Hi Guys,
The data suggests that time in the markets is probably the biggest factor to end of period wealth. Increase the time period and the likelihood of a positive outcome increases from a 50/50 probability to a near 100% probability. Please see this reference for the data:
https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2015/11/playing-the-probabilities/
Of course this is only an historical data set. Things might change in the future; count on that happening. But no one knows the future, so these data are a meaningful point of departure when making investment decisions. Good luck to all.
Best Wishes

FYI: Would you be interested in an asset class that has done almost as well as equities over the long term while nevertheless incurring a lot less risk?
Of course you would.
Regards,
Ted
https://www.barrons.com/articles/the-top-performing-asset-class-youre-probably-overlooking-51556701200

https://news.yahoo.com/7-best-vanguard-funds-retirement-portfolio-173144548.html
7 Best Vanguard Funds for Your Retirement Portfolio
Ellen Chang
Ellen Chang
U.S.News & World ReportApril 30, 2019, 12:31 PM CDT
High-performing Vanguard funds for your 401(k).
Vanguard revolutionized the investing industry with index mutual funds. The company's founder and former CEO, John Bogle, was an avid fan of low expense ratios and passive investing, believing that it democratized investing for individuals, since the majority of active investment managers fail to beat market averages like the S&P 500. Passive investing along with the perception that it yields better returns is gaining in popularity among consumers, says Grant Easterbrook, co-founder of New York-based Dream Forward, which sells 401(k) plans. "Consumers looking for low-cost retirement options ask for Vanguard funds from financial advisors or buy them directly," he says. Here are seven top Vanguard funds for retirement portfolios.

@MFO Members: The more things change, the more thet stay the same !
Regards,
Ted
https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/49503/m-u-s-fund-fee-study#latest

https://www.investmentexecutive.com/news/products/u-s-fund-fees-at-record-lows/
US. fund fees at record lows
Fees fell by 6% from 2017 to 2018
By: IE Staff, Associated PressApril 30, 2019 14:33
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In the U.S., the stock market keeps rising and fees keep falling — in part, because advisors have moved to fee-based.
U.S. investors paid less to own funds last year than ever before: about $48 in expenses for every $10,000 invested, according to a study by Morningstar. It found that the asset-weighted average expense ratio of U.S. open-end mutual funds and ETFs last year was 0.48%, down from 0.51% in 2017 — a 6% drop.

@JohnN: Posted today !
https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/49503/m-u-s-fund-fee-study#latest

This just now from The Wall Street Journal:
Berkshire to Invest $10 Billion in Occidental Petroleum to Finance Anadarko Bid
Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc. agreed to inject $10 billion into Occidental Petroleum Corp.’s bid to acquire Anadarko Petroleum Corp. and fight off Chevron Corp.
Last week, Houston-based Occidental offered to purchase Anadarko for $38 billion, topping the $33 billion that Chevron agreed to pay for the company. The two sides are battling over prized energy assets in the heart of the U.S. oil boom in West Texas and New Mexico.
The backing by Berkshire gives Occidental more ammunition to fight the much-larger Chevron, and it signals that Occidental is prepared to match or exceed any Chevron counteroffer. Occidental now appears to be in a leading position to complete the acquisition, analysts said.
Anadarko representatives were unavailable Tuesday, but the company said Monday that it was considering Occidental’s offer.
See the WSJ article for additional information.

FYI: Investors paid less to own funds in 2018 than ever before. Our study of U.S. open-end mutual funds and exchange-traded funds found the asset-weighted average expense ratio was 0.48% in 2018, down from 0.51% in 2017. We estimate that investors saved roughly $5.5 billion in fund expenses last year thanks to this 6% fee decline, which is the second-largest year-over-year decline we have recorded since we began tracking the trend in asset-weighted average fees in 2000. The asset-weighted average expense ratio has fallen every year since 2000. Investors are paying roughly half as much to own funds as they were in the year 2000, when the asset-weighted average fee stood at 0.93%; they're paying 40% less than they did a decade ago and about 26% less than they did five years ago. The asset-weighted average expense ratio of passive funds was 0.15% in 2018 (versus 0.25% a decade ago) compared with 0.67% for active funds (0.86% in 2008). This means active-fund investors are paying about 4.5 times more than passive-fund investors on each dollar, the widest disparity since 2000
Regards,
Ted
https://www.morningstar.com/content/dam/marketing/shared/pdfs/Research/USFundFeeStudyApr2019.pdf?cid=EMQ_&utm_source=eloqua&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=&utm_content=17040

