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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Escape Plan
    Hi Sirs...
    Maybe too late to get out now. Old_skeet snd catch22 post good investing monthly commentary/strategies. Maybe others posted good guides to follow if retired /closed to retirement. I am so glad following many others advise and place mom retired portfolio into conservative last year, 35/65. She lost very little past few months. I got out after Ted got out in ~ 2019.
    I think we will see seesaw patterns next 4-6 weeks /much volatility until everything open up again/slow recovery. Not everything is working currently even CDs so low yields. You can argue stocks are getting cheaper now and these maybe good vehicles to buy moving forward. Corp Bonds not doing well because companies have no revenues going forward and may not be able to pay their creditors.
    If you feel unease perhaps consider place at least 40-60% of portfolio divided in incomes based products [corp bonds/munis/US Tbonds]. Rest of portfolio divided evenly in cash and stocks. You may not loose much on downs days but may not go up if indeed recovery is on the way. Once you see there us indeed recovery 3 -6 months from today perhaps start slowly buy more equities by then.
    Stocks /market maybe lower 4-5 weeks from today, but could be much higher 4-5 years from today
    Maybe another easier lazy approaches maybe redistribute bulk of your portfolio into Tdf 2015 and cash. let it ride by itself, not much worries.
    If you have schwab or fidelity, maybe reasonable to visit their cpa/investment advisors then possibly make up/draw up new escape plans after
    On other thought, maybe a great buyer market imho if you have 15 yrs left.
  • Escape Plan
    ...At some event level, is there a tipping point? That whatever I can get in CDs is good enough? OMG, just look at the available rates. Investing in CDs would be like shooting yourself in the foot, eh? I checked out a not-so-new-anymore thing in Canada: TFS. Tax-free savings accounts. But that animal is designed for people who have every other conceivable base covered. They were offering less than 1%.
  • Escape Plan
    Our friend Junkster always touted the importance of having predefined "exit" criteria. He was/is a day trader so he watches for instabilities typically in price movements of what he calls "tight channel" funds. If he sees them, he exits the trade.
    Others like Meb Faber practice trend following ... when price drops below say the 10-mo running average, they exit their position, either to cash or something (thought) safer.
    So curious if any on the board practice, in disciplined fashion, such techniques?
    And, perhaps even more curious of whether buy-and-hold investors, especially retired ones, EVER think of exiting. Or, is it always just about re balancing?
  • IOFIX - I guess it works until it doesn't
    @MikeW. The fund's thesis was that senior non-agency RMBS debt once considered toxic was now much more credit worthy because: 1) borrowers now fully entrenched in their homes, 2) home values now exceed money owed ... more so each month due to both appreciation and debt paid down, and 3) record employment.
    The last two arguments have been crushed by the credit tsunami brought on by CV-19.
    I have to assume the fund sold-off its most liquid holdings to meet redemptions ... look how well that worked out. If the fund can hold on long enough, the promise of a strong dividend will attract new buyers, perhaps enough to cover any continued redemptions.
    The legacy owners were as much attracted to its low volatility as they were to its performance. (Reminds me a bit of Berkowitz's Fairholme Fund of 2000's versus 2010's.)
    Long run still think RMBS will be OK, but can't see a correction that makes legacy holders whole again.
    Would appreciate other thoughts. But right now, I don't see it possible.
    Of course a blind man should have seen the threat coming in early March, even sooner, which makes me worse than blind.
  • Massive Carnage In The CEF Space
    UPDATE with a focus on PCI & PDI
    PIMCO CEF Update | It's 2008 Redux
    Summary
    ° The PIMCO UNII report showed some modest progress on coverage and UNII levels.
    ° Obviously, the traditional looks at this report are less important given what is happening in the markets and with these funds specifically.
    ° We expect distributions to be maintained in most of the taxable bond CEFs from PIMCO and that the muni funds are investable for the first time in years.
    ° Most funds earned their distribution in the month according to NII production with small shortfalls in the others. Nothing concerning.
  • Retirement Strategy: New Investing Paradigm May Change Dividend Growth Investing Forever
    I would tend to agree with his thesis and have begun to transition my portfolio along those lines. I am for the most part a 'dividend growth investor' holding perhaps 15-20 individual dividend paying securities of the buy-and-hold type and not as trading vehicles. I am evaluating each as I struggle to determine which will hold together as we move to this new investing market. In both the back of my mind as well as the forward looking view is which of these will my children view as worthy and which will be deemed dumb old dad stuff. Why did that goof leave us with this mess? Fun times.
