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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • 12 Bond Mutual Funds and ETFs to Buy for Protection
    In this stressful time, which cries for serious and thoughtful information exchange, why MFO is being cluttered with garbage like this is completely beyond my comprehension. It echoes the performance from the very top of the present administration: let's keep on chattering about how everything will be just fine very soon, and keep up all of the ridiculous happy-talk. Unbelievable.
    Ego, more than likely. "If I keep on shouting, maybe somebody will notice me". Again, following the example from the top.

    People deal with stress in different ways. That’s what you’re seeing OJ. Nobody’s diminishing the dire straits the nation finds itself in. Some folks want to keep buying as markets fall. Nothing to make you forget about the 15-20% week’s loss in your IRA than placing a bet on a new pony or two. Some people drink or turn to entertainment. Since the board is dedicated pretty much to financial matters, you’ll find it here - the good investment stories, the bad ones, and everything in between, even though we know that the health crisis vastly overshadows those pursuits.
    I watch or read 4, 5, 6 hours news daily - a real junkie, always been. Bloomberg’s on a lot. Usually catch both the ABC & CBS network wrap-ups evenings. A bit of CNN and MSNBC. Overall, I’ll give them high marks on this one. Good objective reporting and advice. CNN had a hellova good discussion the other night with several top medical people along with the deliberate David Gergen, a veteran commentator with DC experience I’ve always respected. But a lot of people refuse to listen because the “news” networks have for so many years saturated the audience with sensational overly hyped “man-bites-dog” stories designed to pull in high ratings so that when the crisis of our lifetimes comes along, many dismiss it as just another sensationalized episode that will be over in a couple weeks.
    Shopping today in an area supermarket the folks I encountered seemed oblivious to what’s going on. Bemused that anyone was concerned about the C Virus, which is progressing northward toward them. I don’t know how typical that is. A lot of people here have taken this seriously and likely are staying away from stores and other places people congregate. So, the ones I met are likely atypical - but do represent a certain element. I suppose only when our Governor declares a lockdown in maybe another week and / or their loved ones take ill will they face up to the situation.
    Unfortunately (perhaps fortunately) this isn’t a political discussion board. My sense from the news I digest is that there’s a lot of blame to be placed on our national leadership for getting a late start in this, ignoring the seriousness early on and misrepresenting certain facets of the evolving situation even today. When you fire the competents who are willing to stand up to you and surround yourself with say-nothing incompetents, than these eventualities are likely to occur. So I’m angry. Am I gonna waste my time rolling around in the mud with the “other side”? No. Got more than enough to worry about right now and deeply concerned about many friends and loved ones spread across this vast land - many of whom I’ve been in touch with.
    God bless California and New York. God help us all.
  • When to start buying
    ...... Just trying think, for the moment, about some comparisons. This thing is unprecedented, yes? (Other than the bubonic plague?) The London Blitz:
    When in doubt, stop and make a cup of tea. Eventually, this thing will be behind us. Rono's words make sense. Can we see the light at the end of the tunnel, yet? Even if we can, do we know how long the tunnel is?
    https://d29k3dcgpah9r8.cloudfront.net/54d6c5deebacc0c815ef9f59aa29fc0d_500
    At some point, these days will be in the past. THEN, we can assert:
    "...Now, this is not the end. This is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning."

    There will truly need to be a response by the world's governments that is Marshall Plan-like, in order to recover. (That help was offered to uncle Joe Stalin The Terrible, but he refused it.) But the US is not pre-eminent, the way it was, right after The War. An emphasis on public welfare, not private profit, will need to happen. Like all of those alphabet-soup FDR programs. Let governments everywhere reclaim their purpose, SERVING THE PEOPLE. Then profits will follow. Because we'll never get rid of markets. Because they are useful, when REGULATED.
  • IOFIX - I guess it works until it doesn't
    @linter. Good job. The signs were there last week based on their past performance ... the fund never goes down! So, when down 7, it signaled something was wrong since less liquid assets are hard to price. But, I figured in comparison to core bonds and PIMIX, still AOK. Still processing, but I think I'd grown complacent because of how consistently good the fund performed and how impressed I was with the Garrison Point team. The rapid AUM growth certainly helped contribute this week's loss. Under normal circumstances I believe they could have handled it. But then CV-19 came. And the lack of liquidity Ed warned us about hit this shop like a tsunami. For the record, I'm still speculating since they've not returned my latest inquiry, which is first time that's happened ... they are probably all-hands-on-deck trying to right the ship. I feel for them and their investors.
