FYI: It looks like all of the negative talk from some high profile investors in recent days has made its way into the heads of individual investors, causing them to turn increasingly bearish on equities. According to this week’s sentiment survey from AAII, bullish sentiment crashed from 45.1% down to 29.35%. That’s the largest one-week decline since April 2013! With bullish sentiment now sporting a 20-handle, it’s also safe to say that the streak of sub 50% readings that has been in place for 150 straight weeks now won’t be broken anytime soon.
Regards,
Ted
https://www.bespokepremium.com/think-big-blog/bullish-sentiment-crashes-2/

FYI: (The Linkster has always been a fan of this San Francisco treat.) (Speaking of funds to hold 10-15 years, how about DODGX and DODFX.)
Dodge & Cox sets a high bar for the asset-management industry. Its many investor-friendly attributes continue to earn the firm a Positive Parent Pillar rating.
Regards,
Ted
http://news.morningstar.com/articlenet/article.aspx?id=836682

On Tuesday November 14, the number of NYSE stocks setting new 52-week lows surged above the number of stocks setting new highs, with both figures representing more than 3% of total issues traded. This “leadership reversal” joins the deterioration in our own measures of market internals last week, as well as ongoing dispersion in market breadth and participation. As noted in the chart below, this couples a “Hindenburg” with a “Titanic,” and is actually the first time since July 2007 that we’ve seen this particular combination of internal deterioration.

https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/observations/obs171114/

@slick,
Maybe you know this, but you can actually buy TF funds at Fidelity by setting up an automatic investment (this usually has to be at least the day after you enter the trade, and can’t be a “sell a fund and use the proceeds to buy another” type transaction), once you own said fund. This drops transaction fees of “automatic investments” to $5.
Set the auto investment to occur monthly, as an example, and once the buy executes, you cancel the auto investment and you have just added to VWINX for $5 :)
Let me know if this doesn’t make sense, please.

Added to Target (TGT) on the 10% beatdown today. I guess Black Friday is coming earlier and earlier.

@Mark, I see holiday shopping forecasts are down which caused the Target drop. Pretty big 1 day drop.
I have a different approach to consumers buying habits. I've been watching FDX for a little while hoping it's price comes down some. My thought and what I've read is this is a play on internet shopping, pretty much riding the Amazon trend without investing in the high valuations Amazon has now. FedEx also dropped today (2.5%) with the holiday shopping forecast but not as much as TGT. FDX has to drop another 9% for my limit order to kick in.

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/890540/000113542817001052/frost-497.txt
TYPE>497
1
frost-497.txt
THE ADVISORS' INNER CIRCLE FUND II (THE "TRUST")
FROST CONSERVATIVE ALLOCATION FUND
FROST MODERATE ALLOCATION FUND
FROST AGGRESSIVE ALLOCATION FUND (THE "FUNDS")
SUPPLEMENT DATED NOVEMBER 15, 2017 TO THE
INSTITUTIONAL CLASS SHARES PROSPECTUS AND THE INVESTOR CLASS SHARES PROSPECTUS,
EACH DATED NOVEMBER 28, 2016, AS SUPPLEMENTED NOVEMBER 29, 2016, FEBRUARY 6,
2017, MARCH 8, 2017, JUNE 7, 2017 AND AUGUST 31, 2017 (THE "PROSPECTUSES") AND
THE STATEMENT OF ADDITIONAL INFORMATION, DATED NOVEMBER 28, 2016, AS
SUPPLEMENTED NOVEMBER 29, 2016, FEBRUARY 6, 2017, MARCH 8, 2017, JUNE 7, 2017
AND AUGUST 31, 2017 (THE "SAI")
THIS SUPPLEMENT PROVIDES NEW AND ADDITIONAL INFORMATION BEYOND THAT CONTAINED
IN THE PROSPECTUSES AND SAI, AND SHOULD BE READ IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
PROSPECTUSES AND SAI.
The Board of Trustees of the Trust, at the recommendation of Frost Investment
Advisors, LLC (the "Adviser"), the investment adviser of the Funds, has approved
a plan of liquidation providing for the liquidation of each Fund's assets and
the distribution of the net proceeds pro rata to the Fund's shareholders. In
connection therewith, the Funds are closed to new investments. The Funds are
expected to cease operations and liquidate on or about December 22, 2017 (the
"Liquidation Date").
Prior to the Liquidation Date, shareholders may redeem (sell) their shares in
the manner described in the "How to Redeem Fund Shares" section of each
Prospectus. For those Fund shareholders that do not redeem (sell) their shares
prior to the Liquidation Date, the Funds will distribute to each such
shareholder, on or promptly after the Liquidation Date, a liquidating cash
distribution equal in value to the shareholder's interest in the net assets of
the Funds as of the Liquidation Date.
In anticipation of the liquidation of the Funds, the Adviser may manage each
Fund in a manner intended to facilitate its orderly liquidation, such as by
holding cash or making investments in other highly liquid assets. As a result,
during this time, all or a portion of each Fund may not be invested in a manner
consistent with its stated investment strategies, which may prevent the Fund
from achieving its investment objective.
The liquidation distribution amounts will include any accrued income and
capital gains, will be treated as a payment in exchange for shares and will
generally be a taxable event. You should consult your personal tax advisor
concerning your particular tax situation. Shareholders remaining in a Fund on
the Liquidation Date will not be charged any transaction fees by the Fund.
However, the net asset value of each Fund on the Liquidation Date will reflect
costs of liquidating the Fund.
PLEASE RETAIN THIS SUPPLEMENT FOR FUTURE REFERENCE.
FIA-SK-045-0100

