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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Government Statistics: Trump fires labor statistics chief after weaker than expected jobs report
    And these additions, from a report in The New York Times:
    President Trump unleashed his fury about weakness in the labor market on Friday, saying without evidence that the data were “manipulated” and that he was firing the Senate-confirmed Department of Labor official responsible for pulling together the numbers each month.
    In a long post on social media on Friday, Mr. Trump said he had directed his team to fire Erika McEntarfer, the commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics who was confirmed on a bipartisan basis in 2024.
    Only hours earlier, Stephen Miran, the chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, offered a much different explanation for the jobs revision. In an appearance on CNBC, he said much of the change was the result of “quirks in the seasonal adjustment process” and even the president’s own policies, particularly on immigration, potentially affecting hiring numbers for May and June. He made no mention of any concerns about manipulated data.
  • Government Statistics: Trump fires labor statistics chief after weaker than expected jobs report
    A report from The Guardian:
    Donald Trump has said he’s ordered the firing of Erika McEntarfer, the commissioner of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, hours after data showed US employment growth was weaker than expected for the last few months.
    McEntarfer was nominated by former president Joe Biden to serve in the role in 2023 and was confirmed by the US Senate the following year.
    In a Truth Social post, Trump suggested (with no evidence) that the employment figures were inaccurate and insisted the US economy was booming under his administration.
    “We need accurate Jobs Numbers. I have directed my Team to fire this Biden Political Appointee, IMMEDIATELY. She will be replaced with someone much more competent and qualified,” Trump wrote.
    The bureau released revised job stats today which showed the US economy added only 73,000 jobs in July, far lower than expected, amid ongoing concerns with Trump’s escalating trade war.
    In the report, the BLS also slashed the number of jobs added in May, revising the figure down by 125,000, from 144,000 to only 19,000, and June, which was revised down by 133,000, from 147,000 to just 14,000 – a combined 258,000 fewer jobs than previously reported.
    OK folks- any government statistics are now only what Trump says they are. Good luck to everyone !
  • The 'Health' of our Healthcare funds are no longer Healthy for conservative equity holdings
    We have owned PRHSX since Jan 2013. I would put the underperformance relative to the S&P500 as starting in Sept 2015. It has still made money, just not as much as a good index fund.
  • Tariffs
    Excellent post this a.m. from Krugman about the attempted tariff extortion on Brazil to save his authoritarian pal Bolsonaro from trial, conviction, and prison.
    Short version: It's delusions of grandeur to an absurd level: Dump doesn't have "the juice" to pull it off. Brazil isn't dependent enough on the U.S. to get them to blow up their legal landscape to please Dump. And it's clearly illegal to use tariffs to interfere in the entirely internal affairs of another nation.
    Oh, and if anyone's worried about orange juice prices, it's exempted from the 50%, making the extortion demand even more absurd.
    Investment implications: Don't need to worry overly much about investments in Brazil or in OJ, e.g., Tropicana (PepsiCo) and Simply Orange (Coca-Cola).
    And yet ol' Donnie would absolutely blow a screed-laced gasket if some country 'sanctioned' a judge here for something similar.
    This is not 'his' government for 'his' personal use and benefit. Sadly, few in this town are willing to publicly agree with that sentiment.
  • Tariffs
    Excellent post this a.m. from Krugman about the attempted tariff extortion on Brazil to save his authoritarian pal Bolsonaro from trial, conviction, and prison.
    Short version: It's delusions of grandeur to an absurd level: Dump doesn't have "the juice" to pull it off. Brazil isn't dependent enough on the U.S. to get them to blow up their legal landscape to please Dump. And it's clearly illegal to use tariffs to interfere in the entirely internal affairs of another nation.
    Oh, and if anyone's worried about orange juice prices, it's exempted from the 50%, making the extortion demand even more absurd.
    Investment implications: Don't need to worry overly much about investments in Brazil or in OJ, e.g., Tropicana (PepsiCo) and Simply Orange (Coca-Cola).
  • Corporation For Public Broadcasting To Shut Down Operations
    I'm away for the remainder of the day. I'm sure more info with be forthcoming.
    Very short article on this fresh news
  • The 'Health' of our Healthcare funds are no longer Healthy for conservative equity holdings
    I cashed out my healthcare fund today for a break even after a 5-yr hold.However I still maintain my singular ABBV position. I might possibly add to it but I'd like to see how the pricing demands and loss of Medicaid/Medicare coverage effects valuation going forward.
  • Tariffs
    Future market is down for Friday, August 1, 2025.
    https://finviz.com/futures.ashx
    So much wins as he sent out tariffs letters to many counties before the artificial August 1st deadline. Most notable countries are India 25%, Canada 35%, and Switzerland 39%.
    Dollar is trending lower on Friday.after an upward trend for this week. Also earning season is upon us.