    Specific examples: Energy Sector I used to hold a number of MLP's but I've sold them all off. I now only hold EPD, primarily a midstream natural gas distributor. Lately I've mentioned toying with taking a trading position in XLE as I believe those companies have been excessively oversold. But primarily my future interests lie in the solar and alternative energy direction and this is where my investment dollars are headed.
    The QQQ's - All things Internet or the Internet of Things a force not to be denied. Nearly everyone, everywhere has their face buried in a screen of some type (the sad reality) and how much of it is streaming services. About a month ago I mentioned consideration of taking a position on ViacomCBS premised around their streaming services. Analysts thought they were undervalued at $34 after having dropped from $60 something. A merger and owner Sheri Redstone were the main culprits precipitating that drop. I took a position at $32. It dropped further to $30 and I sold but continued to watch. Today it sits at $12 something and I'm not sure it's down falling. More research I guess. But still nearly all things will be online focused and why I'm watching the QQQ's like a hawk.
    I still prefer a regular flow of monthly income but if it becomes one of capital appreciation so be it.
  • Old_Skeet's Market Barometer ... Spring & Summer Reporting ... and, My Positioning
    @Old_Skeet Thanks for sharing your thoughts. I currently have an order in that will do some rebalancing within my Mixed 1 Pot. That order will increase the % of that Pot invested in PFANX somewhat. But, I am also currently planning to DCA a few cash $'s into PFANX over the next few weeks. Its good to hear you think it looks like a long term winner at this point in time.
  • Massive Carnage In The CEF Space
    At the end of January the advisor for my retirement funds asked me if I'd be comfortable with a 17% drawdown in return for a chance at equivalent higher returns. I said yes, but I too was really not thinking that my portfolio (then about 57% equities) would decline precipitously. Not sure how I would answer the question today, nor how financial advisors are going to have to alter their advice. Maybe in hindsight this period won't feel like a game changer, but it certainly does now. FWIIW, no advised me to get into Alpha Centric.
  • Old_Skeet's Market Barometer ... Spring & Summer Reporting ... and, My Positioning
    Hi @davfor, Thanks for stopping by and asking for my thoughts on PFANX. I have owned this fund in the past. My answer is, though, in a question form. What is there not to like? It is selling off its 52 week high by 16%, has a yield of 5.85%. and carries a rating of 5* from Morningstar. MFO rates it in their system as a risk level 2 fund with an overall composite rating of 5.
    Generally I position cost average into new positions; but, with an open to buy on the income side of my portfolio it could become a full position purchase in the near term.
  • Retirement Strategy: New Investing Paradigm May Change Dividend Growth Investing Forever
    This opinion piece has shades of @rono in it....and includes 3 specific investment ideas....
    The unprecedented decline in consumer spending might signal an evolution of long term investing for retirement.
    Value companies tend to be mature and rely on continuous consumer purchasing to continue paying dividends.
    As this pandemic lags on, the investment dynamics might evolove for younger generations.
    https://seekingalpha.com/article/4334815-retirement-strategy-new-investing-paradigm-may-change-dividend-growth-investing-forever
  • Coronavirus 'good scenario' could be 20% of small businesses fail
    "The former head of the Small Business Administration under Barack Obama hailed the arrival of the coronavirus stimulus package, but warned of catastrophic outcomes for a large number of American small businesses.
    “I think we are going to lose a lot of small businesses here,” said Karen Mills on Yahoo Finance’s The Final Round. “There’s always small businesses on the edge. You know, this is clearly going to push some of them over.”
    According to Mills, currently a Senior Fellow at the Harvard Business School, small businesses have just around 27 days on average in cash. Restaurants have even less, with 17 days of cash on average. And if you run out of cash, Mills said, "you're dead."
    Article link
  • Bond mutual funds analysis act 2 !!
    Not much talk about tax loss harvesting, but I did just that last week by selling PTIMX.
    I'll now look at BMBSX as a replacement during the 30 day wash period.
    Investors who manage taxable investments should have a list of similar funds for just this purpose.
    Thanks for pairing these funds @FD1000.
