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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • David’s August MFO Commentary ....Here!
    I have held FPPTX for numerous years. After Rodriguez moved up in the company, the fund was never the same afterwards. I also owned QRSVX some years ago, but it didn't really move for the several years I owned it so I sold it.
    The combination is supposed to be complete in the fourth quarter 2020. There will not be any sizeable capital gains distributions as the FPPTX is in a CG loss position according to M*. Have not seen any new SEC filings yet.
    FPPTX is less than double the size of total AUM ($200 million) larger than QRSVX ($132 million). Keeping the "I" shares will be interesting. Can I exchange money into other FPA "I" funds?
    I will post any filings as they come up.
  • IOFIX Imposes 1% Redemption Fee
    I honestly believe there is a strong case for a lawsuit here—mispriced on the way down and mispriced on the way back up so some shareholders get more than they deserve and some a lot less. This should never have been an open end mutual fund. The assets aren’t liquid enough. I also think while a 1% redemption fee is useful, shareholders with double digit losses will simply take the loss and move on regardless of paying the extra 1% if things get volatile again.
  • IOFIX Imposes 1% Redemption Fee
    Twentieth Century Giftrust- that's a name I hadn't heard of in a while.
    The Surprising Success of a Dumb Investment
    What are the lessons I take from all this? First and most important, the experience illustrates how much wealth you can build even if you don’t invest in just the right stock funds. Buying, holding and watching your money grow is really hard to do—witness the Giftrust lawsuits—but it usually pays off.
    But I also learned that every investment strategy goes in and out of style. And so it was with Giftrust’s momentum strategy. What’s more, Giftrust was 20% more volatile than the S&P over the past 15 years. I’ve never known a fund that didn’t ultimately pay the price for such high volatility. In investing, slow and steady really does win the race.
  • GAEG - NYL Anchor
    Thank you for the information! But that leads me to another question:
    There are only 2 companies that have a higher rating than US Treasuries - Microsoft and J and J.
    From a chart shown in the link below, MS outperformed NASDAQ by 73% and large caps by 123%.
    If it is safe, why wouldn't a large percentage of investors have at least some of this stock in their portfolio?
    https://www.netcials.com/stock-10-year-history/MSFT-Microsoft-Corporation/
  • IOFIX Imposes 1% Redemption Fee
    AFAIK, the longest redemption fee period ever was imposed on (no surprise) Vanguard Horizon funds. These were four funds created as long term investments on August 14, 1995. The fee was 1% on shares redeemed in less than five years.
    Here's the last prospectus (Feb 27, 2001) where the fee was imposed on all the funds.
    On April 6, 2001, Vanguard made changes to three of the four funds:
    Vanguard Global Asset Allocation (VHAAX) was designated to be terminated on July 27, 2001.
    Vanguard Global Equity fund (VHGEX) ended its redemption fee.
    Vanguard Strategic Equity Fund (VSEQX) ended its redemption fee.
    It would be a while longer before Vanguard dropped the redemption fee on its Capital Opportunity Fund (VHCOX). And now you know where the 'H' in the ticker came from.
    (Note: I exclude funds like Twentieth Century Gifttrust, which could not be redeemed, period, for at least ten years.)
  • M* Fund Spy: How Risky Is Risky in World-Bond Funds?
    +1. And I suppose that makes my holding in RPSIX a good thing. It holds about 14% in equities, too, in order to "juice" yearly results just a bit.
  • GAEG - NYL Anchor
    Stable value funds ... “invest in both short- and intermediate-term securities and follow the traditional concept of investing where the value of money over time generates a higher yield,” notes John Faustino, chief product and strategy officer at Fi360 in Lawton, Michigan. “They tend to hold investments that are slightly less liquid and, as a result, have a higher yield. Plus, they have an insurance wrapper that protects the value of the assets should there be a fluctuation or a decrease in the assets’ value.”
    https://www.plansponsor.com/in-depth/choosing-stable-value-money-market-fund/
    Here, the insurer is NY LIfe.
    Safety? NY Life is one of two insurers rated as highly as the US Treasury by all four major rating agencies. It would be rated even higher, except being a financial institution, S&P figures that if the Treasury collapses, it will drag NY Life down with it. (There are two non-financial companies with higher ratings than the Treasury.)