  • Federal Reserve Gives Emergency Aid to Mutual Funds
    Good find. Here's the Fed's PR piece and the actual term sheet.
    https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20200320b.htm
    https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/files/monetary20200320b1.pdf
    CNBC: "However, continued disruption in the markets for state and local government debt promoted the Fed to take further action in its efforts to combat coronavirus effects."
    CNBC is saying that the reason for not having done this initially was door number 2 - that the government didn't think the muni market was sufficiently unstable. I'm not convinced, and think that doors one (poor communication) and three (reluctance to touch non-federal securities) are still possible explanations. Doesn't matter now, though.
    A key difference between the way muni MMFs and everything else is being handled is that if a loan is made to anything else, the loan rate is set at prime plus 1%. For the muni MMFs, it's just prime plus 0.25%.
  • IOFIX - I guess it works until it doesn't
    Down another 17% today.
    So, clearly, everybody running for door (including me) and no willing buyers.
    Extraordinary 5 years, until it wasn't, like Mona posted.
    Really, really hard couple days.
    Oh, boy! Am I glad I didn't invest! I was going to in my IRA, but I bought ANGLX instead. Pray for me.
  • IOFIX - I guess it works until it doesn't
    Down another 17% today.
    So, clearly, everybody running for door (including me) and no willing buyers.
    Extraordinary 5 years, until it wasn't, like Mark and Mona posted.
    Really, really hard couple days.
  • IOFIX - I guess it works until it doesn't
    @Old_Joe I don't think going into cash is an idea only for old people. There is no reason younger people should not be smart, is there?
    I feel good I protected my retirement accounts by "panicking" right about the time I received the first unsolicited email in my inbox that said "don't panic". Every time after that I received another "don't panic" email I wanted to reply "but I already panicked the first time you told me not too", but replies bounced. Then I got some "its too late to sell now" and I only hoped others getting that email didn't read it, but what do I know?
    I'm happy to report I got out of the market mostly with a loss of 7-10% in my 401k accounts. In my IRA, I'm hedging my conservative portfolio with some 2x short funds and depending on the day am sitting on a 7 - 10% loss. Above all, I decided I will make my own mistakes rather than some Harvard or Columbia MBA tell me what to do when, and I'm glad that I did.
    In my taxable portfolio, I was 33% invested because a wise person once told me, NEVER invest more than 33% of your cash. I know other people called that person stupid, I know different. I am very gradually going to start adding to funds I like in my taxable portfolio and use this opportunity to cull my funds until I keep getting back to 33% invested. Nothing like a reality check to see whether the funds you own are those you really want to hold for the long (sic) term.
    All the best to you.
  • Federal Reserve backstops muni bond market as coronavirus hammers cash-strapped states and cities
    https://m.stamfordadvocate.com/business/article/Federal-Reserve-backstops-muni-bond-market-as-15145736.php
    /Federal Reserve backstops muni bond market as coronavirus hammers cash-strapped states and cities
    The Federal Reserve capped off an unprecedented week of action Friday by extending a lifeline to cash-strapped state and local governments that are about to borrow large sums as they deal with skyrocketing costs from coronavirus safety measures./
    Situations appear getting worse now. Feds and govt may not have nothing left/no where to hide next few wks after running out money
    Any chance usa would bankrupt in few months?
    Armageddon coming?
  • How to invest in time of turmoil
    Incognito article search
    Https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.barrons.com/amp/articles/how-to-invest-in-a-time-of-turmoil-51584728227
    How to invest in time of turmoil.