  • Massive Carnage In The CEF Space
    And I'm still failing to see your point. His client's can see the portfolios you refer to and can judge for themselves whether to stay or go. He's under no responsibility to share them publicly with non-paying interested parties such as yourself much like you or I.
    Hopefully we all formulate our portfolios in accordance with our own tolerance for expectations in line with the risk we're comfortable with taking. If I, or he and/or his clients failed to see this event coming we're in good company:
    Mohamed El-Erian: 'We Did Not Prepare for Something As Severe As What We’re Facing’
    Surely a drawdown seemed to be coming but I doubt that very few figured it to be this massive. Similarly, I would venture to guess that very few expected the unusually large gains seen in their portfolios in 2019. It works both ways. My point is that there's no reason to rub peoples faces in the mess on either side of the fence and that's how I read your post.
  • Bond mutual funds analysis act 2 !!
    PTIMX YTD=0.1%....BMBSX YTD=0.5% and its bond rating is much higher.
    For 1-3 years PTIMX has better performance.
    It depends on what you try to achieve.
  • Old_Skeet's Market Barometer ... Spring & Summer Reporting ... and, My Positioning
    As of market close March 27th, according to the metrics of Old_Skeet's stock market barometer, the S&P 500 Index remains extremely oversold with a reading of 175. This is on the high side of the barometer's scale. A higher barometer reading indicates there is more investment value in the Index over a lower reading.
    This past week, the weekly short volume average increased, a little, from 59% to 60% of the total volume for SPY. However, the VIX (which is a measure of volatility) declined from a reading of 62 to 54. This is good as the stock Index's valuation gained ground during week moving from a reading of 2305 to 2541 for a gain of 10.2% but has a decline of 25% from it's 52 week high. With this, the Index remains in bear market territory.
    From a yield perspective, I'm finding that the US10YrT is now listed at 0.68% while at the beginning of the year it was listed at 1.92%. With the recent stock market swoon the S&P 500 Index is currently listed with a dividend yield of 2.29% while at the beginning of the year it was listed at 1.82%. As you can see there is a good yield advantage for the stock Index over the US Ten Year Treasury at this time. With this yield advantage, I'm favoring my equity income funds on the equity side of my portfolio as I'm investing more for income generation more so than capital appreciation being retired. And, I feel my equity income funds presently offer me greater total return going forward, more so, than most of my bond funds.
    I also feel that the stock market is oversold; but, not so much for bonds. It seems bonds are just now starting to look more attractive due to the sell off some have received this past week due to liquidity factors. According to my advisor, with whom I speak with weekly, the good stuff is still getting sold to cover margin calls as those margined are short of cash. For some asset classes, that are thinly traded, there seems to have been a liquidity crunch which has created downward price pressure. This for some investors could mean opportunity. And, now that I have a near full asset allocation in equities I have now begun to shop on the income side of my portfolio. Some funds that are on the income side of my portfolio that I'm seeing value in along with opportunity are FLAAX ... FRINX ... and, JGIAX.
    My three best performing funds this week were all found in the growth area of my portfolio. They were LPEFX +16.51% ... PGUAX +14.04% ... and, AOFAX +12.87%.
    Thanks for stopping by and reading.
    Have a good week ... and, I hope all goes well for you.
    I am, Old_Skeet
  • Coronavirus Dividend Cuts and Suspensions
    Regarding Boeing, it's quite possible that the company is just using the virus as a cover for eliminating its dividend. Sure, it put on a brave face in January ("Boeing CEO says it will keep paying its dividend despite Max crisis").
    But it did that by choosing to stop 737 production (thus "saving" cash), rather than cutting its dividend and using the cash to keep its supply chain in place. Now with the virus Boeing has the perfect excuse for doing what it should have done in the first place, suspend its dividend.
    It had exhausted its credit lines. "According to AFP banking sources, the aircraft manufacturer drew on the full $14 billion credit line it only just secured from banks last month". It had negative shareholder equity (-$8.6B) at the end of 2019. It couldn't have sustained the facade much longer, virus or not.
