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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Morningstar Digest July 17 top story is about politics and the markets,,,, Is that OK to talk about
    I'll provide this for now; as we have a 9 yo nephew bday party that can not be missed.
    A new French mural. There is an arrow on the right edge to step through the images. OR select the red arrow at the left bottom for audio/video and wait for a short AD to play.
  • Thousands of Californians lost work after LA immigration raids. Citizens did, too

    pbs (july 2025) interviewed an idaho farmer pleading to exempt his undocumented workers as raids affecting his farm economics. claimed these workers as "friends" he and his children had attended school with, but had no comment on the absolute brutality and illegal herding of workers nationwide.
    remained unrepentant trump supporter (he actually bought into the farm\hotel pause trump promised) , but wished democrats could 'meet in the middle' to solve this issue.
    cant fix stupid.
  • AAII Sentiment Survey, 7/16/25
    AAII Sentiment Survey, 7/16/25
    BULLISH remained the top sentiment (39.3%, above average) & neutral remained the bottom sentiment (21.8%, very low*); bearish remained the middle sentiment (39.0%, above average); Bull-Bear Spread was +0.3% (below average). Investor concerns: Tariffs, budget, jobs, inflation, recession, Fed, debt, dollar, geopolitical, Russia-Ukraine (177+ weeks), Israel-Hamas (67+16 weeks). For the Survey week (Th-Wed), stocks mixed, bonds down, oil down, gold up, dollar up. NYSE %Above 50-dMA 68.75% (positive). CPI +2.7%, core +2.9%; PPI +2.3%, core +2.6%. Crypto Week bills are moving in Congress. #AAII #Sentiment #Markets
    Sentiments are CONTRARIAN indicators.
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/2094/thread
  • Westinghouse Nukes
    Wow. Crazy. Can count about a half-dozen harrowing experiences in my long life that could / should have ended it. Escaped thus far. Was not aware of the shock hazard. Did a lot of foolish stuff with electricity as a kid but never tried replacing a tube. I do have a large bug zapper that even unplugged for several minutes retains quite a charge as I’ve learned the hard way. Suspect vacuum tubes may also be that way.
    OMG - They make bug zappers too! See Ad
  • Stocks Drop on Report Powell Likely to Be Fired - WSJ
    Can’t believe Malpass is under serious consideration. Struck me as a lightweight intellectually when he headed the World Bank. Candidates
    Yes - if one were to assume logic in this matter it might well be a diversionary tactic.
  • Westinghouse Nukes
    ...and could shock the bejeezus out of you when working on those things. Anywhere from 150 to 400 or more volts plate voltage. I was SO happy when solid state came in.
  • Westinghouse Nukes
    On a recent trip to China, I observed from a couple of high-speed trains (the equal of Europe's) many convex cooling towers of nuclear reactors just about everywhere. I do fear that were there an adverse event that the Chinese authorities would not be forthcoming regarding the severity of the problem. Chernobyl is a text-book case in how an authoritarian system can compound (murderously) the effects of a disaster, simply by acting authoritarian and closed-mouthed. See Adam Higginbotham, Midnight at Chernobyl (2019).
    Westinghouse also manufactured some of the first refrigerators. My great uncle possessed one of the very first models (maybe from 1925) and the company recognized his fridge as one of the longest living. It was still functioning in the mid-1950's, a box on legs with its cylindrical cooling coils mounted on top of the whole shebang. It was so ugly that it had to be put out of sight in a pantry. Not that the radio @hank found would have won any beauty contest.
  • Westinghouse Nukes
    Indeed ! This is a snippet of information regarding the KW-26 model of crypto equipment I serviced based on 'tubes', I also worked on 'newer and other' transistor based models. You may choose to take a quick peek of a KW-26 document with a lot of operational data, but a quick scroll will provide a lot of interesting pics, too.
    --- The switch selectable meters on the front panel had multiple uses. You could use them to look at the input or output signal to the lines or the teletype or the power supply voltages (- 230, -250, and -270 volts). My recollection is that the voltages each had a switch setting and were read on the meter as a percentage of the nominal voltage.
    Each crypto technician carried a "7-level" screwdriver in his front pocket to make power supply adjustments. The right way to do it was to use a multimeter, but the quick way was to use the panel meter. The seven level was also used to adjust the oscillator - but this was at your own risk. The adjustment was inside the oscillator chassis and the adjusting screw was live with about 250 volts on it. To prevent shorting, the adjustment hole in the chassis was lined with a grommet. If you touched the shaft of the screwdriver you got a real wake up. Although the prescribed tool was a tuning wand, I'm guessing that many more adjustments were made with a 7-level screwdriver than were made with the wand. (My 7-level had a length of heat shrink tubing covering most of the shaft.) ---
  • Westinghouse Nukes
    @Catch22- Yes, but actually I began my "All-American" 5-tube adventures with the previous 8-pin lineup:
    Converter: 12SA7
    IF amplifier: 12SK7
    Detector and first audio amplifier: 12SQ7
    Audio power output: 50L6
    Rectifier: 35Z5
    Working on those things was surely an invitation to a shocking experience.