Regarding VGWIX, VGWAX, etc., my global allocation fund of choice is SGENX, available load-waived at Schwab. If bonds are needed, may be supplement with PONDX. I have owned SGENX for a very long time. My other long-term holds (>10 years, some >15 years) are OAKBX, FPACX, MACSX.

Hi all,
It is for sure some will have greater success at positioning than others. I have found it best for me to allocate even within the growth area of my portfolio where no sleeve is less than 20% nor greater than 30%. In this way, I don't put too much, or to less, into a sleeve. Thus far it has worked well. Last year my small/mid cap sleeve lead. This year it trails with the other three sleeves (large mid cap, global growth and specialty/theme) being the producers. And, even the small/mid cap sleeve has produced year-to-date (at just short of 7%); but, just not as much as the others.
We each have our style of investing. For me, I am for the most part an asset allocator who plays around the edges and moves some money from time-to-time based upon my read into what I perceive will be the faster moving currents within the market.
But, to do this I have to continue to be a good student following the markets as they are forever changing. And, that is why I maintain both a domestic and global market compass as well as my market barometer that follows and scores certain aspects the S&P 500 Index and scales it into a barometer reading.
Many years ago I enjoyed some weekend visits to the dog track betting the dogs. One of my strategies was to bet three dogs to win, place or show as it produced more winning proceeds for me over betting one dog to win. So, I modified this betting strategy and incorporated it into my investment portfolio.
For me, it has worked well. Both, at the track and within my portfolio.
I wish all ... "Good Investing."
Old_Skeet

