Thanks for all of the great comments. I own 11 of the funds in the 50 Funds to Consider for Defense article including TMSRX, GAVAX, COTZX, DRSK, and SWAN. I like it that my portfolio does not fluctuate much.
It is true that COTZX has raised its threshold for equities which makes it less defensive that it was earlier this year. For me, COTZX is attractive because my equity allocation is only 26% so I am willing to take on more risk and like that COTZX will increase allocations when the market falls. Had they not increase the thresholds I might have purchased more. I also like combining TAIL, SWAN and DRSK
I will be researching some of the other funds in the list in the near future.
Kind Regards and Safe Holidays
Charles Lynn Bolin

nice smart article
https://humbledollar.com/2020/11/that-sinking-feeling/

FD1K is a trader not an investor. Enough said.

MWTRX is a good fund but GIBLX has a better record for 1-3-5 years.
Both are not funds I use since I'm mainly a bond investor in the last several years and their past performance (6% average for 3 years) will not happen in the future.
I'm also not impressed by LT record, DODGX had a great record years ago but now it trails the "stupid" index SPY for 10 years already
BTW, I used to be at 80-90% equities until several years prior to retirement where I change gradually to more bonds.

Can you please explain your comment? Are you saying that you won't buy a fund with good performance because it can't keep up? Not sure how you can be confident that a newer fund will outperform established winners. I have substantial positions in both MWTRX and GIBLX, a very big fan of the latter.

@bee, thank you. Very timely indeed. Countries who able to control the COVID-19 pandemic are likely to move their economy forward, and to positive GDPs.

November 13th Episode:

Semi-month update for limited funds
Observations for one month as of 11/14/2020:
Rates for 5-10 year Treasury went up in the last month
Bonds: Surprisingly, it was good for all the above funds. Several funds in Multi, Non Trad, HY muni, EM, Bank Loans, HY, Proffered made over 1%. Even higher-rated bond funds were up too.
Stocks: did well but QQQ was down after a very strong YTD
My own portfolio
In the last week of October I sold most of my portfolio for the third time this year. When VIX goes above 30-35 and both stocks+most bonds categories are going down it’s a good sign for me to sell. I bought back (IOFIX,JASVX) at 99+% at the beginning of the month. YTD: so far it's the best risk-adjusted return I have ever had.

Concerning CTFAX the fund earlier this year changed its baseline equity allocation substiantally. During the spring swoon it started at 10% and increased as the market decline continued. Around July of this year, the prospectus changed so that 50% is the lowest equity allocation. I immediately sold, since IMHO the fund is not that different from a 50%-70% allocation fund, and will suffer the same losses that those funds would in the next market downturn.

Mr. Cinnamond just dropped a note, letting me know that they'd succeeded in getting placed on Schwab. No-load, NTF with a $100 minimum.
Assets have been growing slowly, and they're nearly $20 million according to Morningstar. They had a surge of buying during the spring panic but the rebound has forced them back to the sidelines. At the moment, about 25% small cap value, 25% T-bills and 45% cash. Mr. Cinnamond reports that "we continue to find value in areas that carry elevated career risk for most managers, like energy. So we're keeping busy even though small caps on average remain expensive, in our opinion." Up about 16% YTD (pretty much first in its category) but only 0.3% in the last three months (pretty much last in its category).
As to energy: 24% of the fund's equity exposure is energy compared with 2% for its peers. The biggest position is Helmerich & Payne. The firm owns a fleet of oil drill rigs. Natural Gas Services Group, which rents and services compressors, is the second largest energy holding.
As ever,
David

