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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Janet Yellen supposedly Biden's pick for Treasury Secretary
    Not to get in between a good cat fight, but neither of you have mentioned the use of "credits" or economic incentives. My apologies if you have.
    The EPA mentions this:
    Policy-makers have two broad types of instruments available for changing consumption and production habits in society. They can use traditional regulatory approaches (sometimes referred to as command-and-control approaches) that set specific standards across polluters, or they can use economic incentive or market-based policies that rely on market forces to correct for producer and consumer behavior. Incentives are extensively discussed in several EPA reports:
    Tesla has a page dedicated to economic Electric and Solar incentives (none of which addresses the negative impact lithium mining has on the environment):
    https://tesla.com/support/incentives
    Much of Tesla financial success has been based on credits. Here's a quote from @msf in a different thread,
    "Tesla made more than $1 billion from ... regulatory credits over the past four quarters. ... That is more than double its profits over the past four quarters." So Tesla's profitability at this point is due to its cars being "clean" rather than their selling at a profit.
    I believe technology eventually helps solve natural and man made problems. Tesla may be on the right track.
    The Union of Concerned Scientists did the best and most rigorous assessment of the carbon footprint of Tesla's and other electric vehicles vs internal combustion vehicles including hybrids. They found that the manufacturing of a full-sized Tesla Model S rear-wheel drive car with an 85 KWH battery was equivalent to a full-sized internal combustion car except for the battery, which added 15% or one metric ton of CO2 emissions to the total manufacturing.
    However, they found that this was trivial compared to the emissions avoided due to not burning fossil fuels to move the car. Before anyone says "But electricity is generated from coal!", they took that into account too, and it's included in the 53% overall reduction.
    the-carbon-footprint-of-tesla-manufacturing
    Here's a Opinion piece with regard to global carbon incentives:
    “This is an example of hope,” he said, as we stood behind his office at the Federal University of Acre, a tropical campus carved into the Amazon rain forest. Brown placed his hand on a spindly trunk, ordering me to follow his lead. “There is a flow of water going up that stem, and there is a flow of sap coming down, and when it comes down it has carbon compounds,” he said. “Do you feel that?”
    I couldn’t feel a thing. But that invisible process holds the key to a massive flow of cash into Brazil and an equally pivotal opportunity for countries trying to head off climate change without throwing their economies into turmoil. If the carbon in these trees could be quantified, then Acre could sell credits to polluters emitting clouds of CO₂. Whatever they release theoretically would be offset, or canceled out, by the rain forest.
    Five thousand miles away in California, politicians, scientists, oil tycoons and tree huggers are bursting with excitement over the idea. The state is the second-largest carbon polluter in America, and its oil and gas industry emits about 50 million metric tons of CO₂ a year. What if Chevron or Shell or Phillips 66 could offset some of their damage by paying Brazil not to cut down trees?
    inconvenient-truth-carbon-credits-dont-work-deforestation-redd-acre-cambodia
    Lastly, we all need to come to common ground to find solutions. Something many of our politicians and media outlets choose not to promote.
  • S&P 500 and it's new Addition -Tesla
    Since Tesla's addition to the S&P 500 has no direct effect on its market cap (though an indirect effect by requiring S&P 500 funds to buy it), this should have little impact on its inclusion or exclusion in market-cap based indexes. For example, you won't find Tesla in VO, that tracks the CRSP mid cap index.
    In contrast, VXF, FSMAX, etc. are based on some "completion index" defined as "everything" that the S&P 500 is not. So they are affected. But some extended market indexes defined differently are not affected.
    They may be market-cap based, e.g. FZIPX is based on a "completion index" that excludes the 500 largest companies, not the 500 selected for the S&P 500. Pure market cap standard. Or they may be based on an index where Tesla isn't even part of the investable universe (see below), such as the S&P 1000. (FWIW, OMECX is an enhanced index fund based on the S&P 1000.)
    Tesla is different from a company growing out of one market cap range and into another. Tesla is not being moved from the S&P 400 to the S&P 500. Rather, S&P is only now qualifying it for inclusion in any of its S&P 1500-based indexes (i.e. 1500, 500, 1000, 400, 600). Then based on market cap, Tesla is falling into the 500 index.
    At a minimum, to be considered for inclusion in the S&P 1500, "The sum of the most recent four consecutive quarters’ Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP) earnings (net income excluding discontinued operations) should be positive as should the most recent quarter."
    S&P U.S. Indices Methodology
    AFAIK, S&P is the only major index provider that has this requirement. It's why the 600 index tends to be a bit conservative relative to its peers like the R2K. Something else distinctive about the S&P methodology is that it is not strictly rule-based; a human committee applies its own judgment to the rules.