We thought we’d start continue up with the 130 U.S. equity funds which have passed their second anniversary but have not yet reached their third, which is when conventional trackers such as Morningstar and Lipper pick them up. As Charles has repeatedly demonstrated, the screener at MFO Premium allows you to answer odd and interesting questions. When markets are rising, everybody’s question is the same: who’s making the most?
There are two ways to answer that. One way is to look at total returns. As of Halloween (our data is current as of the end of last month), the clear winner is the $8 million Zevenbergen Genea (ZVGIX) fund, a focused fund with an emphasis on tech. (What’s a “genea”? Old Greek word related to “genealogy,” it sometimes signals “a generation,” which aligns with the fund’s emphasis on have a long-term view.)
Zevenbergen Genea Fund ZVGIX
Multi-Cap Growth
23.6% annualized return since inception through October 2017
ProShares S&P 500 Ex-Health Care ETF SPXV
Large-Cap Core
18.1%
Leland Thomson Reuters Private Equity Index Fund LDPIX
Specialty Diversified Equity
17.9%
ProShares S&P 500 Ex-Energy ETF SPXE
Large-Cap Core
17.8%
Alambic Small Cap Value Plus Fund ALAMX
Small-Cap Value
17.8%
Sometimes a fund is good not because the fund is good, but because its investment style or focus is hot. For example, a hot energy market makes even bad energy fund managers look like geniuses. You’ll notice that two of the six top performers are distinguished for what they did not invest in: “ex Health Care” and “ex Energy” tells you that these funds are winning just because the excluded sectors are, for now, losing.
To control for that, we can look for funds that are distinctive better than their peers. Seven funds are beating their peers by more than 5% per year so far, with 50% of those being passive.
Leland Thomson Reuters Private Equity Index Fund LDPIX
Specialty Diversified Equity
17.9% APR since inception
13% annual lead over their (in this case, irrelevant) peer group
Zevenbergen Genea Fund ZVGIX
Multi-Cap Growth
23.6% APR
10.7% annual lead of their peers
ProShares Russell 2000 Dividend Growers ETF SMDV
Small-Cap Core
15.5% APR
7.2% lead
HCM Dividend Sector Plus Fund HCMZX
Equity Income
14.9% APR
7% lead
ProShares S&P MidCap 400 Dividend Aristocrats ETF REGL
Mid-Cap Core
13% APR
6.1% lead
VictoryShares US Small Cap High Div Volatility Wtd Index ETF CSB
Small-Cap Growth
13.8% APR
5.8% lead
Invesco PowerShares S&P 500 ex-Rate Sensitive Low Volatility Portfolio XRLV
Multi-Cap Core
13.4% APR
5.2% lead
Only two of the six funds with the highest total returns are also substantially leading their peers. Half of the peer beaters consciously factor dividends, which sometimes signals the quality of a firm’s management, into their strategies.
Bottom line: it’s not important to know that a fund is winning. It’s important to know why a fund is winning. That’s hard to suss out, but relative performance and some idea of portfolio biases gives you a place to start.
Off to Dallas for a professional conference. Pray for me!
David

@Crash
Here is a response from TRP that was recently posted to the M* forum site:
"This being Nov 7, I checked on the status of this fund with TRP today. I was informed that the inception date has been postponed to "the middle of next year". Vague explanation, no additional information available. :-( "
See:
http://socialize.morningstar.com/NewSocialize/forums/p/377522/3871721.aspx#PageIndex=2
I had planned to put some available $'s into TCAPX instead of adding to my existing investment in VWINX.....but may rethink that plan....

this is 2.5y old but a lot of it still applies, seems to me
https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2015/02/27/investing-do-you-want-to-send-your-money-abroad/24077415/

BCSVX is new, but it is strong out of the gate. 65% developed and developing Europe. The current portfolio has sizable dollops of large caps and mid caps, despite its stated small cap orientation. I am surprised that Brown Capital has done as well as it has with this fund because its other international offering is run-of-the-mill. From what I could glean from their website, no new manager(s) were hired to run this fund. I own some.

Most market crashes have a trigger and in a lot of cases that's unexpected. The economy both in the US and globally is doing reasonably well and appears to be picking up. Even the skeptics accept that a recession isn't very likely at the moment. I would tend to view what's been happening so far in November as consolidation rather than worry but that's just my humble opinion.
@MJG, I think it reinforces your point but if someone gets 5 out of the 8 forecasts you mentioned correct they're brilliant. A lot more of the guys who are able to get 5 right are lucky but in the same vein they look, and probably claim they're really smart.