  • Westinghouse Nukes
    One source
    Excerpts: “According to the Power Reactor Information System (PRIS) of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), there are (in 1924) 413 nuclear reactors in operation worldwide with an average age of around 32 years.”
    ”Nuclear energy accounts for the largest percentage of the global electricity mix in France. In 2022 it was 63%. With 56 reactors, France is also the European leader in this respect. However, the last reactor was connected to the grid in 1999 and the average age is 38.6 years. “
    -
    ”Someone explain, please? How playing with nukes for power is a different sort of playing with nukes for weapons? Still gotta be radioactive waste produced, eh?”
    We’ve had several that operated in Michigan dating back to the late 50s. Most have been dismantled. Like everything technological, they have a limited life-span. In simplest terms, fission reactions (the splitting of atoms) in a controlled environment create heat which is then converted into electricity. The early ones were “boiling water” types with the steam produced powering large turbine generators. I suspect they’ve advanced beyond that simple concept today.
    You are correct that waste is created. It can be safely handled and stored, but remains “hot” (highly radioactive) for thousands of years. There has been fierce debate over how to safely dispose of the waste. Deep inside mountains has been proposed. I’m not up to speed on whether this at has been resolved. For now, I believe waste is pretty much stored on-site and shielded somehow. But it’s not a long term solution.
    Accidents are rare. Loss of cooling water is the biggest threat. So these plants are typically located near bodies of water and backup electrical energy is crucial to power the coolant pumps in the event the primary sources fail. The reactors themselves are very small - perhaps smaller than a typical room in a home. Most of what one sees in photos is the supporting equipment, surrounding containment vessels, heat dispersion / cooling apparatus. While accidents are rare they are monstrous when they occur with deadly long lasting contaminants being spread over hundreds or thousands of miles - rendering farmland, water sources, homes, unusable virtually forever and causing illness or death to those contaminated. It’s this last “nightmare” possibility (and some actual catastrophic events) that has made nuclear power generation so controversial and has slowed the development of new plants. Planning must take into consideration potential threats like floods, earthquakes, hurricanes, acts of war and terrorism.
    Key differences from weapons are (1) In generating electrical power, the nuclear fission process is controlled. It can be shut-down if necessary by the plant operators, assuming everything is working correctly, (2) The radiation produced is contained within a structure and not dispersed intentionally into the environment, (3) Rather then blowing something up, the power released is converted into useful electricity..
    See also Nuclear Powered Ships
  • Westinghouse Nukes
    The vacuum tube lineup:
    Converter: 12BE6
    IF amplifier: 12BA6
    Detector and first audio amplifier: 12AV6 or 12AT6
    Audio power output: 50C5 or the less-common 50B5
    Rectifier: 35W4
  • Westinghouse Nukes
    They made a pretty good radio back in the 60s. But I don’t know about their nukes.
    image
  • Thousands of Californians lost work after LA immigration raids. Citizens did, too
    Following are excerpts from a report by CalMatters, an independent California news organization.
    California saw a 3.1% drop in private-sector employment the week immediately after the Trump administration stepped up its immigration raids in the state, according to a new analysis of U.S. Census data. UC Merced researchers said the steep drop is second only to the unemployment surge the state experienced during the onset of the coronavirus pandemic in 2020, and greater than the immediate decline during the Great Recession in 2007 and 2008.
    This appears to be the first analysis of the data from the Census Bureau’s Current Population Survey from the time when federal agents’ focus on the state became clear in early June, when a raid at a garment factory in downtown Los Angeles preceded weeks of sweeps and unrest.
    The Census Bureau surveys Americans every month about whether they worked the week before. The UC Merced researchers compared survey results from the week of May 11 to the week of June 8, and found that in California, more citizens than non-citizens reported that they did not work the week after that first raid.
    The percentage decline would equate to a loss in California of 271,541 jobs from citizens and 193,428 non-citizens, the report said: “What we know from previous research is that the work that undocumented immigrants or non-citizens do does not exist in a vacuum,” Edward Flores, lead author of the report, told CalMatters. “If there’s disruptions to the work that undocumented immigrants do, it has ripple effects. A slowdown in one industry could cause slowdowns in other industries.”