    "Tesla made more than $1 billion from ... regulatory credits over the past four quarters. ... That is more than double its profits over the past four quarters." So Tesla's profitability at this point is due to its cars being "clean" rather than their selling at a profit. The committee has the ability to go beyond the numbers and look at the source of a company's profits. Do they meet the spirit as well as the letter of the rule?
    WSJ, Why Tesla Was Left Out of the S&P 500 (in September)
  • S&P 500 and it's new Addition -Tesla
    Top 3 Mutual Fund Holders of Tesla (TSLA)
    4-mutual-funds-hold-tesla-stock
    S&P 500 Forecast: How Will the Addition of Tesla Impact the Index?
    SP-500-Forecast-How-Will-the-Addition-of-Tesla-Impact-the-Index
    @MikeM2,
    ETFs prepare for balancing act as Elon Musk’s Tesla joins S&P 500:
    S&P still hasn’t announced what stock Tesla will be replacing, saying it will release that decision after the market closes Dec. 11.
    The S&P 500 isn’t the only index affected. Several other benchmarks will be rejiggered to accommodate the car maker, as well as any deletions from the S&P 500.
    Tesla, for example, is the largest weighted stock in S&P’s completion index, a benchmark tracking all U.S. stocks except those in S&P 500, and will have to be removed. Any stock taken out of the S&P 500 will trigger its addition back into the completion index, as well as step downs into S&P’s mid and small-cap benchmarks.
    State Street’s Mr. Bartolini said at least five of its exchange-traded funds will have to be rebalanced as a result of Tesla’s addition, including the biggest ETF in the world, the SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF, and its growth-focused ETF, the SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 Growth ETF.
    Tesla’s inclusion “will require a fairly numerous amount of trades,” said Mr. Bartolini.
    global-investing/2020/12/01/tesla-sp-500-2
  • Janet Yellen supposedly Biden's pick for Treasury Secretary
    @wxman123 The "strawmen" are John Kerry and Al Gore whose individual hypocrisies have nothing to do with the factual accuracy of climate science or the threat level climate change poses. In fact, any hypocrisies they reveal make a stronger case for government regulation to reduce emissions, not a weaker one. Human beings are flawed hypocritical animals that break unwritten rules all the time unless there are laws governing them that are enforced. 80% of evangelicals voted for a president that has broken almost every biblical commandment. And how many rightwing preachers and GOP politicians flout their own religious and government rules all the time, getting divorced, having affairs, cheating on taxes, claiming to hate socialism while accepting government bailouts, etc.? In other words, the planet's rapidly warming climate doesn't care whether John Kerry is a hypocrite or not. Laws must be put in place to make sure that emissions are reduced, including Kerry's.
    Regarding "despite dire predictions the earth's climate has over the past century warmed less than 2 degrees (probably closer to one degree)" You act like these are small numbers, but in the realm of climate science they are huge. From the previous article "We now know that 2 degrees would be calamitous: Major cities in the equatorial band of the planet will become unlivable.” In the Paris Agreement of 2015, 1.5 degrees was deemed a safer limit. At 2 degrees of warming, one study estimates, 150 million more people would die from air pollution alone than they would after 1.5 degrees." And while that is prediction of the future, the current change has already had a major impact, already creating thousands of climate refugees from places with flooding or droughts and famine and in the U.S wildfires: https://npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2018/06/20/621782275/the-refugees-that-the-world-barely-pays-attention-to
    But the fact is, I believe you know already the science is true and that the future impact will be major, and not just on "sea otters." You just don't care. This is not new untested science. There are now many decades of proof behind it.
  • Bond mutual funds analysis act 2 !!
    wxman123,
    PIMIX is still a good fund but when I owned it I like the way it was. Since PIMIX is so huge the managers had to compromise and own more HY + EM + lower the distributions and still behind. PIMIX ranked at 78 in category in 2019 and 52 in 2020. The best risk/reward in bond land was in securitized. I'm never concerned about outperformance, it's what I do.
    JAVSX is a small fund where the managers can be flexible and use their best ideas.
    The question as is always what investor you are, goals and style. You need to do your own due diligence to suit your needs
    ==================
    dtconroe,
    I am willing to revisit usage of funds like VCFIX/VCFAX as a fund that was considered one of the safer, less riisky funds, prior to the crash, especially when you look at its relatively smooth performance track since the crash. When a reputable brokerage, like Schwab, is willing to put it on its Select fund list, I tend to give that fund more "benefit of the doubt" than funds like IOFIX, DHEAX, and SEMPX, which had terrible crash performance
    If you look at 3 years prior to the crash and compare VCFIX,IOFIX,SEMMX,PIMIX (link) you see the following:
    1) SEMMX+IOFIX had the best risk/reward with Sharpe+Sortino.
