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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • David Snowball's June Commentary Is Now Available:
    I suspect Mr. Ashton's hedge fund pays the bills. As I noted in the piece, money flooded in when he crushed in both '08 and '09; having shown up after they should have, investors grew impatient at 7-9% returns with muted volatility and began tricking out. At this point, he's running a fund where he know the bulk of his investors by name. At $25 million, he covers his fixed expenses and offers a service to those who've stuck with him; at much below $25 million ...
    David
  • Wealth Management Secrets That Beat The Ivy League
    FYI:
    Regards,
    Ted
    Business is full of acronyms, some better than others. A favorite of mine is KISS — Keep It Simple, Stupid, which has surprising relevance when it comes to wealth management secrets.
    And that’s the explanation, in fittingly modest Midwestern terms, that we get from the manager of the equally modest endowment of Carthage College in Kenosha, Wis.
    In the 10 years ending June 2017, that manager — a former beer company executive named Bill Abt — simply slayed the big, fancy endowments, including Harvard.
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/wealth-management-secrets-that-beat-the-ivy-league-2018-06-05/print
  • David Snowball's June Commentary Is Now Available:
    A fund that’s been open since ‘05 with only 25 mil? That is odd. I read more than a decade ago that most funds feel they need at least 50 mil to remain viable. Kudos to management for staying with it. In a fund that small, a high ER wouldn’t concern me too much. It’s to be expected. And should come down as assets grow.
    I did detect a generous dose of sarcasm within the thread Lewis linked. It’s to be expected anytime the prevailing wisdom here is confronted with the stark reality that some see value in cash. Not sure why that bothers them so much. But let’s be frank: Saying you favor holding a large dose of cash is tantamount to showing up at a wild booze-binge, and than sitting off in a corner sipping ginger ale. Just doesn’t cut it.
    -
    Edit: To be fair (and so as not to be dismissive of the other side) a case can be made for investing cash yourself rather than paying a manager 2+% to do it for you.
  • Self-Directed 401(k) Investors Favor Mutual Funds, Increase Account Balances
    FYI: People with self-directed brokerage accounts within their retirement plans invested the largest percentage of assets in mutual funds in the first quarter 2018, according to new Charles Schwab report.
    The report analyzed investment trends from approximately 137,000 Schwab retirement plans with self-directed accounts that have balances between $5,000 and $10 million.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.fa-mag.com/news/self-directed-401-k--investors-favor-mutual-funds--increase-account-balances-38995.html?print
  • Weekly Market Recap May 27, 2018
    FYI: The second week in a row of low volatility which is usually advantage bulls. Monday saw a nice spike up for indexes and then the other four days of the week the range was very narrow. Monday’s rally was due to the lessening chance of TRADE WARS!
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.stocktrader.com/2018/05/28/weekly-market-recap-may-27-2018/
  • granular look at PIMIX (PONAX)
    Thanks for posting the Morningstar report of PIMIX. I've been thinking of adding its A share offering PONAX to my income sleeve. In addition, two other stock like PIMCO funds I've been looking at are PSPAX which seeks to out perform the S&P 500 Index and PCKAX which seeks to out perform the Russell 2000 Index through the use of some fixed income strategies and derivatives. Currently, I own PCLAX which is a commodity strategy fund. I'm thinking that these additions would make for a good package of Pimco products. Anybody have any other Pimco funds they are fond of I might consider?
  • Buy - Sell - Ponder - June 2018
    @Puddnhead: FMIJX and whatever class of Euro Pacific Growth is in my TIAA have large European holdings and mediocre performance. BCSVX, on the other hand, has done really well in European SMIDs. MOTI, the wide-moat M* index international ETF, with 56% in Europe has not held on to last year’s strong gains. The French CAC has been stuck around 5400 for what seems like eons. I would not put new dough into a European index fund, but I did trim my under-performers and add to BCSVX.
  • Buy - Sell - Ponder - June 2018
    Just bought Macy's Corp bond.. Much better yields than CD 5.7% but mature 2042 bbb+rated
    Macy's probably will not bankrupt... Did survive in 2008 and may compete reasonably w peers and amazon
    https://www.macroaxis.com/invest/bond/M/55616XAG2
  • Buy - Sell - Ponder - June 2018
    @BenWP, Since the fall of 2017 I am up about 25% in PCLAX which includes fund distributions paid out. I am not sure what the quarterly fund distribution will be scheduled to be paid in June. The one paid in March was very little (zilch) and a disappointment. Last year PCLAX began its upward move during the summer which has lasted, thus far, through most of May 2018.
  • Buy - Sell - Ponder - June 2018
    Ed Yardeni's stock market forecast is linked below: and, I believe worth the read. He is projecting end of year valuation for the S&P 500 at 3100 and favors the following sectors: financials, technology, consumer discreationary and industrials. In addition, he feels small caps have a ways to run. A readers market survey is found towards the end of the article.
    Enjoy the read.
    https://www.cnbc.com/2018/06/01/earnings-not-geopolitical-noise-is-important-to-markets-ed-yardeni.html
  • Buy - Sell - Ponder - June 2018
    As we enter June Old_Skeet's market barometer indicates that the S&P 500 Index is in the high range of fair value (and just short of being reflected as undervalued) with a reading of 154 baed upon the barometer's metrics. Last weeks reading was 153. Unless market conditions warrant otherwise the next scheduled barometer report will be made around the first part of July.
