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This article sheds some light on the topic and one fund (VWINX) succeeded at providing a 4% withdrawal and capital appreciation.More thoughts...If you had no income and had no assets and inherited $1M today tax free..... would you invest it all in the market today at a 4% withdrawal rate (many people are 4-5.5%)?
Here's a much more extensive article on his macro views (Oct 19, 2017):The Loomis Sayles Bond Fund has reduced its risk exposure to the lowest since its inception in 1991
and,“I do know from my 59 years of experience, when the ice was very thin, it’s always good to be very cautious,” he said. “You can skate around the edges but you can’t go out to the middle.”
Maybe investor confirmation bias, but I sold my "middle of the pond" position in AGDYX about a month ago. His concerns about a lack of buyer of bonds and a higher risk of inflation paired with do nothing politicians is what you pay a bond manager to worry about. Bond index funds provide none of this risk management.“I‘m not trying to be an ‘end of the world person’ here, but it is a possibility,” he said. “It used to be one percent, now it’s a 15 or 20 percent possibility. Would you get on an airplane if there was a 15 percent risk? And that’s a good way to ask a person about risk,” he said.
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