Three words: don't do it.
When I read the opening paragraph of the NYTimes article, my thoughts immediately jumped to the question: is this a prohibited transaction? That would void the IRA, making it immediately taxable (and subject to penalties if you're under 59.5). "When the I.R.S. spots a violation, it shows little mercy." Not a risk to assume lightly.
A music teacher is running an instrument leasing business (inside the IRA) to his students. That might be considered a prohibited transaction because the teacher (a "disqualified person") appears to be providing a referral service (referring his students) to his IRA's business. I really don't understand the rules well enough to say. A disqualified person, such as the IRA owner, must not furnish goods or services to the IRA.
A key virtue of traditional IRAs (e.g. provided by brokerages) is that they ensure you are not coming close to prohibited transactions. Maybe if you're a Mitt Romney building a $100M IRA a self-directed IRA would make sense, but then you'd also have a slew of lawyers backing you up and watching out for you.
It gets even worse. Do a search on "checkbook control IRA". I'll let the pages you find explain that one.
Here's a page I just dug up explaining prohibited transactions and containing lots of links to very technical writeups of ambiguities in the law, what could go wrong, etc.
https://www.questira.com/ira-prohibited-transactions-every-investor-needs-to-know/
To its credit, this is a page being provided by one of the companies that you can use to set up a self-directed IRA.

I'm a fan of QUSOX but its only 50/50 Europe/Asia. I'm also a fan of OBIOX, which is 57% Europe but its hard closed.
Wouldn't you generally think that most big European companies are global in nature and would not only reflect their global prospects rather than just Europe but would also be pretty highly correlated with US based big multinationals except for currency? It seems like if you really want to "bet" on Europe you have to go smaller but if you want to bet on the Euro then go big.

I think we’re setting up for something like a repeat of ‘87. Market action past few days looks shaky. Anytime a lot of folks start thinking it’s easy pulling 15-20% a year you’re looking for trouble - especially at a time of 1-2% on CDs. Might make it into January. Doubt it.
Market crashes and corrections do have a lot to do with luck. Like the old game of musical chairs.
For the record: Current DJ 23,400, S&P 2578, NAS 6728, 10-Year 2.38%

.....And the wonderful young agent was, typically, tripping over himself with multi-syllabic utterances so that he would sound intelligent and informative, grasping at different words in order not to be repetitive, and so that there would not be any "dead air" between us. Jay-zuz, I hate that. I suppose they are TRAINED never to use the word "no," even when "no" is the appropriate, true and correct reply. And if they dare to simply communicate within a common sense framework, they'd earn demerits. I guess the trainer-types have all forgotten the 13th Commandment: ESCHEW OBFUSCATION.
..... That 5 minute conversation should have taken maybe 90 seconds. At least, amid all the pap flapping around me from his end, I was informed that there is no way to figure out or plan for just when that fund may open for business, and no way to let me--- and interested folks like me--- know when it happens.
Interesting summary prospectus, though. Already posted here, and I bookmarked it. Monthly pay-outs. Stock-bond split that is divided more evenly than the PRWCX which we all already know and love. I'm interested because I'm looking to grow my dividends these days, preparing to start taking divs. rather than re-investing them. And TCAPX can hold foreign securities, too, though not in amounts that would make it function like my current holdings, PRSNX or PREMX. Yes, I'm ALMOST married to TRP. I have a good slug in Mairs & Power, too, and then just a couple of very small other holdings. Here's that link, again:
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1689311/000168931117000021/canpta-may35.htm

Hi Guys,
I too suspect that most investors do not fully understand the tradeoff that exists between skill and luck when making investment decisions. Luck is a far more significant contributor then is commonly appreciated.
We are fooled by randomness (that's the title of an excellent book authored by Nassim Nicholas Taleb). The likely reason why we are fooled is that we don't recognize how large numbers of participants contribute to a respectable number of winners.
For example, if 1000 market forecasters exist, after a single forecast 500 are probably correct given an equal interpretation of the likely market outcome. For the successful forecasters, repeat this test again, and the successful number is reduced to perhaps 250. If the challenge is repeated 8 times, a simple probability calculation suggests that maybe 4 forecasters would be correct on all the 8 tests. These fortunate four might be skillful, but they just might be lucky..
These lucky few announce their prescient calls and are now respected as market forecasting wizards. The large number of initial forecasting candidates almost guarantees this outcome and the subsequent misleading interpretation. Indeed, we are often victims; we are fooled by randomness.
Best Wishes