Just a head's up. We wrote about a potentially game-changing development early in the summer: the SEC had agreed, in principle, to allow an operating mutual fund to be repackaged whole as an ETF. A number of firms have launched ETF clones of still-operating funds, but the Guinness Atkinson decision was to move two of their funds intact into an ETF format. That move would allow them to substantially reduce expenses and marginally increase tax efficiency.
I talked with the head of Guinness Atkinson early this week, and he says they're close.
Today they launched SmartETFs Sustainable Energy II ETF (SULR) which is a clone of Guinness Atkinson Alternative Energy (GAAEX) which Morningstar puts in the "international small-mid value" box ... a fine assignment give-or-take the fund's special mandate, 33% US equity stake and growth orientation. In any case, the plan is to launch this ETF now, finish the conversion of the mutual fund into SmartETFs Sustainable Energy I early in 2021 then immediately merge the two.
By mid-December, they anticipate converting Guinness Atkinson Dividend Builder (GAINX) into an active ETF. The hang up has been "a thousand thoughtful questions and comments" from the SEC. They're at the point that the SEC is asking them to put specific dates (one of which is December 12) into the prospectus on file. They take that as a good sign.
And, before year's end, they anticipate launching SmartETFs Advertising Technology ETF.
GAINX deserves more attention, so this is a good thing for the firm and for investors. Similarly, this might offer a lifeline to other small mutual funds whose managers are capable but whose expense structure - much of which is dictated by the fact that it's classified as a mutual fund under the '40 Act - makes them virtually unmarketable.
For what interest that holds,
David

Had a long talk with Ms. Geritz last week. Wonderfully grounded person. Ms. So will join her on the four-star New World fund, which is primarily emerging markets. She made two arguments about the hire: (1) she's brilliant, why on earth wouldn't I ask her to join us? And (2) she has strengths distinctly complementary to my own.
There is no immediate plan to launch a smaller company / smaller country EM strategy but, five to ten years out, it would be nice. For now, they'll continue hunting for the highest quality businesses with market caps over $1.5 billion that they can find.
Assets are coming in, though slowly. Ms. Geritz still hasn't paid herself and won't until the firm is financially self-sustaining. I should imagine that that contributed to Mr. Engelmann's hiring.
We'll profile the smaller of her two funds, Rondure Overseas, in December.
For what that's worth,
David

From an email I received today from Rondure Global Advisors:
Dear Investor,
We are pleased to announce Rondure Global Advisors recently added two industry veterans to the team. Lydia So, CFA joins Rondure as a portfolio manager for the Rondure New World Fund (RNWOX) after having spent the past 15 years with Matthews Asia, managing portfolios since 2008. She will have a secondary focus on developed markets outside the US. Karl R.S. Engelmann, a 27-year industry veteran, also recently joined the Rondure Global team as a Senior Vice President of Client Service and Business Development after having spent the past 18 years with Cambiar Investors. He will be responsible for maintaining client relationships and building new relationships in the institutional, bank trust, and retail channels for Rondure.
Said Rondure Global Founder and CEO, Laura Geritz, CFA, “We are thrilled to have two incredibly talented industry veterans join Rondure at such an exciting time in our growth as a firm. Lydia brings tremendous depth of experience in international and emerging markets and shares a similar investment approach that will greatly enhance our quality of research and strengthen our team. Likewise, Karl brings similar depth to the business side of the firm with significant experience in building lasting relationships across all channels. Both Lydia and Karl will be an integral part of the continued growth of the firm and I am excited to work alongside both of them.”
Ms. Lydia So shared, “I am thrilled to join this great organization alongside high caliber people in such a collegial environment. Laura and I share the same investment philosophy and passion for uncovering opportunities anywhere in the world. I believe that an active, all-cap, unconstrained approach is to key to generating long-term success. I look forward to contributing to Rondure and driving long-term results for our clients.”
Mr. Engelmann stated, “I have a great admiration for Rondure’s long-term and disciplined investment approach in finding quality compounders and in the firm's unwavering commitment to clients to deliver a consistent strategy over time. I look forward to helping with Rondure’s continued growth and developing great long-term relationships with our clients.”​
Please click here to read the full release. If you have any questions, please feel free to contact us.
https://www.rondureglobal.com/documents/rondureglobal-pr-20201112.pdf
Sincerely,​
Crystal Gourley
Head of Sales and Client Relations
Rondure Global Advisors
136 S. Main Street, Suite 720
Salt Lake City, Utah 84101
801.736.8555
[email protected]
The objective of both the Rondure New World Fund and Rondure Overseas Fund is long-term growth of capital. ​
RISKS: Mutual fund investing involves risks and loss of principal is possible. Investing in foreign securities entails special risks, such as currency fluctuations and political uncertainties, which are described in more detail in the prospectus. Investments in emerging markets are subject to the same risks as other foreign securities and may be subject to greater risks than investments in foreign countries with more established economies and securities markets. ​
An investment in the Rondure Funds involves risk, including loss of principal. An investor should consider objectives, risks, charges, and expenses carefully before investing. To obtain a prospectus containing this and other information, visit www.rondurefunds.com or call 1-855-755-3337. Please read it carefully before investing.
​Wasatch Advisors is not affiliated with Rondure Global Advisors.
​
Rondure Global Advisors and Wasatch Advisors are not affiliated with ALPS Distributors, Inc. Rondure Funds are distributed by ALPS Distributors, Inc. ("ADI"). Crystal Gourley and Karl Engelmann are registered representatives of ADI.
​RON000339 exp. 11/12/2022

