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Retirement Strategy: New Investing Paradigm May Change Dividend Growth Investing Forever

This opinion piece has shades of @rono in it....and includes 3 specific investment ideas....
The unprecedented decline in consumer spending might signal an evolution of long term investing for retirement.

Value companies tend to be mature and rely on continuous consumer purchasing to continue paying dividends.

As this pandemic lags on, the investment dynamics might evolove for younger generations.


  • I would tend to agree with his thesis and have begun to transition my portfolio along those lines. I am for the most part a 'dividend growth investor' holding perhaps 15-20 individual dividend paying securities of the buy-and-hold type and not as trading vehicles. I am evaluating each as I struggle to determine which will hold together as we move to this new investing market. In both the back of my mind as well as the forward looking view is which of these will my children view as worthy and which will be deemed dumb old dad stuff. Why did that goof leave us with this mess? Fun times.

    Specific examples: Energy Sector I used to hold a number of MLP's but I've sold them all off. I now only hold EPD, primarily a midstream natural gas distributor. Lately I've mentioned toying with taking a trading position in XLE as I believe those companies have been excessively oversold. But primarily my future interests lie in the solar and alternative energy direction and this is where my investment dollars are headed.

    The QQQ's - All things Internet or the Internet of Things a force not to be denied. Nearly everyone, everywhere has their face buried in a screen of some type (the sad reality) and how much of it is streaming services. About a month ago I mentioned consideration of taking a position on ViacomCBS premised around their streaming services. Analysts thought they were undervalued at $34 after having dropped from $60 something. A merger and owner Sheri Redstone were the main culprits precipitating that drop. I took a position at $32. It dropped further to $30 and I sold but continued to watch. Today it sits at $12 something and I'm not sure it's down falling. More research I guess. But still nearly all things will be online focused and why I'm watching the QQQ's like a hawk.

    I still prefer a regular flow of monthly income but if it becomes one of capital appreciation so be it.
  • VDIGX seems to have held up admirably through this excitement.

    Grocery stores are hiring lots of people.

    I don't think people are interested in cocooning for the rest of their lives. We might have to wait for a vaccine before people start getting antsy to be out and about. And there might be fewer options when they do.
  • Howdy folks,

    I'm of the school of 'owning a piece of the broom'. For years, I've tried to own companies that I did business with and that paid a dividend. Examples are my utilities such as CMS (2.8), DTE(4.2), T(7.0), VZ(4.7). And as a secret that I'm sharing again, I've been all over NCV (normally around 10 but up to 17.9) for years.

    As for allocation, cripes, the kid pretty much went to the mattresses after 'the Ides of November'. Note that this is also when I had the Serenity Prayer tattooed on the inside of my eyelids so whenever things get too crazy I can just close my eyes.

    Since then, I've continued to tamp down our portfolios. Wifey in particular, is very conservatively invested. At the bottom recently, she had only lost 8% [note for the record that she's still very, very pissed]. So this was a victory. [don't tell her about her Roth IRA]. Otherwise, things are good.

    That said, a lot of my 'going to the mattresses' has been moving money overseas via int'l and emerging mkt bond funds (PREMX, PRSNX, RPIBX) at Price while adding TRAOX, PRJPX, and Matthews funds MAPCX, MCHFX, and MATFX).

    And of course, as usual, the kid is playing the precious metals in various and sundry ways. feh. SLV, SILJ, GDXJ, CEF, and several penny silver miners.

    and so it goes,

    peace and flatten the curve,

  • @rono Of your listed bond funds above, I own only PRSNX and am reasonably happy with it. The other two? I owned PREMX during the foreign bond boom, after 2009, and exited several years later. PREMX and RPIBX look like dogs to me. Can you say more about why you are using them? Thank you.
  • Howdy Mark,

    Wife and I are both at Price with our rollover IRAs. I went this way months ago and have let it ride. My bad. My recent buys were at Matthews. Also, we all need to reevaluate our intl holdings. Listening to Ian Bremmer yesterday about the virus and he's saying we will have it easy compared to South America, Africa, India, etc. They are going to get crushed. Ouch.

    Take care and be careful my friend,

  • A number of company are suspending their dividends including Boeing during this crisis. Wonder if this continue in near term until recovery takes hold ?

    VDIGX, VIG, and PRDGX are solid choices. VDIGX has a healthy exposure to health care sector that helped in 2008. Same strategy is also working this year by slightly leading S&P500 index.
  • India - the whole country is in lockdown for 3 weeks (until Apr 14)
  • Hi Crash,

    Both PREMX and RPIBX were bought years back as part of an overall diversified allocation. I added PRSNX and back around the Ides of November when I was taking a couple of units out of equities. Wife and I are both at Price with our Rollover IRAs with mine being a brokerage account. Between the two accounts I've got bits and pieces here and there. What I'm watching right now is the impact of the virus on most everything. Most of my current play in that regard is in Asia. At Price I added TRAOX and a smidgen of PRLAX for watching. With my brokerage account I'm hitting Matthews with MPACX, MCHFX and MATFX. Otherwise, I'm still heavy on cash and playing the precious metals in various ways - hard, soft, juniors, oh my.

    I'm thinking about taking a nibble in Europe and watching the crisis play out.

    and so it goes,

    peace and flatten the curve,

  • @rono appreciate the very thoughtful, thorough response. Sounds like you're "sitting pretty." That's great.
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