund's sector orientation. TGUNX reminds me of a fund that I was invested in a few years back ... Ivy Asset Strategy, WASAX. When it was a relative small and nimble fund it was able to followed a sector rotation and positioning strategy in short order; but, as it grew in size it became more difficult for it to position and then reposition. Some say it's repositioning one day lead to the flash crash. With this, I sold the fund since it no doubt was left to modify its investment strategy.
    I have linked below a Morningstar article that covers the flash crash and WASAX in more detail.
    https://www.morningstar.com/articles/356552/our-take-on-ivy-asset-strategys-flash-crash-fallout
    Then there was Marketfield (MFLDX). While it was small it indeed was an exciting fund to be invested in before Mainstay bought it. Assets continued to grow and the fund became bloated and inefficient. Old_Skeet then sold his shares as the fund flamed out as Mainstay would not close the fund to new investors.
    Below is a link that covers MFLDX's flame out.
    https://www.barrons.com/articles/what-happend-with-alts-flame-out-mainstay-marketfield-1473949171
    Perhaps, the managers of TGUNX will govern with better wisdom than the managers of WASAX and MFLDX did.
    No doubt ... time will tell.