  • M* Fund Spy: How Risky Is Risky in World-Bond Funds?
    am glad that yields aren't NEGATIVE (yet.)
    Oh, ye of too much faith. A few days ago I was looking through funds a tad up the risk scale past "near cash", and found a few short term government funds with negative yields (at least negative 30 day SEC yields): GSSDX, FFXSX, FIGIX, BTTTX, TWUSX, and CGBAX.
    See here (for GSSDX) and here (for the others). I've listed from best (-0.05%) to worst (-0.65%) SEC yields.
    As you observed, "the value of our currency will be falling off a cliff", which makes it a good time to buy unhedged foreign securities.
  • MetWest Flexible Income Fund - MWFEX, MWFSX
    Cash is up to 53.7% as if 7/31. That’s kind of crazy.
    Assets have tripled since I started the thread, up to 31 million now.
  • GAEG - NYL Anchor
    Can anyone explain what exactly this fund is? I don't fully understand it.
    I invested 25% of in it a couple of years ago because I was told it was one of the safest funds in my companies 401k offerings. The only other relatively semi safe funds offered are FXNAX and MWTSX. I have 25% in the former and the remaining 50% in CDs in IRA's.
    I am still working at 68and will continue (knock on wood). I want to preserve what I have if possible.
    Is this fund as safe as CD's?
  • M* Fund Spy: How Risky Is Risky in World-Bond Funds?
    I'd rather be getting a decent yield, in the neighborhood of 5% or so. I'm settling for a lower yield, and am glad that yields aren't NEGATIVE (yet.) I have a third bond fund which assists in pulling up my yield PTIAX. ...Still, yields are coming DOWN while share prices are rising....I'm still receiving a decent share of the rise in stocks, too. My domestic and international stock funds = 35% of portfolio. Staying conservatively diversified.
    ...But the rules of the game have changed, it's true. We are 100% divorced from fundamentals. I don't even want to think about what it will be like when the world's Central Banks pull the plug on stimulus. In the meantime, the value of our currency will be falling off a cliff.
    Today:
    Canada: $1.33
    Yen: 105.5
    euro: $1.18 (18% lower than the euro.)
    pound sterling: $1.31 (Not long ago, we were at $1.25)
    Filipino peso: 49.09 down from 52, lately.
  • IOFIX Imposes 1% Redemption Fee
    Thanks Charles. IOFIX since the crisis bottom has been the bond trade of the decade along with its sisters BDKAX, SEMPX, and others in the beaten down mortgage space. The last such trade was junk corporates in 2009 and before that emerging markets debt in 1999. Back further was junk corporates in 1991. Notice the theme here? Black swan events in 2020 (Covid liquidity crisis) 2008 (housing crisis) 1997/1998 (Asian currency crisis) and 1990 (Drexel Lambert) And after each crisis everyone was too scared to venture back in thinking a repeat is right around the corner. I love the fund company has imposed this fee. It will make for a more stable asset base.
  • M* - How to Create Cash Flows in Retirement
    by Christine Benz
    Mentioned: T. Rowe Price Dividend Growth (PRDGX) , Vanguard Dividend Growth Inv (VDIGX) , Vanguard Dividend Appreciation Index Adm (VDADX) , Vanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF (VIG) , Vanguard High Dividend Yield ETF (VYM)
    "It’s something that even casual market observers know well: Yields on bonds and cash have been going down, largely unabated, for almost three decades. Just when it seemed they had reached their nadir, payouts have taken another leg down. The yield on the 10-year Treasury was just 0.51% on August 4, its lowest level since the equity-market panic back in March. Yields on lower-quality U.S. bonds spiked during the equity-market duress in the first quarter, but they too have drifted back down more recently."
    Article Here
  • The Fed is expected to make a major commitment to ramping up inflation soon
    >> The way it's currently done
    Posted inflation data are chronically 4y out of date? That seems the conclusion, but I wonder; you'd think that would be bruited everywhere all the time.
    I think what it's saying is that while the 2016 CPI is computed using 2016 prices, the weights in the 2016 basket are based on consumer surveys asking what people spent money on in 2013. (And 2017 CPI is based on 2014 weights.)