  • Portfolio Software Reviewed
    PORTFOLIO ANALYTICS SOFTWARE (Part I)
    https://indoustribune.com/business/finance/portfolio-analytics-software-2025/
    If you have multiple investment accounts, it becomes difficult to monitor all those portfolios. There are several portfolio analytics software that handle uploaded, stored or linked portfolios, but don't have any transactional capabilities. The analytics may include total-returns (TRs), rolling-returns, inflation-adjustments, portfolio value charts, drawdowns, U/D CR, benchmarking, SWRs/PWRs, MPT statistics (alpha, beta, correlation, standard deviation, Sharpe Ratio, etc), etc.
    MFO Premium (MFOP)
    It has great analytics at low-cost that is partially tax deductible. Partial site updates are daily, weekly, biweekly or monthly. It can handle mutual funds/OEFs, ETFs, CEFs & insurance VAs (internal tickers, selected Q-tickers), but not stocks. There is charting for portfolio components but not for portfolio values. Monthly return data are used for analytics. There are regular enhancements. MFOP runs are not linkable. MFO = Mutual Fund Observer; it's a 501c3 organization.
    Portfolio Visualizer (PV)
    Its free version is now limited to 10-year lookback from the date of the PV run, so that practically means 9 recent full years; the subscription version has medium-high costs. The PV runs can be longer with older start & end dates. It can handle mutual funds/OEFs, ETFs, CEFs & stocks. Portfolio can be manually entered or uploaded from Excel or csv files. An interesting feature is to include cash additions or withdrawals as percentages or that are uniform (with or without inflation-adjustments; default balances are nominal, but inflation-adjustment balances are also available). Monthly return data are used for analytics. PV runs are linkable.
    TestFol
    It's relatively new & rapidly evolving. It has a free version only & maybe a good substitute for PV as it doesn't have timeframe limitations. It can handle mutual funds/OEFs, ETFs, CEFs, stocks, & some VAs with Q-tickers. Login isn't offered, but it saves recent portfolios using browsers' local storage features. Cash additions/ withdrawals are also available. Unfortunately, the inflation-adjustment is applied to both the additions/ withdrawals (good) & final balances (not good), so the results won't match with the default balance values in PV. A unique feature is that it uses daily return data, so its MPT statistics won't match those from sites using monthly return data. Sometimes, the daily return data jumps around the ex-div dates & that may introduce small errors in MPT stats. Several rolling-stats are also available (TRs, SDs, Sharpe Ratios, etc). TestFol runs are linkable.
    COMPREHENSIVE PORTFOLIO SOFTWARE (Part II)
    https://indoustribune.com/business/finance/comprehensive-portfolio-software-morningstar-stock-rover/
    These have both transactional & analytics capabilities. There are 2 ways that a portfolio software can get transactional information for buys & sells, & distribution reinvestments. The first way is the manual entry capability that used to be more common. The second way that is more popular now is with link to the brokerage or fund family. Investors may be concerned about security risks of account linking; moreover, evaluating test portfolios isn't possible.
    Morningstar Portfolio
    This is a rapidly evolving new product at a low-cost; try multiyear subscription discount to lower costs. It started with very limited manual capabilities, but those are getting better. The portfolio analytics remain weak. The monthly return data are used for analytics. It will eventually replace the old Morningstar Legacy Portfolio (counted as +) that has great manual capabilities including auto-reinvestments (with just a click). Both versions are available for now & all changes made in Morningstar Legacy Portfolios are reflected in Morningstar Portfolio, but not always so for the reverse.
    Stock Rover (SR)
    It has a free version, but for portfolio analytics, SR-Premium with low-cost is needed. While feature rich, it isn't very user-friendly & has a steep learning-curve. The manual mode requires manual reinvestments of distributions & that may become a monthly time-consuming chore, but if not done regularly, the portfolio data will drift from true values. A unique feature is that it uses daily return data, so its MPT statistics won't be comparable to those from sites using monthly return data.
    The list of portfolio software featured in Part I & II isn't comprehensive. It provides insights into 5+ portfolio software with which the author has direct familiarity - 3 for Analytics (see 7/18/25 issue) & 2+ Comprehensive. Some brokers also have good portfolio capabilities, for example, Fidelity Full View. Experienced DIY investors may develop their own portfolio software using Excel or Google Sheets. Excluded from consideration here were pure charting & family budgeting software.
  • Morningstar Prospects List
    PGIM is a good bond firm but I don't know if the current environment is conducive to good CLO performance.