Hi @hank
Bondland: Short duration yields/rates are higher, but.....
http://www.reuters.com/article/usa-bonds/treasuries-u-s-2-year-note-yield-hits-another-9-year-high-flattening-continues-idUSL1N1NK0ZW
Pension funds:
1. Actuaries didn't anticipate the longevity of the "boomers".
2. Perhaps many pension funds never really achieved their goal of 8-8.5% real return adjusted for inflation.
3. At least relative to employee union pension funds; many had/have "cost of living" adjustments built into forward pension payments; including pension benefits that continue to have a "health plan", too.
4. Under-funding of pension plans, over the years. This is a known condition for many pension funds.
I recall over the past several years reading about existing pension funds in Michigan municipalities, though still having contributions to the fund; finding that paying the retired employee pension/health care outflows was consuming 50% of the assets of the fund.
Example: Central States Pension Fund (Teamsters); of which, I read about several years ago. A story of, we may be able to maintain the monetary base of the fund; but ya'll will have to take a 30% decrease in your pension or the fund will crash and burn. Check some of the links in the search below, in particular to "UPS" drivers who were moved into the Central States Pension Plan. The link below is for numerous search items.....read for your choosing.
https://www.google.com/search?source=hp&ei=EBoLWrGHNJuzjwSX9LzgDw&q=central+states+pension+fund+news&oq=central+states+pension+fund&gs_l=psy-ab.1.1.0l10.1146.11288.0.13276.27.27.0.0.0.0.314.3286.1j25j0j1.27.0....0...1.1.64.psy-ab..0.27.3280...46j0i131k1j0i46k1j0i10k1.0.clw8X-GyJ9Q
Side note: Although great to have a pension, the majority of pensions do not have a "cost of living" adjustment. If inflation was running at the "old" annual rate of 3%, or so; after 10 years folks would be loosing about 1/3 of their spending power from a pension, yes? I spoke with a few folks I know a number of years ago about this as a future planning tool relative to their spending habits going forward.
Well, this is my small take on such a big world.
The snowblower is lubricated, gas full and tested. Now waiting for April again in Michigan.
Take care,
Catch

Anyone getting giddy on European Funds?
Europe Heading Toward Golden Period:
from-lost-decade-to-golden-years-euro-economy-picks-up-the-pace
To me, a good managed fund navigates these dynamics better than a broad index. Many here are familiar with risk averse FMIJX.
Using a "European only" fund screen shows:
DFA's (DFCSX),
Brown Advisory's (BAHAX) and
Columbia's (CAEZX) all having higher risk adjusted returns (high Sharpe Ratios).
From a fee expense angle the nod goes to (VEURX), but it is an index approach.
PIMCO's USDollar unhedged (PPUDX) has 97% exposure to Developed EU and uses PIMCO's derivative strategies in an attempt to outperform the index. The USDollar hedged version is PPIDX.
T. Rowe Price's (PRIDX) has International Small/Mid Cap exposure splitting itself between Europe/UK (48%) and Japan / Em Asia (45%).
Fidelity's (FSCOX) has a similar approach with a strong convictions towards Japan (33%), Europe (32%) and the UK (19%).
Under performers with high exposure to Europe include:
AAIPX - 4*, (68%/24%) Greater EU / Greater Asia
TRIGX - 3*, (64/32) Greater EU / Greater Asia
LISOX - 3*, (56/30) Greater EU / Greater Asia
BBHLX - 3*, (65/19) Greater EU / Greater Asia, (17%) cash
THGIX - 2*, (62/24) Greater EU / Greater Asia
USIFX - 4*, (62/33) Greater EU / Greater Asia
CIVVX - 4* (65/27) Greater EU / Greater Asia
MQIFX - 4*, (58/37) US/Greater EU
USAWX - 5* (58/39) US/Greater EU
IVFLX - 1* (28/65) US/Greater EU
An interesting World Allocation fund, BBALX, which is divided pretty evenly into thirds-US Equity, Non US equities, and US Bonds- but over weights Non US equities (50/50 Greater EU/Asia) compared to the category.