  • The Fed is expected to make a major commitment to ramping up inflation soon
    The cost of the residential natural gas itself has gone down from 29¢ per therm (July 2019) to 24¢ per therm (July 2020). Not a down a third, just down a sixth.
    Cost of gas to your home is a total cost. That depends on how much gas you use, which varies year by year, and also on the cost of the last mile transport to your home. The latter is around 4x-6x times the cost of the gas itself. So that's the real determinant of cost, and a pretty stable one. I would guess that it is not a cost factor incurred by commercial users.
    Still, looking at average total residential gas costs, they dropped by about 7% over the same one year period, from $24.03 to $22.32. (That's attributable almost entirely to slightly less use per household.)
    https://www.pge.com/tariffs/Residential.pdf
  • The Fed is expected to make a major commitment to ramping up inflation soon
    That's the issue I was alluding to in my apparently feeble attempt at a joke about buying up cheap airline tickets. How, and how quickly, the basket of goods should be adjusted for consumer purchase patterns is a good question.
    The way it's currently done: "The CPI market basket is developed from detailed expenditure information provided by families and individuals on what they actually bought. There is a time lag between the expenditure survey and its use in the CPI. For example, CPI data in 2016 and 2017 was based on data collected from the Consumer Expenditure Surveys for 2013 and 2014."
    https://www.bls.gov/cpi/questions-and-answers.htm#Question_2
    The construction industry has its own problems with boom and bust cycles. On that basis alone it would seem to make more sense to smooth the prices of its materials over a full cycle rather than to project "boom" price increases to the present.
    Here's a graph with more current data:
    image
    And the current breakdown by component:
    image
    News release (Associated Builders and Contractors): https://abc.org/News-Media/News-Releases/entryid/17880/monthly-construction-input-prices-rise-in-june-says-abc
  • The Fed is expected to make a major commitment to ramping up inflation soon
    Tracking U.S. Lumber, Steel, Concrete, Gypsum, Glass, and Other Construction Material Costs
    Here
    @msf - please note the 3-year price increases from 2016-2019 (left side of chart). What’s more important? An airplane seat or a dry roof over one’s head?
  • The Fed is expected to make a major commitment to ramping up inflation soon
    "Do these people EVER walk into a grocery store ...?"
    Sounding like a broken record, I'll repeat that people tend to notice "pain" (rising prices, investment losses) more than they notice positive events (prices going down, investments gaining). Also that the CPI incorporates prices of everything, not just the ones going up. Perhaps we need an ulcer index for prices?
    It's likely you haven't noticed the deals one can get now on airplane trips. Wait, you mean you're not taking advantage of all these travel bargains? :-)
    WaPo: For the unemployed, rising grocery prices strain budgets even more
    Beef and veal prices rose 20.2 percent, and eggs rose 10.4 percent since February, according to data released Friday by the Bureau of Economic Analysis
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/08/04/grocery-prices-unemployed/
    Overall inflation has not been a pressing concern since the recession touched down in February. Last week, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome H. Powell said consumer prices have been kept in check due to weak demand, especially in sectors such as travel and hospitality that have been most affected by the pandemic. But food prices are the exception.
  • M* Fund Spy: How Risky Is Risky in World-Bond Funds?
    Bonds at current world-wide rates are the nearest thing to poison (IMHO). Than again ... most financial assets appear overpriced. A sign of the times. Global bond funds (which include U.S. issues) and International bond funds (ex-U.S.), like other bond funds, are affected by credit quality, duration, maturity and the fund manager’s expertise at analyzing quality - particularly for “non-rated” bonds. Additionally, these funds also often employ derivatives - not easy for most investors to evaluate in terms of risk.
    Expenses are particularly important to bond funds. As a proportion of return, fees represent a higher % and therefore affect return on investment to a greater degree than for equity funds. Hedged or Unhedged? It’s a significant consideration. Unhedged funds tend to experience wider (also “wilder“) swings in value, but should protect better against a depreciating dollar. Most of these funds hedge in varying degree rather than being 100% hedged / 100% unhedged.
    As your prospectus should state, non-U.S. investments (including bonds) generally are subject to higher expenses and greater risk than U.S. domiciled holdings.