    And, as I close out May better than 40% of my portfolio is invested in hybrid funds (that are pretty active in the markets) so I now leave it to them to do the majority of the portfolio's positioning and asset allocation tweaking as we move into and through summer. For the most part, I now invest around the edges. Currently, my buy activity of late has been to add to my convertible securities fund (FISCX), my commodity strategy fund (PCLAX), open new positions in AOFAX & FWAFX, roll a maturing cd into a new one paying 2.55% along with moving excess portfolio cash into one of my money market mutual funds (GBAXX). My recent sell activity (booking profits) were in two funds THOAX and DDIAX as they were no longer meeting my expectations. Now that two of my money market mutual funds GBAXX and AMAXX are built my excess cash will now be going into AFAXX. Hopefully, by the time (or before) it is built out I'll be finding some new equity investment opportunity. Otherwise, I'll continue to build cash and perhaps expand my CD ladder along with building out a few mutal fund positions which are presently under construction. My positions under construction are as follows: AFAXX (0% complete), CTFAX (65% complete), FISCX (75% complete), NEFZX (80% complete), FWAFX (25% complete), AOFAX (25% complete), PCLAX (85% complete) along with my CD ladder (75% complete).
  • Free Market at Work: Trump orders halt to shutdown of coal and nuclear plants
    @vintagefreak
    My problem with your analysis is this:
    https://theatlantic.com/business/archive/2017/04/the-silent-crisis-of-retail-employment/523428/
    I was just looking at the Bureau of Labor Statistics latest unemployment stats and something like 885,000 retail workers are now unemployed and only about 20,000 in the mining industry. According to the linked Atlantic article, 40% of retail sector employees are ethnic minorities and 60% of them are female. Meanwhile 95% of mining employees are white males. Another Macy’s closed in my neck of the woods. Why isn’t the federal government stepping in to help those workers if thought must be spared?
  • How does INDEX differ from RSP?
    I'll let Mr. Snowball do the heavy lifting in responding to your question? How does the Index differ from RSP?
    https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/2018/06/index-funds-sp-500-equal-weight-index/
  • How does INDEX differ from RSP?
    It has more letters and it costs slightly more .ER .25 vs .2
    And I guess you won't foolishly trade it more than once a day.
    It does cost more to invest in at TDA - a "transaction fee fund"
    I'll check back in a few days to see if the long/old timers here have helped me out (assuming they can tell where I came in).
    BTW, Nakomis (to recall a fund mentioned in passing in the commentary this month) was a positively recommended fund here, once upon a more naive (one can only hope) time.
  • Free Market at Work: Trump orders halt to shutdown of coal and nuclear plants
    The following is excerpted from a Washington Post article and substantially edited for brevity. It is classified as a "Fund Discussion" because Ted has ruled that this is appropriate if there are funds that trade in the subject under discussion.
    President Trump on Friday invoked emergency powers granted under Cold War-era legislation to halt the shutdown of ailing coal and nuclear power plants. One likely plan, laid out in a 41-page draft memorandum would favor certain power plants owned by some of the president’s political allies in the coal industry.
    Environmental groups, natural-gas producers, and Republicans and Democrats who have pushed for greater competition in electricity markets all condemned the plan and noted that the coal and nuclear power plants that would benefit have failed to compete against natural gas, solar and wind. Many of the plants have operated far longer than anticipated when they were built.
    The subsidy would be a major victory for FirstEnergy, whose top lobbyist last year was Jeff Miller. Miller was campaign manager for the presidential campaign of Rick Perry, now energy secretary. Trump attended a private dinner with Miller and a handful of political advisers in early April.
    The White House made no further comments regarding draining of the Washington swamp.
  • John Waggoner: T. Rowe Price To Lay Off 150 In Shuttering Of Tampa Operations Center
    Well, automation drives savings in operational expenditure for an organization. If TRP can leverage their "robo advisers" to help garner assets just like they would their "human advisors", then can pass on the savings by firing the "human advisor" to the customer, and yet, collect their fees at the same level. Perhaps even more. Then they benefit themselves as well as their customers.
    So it is sad for the "human advisors". However, I'm not going to feel too sad for them because IMO this is one of the most abused/unnecessary professions. In my experience, Financial Asset Management and Information Technology (please make note I did not say Computer Science) are too professions with the highest percentage of Bullshit Artists. Their jobs will and should be the first to get "automated away". The fact that robo-advisors are so rampant right now is because asking a few questions and coming up with an asset allocation does not take rocket science, and if this is what human advisors were doing for most part, then they were not doing much.
    In other areas, Automation will HELP. Like maybe help Surgeon perform operations, maybe even enhance their abilities. However, replacing the Surgeon herself with a Robot? Now we are talking Star Trek which is a long way away. But then, in the Star Trek era, poverty has been eradicated and neither human nor robotic financial advisors exist.
    I hope those 150 who were unfortunate to not find re-assigned jobs at TRP, are able to find similar jobs elsewhere. I know how hard it is to find job when you lose it, especially when you get older. If I were to lose my job to automation, I would mind it less than if I did for other reasons. As long as automation is helping mankind and not simply making other people rich by foisting their toys on us.
  • Ben Carlson: Experience Is Overrated
    FYI: Charley Lau is widely respected in baseball circles as one of the greatest hitting coaches in the history of Major League Baseball.
    His book, The Art of Hitting .300, is regarded as one of the best instructional guides into the science behind a good swing.
    Here’s the problem — Lau never hit .300 in a single season during his years as a professional baseball player. In fact, his career batting average was just .255.
    Experience can help in certain areas but it’s often overrated in terms of separating the winners from the losers.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://awealthofcommonsense.com/2018/05/experience-is-overrated/