    2) SEMMX had good performance annually over 5% with very low SD=0.9.
    3) IOFIX had double the performance with reasonable SD=2.6
    4) VCFIX had good risk/reward and beat PIMIX
    March 2020 changed is all.
    I don't invest based on crashes just as I didn't after 2008. There are investors who see danger while I see an opportunity (chart).
    But I understand what you do and it suits your style.
    HOBIX is another fund with good risk/reward since March 2020 see (chart).
  • Bond mutual funds analysis act 2 !!
    10 years is too long. PIMIX was great until 01/2018 but its AUM got much bigger than 5-6 years ago, the managers had to look outside their best ideas in securitized and now more HY and EM and the yield is now at 4%.
    For mostly special securitized and still lower SD you can use JASVX. 2 of the managers are from SEMMX but this fund performance was much better in March 2020 than SEMMX,PIMIX,VCFIX and good YTD. I know it's new but the managers aren't. YTD (chart)
    I like and own JASVX but it is not exactly the same type of fund as PIMIX at this point. Also not sure I see PIMIX doing so bad outside of this year (still up 4.6%) and last. Agree that the bloat won't allow "secret sauce" outperformance going forward, but still can be a good fund. Definitely watching closely. My concern with JASVX is it's outsized performance this year. I have a rule that when you see a fund outperform that much you need to expect that it could underperform just as badly, like IOFIX. Put differently, I'd tell my elderly mom it's fine to park a good chunk of her savings in PIMIX, not so sure about JASVX. But being the bond master I'm interested in your take on this.
  • Janet Yellen supposedly Biden's pick for Treasury Secretary
    @wxman123
    The idea that there is not another side to the climate debate is a real issue,
    Sure, there is another side of everything, just not a side that exists in the realm of rational scientific study in the case of climate change. One can still believe the earth is flat if one likes or that Jesus walked with the dinosaurs. I suspect though that climate science denying posters like you who in my experience always claim they’re nature lovers and real experts on science and it’s just that the libtard lame stream media and a global cabal of thousands of climate scientists have everything wrong—I suspect deep down you don’t really believe the climate science denial you’re espousing. Deep down you know the science is true but just don’t care and figure I just want to make more money any way I can living exactly the way I always have and no one no matter how much scientific evidence they provide is going to tell me I’m wrong. Climate science denial is merely an expedience, a means to an end of business as usual, of preserving the status quo and all of the profits that supports, regardless of the environmental consequences.
    You have setup a classic strawman argument. I never denied climate change nor the science surrounding it. In fact, I've conceded two of your main points, i.e., that the earth is warming and that human activity is probably a significant contributor. Now, will you concede my main points, i.e., (1) the earth's climate is constantly changing independent of human activity and always has been? (2) No one knows what direction the earth's climate will take in the future independent of human activity? (3) despite dire predictions the earth's climate has over the past century warmed less than 2 degrees (probably closer to one degree)? (4) John Kerry lives on an island despite alleged concerns that it will fall into the sea in his lifetime (J/K)? We can disagree about my other main point, i.e., that there is probably little we can realistically do to change human activity enough to prevent additional modest increases in climate over the next century without causing substantial damage to the environment and people in other respects? This is the real and fair debate among knowledgeable people, and to deny it makes you the ignorant one. Some honest and good people do care about an entire industry and its workers being told to shut down. If your brother, son, daughter or best friend made their living as a coal minor or working an oil rig I think you would see this point. I doubt you know any of those types.
  • Embrace Disruption With ARK Next Generation Internet ETF
    hard to believe anyone would kill the goose that laid a $10 billion dollar golden egg
  • VGENX Vanguard Energy
    Just ran across this short M* Energy Industry report dated 11/10/20. It discusses some factors that impact energy sector investment prospects.
    STOCK STRATEGIST INDUSTRY REPORT
  • Janet Yellen supposedly Biden's pick for Treasury Secretary
    @wxman123
    I do not and cannot infer anything about or from your name, but I can see from your laughable frets and snark about teen gas siphoning and Kerry's properties --- not to mention the single most boggling thing I've read on this site, 'Over time one thing I've learned is that when academics put all of their resources into fixing a supposed problem the cure is often worse than the disease. Covid response is just the most recent example of this phenomenon' --- that I simply must seek out your science show, or is it weather?, on Newsmax.
  • Bond mutual funds analysis act 2 !!
    10 years is too long. PIMIX was great until 01/2018 but its AUM got much bigger than 5-6 years ago, the managers had to look outside their best ideas in securitized and now more HY and EM and the yield is now at 4%.