    Last year I posted a line about how PAAA should be the safest of the AAA CLO funds.
    https://mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/comment/183769/#Comment_183769
    Now that we've had a small opportunity to see how it performed in a more challenging environment (early April 2025), Seeking Alpha has posted a longer piece on PAAA. It includes this graph showing its relative safety (vis a via JAAA).
    image
    https://seekingalpha.com/article/4789069-paaa-among-the-safest-aaa-clo-etf
    One can zoom out a little and compare PAAA, JAAA, and FLRN against FFRHX over PAAA's short (two year) lifetime. Here's the Portfolio Visualizer comparison.
    All three of those funds hold up much better than bank loan funds; at least they did in spring 2025. PAAA and FLRN held value (on a monthly basis) while JAAA lost a little, and FLRN dipped more significantly. On a daily basis (from M* charts), the max drawdowns from April 2, 2025 were: PAAA -1.04%; FLRN -1.43%; JAAA -1.46%; FFRHX -2.52%.
    One short month doesn't prove anything, but it's the best data we've got on PAAA and it offers a small measure of reassurance.
  • The 'Health' of our Healthcare funds are no longer Healthy for conservative equity holdings
    From January 1, 1998 through June 30, 2025, the pharmaceuticals/health products industry
    spent significantly more money lobbying than any other industry.
    During this period, it spent $6.47B while the "second-place" industry (insurance) spent "only" $3.82B.
    I'm very much in favor of lower overall prescription drug prices for Americans.
    I doubt prescription drug prices will decrease in a meaningful way since the pharmaceuticals/health products
    industry wields so much influence via their legal bribery lobbying expenditures.
    This is one instance where I hope to be proven wrong.
    https://www.opensecrets.org/federal-lobbying/industries?cycle=a
  • vanguard's 40\60 is the new 60\40, w/ u.s. 20% max
    bit surprising vanguard seeks publicity for their model results ...have also seen like results at other allocaters.
    in no way am i a typical vanguard client, but i hit close to this mix late in 2024.
    https://fortune.com/2025/07/24/the-investment-chief-at-10-trillion-giant-vanguard-says-its-time-to-pivot-away-from-u-s-stocks/
  • Might Tariffs Get “Overturned”?

    by Barry Ritholtz
    Might Tariffs Get “Overturned”?
    Somebody’s paying the tariffs. Looks like it’s you.
  • Tariffs
    Hi @Old_Joe Apparently, there is a delay of the newest tariffs. Reportedly, if your watch ships prior to August 8th, you're good to go. Canada's new 35% rate apparently isn't clear what the new rate will apply towards.
    AND, The White House also has plans for 50% tariffs on Brazil which are set to be in fully in effect one day sooner — as that order is operating under its own seven-day clock that began Wednesday.
    Lastly, it's hard to read the full rules of these agreements written on cheap paper napkins with cheap ink pens.
    This is why you don't elect a reality TV dufus to run the country.
  • Tariffs
    Hi @Old_Joe Apparently, there is a delay of the newest tariffs. Reportedly, if your watch ships prior to August 8th, you're good to go. Canada's new 35% rate apparently isn't clear what the new rate will apply towards.
    AND, The White House also has plans for 50% tariffs on Brazil which are set to be in fully in effect one day sooner — as that order is operating under its own seven-day clock that began Wednesday.
    Lastly, it's hard to read the full rules of these agreements written on cheap paper napkins with cheap ink pens.
  • Tariffs
    Canada just got bumped to 35%, as T is pissed about Carney stating that Canada would support a Palestine state, with conditions; at the upcoming NATO meeting.
  • Tariffs
    Per BBG, the full list of tarriffs (er, sorry, "insane tax increase on Americans") going into effect at midnight ... including 39% on stuff from Switzerland...
    https://archive.ph/I5PQJ
  • IShares Active Infrastructure ETF
    I wish there were some more concentrated positions and fewer airports.
    ISTM that one might be even more concerned about the size of airport holdings in GLIFX. Like BILT, it has five airport stocks. At least if I've counted correctly. But with half as many stocks overall, those five account for twice the percentage of total assets (17.21% vs 9.75%).
    Stock				BILT	GLIFX
    AENA SME SA 6.61% 1.86%
    FLUGHAFEN ZUERICH AG 0.74% 1.62%
    VINCI SA 0.50% 4.87%
    AEROPORTS DE PARIS SA 0.98%
    JAPAN AIRPORT TERMINAL LTD 0.92%
    Ferrovial SE 7.74%
    Auckland International Airport Ltd 1.12%
    Also, as with gold assets, there are airport stocks and there are airport stocks. Some airport companies actually own the airports (just as some gold holdings are really gold) while other companies manage airport operations (just as some gold holdings are mining operations).
    I like GLIFX, I've owned it in the past (sold to simplify portfolio, not because of dissatisfaction). GLIFX is available (with TF) with a $1 min at Schwab and a $10K min in a Fidelity IRA.
    BILT and GLIFX are sufficiently concentrated that one can read through all their holdings to get a better sense of how they invest.