Okay , I'm holding a small policy amount $ 50 K to help pay taxes on IRA's , should I pass before I lower them considerably by withdrawals At this time, policy is costing about $500 a year.
Is this a good idea ?
Does anyone care to comment on this insurance link ?
Derf

FYI: As the S&P 500 finished last week at another all-time high, overbought and oversold conditions are largely unchanged from where they have been recently. Twelve of the fourteen major index ETFs are overbought while the remaining two are neutral. While off of extreme overbought levels that a few of the indices briefly touched last week, many of those that are overbought still remain just under extreme levels. With huge losses from certain weak earnings last week weighing heavy on the Dow (DIA), it was the only index to finish last week in the red and less overbought—though it is in fact still overbought.
Regards,
Ted
https://www.bespokepremium.com/interactive/posts/think-big-blog/trend-analyzer-4-29-19-small-caps-looking-solid

For Perspective:
“The Dow Jones Industrial Average's highest closing record is 26,828.39, set on October 3, 2018. It followed a record set the previous day.” https://www.thebalance.com/dow-jones-closing-history-top-highs-and-lows-since-1929-3306174. On Friday the DJI closed 26,542. That put it 287 points below where it was roughly 6 months earlier. Call it an uptick if you like. For anyone with longer than a 6 months time horizon, the market, as measured by the DJI, is still in recovery mode following the late 2018 selloff.
Massive downward spirals in markets are exceedingly rare. I’m aware of only 2 in this country during the past 90 years that reached or exceeded the 50% range (‘29-‘32 and ‘07-‘09). In addition, Japan’s Nikkei may be worth a look. In 1989 that index, in a developed market with an economy second only to the U.S. at the time, peaked at 38,916. 30 years later it rests at 22,259.
No intent by me to shape anyone’s views one way or another. My recent shift to a static allocation model with only occasional rebalancing has distanced me from the daily / seasonal market gyrations. It’s more boring, potentially less profitable, but also reduces the danger of shooting myself in the foot.

Hi johnN: Then she really has a broader asset based investment portfolio (more than a 30/70) cosnsiting of four asset classes. I'm thinking cash, bonds, real estate and stocks? My late father's asset allocation was 25% cash and cds ... 25% bonds (munis) ... 25% stocks (mostly dividend payers) ... and, 25% real estate.

hi sir @Old_Skeet ...corrections: it's her 401K in fidelity [largest equity holding is fidelity contrafund]. She has large portions of cash in boa /chase that was not account for, she also has 2 houses being rented house, my brother help manage her other assess and I dont really know the exact amount. she may indeed has large amount of cash that is not accounted for { ~?! maybe 15 or 20% cash if account all together}

https://www.i-orp.com/bequest/extended.html does the calcs for you and winds up (at least my inputs) in the same 'combination' place as kitces, and has led me to do more 50-50 (+/-) than I would've been inclined to otherwise

https://etfdailynews.com/2019/04/26/russian-stocks-have-rallied-15-in-2019-where-are-the-headed-from-here/
Russian stocks have rallied 15% in 2019, where are the headed from here?
Share This Article
April 26, 2019 1:37pm NYSE:RSX
russia flag
From Craig Mellow: A lot of things are suddenly going Russia’s way, the most important of them emanating from Washington. The Mueller Report, despite voluminous detail on Moscow’s election interference, broke no news on that score that could combat the prevailing “sanctions fatigue.” The Trump administration’s reinvigorated campaign to block Iranian export is putting one more prop under a surging oil market. In Ukraine, the more-or-less peace candidate, erstwhile comedian Volodymyr Zelensky, won the presidential election.
Anyone buying rsx?!

@Derf- Not to detract in any way from the excellent comments above, but as a bit of minor television history- in the early days of black and white tv (early 50's) there was a very large woman named Kate Smith who had a variety show of sorts... can't remember what, exactly. The unique thing though was that she always ended her show by singing a rather cloying rendition of "America the Beautiful".
Some place in there people began using "The fat lady hasn't sung" to mean that something wasn't over yet, with a joking reference to Kate Smith. By the way, since that whole image is currently politically very incorrect, you won't find that particular explanation in the Wickipedia version.

Anyone using this up tick as a reason to take some profit ?