    That’s consistent with other studies that have shown that mass deportations of undocumented workers reduces job opportunities for U.S.-born workers, and studies that have shown the raids’ negative effects on local economies.
    The effects of the enforcement may continue to be felt more strongly in California. The report also showed that the number of male citizen workers slightly increased in the rest of the U.S. compared with California during the same periods.
    White and Latino workers in California were the most affected, the researchers found. The number of Latinos in California who reported work between May and June declined 5.6%, while the number of whites in the state who reported work during the same period decreased 5.3%, according to the report.
  • Stocks Drop on Report Powell Likely to Be Fired - WSJ
    For whoever follows Powell, hopefully after 05/2026 for the sake of markets, impossible expectations are being setup for -3% immediate rate cut. My concern is that someone may take the job with -3% cut promise that may be impossible to deliver through the FOMC.
    Agreed. Whoever follows Powell is going to be in for a thankless task, massive cleanup (if possible!), and an otherwise generally painful term. I sure wouldn't want the job!
  • Stocks Drop on Report Powell Likely to Be Fired - WSJ
    For whoever follows Powell, hopefully after 05/2026 for the sake of markets, impossible expectations are being setup for -3% immediate rate cut. My concern is that someone may take the job with -3% cut promise that may be impossible to deliver through the FOMC.
  • Stocks Drop on Report Powell Likely to Be Fired - WSJ
    F** Taco did it again. He reversed and probably lied after saw results of market sentiments about did not have any thoughts of firing J.Pow.
    Their team probably look for new candidates in 6 7 months anyways. Powell prob did well past 10 yrs imho, probably a B graded. Our inflations are jacked up and probably massive defaults when nobody want to buy US-T in 12 24 months and rates are cut at record paced next 12 24 months. 1970s double bottom crash scenarios likely. have your cash parked [35% cash for me now]. I dont trust this market at all especially cryptos and stocks are extremely High P/E [SPY TECHS QQQ MAG7] . not sure if need to dca into more cryptos, so high now seem everyone want to sell stocks and add crypto/BTC
  • Dollar Concerns
    This story has been told several times already.
    05/2007 (https://bendbulletin.com/2007/05/21/analysts-gain-wont-change-dollars-decline/)
    10/2013 (https://www.cnbc.com/2013/10/22/de-crowning-the-dollar-and-the-collapse-ahead.html)
    07/2020 (https://www.ft.com/content/712fe3e7-6bfd-46be-9fbc-6b992aa0d043)
    The 24/7 media loves it. Bad (possible) news sells great. You click and read, and they make money.
    =============
    catch22:
    suicide...ignorance...'cult'
    Another day and another political post.
    How can it be that everything that was done since 01/2025 is the above, while the previous administration's actions were all right and great?
    If you think the outcome is pretty bad, follow it and invest it all in MM.
  • Stocks Drop on Report Powell Likely to Be Fired - WSJ
    Thanks guys, so far, for your restraint and insightful remarks. Unusual for the WSJ to post a story without better verification. They were, of course, citing less reliable and left-leaning Bloomberg. I would not have posted this if I’d thought it wasn’t a done deal.
    Who leaked this? Allegedly Trump waved a draft of the “firing” letter in front of a bunch of Republican Senators last evening.
    Wow. Like many of you I worked in a visible public sector occupation. Local / internal politics can be brutal. But I don’t know how Powell is coping. I’m not aware of any administrator ever waving around a draft of a letter calling for my dismissal - though it might well have occurred. :)
    There’s a very good related thread on the issue in the OT section posted by @Observant1
  • Stocks Drop on Report Powell Likely to Be Fired - WSJ
    “The major indexes were off as much as 0.4% following a report in Bloomberg that cited an unnamed White House official. CBS News reported that Trump asked Republican lawmakers if he should fire Powell.”
    The WSJ
    If this signals a less restrictive monetary policy it would have repercussions for investments - not all bad. Money market yields would likely fall. Mortgages might be cheaper for a while if less restrictive policy is coupled with some kind of yield curve control. But farther out real assets should gain as inflation rises. The dollar would likely weaken. Lots of moving parts to sort out should the President end up with substantial authority to set / manipulate short-term interest rates now and down the road.
    To state the obvious: If the report is true such a move would be contested in the courts.
  • Dollar Concerns

    This article aligns w/what I've been saying for a few months now -- that over the next several years, we'll see global trade/fiance starting to work with, versus being dependent on, the United States and the US Dollar. It's also partly why I've been skewing several of my new equity purchases overseas.
    https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2025/jul/16/trust-in-the-us-is-eroding-the-question-isnt-if-the-dollar-will-lose-supremacy-its-when