I never promote must have of anything. Each investor should do whatever they feel comfortable about. I'm a trader for 20 years with a great track record. I'm not your typical trader, I'm trading mutual funds based on momentum and good risk/reward. My trading habits are a lot faster now than 10-15 years ago.
MWTRX is a good fund but GIBLX has a better record for 1-3-5 years.
Both are not funds I use since I'm mainly a bond investor in the last several years and their past performance (6% average for 3 years) will not happen in the future.
I'm also not impressed by LT record, DODGX had a great record years ago but now it trails the "stupid" index SPY for 10 years already
BTW, I used to be at 80-90% equities until several years prior to retirement where I change gradually to more bonds.

@FD1000
A short track record is not one of my "must haves". A long successful history is also never a sure thing going forward, but a fund like MWTRX continue to impress since 1998.

Roth money is often mentioned as the last pool of money that one should draw from.

If you often spend more money in your early days of retirement, would you not want to draw on Roth vs traditional to not realize the income for tax purposes?

I personally agree that taxes matter. I presently try to manage my taxable withdrawal verses tax free withdrawals to stay below (or at) the 12% tax bracket. Roth withdrawals have the advantage of being a tax free withdrawal.
Even if one does not need income (equivalent to the 12% threshold) it seems to me that Roth conversions (up to the 12% threshold) make good sense as well. They my be the lowest rates we ever experience going forward.
For 2020 the 12% threshold:
Single = $40,125
Joint = $80,250
H of H = $53,700

@FD1000

I'm not a long term holder but a trader and avoided the big losses of March 2020.

Were they really big losses?
If you had instead, not sold and just held your positions the draw down for JASVX was 6% in March of 2020. By May of 2020 you would have recovered from that loss without timing the market.
Had you been taking monthly withdrawals, those withdrawals would have been impacted slightly over 2 months. Having a 3-6 month cash position for withdrawals would solve that problem.
To be fair, IOFIX and SEMMX have yet to recover. Owning these two funds (that exhibit deep draw downs and slow recovers) may not the best choice for those seeking "yield with safety". I learn this the hard way owning THOPX.

JASVX - Hindsight is a great thing when you can look back until today :-)
I have used PIMIX until 01/2018, SEMMX for most of 2018 and then IOFIX in 2019+2020. HOBIX,JASVX are funds I started using in 2020.
The above are all mentioned on my thread (link)
JASVX - at least one of the managers came from SEMMX but it did much better than SEMMX. I love fresh new funds where the managers can do better.
These funds can have very good risk/reward for months, even years, until markets are volatile and why I exit. VIX > 35-40 is a good indicator of that.

Interesting Week:

The ten worst-performing stocks this year through November 8 were up an average of 23% on Monday and Tuesday!

cws-market-review-november-9-2020

It is fascinating to analyze RPG and RPV vs FXAIX over the last 14+ years and the shorter periods of your choosing:
http://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/fund/chart.action?t=fxaix
Weighting issues aside (plug in RSP to see that dynamic delta), value just gets hammered with any crashes, outperforms growth otherwise for the most part or at least keeps up, but the 09 and 20 crashes --- everyone but me knows these were close to on the same day???? --- crippled value.
Big ups for value the last couple months. Odd. Wonder if it lasts.

Bought GOLD on 11/9

There’s a growth vs value chart in the link that I find fascinating. It shows that as of 11/11/20, on a one-year basis, the growth fund IVW has outpaced the value fund IVE by close to the extreme for the last 20 years. A spread of 34.2% . (!). No thoughts on when that might revert.
The Capital Speculator
What happened today? The markets never move in a straight line.