Interesting question. But why are you calling today’s market conditions an

“uptick” ? U.S. equity markets today have barely clawed their way back to where they were 6-12 months ago. “Rebound” or “recovery” might better describe today’s market. @Derf, I share your apprehension. While I don’t have access to the Barrons story, I suspect it’s bearish in sentiment. Problem is: These warnings are becoming like a “broken record”. (For those too young to remember vinyl, “broken record” was a phenomenon characterized by the unstoppable repetition of a few notes or words - over and over again.)
Read virtually any respectable financial publication from Barrons to the MFO Monthly Commentaries over the past 8-10 years and you’ll find warnings about overvaluation, lofty levels, dangerous markets, overbought markets, over exuberance, etc.. Yet, had you heeded those warnings 3, 5 or 8 years ago and moved to ultra-safe investments like cash and limited duration bonds you’d likely have been left standing in the dust along the road as markets marched higher.
Does this make me optimistic going forward? No - not in the least. But something isn’t adding up when you compare the decade old flood of warnings about valuations alongside actual U.S. stock market performance over the same period. One possibility (but only a possibility) for those fixated on indexes is that the 10-year steady march higher since 2009 will eventually be erased by a sudden, rapid, downward spiral in valuations. Let’s hope that doesn’t happen. Should it occur, however, it might make the roughly 18 months slide from late ‘07 to early ‘09 look like a Sunday picnic.*
I don’t get paid to give investment advice here, so offer none. :) I share your concerns and I’ve done what I can to lower overall risk in how my retirement monies are invested - appropriate to age and a 10-20 year time horizon. But there are no guarantees. And, whatever plan / course one decides on, it needs to be tailored to age and circumstances. @Derf, I realize this does nothing to satisfy your concerns. But thanks for the question anyway.
*From its peak in 2007 to its low in 2009, The S&P 500 Index fell roughly 50%.
https://www.frbatlanta.org/cenfis/publications/notesfromthevault/0909

Absolutely super post Hank. One that younger investors should save as a reference.

Anyone using this up tick as a reason to take some profit ?

Interesting question. But why are you calling today’s market conditions an “uptick” ? U.S. equity markets today have barely clawed their way back to where they were 6-12 months ago. “Rebound” or “recovery” might better describe today’s market. @Derf, I share your apprehension. While I don’t have access to the Barrons story, I suspect it’s bearish in sentiment. Problem is: These warnings are becoming like a “broken record”. (For those too young to remember vinyl, “broken record” was a phenomenon characterized by the unstoppable repetition of a few notes or words - over and over again.)
Read virtually any respectable financial publication from Barrons to the MFO Monthly Commentaries over the past 8-10 years and you’ll find warnings about overvaluation, lofty levels, dangerous markets, overbought markets, over exuberance, etc.. Yet, had you heeded those warnings 3, 5 or 8 years ago and moved to ultra-safe investments like cash and limited duration bonds you’d likely have been left standing in the dust along the road as markets marched higher.
Does this make me optimistic going forward? No - not in the least. But something isn’t adding up when you compare the decade old flood of warnings about valuations alongside actual U.S. stock market performance over the same period. One possibility (but only a possibility) for those fixated on indexes is that the 10-year steady march higher since 2009 will eventually be erased by a sudden, rapid, downward spiral in valuations. Let’s hope that doesn’t happen. Should it occur, however, it might make the roughly 18 months slide from late ‘07 to early ‘09 look like a Sunday picnic.*
I don’t get paid to give investment advice here, so offer none. :) I share your concerns and I’ve done what I can to lower overall risk in how my retirement monies are invested - appropriate to age and a 10-20 year time horizon. But there are no guarantees. And, whatever plan / course one decides on, it needs to be tailored to age and circumstances. @Derf, I realize this does nothing to satisfy your concerns. But thanks for the question anyway.
*From its peak in 2007 to its low in 2009, The S&P 500 Index fell roughly 50%.
https://www.frbatlanta.org/cenfis/publications/notesfromthevault/0909

FYI: As an investor, it’s easy to blow it. You could sell too early, buy too late. Bet on a loser or pass over a winner. But often the most damaging mistake has nothing to do with the selection or timing of investments—it is carelessness when it comes to managing a portfolio for taxes. This is particularly important when you’re planning how you’ll take withdrawals for retirement income.
Regards,
Ted
https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/have-multiple-retirement-accounts-use-them-in-this-order-51553425225?mod=barrons-on-marketwatch

FYI: Even the happiest married couples sometimes fight over money. When two people share a life and a financial future, it’s only to be expected—especially when you each come into the relationship with different levels of financial literacy, risk tolerance, earning power, assumptions, and expectations. Part of the problem is that spending and saving are often deeply emotional, reflecting our values, goals, and unspoken assumptions.
In my experience working with hundreds of couples, I’ve shared the following tips to help people get on the same page as the person they love:
Regards,
Ted
https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/how-to-stop-fighting-with-your-spouse-about-money-51556370000?mod=barrons-on-marketwatch