    /The job of a sell-side analyst is to have a market forecast, says Inigo Fraser Jenkins, the outspoken portfolio strategist at Bernstein Research. But given the unprecedented collapse in growth expectations, accompanied by central bank interventions and the slump in asset prices, most strategists find themselves unable to price major benchmarks like the S&P 500 index. Still, he says, a strategist can provide a framework for looking at the market and probable future returns. He even says it could be time to buy stocks, if you have a two-year horizon./
  • Are Municipal-Bonds Always a Safe Haven
    Hi sir @old_joe. Perhaps you are right sir,
    If near retirement, probably need to sell everything Monday and put in 100%cash/CDs...nothing is working
    If still have many years probably continued to buy and DCA
    Maybe best time to buy new car or home in 4-6months if there is severe USA Recession
  • When to start buying
    Hi sir - thought maybe forming bottom past few days...thought we would get more upswing from today ... perhaps breakthrough at sp500 hovering around 2200 levels
    DOWS -18% For week
    When you see number deaths usa severely up and market still up/curve starting flattening, maybe good time to tiptoe in
    Energy and other sectors appear extremely cheap though
  • Are Municipal-Bonds Always a Safe Haven
    Easy, NO. look at YTD performance.
    I try not to use the word SAFE but volatile.
    When rates are going up quickly Treasuries are one of the worse categories
    When rates are going down, Treasuries are one of the best categories.
    When a black swan hits, Treasuries are one of the best categories.
    And when Treasuries are good longer term will do even better and why TLT is better than Vanguard Short-Term Treasury ETF (VGSH). See (chart)
  • When to start buying
    I will not start buying longer-term until I see the following:
    When to buy Stocks? When the price will cross 100 days moving average.
    SP500 (chart) from 2008 to 2009. See the 3 moving averages below. 100 MA(red line) is the best, not too early and not too late. For the current chart, use this (link).
    When to buy CEFs? PCI(chart). Use weekly MACD and enter when it's positive.
    When to buy Bond OEFs: PIMIX (chart). You want to see several weeks of uptrend
    With my own money, I'm mostly in cash/MM since 2/28 and at 99+% in MM since March 09. Since 2/28 I mostly trade and back to MM. I don't recommend it to others. Just wait for the above for an entry.
  • IOFIX - I guess it works until it doesn't
    In a meltdown + selling pressure, many bonds fund would collapse. Even MINT was down -1.35% yesterday. YTD, MUNI (not HY Munis) which are usually "safe" are down too much, only treasuries survived.
    2018 Deja Vu.
    But, coming out of this mess we will have plenty of opportunities and IOFIX could be one of them.
  • Federal Reserve Gives Emergency Aid to Mutual Funds
    That's a good question. These days I haven't been paying too much attention to muni MMFs because they're paying less than online bank accounts (after tax). So it doesn't make much sense to take on their additional risk. (Aside from considerations like Medicare IRMAA where gross income is what matters.)
    It's hard to read into the government announcement.
    It could be that the wording was sloppy and the intent was to cover prime and muni MMFs. (I checked the N-MFP filing for VMSXX to verify that it is not considered a prime fund.)
    It could be that the government doesn't consider muni MMFs to be at enough risk to offer this loan option.
    It could be that the government does consider muni MMFs to be at higher risk but doesn't want to handle non-federal securities as collateral for its loans.
    FWIW, the true NAV of VMSXX over the past six months has been consistently over $1, ranging between $1.0001 and $1.0004 until the past three days where it dropped to $0.9998, $0.9995, and $0.9992 as of yesterday. Fidelity's FMOXX has generally had a higher NAV ($1.0012 to $1.0017), but it too has fallen in the last week from $1.0014 to $1.0007, likewise below its normal range.
    Perhaps it is time to start watching these figures more closely.

    msf,
    Will this support VMSXX?
    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/20/the-federal-reserve-is-expanding-its-asset-purchases-to-include-municipal-bonds.html
    Mona
  • Coronavirus Selloff Leaves Just One U.S. Active Equity Mutual Fund Positive for the Year
    BTW "tiny" doesn't begin to describe CEGSX - it has $139k per Morningstar, has a 1.75% expense ratio, and charges a load.
  • Coronavirus Selloff Leaves Just One U.S. Active Equity Mutual Fund Positive for the Year
    But still leaves the 10-year return for HSGFX at -6.54% PER YEAR -- or a loss of 50%. In a bull market. And that's despite being up almost 12% ytd.
  • From the "We Have Your Backs" Department
    In stark contrast this is how it's supposed to be done:
    Stories of Hope