    For mostly special securitized and still lower SD you can use JASVX. 2 of the managers are from SEMMX but this fund performance was much better in March 2020 than SEMMX,PIMIX,VCFIX and good YTD. I know it's new but the managers aren't. YTD (chart)
  • VGENX Vanguard Energy
    The upstream segment of energy got hammered this year. Looks like there may well be some daylight ahead for survivors, especially with vaccines on the way. So, attached my seatbelt and bought a little FANG in late October (YOC = 5.61%).
  • Janet Yellen supposedly Biden's pick for Treasury Secretary
    @wxman123
    The idea that there is not another side to the climate debate is a real issue,
    Sure, there is another side of everything, just not a side that exists in the realm of rational scientific study in the case of climate change. One can still believe the earth is flat if one likes or that Jesus walked with the dinosaurs. I suspect though that climate science denying posters like you who in my experience always claim they’re nature lovers and real experts on science and it’s just that the libtard lame stream media and a global cabal of thousands of climate scientists have everything wrong—I suspect deep down you don’t really believe the climate science denial you’re espousing. Deep down you know the science is true but just don’t care and figure I just want to make more money any way I can living exactly the way I always have and no one no matter how much scientific evidence they provide is going to tell me I’m wrong. Climate science denial is merely an expedience, a means to an end of business as usual, of preserving the status quo and all of the profits that supports, regardless of the environmental consequences.
  • Embrace Disruption With ARK Next Generation Internet ETF
    @BenWP, I've NO idea of course, it's just a feeling but I think Cathie's issue may be that she wants a partner that thinks like an innovator, see's the future possibilities and not one who only is in it for how much money they'll be making. She also like the whole "open" feeling of things and maybe thinks this was underhanded. No clue.
    A couple of articles hint at that. One is a Nov., 18th Barron's article saying that she might lose control of ARK. I was able to read it on Fidelity's site while getting quote info on ARKW. The other is this Institutional Investor article on her thoughts related to Tesla. It offers a lot more color on the individual. Sorry, that's all I've got.
  • Bond mutual funds analysis act 2 !!
    Over the last 10 years the best performance and Sharpe would have been delivered by PTIAX and PIMIX, and with no down years. Hard to recommend others when we have these (agree PIMIX is not doing so great lately, so will need to watch).
  • Janet Yellen supposedly Biden's pick for Treasury Secretary
    @wxman123 You are confusing scientific facts with opinions. The planet's rapidly warming climate doesn't care whether you're a Democrat or Republican or whether I'm a "elitist" in your opinion or not. But then again, it is well known that facts have a liberal bias. Climate change isn't a small threat. It is an existential one.
    Says you based on what you believe. And, you are an elitist not because of your politics but because you belittle other points of view. The idea that there is not another side to the climate debate is a real issue, maybe even an "existential" one.
  • Bond mutual funds analysis act 2 !!
    image
    I agree that BASIX is pretty good, MNCPX looks better when you look at performance + SD.
    Schwab have 2 recommended Multi funds JMSIX,VCFIX and I think they are not as good the others on my list. TSIIX is clearly better as a generic fund. PTIAX is another good one specializing in securitized and Munis. If I wanted to use riskier fund I would go with HSNYX over these two. It has much better performance for 1-3 years and lower SD
  • Primecap Funds Getting a Nice Boost Today on BB News
    I own 100 share of BB and when the shares fell from $57 to $5 I stopped picking stocks. Those shares sits there in my account reminding me how humbling investing can be.
    If I understood the world of "put and calls" I might attempt to learn another lesson, but I'm afraid that too would not end well.
    Thanks @msf for humbling me further. I usually don't need any help.
  • Janet Yellen supposedly Biden's pick for Treasury Secretary
    @wxman123
    \\\ yet there is not a shred of proof that any of these dooms day predictions are going to come to pass or that anything we can (reasonably) do will prevent them. California has been through horrific droughts over the years...yet this year's forest fires are "proof" that the worst is upon us? There have been devastating hurricanes for as long as history itself, yet because this year was notably bad, yes, must be global warming? As I said, climate change is real and, although still debatable, I believe humans are likely responsible for the small change in temperature over the past few hundred years. The best science seems to support that much. Beyond that, live your life but don't ruin others by fear mongering over ifs and maybes. The environmental damage caused by windmill farms right now is far worse and real compared with the imagined terror they were built to prevent. The same is true with respect to solar panels, electric cars (did you think lithium batteries jumped out of the ground and into your Tesla?), etc.
    You really don't keep up, do you? Not deeply, not honestly. Shoot. And someone who writes so well and thinks so clearly, too. Shoot!