    From The New Republic, December 23, 2019, Boeing Axes CEO as Company Hits New Heights of Self-Denial
    https://newrepublic.com/article/156092/boeing-axes-ceo-company-hits-new-heights-self-denial
    Literally everyone The New Republic has approached on the vexing question of why Boeing keeps coughing up dividends throughout this fiasco has said the same thing, using almost the exact same words: Boeing has been extremely effective at pacifying Wall Street. Throughout this nightmarish year, Boeing’s stock has remained rock steady and may yet end the year with a modest gain. “Investors”—“people” even—“rely” on those dividends. If Boeing slashes or suspends its dividend, it will send “shock waves” throughout Wall Street.
    From the NYTimes, December 16, 2019
    https://www.nytimes.com/2019/12/16/business/boeing-737-max.html
    At the very moment Boeing announced it was ceasing production of its most important product, the company took steps to meet Wall Street’s expectations. As it announced the shutdown on Monday, it sent a simultaneous news release announcing a regular quarterly dividend for shareholders.
  • Massive Carnage In The CEF Space
    I think you missed my main point. If you use his services he has 3 portfolios for you to select from, the funds/ETF/CEFs/whatever in each and all the trades he does. So yes, you do know his portfolios in detail.
    Going to cash with these portfolios and/or what other managers do? I doubt many do it because most managers don't have this flexibility, after all, you pay them to invest your money. Over the years I looked at many mutual funds and from memory, I remember Romick with FPACX at 30-40% cash and Eric Cinnamond in 2008-9 (can't remember the fund) was over 50% in cash.
    I don't know any fund that invests at any given time so much in cash.
    But, I can do what I want and it's the first time I ever sold everything. It was a great move I will remember for many years to come and probably saved me about 25-30%.
    I did sell in the past 20-40% but never that much.
    My situation has changed too, I'm retired now so protecting my capital is very important.
    So, maybe you should say good for you. I love when other investors are making money and making great moves.
    Since I'm flexible I can own any fund at any given time and since last week I'm mostly in HY munis. Why do you need to see my portfolio at all times? if you know my style (2-3 funds) and I said in January this year and several times after that I owned HY Munis and the 3 funds I like are NHMAX,ORNAX,OPTAX and the rest are in Multi and I mentioned IOFIX as the best one, you don't need to be rocket scientist to know that I probably own 2-3 funds out of these 4 funds.
    In the last 1-2 days, I also said that since last week I'm in again mostly in HY munis, which funds do think I have? really?
  • Fed Lifeline Shields Bond Funds Teetering on Brink of ETF ‘Hell’
    This contents of this article may be behind a firewall if you press on the link. The following excerpts provide a general sense for its contents:
    The Federal Reserve’s unprecedented step into U.S. corporate bonds helped cure many of the massive dislocations in exchange-traded funds -- and may have saved mutual funds from a similar fate.
    After prices for the biggest fixed-income funds held in a kind of dazed stillness during the worst of the sell-off -- presumably because the bonds they owned simply weren’t trading -- net-asset values on some of them dropped precipitously earlier in the week as their outflows forced sales on a frozen market.
    The steep declines were beginning to mirror prices reached in fixed-income ETFs, which were already trading at deep discounts to their underlying securities. Faced with $149 billion of redemptions so far in March -- after not seeing a monthly outflow since January 2019 -- mutual funds were forced to sell their holdings into a market caught in a cash crunch.
    However, the Fed’s pledge Monday to buy investment-grade credit and certain ETFs helped halt the slide in mutual fund net-asset values and sparked a rally in higher-rated debt. That’s largely due to the fact that fund managers now have a willing buyer on the other side of the trade, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.
    “Mutual funds dodged a big bullet by not having to unload bonds into a market with no buyers,” said Eric Balchunas, senior ETF analyst. “The Fed has now brought liquidity, and so they will get to avoid the ‘hell’ we saw ETFs in for the past month.”
    The pain had just started to spread to mutual funds, which were initially able to satisfy redemptions by burning through cash and their more liquid securities, according to Kingsview Wealth Management’s Paul Nolte. The net-asset values began to drop as the fund managers were forced to try and liquidate harder-to-unload holdings into a market with few buyers -- but the Fed announcement broke the cycle, he said.
    “They’ve stepped in, and we’re now finally starting to see a little bit more of a normal bidding process in the market,” said Nolte, a portfolio manager at Kingsview Wealth Management. “We’re probably a week away from a normally functioning market. It’s going to take some of these funds a while to work their way back to where they used to be.”
    https://bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-28/fed-lifeline-shields-bond-funds-teetering-on-brink-of-etf-hell